9/01 MiLB

before my football draft begins. The ISO last year was .212 overall, but there was a 70 point difference in his home/road ISO with the majority of it coming at home in hitter friendly Asheville. Yep, you are correct that his home/road splits flipped this year, but I can’t see how that is a positive thing. He’s in a hitters league but plays in one of the lesser hitters parks in the Cal, so better numbers on the road is to be expected actually. Again, there is a huge difference in the ISO in his splits, it’s over .200 in good hitting environments and in the .143 at home in Modesto. That leaves me questioning just how much power is here.

I think he could be similar to Michael Young as a hitter, so-so walk rates, solid K rates, and average or a tick above average power. I don’t see an elite bat for a 3B, much less so as a 1B.

On the other 3B’s you show rankings for, I’m curious why Middlebrooks is so low. Is it a fantasy based list where defense doesn’t really count? Big time power and above average to plus defense at 3B is an awfully good and valuable combo in my book.

I don’t feel like I’m holding his polish against him, I’m just not surprised he’s been able to hit for a strong average in A ball because of it. I’m a big believer in the AA transition, so that should be very telling IMO. I completely agree about Rockies hitters and the favorable park issue, and it’s one reason I’m not ready to fully jump on the bandwagon here in regards to Arenado’s power. I understand why you and others are, I just respectfully disagree at this time. I’m fine with him proving me wrong though.

The level of confidence you have in Arenado makes it easy to understand why you’d prefer him over the rest of the 3B field. Compared to Olt and Middlebrooks, Arenado is easily the best bet to hit for average at the MLB level. For me though, he comes in last in both defense and power out of the three. Middlebrooks obviously has the worst plate discipline of the three, but he’s also the only one that has faced upper level pitching and he hit very well against it in AA this year. Olt has by far the best walk rate and could post the best OBP even if he hits 30+ points lower in average than Arenado does.

As for the rest of names:

-I agree on the potential of Castellanos bat, it’s what had him in my top 100 coming into the season. What he did in the MWL this year was pretty impressive, especially considering his dismal start to the year. The K’s are a worry for sure though, lending credence to those that thought he had a long swing and could struggle to hit for average.

On the defensive side of things, he sort of the polar opposite of Arenado. Coming into the year Castellanos got reports that while not glowing had him as able to stick at 3B, now reports are his defense isn’t up to snuff. As I mentioned in an earlier comment these huge changes in a year’s time aren’t always reliable. I’m not giving him any better chances than Arenado at sticking at 3B or anything, I just prefer the bat for Castellanos.

-I thought I had read a few times on here that Gyorko wasn’t much defensively at 3B, though I may have been confusing him with someone else.

-Yeah, Darnell just never really stood a chance of sticking at 3B for San Diego. Maybe another team would have tried a little longer with him, but with Headley entrenched at 3B there wasn’t any reason not to move him to the OF.

-Sano’s age and size are what worry me. A kid that’s 6’3" 240ish at age 18 could easily outgrow 3B in the next year or so. His bat plays anywhere on the field, so while I think the Twins leave him at 3B for as long as possible I ultimately see him ending up somewhere in the 1B/RF/DH area. Whether the move is made because he can’t handle it defensively, because he outgrows it or because his bat progresses much faster than the glove remains to be seen.

I notice you didn’t mention either Cuthbert or Catricala. Any insights on those two?