Vance Worley of the Philadelphia Phillies (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Phillies 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Philadelphia Phillies. This list was originally published January 2nd, 2011. We will look at the Kansas City Royals on Monday, the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, and the Seattle Mariners on Friday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Domonic Brown, OF, Grade A: .337/.447/.554 in 83 minor league at-bats split between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and injury rehab with High-A Clearwater. Hitting .246/.335/.393 with 25 walks, 34 strikeouts in 183 major league at-bats. He'll be fine, he just needs to play.
2) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Grade B+: Hitting .285/.383/.422 with 10 homers, 57 walks, 92 strikeouts in 344 at-bats between High-A Clearwater and High-A Lancaster following trade to Houston Astros. Lots of walks, power hasn't fully developed yet.
3) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B+: 4.25 ERA with 62/34 K/BB in 89 innings for Clearwater, 93 hits, 1.47 GO/AO. Not a great year, ratios deteriorating from Low-A.
4) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Grade B: Traded to Astros. 3.92 ERA with 79/43 K/BB, 1.65 GO/AO in 108 innings for Clearwater before the trade, 98 hits. Pitched six shutout innings in Double-A debut following the trade. Electric stuff, still learning how to use it.
5) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B: 3.40 ERA with 169/55 K/BB in 124 innings for Clearwater, 99 hits, 0.64 GO/AO. Outstanding strikeout rate. Command still needs some work, but his stock continues to rise.
6) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B: Struggled in April but has been strong ever since, overall 3.20 ERA, 109/59 K/BB in 113 innings for Low-A Lakewood, 92 hits, just three homers. Needs to cut down the walks some but overall a fine full-season debut.
7) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade C+: Hitting .303/.329/.428, five homers, 10 walks, 63 strikeouts in 290 at-bats for Clearwater. 33% of runners caught, passed ball and error rates much better than last year. I don't like the low walk rate, but he's making progress, particularly on defense, and is just 21.
8) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .273/.345/.448 with seven homers, 28 doubles, 23 walks, 114 strikeouts in 326 at-bats for Lakewood. Toolsy, just 19 years old, but poor BB/K/AB ratio shows need for polish if he wants to succeed at higher levels.
9) Vance Worley, RHP, Grade C+: Very successful in the majors: 2.35 ERA, 8-1 record, 66/28 K/BB in 84 innings, 65 hits for the Phillies. I don't think he'll keep his ERA that low over a 200 inning season, but at worst he's going to be a fine inning-eater.
10) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 14-6, 3.03 with a 119/48 K/BB in 122 innings for Clearwater, 84 hits. He deserved more respect pre-season (Baseball America ranked him at number 25 in the system) and he should get it now.
11) Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .252/.288/.320 with 18 steals, 18 walks, 63 strikeouts in 341 at-bats for Clearwater. Effective glove and runs well, but lack of power and weak on-base skills hurt stock. Age 21, still has time to improve.
12) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade C+: 2.10 ERA with 43/14 K/BB in 34 innings for Double-A Reading, 4.50 ERA with 32/8 K/BB in 26 innings for Lehigh Valley, 2.09 combined GO/AO. Strikeouts/grounders combination should make him useful bullpen arm.
13) Josh Zeid, RHP, Grade C+: 5.91 ERA with 60/28 K/BB in 67 innings for Reading and Corpus Christi combined following trade to Houston, 71 hits. I think he's capable of better, but will end up in relief, not starting.
14) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.63 ERA with 69/42 K/BB in 117 innings for Reading, 112 hits. I keep thinking he will do something, but it never seems to happen, and the low strikeout rate is not a good sign.
15) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+: Has pitched just 3.2 innings for Williamsport in the New York-Penn League, fanning four, walking three. Obviously we need more data here.
16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+: 3.76 ERA with 143/41 K/BB in 124 innings for Reading, 106 hits. Love the K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP, but he gives up a lot of fly balls and homers, and is already 25 years old.
17) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C: .281/.340/.389 with three homers, 31 walks, 98 strikeouts, 22 steals in 416 at-bats for Clearwater. Still has remarkable tools, power has not developed yet. He has a very high ceiling. I'd give him a C+ at this point, high ceiling, still high risk.
18) Aaron Altherr, OF, Grade C: Just .211/.272/.272 in 147 at-bats for Lakewood. Sent down to Williamsport, hitting .280/.313/.435, seven walks, 33 strikeouts, 14 steals in 168 at-bats. Like James, excellent tools but still unrefined.
19) Leandro Castro, OF, Grade C: .277/.304/.481 with 10 homers, five walks, 33 strikeouts, 10 steals in 231 at-bats. See a pattern? Power, speed, horrible plate discipline. On DL since late June
20) Matt Rizzotti, 1B, Grade C: .290/.388/.506 with 20 homers, 64 walks, 104 strikeouts in 393 at-bats for Reading. Have to like the power, but already 25 years old.
There is still an intriguing system despite the trade of Cosart and Singleton, although it is clear that not all the tools guys are going to develop the way Dom Brown has.