Top 100 Prospects: September 2011

Great numbers this season. I rank him pretty far from the Top 100 based on Adams being locked in at 1B and the Cardinals having Pujols. Not sure that’s great logic b/c Adams is posting solid numbers this year.

Haha. I had him much lower at the all star break, but I was impressed w/ how he bounced back in AA in July/August. How many spots would you drop him?

Good suggestion. I think I ranked McGuire #75 or 80 to start the season, and to some degree, he sorta moved up by default b/c people would graduate and I never thought he performed badly enough to justify dropping him.

What do you think of Molina in the Top 100? Too low at #82?

Familia is tough to rank. I think he definitely belongs in the Top 100, but I was reluctant to go too much higher just to make sure the increased production carries into next season (control, etc).

Agree Skaggs Top 10 is pretty high. There’s a lot to like, but my concern is whether he can maintain a really solid strikeout rate in the major leagues w/o having huge velocity.

Very good mention. I rank him on our Top 250 list, but I’ve been a little slow moving him up. He’s shown solid power this season, and since lots of signs point to the batting average increasing (IMO), I think his value will increase.

It’s called www.deepleagues.com. It’s a site I run w/ my friend that focuses on dynasty leagues. Our focus is on fantasy baseball dynasty leagues…mostly which prospects people should pick up.

Even though how the rankings should be affected for fantasy is a frequent conversation on our site (i.e., target upside versus proximity), the rankings come out pretty similarly. I grade based on a 5×5 system counting BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, S, K, WHIP, and ERA. I assume it’s a 23 team auction keeper league where teams have $260 to buy 23 players who they can keep for three years. Teams have 10 farm picks they can keep at $4 for three years after reaching the major leagues, and then, have the option to keep the prospect two additional seasons at an inflated price. Basically, it’s a slight derivation of the rules of the league I’ve been playing in since I was really young.

Had a tough time figuring out where to place those Rays pitching prospects. There is a lot to like, but my concern (especially w/ Archer) are the high walk rates.

Random question: is there any explanation behind a few of those Rays pitchers having higher walk rates (player development stuff, etc)? Probably just a coincidence Tampa has a few pitchers in their upper levels w/ a lot of upside assuming they can control their walk rates.

Yeah, the Padres rank pretty favorably on our list. They are building a strong system, but I think many of the Padres I listed are deserving (just not necessarily consensus) top 100 players.

Agreed. I would rank him higher than Marisnick too though he’s not far behind

I had some feedback on my site giving the exact same recommendation. Liriano has an impressive combination of speed, some power, and respectable plate discipline.

Random question: who would y’all take between Liriano, Oscar Tavares, and Eddie Rosario?

Haha. Harsh! Not saying there aren’t places the reasoning can improve, but be a little more specific re: what you dislike?

Why sh*t on a guy for making lists? I mean, all lists are suspect when it comes down to it. They obviously enjoy making them, and people obviously enjoy reading them. Hell, some people have even been reading the lists on that site for YEARS.

Gives Boegarts about a 35% chance at sticking at short. His comments were along the lines of “he’s not a bad fielder, but he’s big.” 3b is certainly possible, as is LF. He also gave him a 70 in terms of power.

Perhaps I’m crazy, but I’m not sure how one can rank an 18 with 0 professional Abs at 16, while leaving off another 18 year old who just posted the third best ISO of any 18 year old in the SAL ever (the two guys ahead of him were Mike Stanton and Adrian Beltre).

Sterling is more athletic, and deserves to be ranked higher given his pedigree, but if you’re going to let ceiling impact your rankings so much, Boegarts is probably a top 50 prospect*.

*I wouldn’t rank him there, you’ve got to have some balance between ceiling and floor.

He’s also ranked the 5th best prospect from this past draft by this list. I don’t really see much of a disconnect between the two.

Middelebrooks, maybe, but I’d take Barnes over the other two myself. I’d consider Bogaerts and Jacobs of the other guys you mention, but Swihart didn’t catch much this season and I’m waiting to see if he ends up moving off the position, and you’ve got to really love defense to have Iglesias over a college arm with Barnes’ stuff.

People liked his overall athleticism and his advanced approach to pitching. His stock is down for sure, but he has still be challenged with some aggressive assignments for his age early in his career. He could still be a very solid middle of the rotation starter.

Him and his crew snagged 3 of their favorite prospects from their old employer. In the end Rizzo will probably be the best player the pads gets in that deal; but I think they made the deal because they were happy about each prospect they got. Fuentes had a good season and should make for a great OF with Liriano in the Cal League.

That team will be defending league champs.

He has pretty decent potential with the stick, but it’s not a good sign that he looks destined for 1B sooner rather than later. He’s big with a bad lower body, not very athletic, and is likely to get slower as he adds weight in his thin upper half.

I’m currently projecting him to be at “not third base”. I think he’s on the fringes of top 100, but almost certainly on the outside looking in.

Around mid-season, I still had not dropped Castellanos much (if at all). In the chat to his mid-season list, K-Law did a solid job pointing out some of those extra concerns that perhaps lowered his value. Even assuming he can remain at 3B, another concern that started appearing more in the second half is whether Castellanos will hit for enough power to justify the high strikeout rate. At this point, I think it’s too early to discount him too much but I think his ranking on here is probably too aggressive. Maybe should rank in the 90’s at best?

Had Ramirez in the Top 100 earlier this season. Even though he never pitched terribly, his great April did not really carry into the rest of the season. Was he showing the same stuff from those April scouting reports throughout the season?

I’m a huge Olt fan. Like the combination of power and walks, and had he not gotten hurt, I think he probably would have made it. I think Olt could really increase his value next season, but at this point, I like him more as a potential breakout than a Top 100 guy.

Haha. All fair criticisms. I partially kept Heredia off the list based on lack of familiarity, even though I believe the reports on his stuff were positive.

Speaking of Pirates prospects, where would you rank Taillon? Had a tough time deciding whether he should perhaps be 10 spots lower. Even though the numbers were not totally dominating, I decided there was enough positive to keep him in the Top 20.

Nah, not a joke but perhaps a ranking that can improve. What’s the highest you think D’Arnaud could be reasonably ranked? My first thought was 25-35, but since he had a great season, maybe higher?

I think Jackson’s ranking is a little high. My concern is he doesn’t have much room to increase his strikeout totals to remain productive in the major leagues.

I became a huge Cole fan after watching the USA-Cuba game on YouTube. Watched it to see Leonys Martin, but Cole was pitching for Team USA and I was amazed at how dominant he looked against advanced Cuban hitters like Cespedes and DeSpaigne.

I watched him later that season at UCLA and he didn’t look quite as impressive. I think Top 10 is aggressive, and he could perhaps go into the 10-20 group. Honestly less familiar w/ Hultzen b/c I only saw a few basic videos leading up to the draft. I know Seattle’s recent track record w/ early picks is pretty solid, and the fact they took him #2 in that deep draft says a lot.

Thanks! That’s definitely a cool compliment.

Szczur came fairly close to making our list. Think he missed by about 10 spots.

Cheslor was a tough call…probably ranked a little bit low. He definitely scored really well on the midseason lists, but then he struggled in the second half. I think he’s definitely a solid prospect, but I wonder if some of the rankings were slightly aggressive b/c he was playing so well around the time the midseason lists were released.

What do you think of Garrett Richards at #66? I think he’s got the potential to be a solid pitcher, but I wonder if that ranking is a little too high.

Good suggestion. I put a down arrow next to Myers’ name, because to some degree, I think Myers’ high ranking is based on last year’s hype. He clearly hurt his value moving to the OF and subsequently hitting for less power than expected.

I sorta like his chances to improve, so the question is far to drop him. With most top prospects, I think there is a range of 15-20 spots where the vast majority of prospect watchers would agree the prospect can be reasonably placed. But Myers is much tougher to grade. Realistically, I think Myers could be reasonably placed anywhere between #35 and #75, depending on how likely somebody projects his chances are to bounce back.

the guys who put up numbers like Myers did last year in the MWL as a teenager tend to turn into pretty good players

barring long term injury concerns, Myers is probably going to be pretty good down the line

Good call. What about switching Bauer and Starling? Might make sense b/c Bauer went higher in the draft and he’s closer to the major leagues. Plus, I think it makes sense to at least jump Bauer ahead of Erlin, Turner, and Pomeranz.

Partially agree w/ you. He’s a player we’ve been discussing on our site for a few months (since those awesome A+ numbers started appearing). Usually, there is a reason when a prospect is not valued that highly despite solid numbers (ex: Milone’s velocity). But despite being pretty unheralded, we liked Molina based on the lack of any glaring red flag (that we identified) and decided he should be a Top 100 prospect if the solid performance continued into AA.

The solid performance clearly continued into AA even more than expected, and at this point, the question is how far he should move him up the list. There are some who see him as a clear breakout prospect deserving an aggressive ranking, but others argue he should rank lower than higher upside Toronto pitching prospects like Syndergaard. They would maybe value him around the same as Drew Smyly (a possible snub from this list?). I think he’s a clear Top 100 prospect and could easy go 10-15 spots higher (maybe swap him w/ Garrett Richards?).

.330 & 30 HR since 2000

Ryan Braun 2011
Josh Hamilton 2010
Carlos Gonzalez 2010
Manny Ramirez 2008, 2002, 2000
Albert Pujols 2008, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003
David Ortiz 2007
Matt Holliday 2007
Derrek Lee 2005
Todd Helton 2004, 2003, 2001, 2000
Vlad Guerrero 2004, 2002, 2000
Barry Bonds 2004, 2003, 2002
Adrian Beltre 2004
Gary Sheffield 2003
Lance Berkman 2001
Bret Boone 2001
Larry Walker 2001
Chipper Jones 2001
Jason Giambi 2001, 2000
Moises Alou 2000
Jeff Kent 2000
Carlos Delgado 2000

Speaking of MWL numbers, what do y’all think of Ronald Torreyes? He hit .356 in the MWL w/ solid plate discipline. I think he’s an intriguing player, but considering he’s only listed at 140 pounds, I decided to keep him off the list at this point to make sure the numbers translate to higher levels.

.446 BABIP and 50% GB percentage. A more reasonable BABIP and he’s a guy hitting ~.300 with very limited power. 6.2 HR/BIA%. Where is the power potential?