Best from the 2011 Draft Class
by tt68 on Sep 12, 2011 6:22 PM EDT
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I haven't spent much time following the current 2011 draft class. I would love to hear the feedback of the community in response to a couple of questions...
Who are your top 10 next year from the 2011 draft class?
Who has improved their stock the most since signing?
Who will make the majors next year?
Who has been a disappointment?
Who will probably play in Arizona this fall?
Figured now was a better time to ask while their play (and the way you felt about them pre-draft) is fresh in your brain!
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Ok...
For me it likely goes like this.
1. Trevor Bauer
2. Bubba Starling
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Anthony Rendon
5. Dylan Bundy
6. Danny Hultzen
7. Francisco Lindor
8. Sonny Gray
9. Archie Bradley
10. Josh Bell
As for your second question, I would answer with Kolten Wong. He has shown the ability to hit for average and power. That is quite impressive for someone who has the ability to stick as a middle infielder. C.J Cron and Sonny Gray have also been very impressive for their respective AL West drafter’s.
Who will make the majors next year? Trevor Bauer will at some point. I also expect Rendon(if healthy) to make it by September and Levi Michael has a chance if he can prove he will stick at SS. Also, Chris Reed, as a reliever better be up quick.
Disappointments? Much too early to be disappointed in anyone’s results. These guys just got done playing a yearof college baseball and many of them took a large break before signing and being allowed to play. They should be mostly expected to struggle.
The Arizona fall league rosters are out.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Nothing
wrong with this list, but that’s alot of love for Starling. It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 13, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Chris Reed, as a reliever
LAD is still planning on trying him as a starter last I heard, so he may not rise that quickly.
by blackoutyears on Sep 14, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Who are your top 10 next year from the 2011 draft class?
- Anthony Rendon
- Dylan Bundy
- Danny Hultzen
- Gerrit Cole
- Derek Starling
- Archie Bradley
- George Springer
- Matt Barnes
- Daniel Norris
- Trevor Bauer
Who has improved their stock the most since signing?
I don’t see a major riser among the top prospects. Most did what was expected of them and have sample sizes that just don’t matter. Now, you could probably find a few late round performers who have increased in value.
Who will make the majors next year?
- Trevor Bauer, Danny Hultzen, and Sean Gilmartin are the three starting pitchers who are advanced enough where they could see 2012 time.
- Chris Reed, Sonny Gray, John Stilson, et alii could see 2012 time if they are used out of the bullpen. Most of them will not be used that way
- It’s unlikely we’ll see any hitter move that quickly. Rendon has that kind of ascension potential, but he’s blocked at third so the Nats will either take it slow or move him to second. I personally want to see him stay at third. He could handle second, but he could be special at third.
Who has been a disappointment?
Same as the other performance question: I don’t think there has been major stock developments among the elite in this class.
Who will probably play in Arizona this fall?
As joegonzo said, they’re already out. I’m sure we’ll see a few other guys get moved onto rosters at some point as well.
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Seems like Panik has risen quite a bit
But still pretty early.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 13, 2011 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Not for me he hasn't
He hit fairly well in the NWL, but that’s not exactly a challenging assignment.
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Rendon
Have you either seen his medicals (highly doubtful) or know someone close that has (less doubtful) or are you just going by how he was when you scouted him.
Either way is fair but when I read your ranking I would prefer to see the caveat that:
a) you have seen the reports and have no concerns
or
b) you have not seen them but either
b1) are rolling the dice
b2) are so impressed with him that in spite of small/medium/serious risk still rank him 1st in the draft class.
I haven't seen the medicals
I have seen quite a bit of Rendon over the course of his college career though, and I saw enough during the first weekend – he played third base in that opening series – to believe that his ankle is a non-issue (at least as far as his current health, whether it’s more likely to re-injure is another question).
As for his shoulder, that is based mostly on my only reasoning. If it were a structural injury, I have to believe that it would have been surgically repaired at the beginning of the year, and Rice wouldn’t have let him play second base at the end of the season. So, I’m expecting it to be something that will heal with extended rest.
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+1
With the main names, I think we have a good grasp on what to expect (even if they don’t reach it or surpass it), but how about wild cards that lost some luster or have gone relatively unnoticed:
Dillon Maples
Kyle Smith
Bryan Brickhouse
Jason Esposito
Tyler Marlette
They really haven't done anything to change their stock
I’m not as high on Maples or Esposito as others are.
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Smith was my 2nd favorite KC draft pick after Bubba.
i don’t think he has Jason Adam’s upside, but i think the polish is good enough to start in the MWL like Adam did.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
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Some guys who I like more than I did at draft time
Brandon Drury – ATL
Zeke DeVoss – CHC
Tony Cingrani – CIN
Jake Cave – NYY (this is based on his summer league performance)
Eric Arce – TOR
Scott Snodgress – CHW
D’Andrey Toney – KCR
Jack Marder – SEA (well, I liked him pre-draft too, but I just didn’t think he’d sign)
Carter Capps – SEA (his season in the Cape erased some doubts about his health)
I’m sure there are more.
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Oops, Drury & Toney are 2010 draftees
My fault
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Toney was a 2011 draftee
drafted in ’10 but did not sign. 33rd round for Marlins last year, 14th for KC this year.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
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I initially thought so, but then glanced at his milb page and saw 2010
Thanks for clarifying.
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From the Cubs
In terms of late round guys who got in substantial playing time, OF Taiwan Easterling intrigued me. He’s raw for a college player, since he was best-known as a FSU WR and return man who attracted interest from the NFL due to his speed. However, for someone who played as little baseball as he did in college, he showed a surprisingly good bat. His speed translated in-game pretty well, especially in CF, and he showed enough pop to make me think he could develop useable power down the line.
The only major concern I have with him is that he’s not especially good when it comes to BBs and Ks. He’s struck out in almost 20% of his ABs and his IsoD is a paltry .028. I’m willing to give him a pass since he’s raw for his age and SSS, but next season should tell the tale.
If all breaks right for him, I think he could be a Szczur Lite. Maybe not as much power and more Ks compared to Szczur, but still fast and able to hit for average.
by Outshined_One on Sep 16, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
BB - how can you possible justify
springer, barnes, norris and bradley ahead of bauer? springer especially!? i’d say you were looking more at ceilings, but then you have hultzen #3?! springer has nice tools and everything, but so do a lot of guys. his swing is ugly and has more holes in it than stevie nicks has in her nose.
bauer has ace potential and there is nothing in his makeup to suggest he won’t achieve it.
I'm not speaking for Bullpen Banter, I'm speaking for Jeff Reese
I’ve made my case against Bauer a number of times. I don’t like his command, specifically his propensity to pitch up in the zone with the fastball. I think he is very polished and about as good as he will get. I see him as a good #3 starter. Baseball America may see Bauer as a potential ace, but I do not. They very well could be right and I am certainly not trying to discredit their collective opinion; we are allowed to disagree.
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i agree with you on the fb command and leaving it up in the zone; but given his track record and makeup, don’t you think he’s likely to figure it out? If you had to bet on him or springer figuring it out, which one would you take? his fb does have good movement, more than barnes’ 4 seamer. Norris has issues as well, as his 2011 #‘s indicate. I don’t even think Bradley has a change at this point. point is – they all have issues. to me bauer’s intelligence, makeup and work ethic lead me to believe he’ll get that fb down and find a way to improve command. I think his floor is prolly somewhere in the #3 or #4 range, but you can’t deny he’s got ace potential… if things go right.
by DeathSpeculum on Sep 14, 2011 3:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd take Springer
I agree that Bauer is a hell of a pitcher, but that doesn’t mean he will improve or be able to command his stuff better in the future. I just don’t see much room for improvement.
And really having him as the 10th best player in a deep draft class is hardly saying that I don’t like him. I like others more.
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Bauer/Springer
even if Bauer doesn’t improve he’s Mike Leake.
Springer is a boom or bust guy that could very easily fizzle out in AA.
Give me the sure thing
That's fine
I certainly agree that Bauer has the higher floor. I just love the package of tools that Springer possesses, and I like the progress that he’s made in refining them over his college career. I don’t think he’s as raw as he’s made out to be, but it’s no secret that I am – and have been since his Sophomore season – very bullish on him. I don’t fault anyone for taking a more conservative view.
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Sorry, a little OT
But on the topic of floor/upside, what do you think of Joe Ross?
I like him
Not much effort and good present stuff. He wasn’t my favorite prep pitcher or anything, but I don’t have any real concerns.
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Funny how Joe's delivery is so much better than his brother's
It’s like he watched Tyson pitch, heard the scouts going “That’s never gonna work in the majors” and then decided that he’d make sure his delivery looked nothing like Tyson’s.
I’m surprised it took so much for him to get signed, but he’s a very nice prospect.
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by Satchel Price on Sep 19, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh
Yeah, they’re very different prospects.
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I'm going to +1 this.
I feel the same way about Bauer. He’s going to be a good pitcher, but I don’t see future ace. It’s not exactly a bad thing to become.
Dante Bichette
Obviously he’s nowhere near a top 10 guy in this class, and it would be premature to put him in the top 100 now, but I would argue he has raised his stock by putting together a strong season in the GCL. I’m not saying he’s the bee’s knees, and I understand the limitation of GCL stats, but given the criticism the Yankees took (both from their own fans and outside observers) for the pick, he at least has shown that he can tear up rookie ball.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
As someone who criticized the pick
He has definitely proven himself this year in rookie ball. I think he is top 100 from the draft (or did you mean top 100 overall?). I love the plate discipline, but still concerned he will have to move from third to the outfield, at which point he will need to show more power.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 14, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant he's not a top 100 overall prospect
I agree on loving the discipline, and honestly haven’t heard enough about his defense since the draft to hear if anything has changed there.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
My Top 10 remain closely the same as before the draft
Top 10
1) Dylan Bundy
2) Anthony Rendon
3) Gerrit Cole
4) Trevor Bauer
5) Josh Bell
6) Sonny Gray
7) Danny Hultzen
8) Bubba Starling
9) Archie Bradley
10) Francisco Lindor
Q 2: Its way to early to definitely improve your stock but I guess Cory Spangenberg who was thought to be an over draft but given the circumstances of the pick looks like a solid pick. Sonny Gray also looked good in his debut.
Q 3: Its hard to say but given that Gray pitched well in Double-A he may be the first.
Q 4: No one really but I guess that a few people may be disappointed with Trevor Bauer but he’s fine.
As a Pirates fan I like your list. 2 players in the top five.
by Cainyoudigit on Sep 19, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
for me -
1. Dylan Bundy
2. Gerrit Cole
3. Archie Bradley
4. Francisco Lindor
5. Anthony Rendon
6. Danny Hultzen
7. Josh Bell
8. Bubba Starling
9. Jed Bradley
10. CJ Cron / Kolten Wong
H.M. : Bauer, Spangenberg, Stephenson, Reed
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 18, 2011 2:38 AM EDT reply actions
don't like Sonny Grey nearly as much as others seem to
Ultimately he’s quite the ‘battler’ but i just don’t see him ever having TOR or FOR starting stuff. back end guy for me.
Casey Kelly would be an awfully optimistic like outcome i would believe. George Springer I do like, just think he’ll K a lot with his power stroke. Bauer is falling a bit for me.
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 18, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Is that HM Chris Reed?
That’s pretty lofty for a guy who’s started very little, and I’m optimistic about his chances. I like Bradley that high. Very comparable to Shelby Miller at the same stage imo. I have Hultzen higher, but I’ve been watching him way too long to be completely objective. Maybe all these reservations are justified…
by blackoutyears on Sep 20, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
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