Top 50 Hitting Prospects from 2007: In Review
by John Sickels on Sep 26, 2011 11:30 AM EDT
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PrintTop 50 Hitting Prospects from 2007: Where Are They Now?
One thing I do every year is go back and examine my old prospect lists to see how they turned out. It takes at least four or five years to get an accurate read on a list. With the end of the 2011 season upon us, I want to go back and look at how my lists from 2007 panned out, to see what things went right and what things went wrong. We will begin today with the Top 50 Hitters, and will look at the Top 50 Pitchers tomorrow.
TOP 50 HITTING PROSPECTS FOR 2007
1) Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: Finally lived up to his potential this year, hitting .303/.376/.502, WAR 6.4. Career WAR is 11.1 with a .262/.343/.434 line. He is now the player we thought he would be, and a good example of why it takes so long to see how a prospect list really turns out.
2) Delmon Young, OF, Rays: Flashes talent, but the Rays gave up fast and then the Twins did. Career .287/.320/.425, WAR 1.5. At age 26 he still has time to correct his flaws, namely plate discipline.
3) Brandon Wood, SS, Angels: One of the biggest prospect failures of the last 20 years. Undone by inability to make contact. .186/.225/.289, WAR -2.6.
4) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies: Brilliant in all respects, career .293/.364/.505, WAR 24.9.
5) Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers: Back injuries a big issue here, and he just never got his bat going. Career .226/.305/.337, WAR 1.0.
6) Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers: Monster bat. Career .312/.370/.563, WAR 24.8.
7) Billy Butler, OF, Royals: Steady producer, career .297/.359/.457, WAR 6.4. I think the best is yet to come here.
8) Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks: Doesn't hit for average, but does everything else. Career .239/.318/.437, 104 steals, WAR 12.9.
9) Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: Career .256/.331/.473, 99 homers, WAR 11.1. As with Butler, I think the best is yet to come here.
10) Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks: Career .277/.358/.489, WAR 14.9, already excellent and has some MVP seasons in him.
11) Hunter Pence, OF, Astros: Another consistent producer, career .292/.342/.485, WAR 19.2.
12) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates: Continues to improve steadily. Career .278/.366/.460, 78 steals, WAR 13.0
13) Reid Brignac, SS, Rays: Not much with the bat. .229/.271/.324 so far, WAR 0.3. At the time his glove was considered questionable, but that's turned out to be better than his offense.
14) Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Career .273/.357/.512, WAR 25.7. Nothing to complain about here, excellent source of power and a great glove.
15) Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays: Up and down career, strong season in 2009. Career .268/.318/.468, 4.7 WAR.
16) Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers: Very strong glovework, bat power disappointing but has stolen 38 bases this year. Career .253/.316/.384, WAR 6.4.
17) Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets: Still stuck on Triple-A/major cusp, injuries have hampered him, bat just hasn't developed and can't use "young for league" as excuse anymore. .183/.250/.290 in 145 major league at-bats, WAR -0.7.
18) Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees: Still finding his way, career .284/.348/.383 in 823 PA, WAR 3.1. Still just 23 years old.
19) James Loney, 1B, Dodgers: Has held his job despite lack of typical first base power. Career .288/.346/.432, WAR 8.2.
20) Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays: Needs a change of scenery. Career .248/.307/.423, WAR 1.8.
At age 23, way too soon to give up on him.
21) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Massive power burst this year leads to MVP-caliber (WAR 9.2) season. Career .301/.355/.451, 174 steals, WAR 17.1.
22) Felix Pie, OF, Cubs: Career .249/.298/.374, WAR -0.1. Never figured out how to turn his tools into skills.
23) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks: Bounced around a bit, but figured out how to use his tools. Career .298/.350/.521, WAR 14.1.
24) Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals: Strong '10 season but disappointing this year. Career .252/.324/.435, WAR 7.9. I think he'll be fine.
25) Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies: Not a terrific hitter, but a useful player. Career .235/.357/.431, WAR 9.6.
26) Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies: Has shown some power, but overall rather disappointing. Career .236/.323/.428, WAR 3.5.
27) Elvis Andrus, SS, Braves: Still finding his way offensively, but he's going to have a very long career. .270/.339/.342, 100 steals, 10.1 WAR so far.
28) Adam Jones, OF, Mariners: Strike zone problems remain an issue, but still young enough to take a leap forward. Career .275/.319/.436, 44 steals, 8.9 WAR.
29) Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks: A very good player. Career .272/.338/.452, WAR 9.8, took a big step forward this year.
30) Eric Campbell, INF, Braves: Career stalled out due to injuries and disciplinary issues. Hasn't reached the majors.
31) Bill Rowell, 3B, Orioles: Bat stalled out in High-A. Never lived up to glowing scouting reports from early in his career.
32) Brian Barton, OF, Indians: Hit .268/.354/.392 with 1.1 WAR in 82 games on the Cardinals bench in 2008, but hasn't received another chance.
33) Travis Buck, OF, Athletics: Solid rookie performance in 2007 but then assaulted by injuries, devolved into extra outfielder role. Career .246/.320/.408, WAR 2.7.
34) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Braves: Didn't turn into the hitter expected by scouts. Career .245/.308/.407, WAR 3.3.
35) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Consistently excellent with the bat and was underrated here, I thought he would be solid but he turned into a star. Career .314/.406/.551, WAR 22.7.
36) Eric Patterson, 2B, Cubs: Useful speed with 35 steals in 575 plate appearances, but otherwise weak with the bat, .217/.294/.343, WAR -0.7.
37) Sean Rodriguez, INF, Angels: Not a great hitter, but useful due to glove. Career .229/.306/.367, but 4.4 WAR.
38) Chris Parmelee, OF, Twins: Could play regularly for the Twins in 2012. Solid in Double-A this year and has hit .343/.421/.537 in his first 18 major league games.
39) Chris Marrero, OF, Nationals: Like Parmelee, he is just now getting a major league shot, hitting .265/.292/.316 in his first 28 games. We don't know how it will pan out yet.
40) Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres: Hit for power, glove better than expected, but held back by strike zone issues. Career .255/.300/.419, 85 homers, 10.9 WAR.
41) Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets: Outstanding glove, but he can't hit a lick. Career .243/.290/.355, 93 steals, WAR 6.5.
42) Elijah Dukes, OF, Rays: A tragic waste of talent. Hit .242/.349/.421, WAR 2.6, but could have been a star if not for off-field issues.
43) Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox: Good power, 34 homers in 796 plate appearances, but contact problems crippled his chances. Career .234/.303/.421, WAR -0.1.
44) Ryan Sweeney, OF, White Sox: Has held a job despite complete lack of power development. Career .283/.342/.378, WAR 7.1.
45) Daric Barton, 1B, Athletics: Puzzling player, on-base skills looked strong in '09 and '10 but he hasn't put it together, lacks power. Career .252/.362/.378, WAR 7.2.
46) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox: I remember people telling me I was overrating him by putting him here, but it turned out this actually sold him short. Career .304/.372/.462, 82 steals, WAR 25.5.
47) Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles: Good at times, injuries have been a problem. Career .256/.338/.437, WAR 2.0.
48) Jeff Clement, C, Mariners: Had to move off catcher, injuries an issue, strikeouts, lots of things went wrong here. .223/.281/.383 in 397 PA, -0.2 WAR.
49) Brad Snyder, OF, Indians: Topped out in Triple-A. Hit .167 in 37 major league PA. Contact problems the main factor.
50) Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Dodgers: Just couldn't hit major league pitching, overriding any value from his glove. Career .176/.225/.259 in 214 PA, WAR -0.9.
Overall I think this list turned out pretty well. Factors that led to failure for several players included plate discipline/contact issues and injuries. The Top 30 are a lot more impressive than the bottom 30, although the second-best player on the list according to WAR, Dustin Pedroia, was low at 46.
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It would be great to see who missed the cut and turned out better than some guys on this list, if any at all
Pablo Sandoval
A big swing and a miss by not including him in the top 50.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
yeah, but...
In fairness, everyone had him written off because of weight and questions of where he fit defensively….except us hardcore Giants fans, of course, who were fueled more by wishes and why nots than facts.
Mr. Flibble is very cross.
Huh?
Nobody had “written him off” at that point in his careet because he never had been ranked highly on anybody’s list then. Even hardcore Giants fans had little clue who he was before the 2008 season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
hardly
Hardly. Pablo Sandoval hit .265/.309/.322 in the South Atlantic League in 2006, with mediocre-to-poor scouting reports. There was zero reason for him to even be in consideration for a Top 50 list in 2007.
by John Sickels on Sep 26, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That's my point
with mediocre-to-poor scouting reports
It was a failure of scouting not to be able to see what potential he had as a 19/20 year old in the Sally in 2006. Isn’t that what a scout is supposed to do? It doesn’t take much specialized knowlege to pick the top performers, the highest draft picks, or the guys with the loudest tools . It’s not like Sandoval was a long-term project at the point of your rankings. In less that 2 years he was in the majors – putting up a .345/.357/.490/.847 in 41 games at the end of the 2008 season and backing that up with a .330/.387/.556/.943 season in 2009.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Or maybe he just got a lot better? It happens...
by nixa37 on Sep 26, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m guessing that if you went back and looked at the reports on Sandoval, they’d say something like “this dude swings really hard; if he could somehow connect with the ball a lot more, he’d be a good player, but don’t hold your breath.”
Actually, he did connect with the ball
All the way up the minors, Sandoval never struck out that much, despite being much younger than the pitchers he was hitting against. It was more a matter that his body finally matured in his early 20’s and then his strength boosted him greatly in mid-2009 in HR power, as his body and coordination caught up with the pitchers he was facing.
I agree with John, though, what Pablo showed in 2006 was not something that would suggest that he would be a Top 50 hitting prospect, he had his worse strikeout rate in his young career, while still not walking that much and not hitting that well. I see it less as a failure of scouting and more that he just didn’t show enough up to then to suggest that he would develop so well.
And you could say that it is also a sign of success of scouting: despite his doing so poorly in Augusta, the Giants still promoted him to Advanced A San Jose. I’ve seen a lot of instances where I thought that a hitter did well enough to get promoted and yet the Giants held him back, and I’ve seen it for other teams too. Yet, the Giants still promoted Sandoval to San Jose. Statistically, there was not really much to suggest that he did well, other than his 83% contact rate at Augusta, despite being only 19 YO playing against average pitchers’ age of 21.8, basically having 3 years experience and physical development over him. That only suggests that there is something there that could develop, not that he’s a top 50 hitter, given his poor batting line. Still the Giants saw enough to promote him.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 27, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You know guys, there's a rec button
so that you don’t have to type out +1 :)
by TheBigStapler on Sep 30, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
+1 means you agree
Rec means it is a substantive, valuable, or sometimes just funny, post you want others to read.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 30, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty decent class here, some busts but some guys turned out well. I don’t think anyone expected this out of Pedroia, so having him at 46 seemed fair at the time.
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WAR comparisons
I’m still getting used to determining a player’s effectiveness using WAR. Any guidelines or benchmarks commonly used with it?
IE
0.0 is average
5-6 is good?
9-10 is all-star?
For a career, would 9 or 10 x # of years played equal a WAR for Hall-of-Fame worthy player?
Thanks for any insights.
0 is bad
5~6 is all star
9~10 is MVP level
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Depends on many different factors...even the source
For instance, using B-R.com WAR standards: 8+ MVP, 5+ All-Star, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Replacement. Fangraphs’ values seem to be a bit lower, but comparable.
As for the HOF assessment:
- Babe Ruth averaged 9.8 WAR from 1918-1934 (essentially, his status as a full-time hitter) and he’s the tops in terms of total WAR (190 & 177.7 career, BR & FG respectively).
- Alex Rodriguez has averaged 6.6 WAR since 1996 (104.8 career, BR)
- Chipper Jones has averaged 4.9 WAR since 1995 (82.9 career, BR)
One would argue that all 3 players are HOFers (well, one already is), so I think it’s difficult to peg a particular number of WAR (per season, or career) with a cut-off for the HOF consideration. Very few guys ever approach 10 WAR in a season, once we get past the 1930s (Griffey & A-Rod never have, Pujols & Aaron only once, Mantle four times, Bonds seven times, and Ruth did it ten times).
Thanks! I didn’t realize there are multiple interpretations of WAR. I suppose it could lead to minor arguments if the sources differ when comparing players and their WAR value.
When a player’s career WAR is posted, it almost seems like I need to know exactly how many years he’s played – otherwise it seems like a hard number to quantify on its own.
Don't really need to know years
WAR can tell you how valuable of a career overall a player had. You want to look at years for peak value. At 60 WAR threshold (typical HOF debate line), a player would have to average 3 WAR over 20 years (a long time to be above average, not many play 20 years), 4 WAR over 15 years (AS-caliber), or 6 WAR over 10 years (all time great).
by cookiedabookie on Sep 27, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope, here's a good set of benchmarks for full-time players
0.0 to 2.0: Bench player or below-average everyday player
2.0 to 3.0: Solid everyday player
3.0 to 4.0: Above-average everyday player
4.0 to 6.0: All Star
6.0 to 7.0: Upper Tier All Star
7.0 and up: MVP-level
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by Satchel Price on Sep 27, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
something that really stands out to me
No matter where you look on this list, for the most part the guys who have really made anything of themselves in the majors were all strong hitters for average in the minors, especially at higher levels. I’ve consistently beat that drum for quite some time, so I’m happy to see it drawn out quite clearly here.
Of course, that actually brings me to something else. Just looking at that aforementioned group (high hitters for average in the minors), there is nonetheless a fairly wide range of outcomes. The chief factor responsible for that range appears to be variation in secondary skills . . .players who lacked patience and/or power projection seem to have trended more towards holding their own in the majors, rather than excelling.
So, more concisely put:
1) If a guy hits for a high average, pay attention, he has a chance to do something in the majors
2) If he lacks tools and/or secondary skills, that “something” still might not be quite as good as what you might hope for
i think it might have been someone here
or maybe at BOTB that did a study on this
i’m not even sure if it’s so much the average per se (though, i always like seeing prospects have consistently high BABIP in the minors) but actually the strikeout rate. essentially, if you’re striking out a lot already against minor league pitchers, how on earth are you going to fare against legitimate major league pitching?
by blue bulldog on Sep 26, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think strikeouts are secondary to average in this case
Making contact is a good thing, but what you really want to see is quality contact, and that shows up in base hits. We’ve seen plenty of players with high K rates in the minors go on to be extremely productive in the majors.
On the other side of things, I often find myself skeptical of low BABIP when it’s accompanied by a low strikeout rate. That might mean a player is getting unlucky . . .but (especially over a multiyear sample) it might also indicate that a player is just getting fooled and/or getting bad swings on the ball. Call it “the Dominguez principle”, if you will.
oh i totally agree
i get very worried about a minor league prospect if i see consistently low BABIP.
however, Mike Stanton aside, i don’t think you often see people with high strikeout percentages in the minors and immediately start contributing in the majors, even with good peripheral abilities (plate discipline/power). though of course, people can definitely learn to cut their strikeout rate down from one year to the next.
by blue bulldog on Sep 26, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
depends on your definition, I suppose...
but I’m not sure it holds true.
Longoria had a decent BA, but that was dominated by his A/A+ stats. He hit .297 in AA and only .256 in AAA (only 36 games, however).
Upton only hit in the .280’s in the minors, which I wouldn’t consider a high average.
Tulo hit in the low .280s and .291 in the Texas league in his only full minor league season.
I think all of your examples range from somewhat to very favorable for me
Upton Hanley’d his first year – it was well reported that he wasn’t going full effort. When he got serious, he hit .341 in A+ and .309 in AA . . .at age 19.
Tulo hit .291 in AA in his first full pro season. By no means conclusive about his future, but I think you’d have to admit, that is a strong average in any context, and very strong under his circumstances.
Longoria only played one full minor league season, having wrecked his way to AA in his draft year alone. He hit .307 in AA and .269 in AAA – in his first full pro season. I’d say that boded well for his future success.
i think
DenverBears point is that there are always plenty of guys with better BA than the Tuloos and Longos, in the same league. once you start putting in context, then you will have to shift your first axiom. maybe, “If a guy hits for a high average, relative to league and age, pay attention….” or something like that
at least, i think that’s what DenverBears is saying
some further comments relative to Dbacks prospects, because those are the guys that i follow the most:
Upton – How much of his first year is actually “laziness/not going full effort” or just the general difficulties of a teenager in the MWL? How much of his laziness is actual, or just perception created because his results were not spectacular considering he was the 1st pick in the draft?
Krauss/Goldschmidt – Both guys showed stellar batting averages in A and A+, and Goldschmidt continued to show stellar batting averages in AA. The A+ averages are always suspect to me because of the Cal League bonus (this applies to Upton’s 341 mentioned above). This is why the strikeout percentages are more telling about their abilities, in my opinion.
Goldschmidt – I can’t quite remember, but for some reason I thought you didn’t like Goldschmidt? But under your axioms, wouldn’t that make Goldschmidt a pretty special prospect?
by blue bulldog on Sep 26, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
don't think so
In context, those players had very strong batting averages. Were there players with better batting averages? Absolutely. In many cases, they weren’t as talented.
Upton got killed in scouting reports throughout that year for appearing disinterested and not going full steam. Considering that he spent some time in major league camp earlier that year and looked awesome doing it, I think it’s safe to assume that he had all the talent + polish needed to wreck the Midwest League at that point. In fact, it was a surprise that the Dbacks sent him there, as he looked very capable of handling A+ and perhaps even AA later in the year. There was some belief that Upton didn’t really take to the slow track, and of course the next season he showed up giving a damn and there you go.
Goldschmidt struck out 160 times last year in A+. He’s now holding his own in the majors. The strikeouts don’t seem to have mattered there. I don’t recall expressing an opinion about Goldschmidt in recent memory.
Krauss still has a chance to be a player, but he doesn’t have Goldschmidt’s bat.
A low number of strikeouts only really matters to me as a positive sign if it’s accompanied by tools and/or secondary skills. Batting average alone in conjunction with it doesn’t do the trick, otherwise you may well end up with something like Alcides Escobar or (somewhat more successful, but hasn’t quite hit expectations) Howie Kendrick.
further comments
Upton – My point was to simply show that there is subjective bias involved in any type of evaluation on “not going full effort.” It’s not safe at all to assume that he had the talent + polish based on the small sample size of Upton playing in major league camp. But I mean, this point isn’t worth arguing about.
Goldschmidt – He’s a 2 WAR 1B at this point, at best. Which is basically where I would have pegged him based on his minor league track record in AA this year. The strikeouts obviously matter. Who do you know is even an above average player with a 30% strikeout percentage in the majors? He needs to bring those strikeout percentages down, hopefully to around the 25% level. I feel a little optimistic they can come down, because he showed improvement between last year and this year. But they need to come down, or else I won’t feel comfortable projecting him as anything more than a 2 WAR guy. As for your opinion on Goldschmidt, I guess that was a my bad, I’m probably confusing you for someone else.
Krauss – He’s the poster boy for why looking at batting average alone is not sufficient. His numbers are largely the same from last year, in terms of strikeout percentage and ISO power numbers. In fact, his plate discipline has improved quite a bit, despite moving to a more advanced league. The difference between last year and this year lies in his BABIP. So was last year a mirage? Or was this year a fluke bad luck year, in addition to the Southern League taking away some of his hits? Based on scouting reports from last year, I’m inclined to believe the latter. Regardless of how you feel though about Krauss as a prospect, it’s undeniable that deeper analysis beyond just his batting average is necessary to get a better picture of him as a prospect.
Anyway, I think it’s pretty obvious to me that low strikeouts aren’t the only thing that matters, just as I think it’s pretty obvious to you that batting average alone is not the only thing that matters (hence why you have axiom 2). My only point is, why would you ever limit yourself to looking at batting average, when you could look at BABIP and strikeouts, which are essentially the two components of batting average (HR per balls in the air affect it too to a lesser extent) and gain more information from that?
by blue bulldog on Sep 27, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty much what blue bulldog said...
I could have been clearer…
while the averages were fine in context, none of the three had BAs that jumped out at you and all three had other factors that pointed toward success. You could easily many guys with higher BAs in the leagues at the time and probably none of those guys have outperformed the three. A .291 in the Texas League probably doesn’t get you into the top 20 in BA.
I think I said that
All three had strong batting averages given context, but all three also had excellent tools and/or secondary skills.
FYI, Tulo’s batting average in the Texas League that year was actually 32nd. Out of the 31 players ahead of him, however, only one (Billy Butler) was younger than him, and Tulo was also in his first full pro season. That’s why I said context was important. Many of the players who were ahead of Tulo were anywhere between 23 and 28 years old.
The top 5 in Texas League BA for that year:
1. Billy Butler (age 20) – .331
2. Ben Zobrist (age 25) – .327
3. Alex Gordon (age 22) – .325
4. J.R. House (age 26, nonprospect) – .325
5. Rico Washington (age 28, nonprospect) – .323
Interestingly, Chris Iannetta (age 23) was 6th at .321, albeit in a relatively small sample.
It'd be interesting to see the not listed guys who made it.
I guess a cutoff of AA, maybe A+ or better as of the date of the article.
lol +1
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by Nnamdi Asomugha on Sep 27, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
On two of the higher profile failures
For both Brandon Wood and Travis Snider, I would suggest that they were very poorly handled by their organizations which can’t have helped with the strike zone and contact issues.
big time bustopotomus at the top there
right bravesin07?
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