New York Yankees 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 5, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the New York Yankees. This list was originally published December 15, 2010. We will look at the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday, the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals on Monday, the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, and the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Jesus Montero, C, Grade A: Hitting .288/.345/.441 for Triple-A Scranton, 27 walks, 79 strikeouts in 340 at-bats. Passed ball and error rates have improved dramatically, but has thrown out just 19% of runners. A weaker season than last year with the bat, the theory is that he's frustrated. They need to play him or trade him.
2) Gary Sanchez, C, Grade B+: Hitting .251/.327/.463 with 14 homers, 32 walks, 88 strikeouts in 283 at-bats for Low-A Charleston. 31% of runners caught, but has given up 26 passed balls in 55 defensive games. Just 18 years old.
3) Dellin Betances, RHP, Grade B+: 3.57 ERA with 103/53 K/BB in 93 innings for Double-A Trenton, 75 hits, 1.32 GO/AO. Looks fine to me with a few more control adjustments.
4) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade B: 3.59 ERA with 102/55 K/BB in 100 innings between 20 starts for Trenton and one for Scranton, 101 hits allowed. Like Betances, he could use more Triple-A time to refine his command but his stock remains high with me.
5) Hector Noesi, RHP, Grade B: 3.28 ERA with 25/10 K/BB in 36 major league innings, 39 hits allowed. Has done OK in limited action.
6) Andrew "The Scranton Horror" Brackman, RHP, Grade B-: 7.26 ERA with 58/69 K/BB in 76 innings for Scranton, 71 hits allowed. He is hounded by abominable, eldritch control problems, like insane flute music pulsating with a mind-bending disharmony of universal, ultimate chaos. Those who ruminate overmuch on the chthonic mysteries of Andrew Brackman's career put their sanity at risk, as their mental boundaries melt under the hideous assault of such an unspeakable waste of talent and money. Ia! Shub-Niggurath! Ia! Ia! The Black Goat of the Woods with a Thousand Walks!
7) Ivan Nova, RHP, Grade B-: 4.01 ERA in the majors, 57/38 K/BB in 99 innings, 104 hits, 1.64 GO/AO. I think he is capable of better in the medium and long runs.
8) Austin Romine, C, Grade B-: Hitting .283/.351/.381 with 28 walks, 49 strikeouts in 286 at-bats for Double-A Trenton. 25% of runners caught, other defensive numbers solid.
9) Slade Heathcott, OF, Grade B-: .271/.342/.419 with 19 walks, 57 strikeouts in 210 at-bats for Charleston. Excellent defense, some progress with the bat. Questions about makeup revived after he assaulted a catcher. Hasn't played since early July due to shoulder injury.
10) Adam Warren, RHP, Grade B-: 3.34 ERA with 82/44 K/BB in 127 innings for Scranton, 123 hits. Ratios have slipped, particularly K/IP and GO/AO, but still has a shot as an inning-eater.
11) Graham Stoneburner, RHP, Grade B-: 2.90 ERA with 41/14 K/BB in 62 innings, 55 hits, combined from three levels, including GCL injury rehab for a neck problem, 19 innings at High-A Tampa, and 29 innings at Trenton. 1.76 GO/AO. Still interesting to me if healthy.
12) David Phelps, RHP, Grade B-: 3.38 ERA with 74/22 K/BB in 85 innings for Scranton, 92 hits, 0.93 GO/AO. Missed time with shoulder injury, just started rehab assignment in GCL.
13) Eduardo Nunez, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .271/.318/.394 with 15 steals, 13 walks, 20 strikeouts in 188 at-bats for the Yankees. Should have a long career as a utility guy.
14) Brandon Laird, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .274/.303/.429 with 11 homers, 13 walks, 60 strikeouts in 368 at-bats for Scranton. Solid glove. Lack of patience is an issue that holds his bat back.
15) David Adams, 2B, Grade C+: Injured most of the year, hit .429 in 17-game rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League. Hitting .316/.366/.395 in eight games for Tampa. We need more data here.
16) J.R. Murphy, C, Grade C+: .297/.343/.457 with 19 walks, 38 strikeouts in 256 at-bats for Charleston, .259/.270/.365 in 85 at-bats for Tampa, two walks, nine strikeouts. Doing OK. 24% of runners caught, has also spent some time at third base.
17) Corban Joseph, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .274/.357/.425 with 51 walks, 79 strikeouts in 391 at-bats for Trenton. Error-prone at secod base. Interesting on-base skills with gap power.
18) Cito Culver, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .284/.360/.392 with 22 walks, 34 strikeouts in 176 at-bats for short-season Staten Island. Pretty decent numbers for a raw guy, not much power yet.
19) Brett Marshall, RHP, Grade C+: 3.98 ERA with 95/44 K/BB in 115 innings for Tampa, 119 hits, 1.73 GO/AO. Fully recovered from injury troubles, like the grounders, transition to Double-A next year will be interesting.
20) Jose A. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Awful at Tampa (8.14 ERA, 25/11 K/BB, 35 hits in 24 innings), sent back to Charleston, where he has a 4.24 mark with a 68/29 K/BB in 70 innings, 71 hits. Combined GO/AO is 0.81. Not a lot to be excited about here.
21) Angelo Gumbs, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .279/.358/.442 with 11 steals, 19 walks, 43 strikeouts for Staten Island. Strikes out a lot, but good pop with speed, very interesting double play combo with Culver.
I'm not worried about Montero, he just needs to play. The big failure on the list is Brackman, but I'm wondering if Heathcott's propensity for shoulder issues is going to end up hampering him just as much as his makeup issues. Gumbs and Culver will be an intriguing combo up the middle in full-season A-ball next year.
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Andrew "The Scranton Horror" Brackman,
mind-bending disharmony of universal, ultimate chaos.
Best laugh of the day!
apparently
they also bend his pitches to always magically endup outside the strike zone.
LOL
I think that John must have just recently seen the latest Harry Potter movie before he wrote Brackman’s review.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
nope
Nope…i have never seen a Harry Potter movie, nor have I read the books. This is an homage to Lovecraft
You Should
It was a good story.
I can't count the reasons I should stay
One by one they all just fade away
by HotSludgeSundae on Aug 5, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That raised an eyebrow for me as well
3.81 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.02 xFIP is nothing to scoff at in the AL East, and I was never under the impression Nova had huge upside. I’ve been impressed with his numbers so far.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
He passes the eyeball test too
I’ve been impressed with Ivan Nova this year also. It seems he was pretty underrated in the offseason (& this list was higher on him than many organizational listings).
generally
He seems like the a new version of Chien-Ming Wang type. stuff looks better than periphals suggest but lack a real knock out punch. (Wang also did not have particularly impressive upper minors #). Though who knows if he figure out a better 3rd pitch and/or find more consistency with his curve he might take a step foward. he does have an above average fast ball and command and seem to generate quiet a lot of groundballs.
Better FIP and xFIP then Hellickson at same age
The key for him will be the continued development of his slider. Its looked great at times (last night in particular) but without it he does not have a pitch to get swing and misses with.
Mason Williams
He’s hitting well in Low-A ball. 358/392/489, 12 BB, 30 K, 16 SB in 194 PAs as a 20 year old.
What do people think a good comp is for him? Is he a C+ or a B-? Could he match Adam Jones levels of production?
williams
Might go with B- depending on final reports. Maybe a B. That is a very atttractive power/speed/youth combination
by John Sickels on Aug 5, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Williams
heard Doug Glanville and Curtis Granderson comps
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by lard of the dance on Aug 5, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
race
in regards to player comparisons will never cease to make me laugh. at the irony, of course.
by richieabernathy on Aug 5, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
my guess is...
…it depends on how his power develops. both Glanville and Granderson are pretty athletic, but Grandy has more power by a mile while Glanville settled himself as a leadoff hitter with decent gap power in his prime
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by lard of the dance on Aug 5, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
My takes on certain prospects
…after having followed them for awhile
1) on Montero, I really haven’t heard much about if his bat/power tool deteriorated as much as his stat indicates. Earlier this season, he was at .300’s but with not much power. His power has been escalating as the season went and his July was an upgrade over other months… I believe his spurt of AAA numbers of 2010 happened in July as well?
2) Sanchez apparently showed immaturity during the course of the season. he ran into some slump earlier in the season, worsening his attitude, and it went to the extent that he refused to catch a pitcher during bullpen session and he was sent to extended spring training. But again, he’s a 18 year old in low-A. I’ve seen a lot of 18 year olds with bad attitudes and I’m hoping that Sanchez at least straightened himself a bit considering that Yankees paid up $3 million worth of bonus to him. If he’s able to understand the expectations and pressure, he should. Anyways, I like the 14 home runs for this 18 year old kid. contact has been on and off (.306 in last 10 games but horrid July) and the hope for him is to be more consistent with the bat, since power already seems to be there.
3) Betances + Banuelos: growth of walk numbers is alarming since both of them showed pretty good walk rate last year. Even more alarming for Banuelos, actually, since he has the history of showing pretty good control/command before 2011. Is he overthrowing his fastball after his velo spurt last year? I’ve heard from his first AAA start that he seems to have better control when his fastball is down at 91~92mph range than 93~95. Another theory for high walk number is that… seeing some of his starts, he loves challenging the corners, and as for 20 year old in AA&AAA, it’s really hard to be perfect all the time. Not only that, he’s been struggling toward the end of his AA stint, which makes it more puzzling for Yankees to promote him to AAA (i’ve heard cashman saying that ‘league has caught up to him’) in statistics standpoint, but I’ll trust Yankee front office decision. His secondary stuff, curve and change, have been very solid so that’s not my concern for now.
Betances…. he’s been sitting on 92~95mph and touched 98mph in his latest start, but yes, command is his issue. He’s going to have to shape it up.
4) Brackman has been… like godawful. Following his season was like viewing an ultra slo-mo of glass of water exploding, with each piece flying through the air as if there’s no gravity. In one of his recent starts, he threw like 4 innings, allowed no hits, but with like, 7 or 8 walks. I’m guessing that it’s all in his head. He showed some relatively solid control/command last year and I do recall him being soild in very limited ST appearances. If this is how he is going to end up, this will end up as an ugly gamble overall by the Yankees.
5) Nova always had great velocity, good break on his curve, oft-solid changeup, but it wasn’t until he started to use his slider that he started to rake. One evidence? Granted, White Sox offense has been bad but in last night’s start, when he struck out 10 through 7.2IP, he gathered in more swing-and-misses than he did in entire month of May! His K rate went up and BB rate went down with the advent of slider (56IP 41K’s 17BB’s, 3.38ERA). Not only that, when he first came up, he had tendencies to get shelled at around the 5th inning and deeper into pitch counts. Lately, he has been able to get deeper into games. 10-4, 3.81ERA/4.12FIP/4.02xFIP is more than what fans could’ve asked from him, and if recent numbers are of any indication, good chances that numbers will look better in the end of the season.
6) Stoneburner was one dude that I really was looking forward to previous to this season. Unfortunately, he had neck stiffness that got worse by the time he noticed was more grave than he thought, which cost him good amount of season. But fear not, he’s been pitching well in AA after coming back. On his first start, he was around 88~90mph, but his second start, he went up to 93mph. As he pitches more, I think he’ll be back to sitting on low-90’s (touching around 95, 96 when he needs to) as he was reported to last year. Yankees should send him to AFL for him to log more innings for this season, in my opinion.
7) Nunez really really really needs to work on his fielding in order to be a consistent big league utility guy. The plus with him is that he’s got strong arm, and got some pop on his bat. if Yankees decide to keep him around as utility and replacement for injured regulars, I’ll be happy
8) Culver + Gumbs + Mason Williams have been solid for SI. Williams, not in this list, has been really good with his bat, fielding, arm strength, and speed apparently (well he WAS actually the most highly anticipated player from the list anyways, with 1.4 million bonus from 4th round spot) Culver has been better with his righty swing than his lefty one, but two homers he hit has been with his lefty, in a same game. Gumbs is a guy who was known for his athleticism prior to the draft so him hitting up to how he’s done so far is pretty solid.
Since Williams number isn’t on Mr. Sickels’s post: .358/.398/.489 with 3 homers, 8 doubles and 2 triples. His playing style has been getting Doug Glanville/Curtis Granderson comps.
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by lard of the dance on Aug 5, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
Nunez
Has been ridiculasly error prone this year. it’s like he can’t get through 2 strait game without at least one E. Maybe he need to change his name to include less E or something jeez.
Nova’s last outing looks very impressive indeed and he have seem to solved his early season 5 inning woes, but then again there have been plenty of low strike out guys who suddenly came up with a random game or two of big strike outs so I’m not counting on it unless he can keep it going for a bit longer.
on the bright side
Daniel Bard’s 2007 looks almost equally attrocious if not worse.
But that doesn’t happen too often for a guy to have that bad of a season and then still bounce all the way back.
Busted out laughing
on the Brackman stuff. Great stuff as always, John.
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
RE: "Ia! Shub-Niggurath! Ia! Ia! The Black Goat of the Woods with a Thousand Walks!"
Wow.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 5, 2011 7:05 PM EDT reply actions
Zolio Almonte, Ramon Flores, Dante Bichette Jr., and Yeicok Calderon are some other interesting names. Cashman and many other GMs are reportedly impressed with Almonte.
Yeicok Calderon
is an interesting name indeed
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by lard of the dance on Aug 6, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I really like Ivan Nova.
The name that comes to mind for me is a young Freddy Garcia. I didn’t realize Nova had such a good arm, but I’ve liked what he’s shown in the big leagues. He’s tough too, and you can kinda tell he came up through the Yankee organization in a way.
Completely unrelated issue...
Whatever happened to Gavin Brooks? I don’t see any stats for him in 2011. I think he got hurt in 2010 after a great debut in 2009. Since he already had shoulder issues when drafted, all I can presume is that he reinjured it in 2010. But even a really bad reinjured shoulder shouldn’t keep you out TWO full seasons. Mystery.
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