Prospect of the Day: Joel Carreno, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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Prospect of the Day: Joel Carreno, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays prospect Joel Carreno looks forward to taking a role on the major league pitching staff in 2012.
Joel Carreno was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as a free agent from the Dominican Republic back in 2004. He made his North American debut with a fine season for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in 2007, posting a 2.62 ERA with a 64/13 K/BB in 65 innings, then continued to pitch well in the New York-Penn League for Auburn in 2008 (3.42 ERA, 85/19 K/BB in 76 innings). He remained effective for Low-A Lansing in 2009 (3.62 ERA, 62/29 K/BB in 80 innings) and especially High-A Dunedin in 2010 (3.73 ERA, 173/30 K/BB in 138 innings).
Promoted to Double-A for 2011, Carreno had another fine season with a 3.41 ERA and a 152/68 K/BB in 135 innings for New Hampshire, with just 100 hits allowed. Jumped up to the major league staff in August, he's looked very good in his initial exposure, allowing just two runs in his first 13.2 innings with a 12/3 K/BB.
As you can see, Carreno has been solid at every level, posting excellent K/IP ratios in particular. Nevertheless, despite his performances he hasn't shown up highly on that many prospect lists. His best pitch is a plus breaking ball; it is so good that he actually uses it too much. The pitch is generally described as a slider by scouts, although pitch f/x identifies it as showing separation between a slider and curveball. There's nothing wrong with his fastball, a 91-94 MPH pitch with some movement, but he needs to show more confidence in it and has trouble commanding it at times. He has an adequate changeup, but for the most part the fastball/slider combination is his mainstay. His walk rate spiked in Double-A, but in the majors he's thrown strikes.
Carreno's arsenal and 6-0, 190 pound size give him classic projection as a reliever, but he performed well as a starter in the minors and might get a shot as a fifth starter at some point. At worst, he'll be a solid middle reliever who can be stretched into longer outings as needed. He could earn a significant role in the major league staff in 2012.
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Seems to have flown under the radar a bit due to the Jays system and guys like Alvarez that have come up and started rather than worked out the BP.
But definitely a nice piece to have around. I would be shocked if he’s not with the Jays for the majority of next year, in some capacity.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Looks like John Farrell seconds your opinion from the AQA thread the other day.
He loves what Carreno has done from the pen and sees him sticking as a valuable piece there for next year, with potential for a rotation spot somewhere down the road.
Love Carreno’s poise on the mound for the Jays, he is not intimidated or nervous at all, has shown great control and aggressiveness. With Dustin McGowan looking better in every start and Henderson Alvarez also looking pretty solid the last rotation spot in 2012 could come down to whichever of Cecil or Drabek shows some maturity early unless the Jays sign someone like CJ Wilson in the offseason.
by transmogrifier on Sep 22, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
late inning guy, maybe
I wonder if he’ll be pitching in the 8th or possibly the 9th next year. Better to fill those spots from within than doing something rash like throwing 8 figures at Papelbon… or continuing with Rauch.
As far as the Jays rotation, I think it’s safe to say that 3-4-5 are wide open. Can’t count on McGowan for anything long-term, Alvarez probably slots in at 5 with a good camp next year with an inconsistent year. Drabek… I dunno. Cecil might bounce back, but he’s a bottom of the rotation guy too. Wilson would be a great fit at 3
Yeah no more Rauch as closer I hope.
He’s intimidating in appearance but his stuff is not at all. Carreno could be interesting in late innings if the Jays don’t resign Francisco who has had a great second half, or give the job to someone like Casey Janssen.
I’m not sure about signing a guy like Papelbon – can’t stand the guy for starters – but any improvement over this season’s late inning performance would be welcome.
Don’t count out Alvarez, he’s probably much better than just a #5. Except for maybe the last start against the Yankees he has been pretty good. No big strikeout numbers but few walks and lots of groundballs. I’ll take that any day on this team.
That said I’d also gladly take Wilson on this team too. Put him in the Jays rotation and I don’t know how they don’t seriously compete for a playoff spot next season. As I’ve said a few times recently the Jays have punted the fifth starter spot in recent years, but a guy like McGowan could be a good answer to that problem if he stays healthy. Big if.
by transmogrifier on Sep 22, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I should clarify: I’m a little hung-up on the lack of K’s and an average breaking ball – I see him being inconsistent next year. Over the course of his career, I think he has a great chance to be a very good pitcher… but I think there’s going to be some bumpiness in the soft/medium term.
No question there will be some growing pains.
I think less than with many other young pitchers though, like Drabek and even Cecil these days. Alvarez seems to have a good mix of composure and confidence on the mound, something those other two are missing right now. The reaction he gets from MLB hitters right now says a lot about his stuff.
As he gets more experience I believe the Ks will come. His fastball is too good and has too much movement, he just needs to learn how to better use the secondary stuff on major league hitters. Having him work with Jose Molina right now is a smart move by the Jays.
by transmogrifier on Sep 22, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
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