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Five Moneyball-Style Prospects for 2012

ST. LOUIS, MO - JUNE 4: Matt Carpenter #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals throws to first base against the Chicago Cubs in his major league debut at Busch Stadium on June 4, 2011 in St. Louis, Missouri.  The Cardinals beat the Cubs 5-4 in 12 innings.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Five Moneyball-Type Prospects for 2012

Here are five Moneyball-style prospects. Each player has an issue that prevents them from ranking highly on most prospect lists, but they've all performed well and could be undervalued compared to their performance level.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels: Drafted in the eighth round in 2010 from Arizona State University, Calhoun is a 23-year-old, 5-10, 200 pound left-handed hitter who destroyed High-A pitching for Inland Empire in the California League this year, hitting .324/.410/.547 with 36 doubles, 22 homers, 73 walks, and 20 steals in 512 at-bats. He's short and stocky and doesn't have the greatest tools in the world, but he was a star in college and has ripped up pro pitching so far, showing strong plate discipline with power.

Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals:
A 13th round pick in 2009 from Texas Christian, Carpenter is 6-3, 200 pounds and is a career .300/.408/.451 hitter in the minors, including .300/.417/.463 this year for Triple-A Memphis, with 29 doubles, 12 homers, and 84 walks. Scouts quibble about his hitting mechanics and give his glove so-so reviews, but he's hit at every level, gets on base, and always posts strong defensive statistics. Age 25.

Star-divide


Mike Fiers, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers: Drafted in the 22nd round from Nova Southeastern University in 2009, Fiers went 13-3, 1.86 with an outstanding 132/36 K/BB ratio in 126 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year. The 6-3, 200 pound right-hander has average velocity, but mixes in a breaking ball and a very strong changeup. He can start or relieve and has a durable arm. He's already 26, but with nothing left to prove in the minors he could help someone in 2012.

Juan Oramas, LHP, San Diego Padres:
Signed out of Mexico, Oramas had an excellent year in the Double-A Texas League, going 10-5, 3.10 with a 102/28 K/BB in 105 innings for San Antonio. Scouts say he has a solid fastball/curveball/changeup arsenal, and his numbers are strong, but his 5-10, 215 pound body lacks classic projection. He's just 21 years old but might be as good now as he's going to get. That's still good.

Clint Robinson, 1B, Kansas City Royals:
Drafted in the 25th round from Troy University in 2007, Robinson is a 26-year-old 6-5, 235 pound left-handed hitter who lacks tools. He's murdered minor league pitching, however, winning the Triple Crown in the Texas League in 2010 (.335/.410/.625, 98 RBI, 29 homers) and following that up with a .326/.399/.533 mark this year for Triple-A Omaha (with 23 homers and 100 RBI). He doesn't strike out much for a power hitter, but he's blocked behind Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler in Kansas City.

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Clint Robinson should be traded to someone who'll give him a chance

Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on Sep 21, 2011 8:15 PM EDT reply actions  

But who would trade anything of serious value for him?

Particularly given the parade of 1B guys like him who have dominated the PCL on the wrong side of their 25th birthday and flopped in the bigs. Ka’aihue, Whitesell, maybe even Brandon Allen come to mind immediately (given the Royals context and as a D-backs fan). Seems like a better use of the asset for K.C. is to keep him as insurance in case Hosmer goes down. Sucks for Robinson, but that’s the way it is – K.C. controls him.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 21, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've thought for awhile now that a Robinson/Tyler Bortnick swap would be ideal for both teams

neither way pending just blowing up either guy makes it on a major league roster for either team because of the guys in front of them.

by Dbullsfan on Sep 22, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

I still don't understand why Carpenter didn't get a look this September

I mean I guess guys like Tony Cruz are more versatile in terms of what they can do on the field and LaRussa likes to meddle, but it would be nice to see his bat in the big league some. Not that the Cardinals can really complain with how their September has gone.

by oplaid on Sep 22, 2011 1:04 AM EDT reply actions  

freese, descalso and craig

in a different situation, i’d argue for carpenter getting called up. he had a decent season and its time to figure out whether he can play at the big league level, however, freese, descalso, craig and cruz are more likely to have an impact role on the team in 2012. its more important to get at bats for those guys than for carpenter.

by dmb60614 on Sep 22, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention Tyler Greene...

He’s up but he’s gotten like 3 at-bats, despite his amazing (and BABIP fuelled) year in AAA.

by oplaid on Sep 22, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thoughts on Allan Dykstra?

He seems a good fit for the Moneyball type candidates.
As a high walk guy, and former 1st round pick, I feel he still has a chance to contribute at the MLB level.
His average has improved 3 straight seasons.
If he can get into the 25 HR range in the minors next season does he become relevant?

by BabyMets on Sep 22, 2011 3:23 AM EDT reply actions  

A nearly 34% K rate is the bigger concern. Even if he hits 30 HR, if he can’t get that K rate down he’s got a tough road. Even with his excellent walk rates.

by Cormican on Sep 22, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nova Southeastern University

Why have I heard that before? Is there another bigger name prospect from the same school? Hutchison is jumping into my head… is that right? Anyone else?

If so, that’s some decent names coming out of a school I would have otherwise never have thought twice about…

by theatlfan on Sep 22, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Drew Hutchison

From (central) Florida but a HS draftee. He was a Stetson commit if memory serves.

Michael Fiers went to Nova SE though too.

by Matt0330 on Sep 22, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nova also just popped up in John’s wrap of 2011 draftee sleepers with the Brewers’ Sean Albury. Two other kids from the school were drafted ahead of Martinez and Fiers in 2009… Miles Mikolas, yet another reliever in the Padres system with stupid numbers, and Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg, who the Braves released earlier this year.

by realitypolice on Sep 22, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

NESU

From what I understand, Nova Southeastern has excellent facilities and a strong coaching staff, particularly on the pitching side. They do seem to be putting out some players lately.

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Astros Moneyball-esqu prospects

Kody Hinze – Stocky might be too kind to describe his physique, but the kid can rake and has very good OBP skills. Limited to 1B/DH.

Nick Tropeano – Was described as having an upper 80’s FB with possibly the best CH in the draft. Dominated small school competition at Stony Brook and has shown well since be drafted earlier this summer. Sounds like a Kirk Sarloos comp.

by Raidas77 on Sep 22, 2011 12:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Tropeano was a guy that I liked before the draft. He could move quickly.

Jose Flores: Well, at least he tried hard.
Co-dad of Ryan Scoma with waelwulf, because we're progressive like that. He also tried hard.

by free f.p. #14 on Sep 22, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked Tropeano as well, I drafted him for my shadow team.

The strike out rate was a nice surprise.

Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Sep 22, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hinze is a flash in the pan. for a guy his size (round shape) he hits way too many singles.

His numbers are inflated from playing in Lancaster the majority of the season.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Sep 23, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

dbacks

A few come to mind, some of these guys aren’t “classic” moneyball guys because some have a recognizable name to many on here, but to the common fan they are relatively unknown:

Jon Mark Owings – 282/352/486 14 hr and 34 bb in only 354 abs.
limited to a OF corner and doesn’t have classic pop, but has some power, good discipline, and decent average.

Adam Eaton – 318/434/463. 10 HR, 72 BB, 36 SB
A CFer that has flown under the radar but statistically one of the best around. Great discipline, good speed, and enough pop to be more than a 4th OFer.

by ScottAZ on Sep 23, 2011 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Fiers

had an amazing season. I had read that he credits a cut fastball he learned a year ago for a lot of the success. In addition, for such a meh fastball, he’s really compiled a great K/9 in the minors. Someone to definately watch next season.

by RedHopeful on Sep 27, 2011 9:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Kole Calhoun

Is he a legit spec? Anyone think he’ll make an MLB impact?

by shully23 on Sep 27, 2011 9:06 PM EDT reply actions  

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