Thinking about Brett Lawrie
by John Sickels on Sep 10, 2011 4:04 PM EDT
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PrintIn late May, I wrote a scouting report on Toronto Blue Jays prospect Brett Lawrie after seeing him play for Las Vegas. I talked about his approach to hitting, his incredible bat speed, and his energy and intensity on the field. I also focused on his defense, and concluded that he just needed more experience at the position and that he would be a good defender at the hot corner in time. It was a very optimistic report, overall.
Lawrie has obviously been excellent in his first major league exposure for the Blue Jays. The stats are excellent, .325/.402/.667 so far, in 181 plate appearances, 13 walks, 24 strikeouts, six steals without being caught. And statistically, at least, his defense has been quite good, with a UZR/150 of 13.1. Overall, he has a 2.4 WAR already in 34 major league games.
I am interested in the observations of Blue Jays fans or others who have seen Lawrie play frequently since he has reached the majors. What do you think of his hitting approach? Are you optimistic about his glove? What about his personality? The report I wrote back in May was very positive and I'm quite glad Lawrie is playing well.
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He has definately exceeded my expectations.
His plate approach is great. He almost never swings at the first pitch and more often than not works his way into hitters counts. I expected the bat to be good but what really pleasantly surprised me was the glove. I had heard so many negative reports about his defense at third, and now watching him I don’t know where they came from. His range, arm and reaction time are amazing. He also plays as hard as anyone I have ever seen, and on every single play. As a Canadian baseball fan who grew up with hocky in his blood, it really is hard not to love what this kid brings to the field every day.
by TwoEyesForAnEye on Sep 10, 2011 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
What do you think of his hitting approach?
I like his approach at the plate. He doesn’t swing at many pitches out of the strike zone, and his eye is better than I expected. His Contact% is below average right now (78.9%), but I think that will improve over time.
Are you optimistic about his glove?
From what I’ve seen, yes I am. Extra tutelage with Brian Butterfield should help him develop at 3rd base.
What about his personality?
I find his “Come at me, bro” attitude entertaining to watch. He just doesn’t seem fazed by the situation. As well, he has matured compared to the beginning of the season from what I’ve seen on the field.
Overall, a fun player to watch, and a great player to have on the team. At age 21, the sky is the limit with this kid.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Star in making
His bat is going to be exceptional and like Dustin Ackley, I haven’t seen all his games but from what I’ve seen there’s no reason for him to move off of third.
John’s report sold him to me. I think that was the most positive report I saw of him – and at this point the most accurate one. Baseball America has been saying he needs to be a corner OF and ranked him below their top tier of prospects, which included Martin Perez.
Project Prospect completely omitted him from their Top 100 – even writing a whole piece trying to defend such a ridiculous decision – they listed guys like Weglarz and Brad Emaus and Yamaico Navarro over him – and basically hated on him. They took 2 minutes of video of him in some practice and decided he was a lazy fielder and couldn’t play third base based on that two minutes.
I think it’s important to give John credit for his optimism because it was bucking the trend.
to be fair
to be fair, there are a lot of guys I have been wrong about, lol.
by John Sickels on Sep 10, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fairer
nobody has ever been more wrong in the history of the world than Project Prospect was about Brett Lawrie.
by ayjackson on Sep 12, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As a jays fan
I am loving him so far. His hitting approach is very fundamentally sound and this year he has shown an improved eye both in the minors and majors which was a slight knock on him coming into the year. Has legit power and I would predict 20/20 seasons in his future.
His defense is a work in progress but nowhere near as bad as many predicted. His excellent work ethic and hustle have really helped him transition to 3rd. Seeing as how this is his first year at 3rd, I expect him to continue to improve and if he hits to his capability I would predict gold gloves in his future.
It seems like everyone on the team has enjoyed his intense gamer mode personality. Just watch the highlight of his first home run and watch his return to the dugout. He goes absolutely nuts with the high fives and loses his helmet. Very funny. He fits in with the rest of the fairly young team and will be at the core of this team as the Jays farm players start coming up and this team tries to jump from .500 club to a consistent 90+ wins a year club.
I am a fan of a team in the NBA, MLB, NHL, and NFL. I haven't seen the playoffs since April 28th, 2008 (1st round exit by raps). I haven't seen playoffs past the 1st round since January 26th, 2006. Stop and think about how insane it is. And depressing.
Os fan here and...
He’s hit the Orioles very well. Just check today. That said, I am really really impressed with this kid.
For a rookie, his eye looks great. And, the thing that seems really impressive is that he seems to be kind of “mis-hitting” the ball off the sweet spot of the bat, but still able to really drive the ball. He’ll get jammed, and hit the ball in on his fists, but still hit it out or up against the wall. Wow! Jays fans should be really excited over this kid!
Haven't watched his games live
but having watched highlights and from looking at his stats, he looks a lot like another David Wright.
lawrie
I’ve watched nearly all his games and here is what I’ve seen
Other than his first game, his defense has been very good. He has good range and a strong arm and can make the difficult plays when needed (slow roller to third for example).
His bat is great, he has some of the fastest hands I’ve seen and can wait on pitches a long time. He’s mainly pulled the ball so far but he can drive the ball to all fields and I can easily say he could hit 30 homers in a full season while maintaining a decent average (.280).
Like his minor league stats show he’s good on the basepaths and can steal a base when he picks his spot or take an extra base as well.
I recall you compared him to Ryan Braun, and although I don’t think he’ll be that good, I think he’ll be close.
His attitude has been good so far, he’s good with the media, and while on the field he’s definitely intense and gets amped up quickly, but so far he hasn’t come accross cocky, which is good to see.
by daman316 on Sep 10, 2011 6:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Minor correction John...
He’s actually just had 133 major league PA’s not 181.
I’ve not seen him play alot, but have listened to a good number of the Jays’ games on the radio – as already noted, he’s much better defensively than advertised; he has a strong arm, and charges ball’s well, but doesn’t have really great lateral range.
His bat is special, and his attitude/enthusiasm is a little different from what we’re used to in Toronto (George Bell and his intensity were awhile ago); he certtainly plays the game hard, but “the right way”…definite fun player to watch, and his work ethic is being lauded (may develop into an adequate 3Bman, though there has been speculation that he may still be destined to a corner OF spot).
On one broadcast, someone compared him to Ryan Braun, but a likely better all round defender when all is said and done…
Fun times ahead for the Jays…
the thinker
a buddy and i were saying he has the ‘d’ tools but it still isn’t second nature…he’s still thinking too much on every play…i think the 2nd nature will come…but he’s still thinking about what he does
has a great arm tho…overcomes thinking
and helluva hitter
regards
What is the youngest you can die of old age?
His hitting is excellent
he’s flyballing a lot of it though, but with that bat speed, almost every FB seem to carry to the wall. His patience has been very good. Takes walks, takes a lot of pitches and doesn’t swing-and-miss a lot either. His defence has been phenominal, but I’ll hold my ground on him being a good defender in the future, just because of all the reports i’ve read about his defence before this year.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Good trade?
Marcum is a solid pitcher, and is having a great season. But I think the Brewers are going to regret giving up Lawrie a few years from now.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Sep 10, 2011 7:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
If the Brewers win the World Series this year, I’m sure they won’t regret it.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
I think if they make the playoffs they shouldn't regret it
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Sep 11, 2011 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know...
Having Lawrie to replace Fielder in the lineup would help…
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Sep 11, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Everytime I hear anything about Brett Lawrie
I always think about how Project Prospect completely missed the ball on him with their analysis in March.
In their defense...
they also ranked Wil Myers somewhere in the 50-60 range before he’d played in a MiLB game, (I’m pretty sure they were the only ones to have him in a top 100) and they had been extremely high on Profar, and had him ranked 20 about a month after the season started.
Baseically- you win some, you lose some. Lawrie looks awesome so far, hope he can keep it up!
You have to go out of your way
To miss this badly on someone like Lawrie. And that’s where they go wrong. They go out of their way to miss on guys like Lawrie and Mike Stanton.
Yeah
It’s not that I want to jump all over them. There are definitely top prospects who don’t succeed and they’re simply trying to pick them out. I at least give them credit for trying as most others seem to refuse to go out on a limb. However, it would definitely appear some parts of their methodology need to be reworked.
As much as I disagreed with their omission at the time
Other lists have made as glaring or even more glaring mistakes in hindsight. For instance, this list by BP from 2005, in hindsight, looks really bad:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3773
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
EVERYBODY missed the boat!
The concensus raking of lawrie by the major lists was 42nd, before the season.
I may have had him ranked higher than anybody 14th, and to me THAT is a mistake as well. I clear, star player should have been ranked much higher.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Sep 12, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There were plenty of reasons that he wasn't in the top five last year
First, it was a pretty stacked year for prospects. Second, there were plenty of question marks with Lawrie in 2010, including his power, BB-rate, K-rate, his defensive rep and stolen base success. He proved everyone wrong this year. However, even with all the questions, people still felt he was a top fifty prospect based on his youth and scouting reports. Those who didn’t see fit to have him even in their top 100 were clearly wrong, and with little justification. Doing so is the prospect ranking equivalent of betting on a 1000:1 longshot – if you win, you look like a genius, but 99.9% of the time you look stupid.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 12, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont agree with that at all
. . . as far as I can understand it cdb :) If you thought his power was a question, i think you were just at lower level of skill in evaluating prospects, and/or, hadn’t seen him play.
I ranked him #14th, which was still too low, but I liked the age, power, hitting ability and sucess in AA at the age of twenty way more than I worried about defensive position, or steals, or any of that other nonsense – especially since steals arwen’t important and he gets them, doesn’t he?
His low ranking is really a mistake that should have been avoidable. I dont think it really has anything to with luck.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
I disagree
If it should have been avoidable, explain why. Sometimes prospects make a jump, and this year it was Lawrie. The fact is there were reasons that he was a top fifty but not top twenty prospect in the eyes of the vast majority of prospectors, professional or amateur. It was not avoidable, any more than Albert Pujols only ranking #42 on BA after his first year in the minors.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 12, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
Lets go through it shall we?
If we had a 20 year old kid who was a good enough athlete to have solid range at 3b who hit .314 .378 .565 in the Midwest League, I would rank him quite a bit higher than 42nd, most likely – that what Pujols did.
Lawrie had 250 total bases in 135 games, as a 20 year old, while playing a position in the middle of the diamond that he wasn’t suited for – and swiped 30 bases! By the way, the real reason I liked so Lawrie so much as a hitter was from seeing him bat a couple times in the futures game :) His wrists, bat quickness, and leg strength just looked like a srtar to me.
It could have been avaoided becasue somebody as ordinary as me saw it! Either that or Im going to have to consider that I may be smart occasionally.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Sensational
He’s been better than advertised. Defense, power and patience have improved over his first 100+ MLB plate appearances.
I'd say the young man can play
I’m a Yankees fan and have seen Lawrie a few times. I’ve been as impressed with him as any other newcomer I’ve seen recently. Obviously, it’s a tiny sample, but he made good contact, had a very quick bat, and made some eye-popping plays in the field. Next to Bautista, the scariest guy in the lineup…and Bautista is as terrifying as it comes these days.
by choo choo coleman on Sep 10, 2011 9:10 PM EDT reply actions
Red ass
Yes he has one. I can see him getting a few in ribs next year. I a suprised lester did not brush him back more after his antics the night before. I think he has been beamed 11 times this (majors/minors). It’s great to see the enthusiasm however he does need to mature a bit .
Bat looks great and adjusts to situation well. Very fast bat speed. Glove not so much but okay overall. Love watching him play.
Also
Since he is Canadian – he is getting the golden boy treatment in the media up here. So what may be immature is read as excitement or mistakes are jitters. Personally I do not like this as it perhaps hides what should be written possibly delaying maturing.
by goggles pisano on Sep 10, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you think of his hitting approach?
Maybe biased but it’s one of the best approaches I’ve seen. Maybe it’s because he is hitting so well but the approach is amazing. He lays off close pitches, doesn’t chase breaking balls and gets into a lot of good hitting counts. He’s been taking a lot of first pitch and teams are starting to notice that. So what does he do? Start swashing the ball on the first pitch to keep them on their toes. Kid is going to hit for a high average and you know what, with his approach, I definitely think he can have a good walk rate.
I have yet to see a weakness from him. From what I’ve seen so far, don’t pitch him in or throw high pitches because he absolutely crushes them. Keep it down and away but even then he goes the other way or takes those close pitches. Its really fun to watch his at-bats. Controlled aggression is how I would describe him.
Are you optimistic about his glove?
Gold glove caliber defense from what I’ve seen so far. I have to give you credit, your report on him earlier on his defense is what made me optimistic. You noted he had tremendous range and you are absolutely right. He looked a little rough first few games but I think it might have been because he was amped up but after that, he is making amazing plays. His arm has also improved. He used to do like a looping change-up type throw but now he is throwing lasers at 1st base. Pretty much every game he is doing something great with his defense whether thats on double plays or showing tremendous range.
What about his personality?
I LOVE IT!!! Kid is so intense and plays with so much energy. He gets the whole team pumped up. You can see it when he hit the grandslam, he was so jacked up and the whole team was laughing and having fun. Personality is never an issue with me especially if its when guys are competitive. Its only an issue if you start pulling a Zambrano or Milton Bradley but from his interviews, he seems humble and is having a lot of fun. He always hustles too (its really funny watching him run… because its odd how he runs but he runs hard… really hard). I think he’s got a bit of leadership quality as well.
Pre-mature but he is a superstar in the making IMO. Great hit tool, great power to all field, solid approach, great defense. Of course I say this from what I’ve seen which is a small sample size.
I believe you made the comparison “Braun that can stick at 3B” and that’s a solid comparison IMO
Sniderlover has it pretty much covered but I'll add my two cents.
Lawrie’s approach at the plate has really impressed me. Too many guys on the team swing like they are trying to hit a home run every time they are at the plate, sometimes even Bautista. This kid comes up and he looks like the most mature guy out there.
He recognizes what pitchers will try do to try to get him out and takes close pitches off the plate. He thinks along with the situation, for example will hit the other way with a runner on first. I really believe his primary goal is doing whatever he needs to in order to help the team to win, even if it means a simple single up the middle. A very mature attitude for a young player with his hype as a power producer.
The power and hitting skills are definitely there too. His ability to make adjustments is amazing, even within the same game. You can see pitchers trying out different areas all around the plate and they have yet to find a consistent weakness. The bat speed is tremendous and his swing is simple, that allows him to destroy mistakes by a pitcher.
His defense is the biggest surprise. He has made a couple of errors – on pretty hard hit balls mind you – but he has also made a number of outstanding plays that it more than balances out. His reactions are so quick, his range is above average and his arm is wicked strong and very accurate.
The best part might be the attitude he’s brought to the club. There had been talk about his cockiness, being a bad teammate and tough to coach. That has not been the case at all. He’s worked very hard on his defense since joining the team, there has been no indication of entitlement in his manner. I’ve already mentioned his maturity at the plate, and but the energy he’s brought to the club has been very infectious. The Jays have been somewhat of a sleepy team and he certainly gets everyone’s adrenaline going.
Some people have criticized him for his antics but he is a young kid living the dream and having a great time, and he has been very respectful of the game while doing it. Frankly the game could use more of an injection of his type of enthusiasm. Pretty much all of his critics have been supporters of other teams.
by transmogrifier on Sep 12, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
His defense has been 10 times better than I expected.
Defensive minor league reports just keep proving to be very innacurate.
Plus one million
. . . and I’m only one person. i must have said it 1000 times on here that Id trust what I see at a single ballgame or, a players basic defensive stats over multiple reports from the media, or from “scouts”. I’d put that last thing in giant quotes if they had them on my keyboard Man.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Sep 12, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sniderlover has pretty much said it all
Watched Lawrie in about twenty-five games on TV since he was called up. Hard not to gush when your a Jay’s fan, so I won’t hold myself back.
He has worked on going opposite field a lot, especially early in the count. Is fouling most of these pitches off now. Not for long though.
Incredible reaction time. Makes very good defensive plays now, often due to his raw athleticism.
Seems almost instinctual at the plate. Turns away the right way on tight inside pitches.
My comparison would be “larger version of Nomar Garciaparra”. If he stays healthy and motivated, you can tatoo “Hall of Fame” on this kids butt.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Sep 11, 2011 1:14 AM EDT reply actions
IF Lawrie's MiL defense questionable then I can't wait to see Hechavarria !
Lawrie’s defense has been a daily highlight reel … great lateral movement and surprising range … great arm with fast release when needed … inexperience only mildly noticeable … best Jay defensive 3rd baseman ever … will get better … check out one of the many at http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19052773
The above posts are indicative of the feelings surrounding Lawrie in Toronto. Shrines are being built all over the city. A Canadian kid with great athleticism and outgoing personality is gold here. He gives the hockey-player-style post-game interviews (team did great out there, etc) which endears him even more to the fan base.
At the plate: Appears to have an advanced approach – lays off pitches you wouldn’t expect from a 21 year old. Power is on full display. Speed will probably drop off as he ages.
Defensively: a work in progress. Makes great plays, but you can tell that he’s using his athleticism to his advantage. As he ages, he might be better suited for LF/RF, but he’ll be decent at third in his early-mid 20s, I think.
Personality: very intense, high motor – sort of a football mentality. That might make him more susceptible to injuries over the course of a full season. Can rub people the wrong way, but no-one has challenged him on it yet (i.e. put one in his ribs). It will be interesting to see how he reacts to that.
my impressions thus far
Overall, he just looks and acts like he belongs. He looks very confortable and not at all hesistant.
His defense is better than advertised, but he does seem a bit mechanical in the field. I think in time that he could be an above average fielder there.
So far, he’s been making the right decisions at the plate. He’s not to pull conscious, he won’t chase much, he recognizes offspeed pitches well, and will jump all over mistake pitches.
I haven’t really noticed anything regarding attitude concerns. He’s very exuberant and that might rub some opponents the wrong way. He just seems to jacked up at all times (like he’s hooked up to an expresso machine). Overall, he’s very fun to watch.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farnsworth: Start the ship, Leela. Let's just steal the damn radar dish and get back to our own time.
Fry: But- But won't that change history?
Farnsworth: Oh, a lesson in not changing history from Mr. I'm-My-Own-Grandpa! Let's get the hell out of here already! Screw history!
Farnsworth: You mustn't interfere with the past! Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it. In which case, for the love of God don't not do it!
Fry: Got it.
Farnsworth: If for example you were to kill your grandfather, you'd cease to exist.
Fry: (gasps) But existing is basically all I do.
by parrot11 on Sep 11, 2011 2:27 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
not espresso..
he apparently drinks 3 or 4 Red Bulls before every game, is what I read in an article a while back.
This must be how Lawrie sees the world while on the field.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Charley Hustle Two...
I seen EVERY at bat and EVERY defensive play the kid has had in the the Show. He is nothing short of other worldly. His defensive range to both right and left is WOW – his arm even from well outside the 3rd base line is WOW. His instincts on double plays is WOW. I swear the kid has a decade of Gold Gloves in his future.
Did I mention the kid has a bat too? WOW. He’s 21 – he’s a .300, 30+ homer, 40+ double guy NOW. It’s almost scary to think what he’ll be doing in his prime. I see a decade of: .300+, 400+, 600+ 40 homer, 30+ steals, Gold Glove excellence. Only injury or a jealous husband with a Smith and Wesson can stop him now!
In my 65 years – a good 45 of which I’ve been a baseball nut – I’ve NEVER seen the like of him. One of those very few guys who are truly worth the price of admission all on their own.
Ok, settle down
Old -timer :)
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
This might sound nuts
But I think the Jays should go ahead and Evan Longoria him, assuring he’s in town (and in Canada) for a long time. He could breathe a lot of life into Canadian baseball, and Toronto fans are more likely to get involved if they know he’s going to be around for awhile.
Amateur observations
At the plate, what is most surprising is his strike zone judgement. While he’s good on the inside edge, and at the top end of the zone, he is very good at not chasing down, and has almost preternatural judgement of the outside edge. He tends to be particularly selective early in his at-bats, and tends to take pitches on the outer third more often than pitches high in the zone or inside. Given his very good approach, I’m moderately surprised at how much swing-and-miss there is in his game. He seems to be able to drive the ball from centre-right to the left field line; and on two hit-and-run plays (iirc) he’s placed hard grounders through the right side.
In the field, he has very quick reactions at third, and great range to both sides. There have been a few plays he’s looked a little awkward on (on some balls smashed right at him he’s gotten back on his heels and jabbed at the ball; I’ve seen him dive a little beyond a ball hit to his left, and not extend far enough on a ball to his right). He’s very fast getting to his feet, and has a quick release. His throws have been accurate; he tends to drop down and semi-flip the ball when he has time; and the tendency to get under the ball in all his throws is a little worrisome – but the results are there. He makes very smart decisions in the field almost without exception, which has on multiple occasions created extra outs or gotten the advance runner. He seems to be aggressive in trying to get the double play whenever there’s a chance. On one or two occasions he’s taken throws to the bag too far away from where he’s needed to make the tag. Overall, you can see some of the inexperience at the position, but his range and reactions make him a very good fielder already.
On the basepaths, he has respectable speed and he is always running hard, and looking to take the extra base. He’s made good choices on when to steal thus far. I haven’t noted any particularly good or bad baserunning decisions otherwise.
Attitudinally, he seems to be genuinely concerned to be a good teammate, and not focused only on himself. He’s expressive and emotional, but so far we’ve only seen the positive side of that; he celebrates like anything, but doesn’t seem to pout or be upset when things go poorly. I’m not sure his personality would fit in well on every team, but he seems to be integrating well into the Jays’ clubhouse.
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