Dynasty League, Derek Holland or Brandon Beachy
by rupertoooo on Aug 4, 2011 6:57 PM EDT
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What an amazing month Derek Holland has had. Is this the guy every publication was gushing about in 2009 or is he just on an amazing run waiting to shatter all Dynasty owners hearts. And than there is Beachy who put up videogameesque numbers in the minors and quite good numbers during his callup before his injury. So the question asks which player would you feel more secure with if you were drafting for a dynasty league.
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I'm gonna bet on "stuff"
And go with Derek Holland.
by John Black on Aug 4, 2011 7:09 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Beachy, by far
His numbers blow Holland’s out of the water, and he plays in a much easier environment. Beachy 100 times out of a 100.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
And by numbers...
I mean peripherals of course, i.e. the things that actually will tell you how he’s going to do down the road.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
For fantasy, Beachy. Real life, Holland.
The AL vs NL makes all the difference.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
For what it's worth
NL East > AL West. I drool every time I see Seattle and Oakland on the schedule
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Aug 5, 2011 11:33 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm just guessing here.
but I bet the average NL starter over the course of a year gets about 70-80 AB against pitchers. That’s a ridiculous difference.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Half those pitchers
could probably DH for the Mariners and A’s
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
if you want to see something brutal
go check these out
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2011.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2011.shtml
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
Re:
For me, it comes down to home parks. Holland has been pretty awesome on the road this year with a 3.4 ERA and 3 shutouts. At home, he hasn’t been nearly as good (5+ ERA). Texas is just a sucky place to pitch — especially if you are a lefty that throws a lot of fastballs. Even Cliff Lee had trouble pitching in Texas last year.
Beachy needs to make some adjustments to go deeper into games but he’s having a pretty awesome rookie season. If he makes those adjustments, I think he can be a solid #2 in fantasy. I think Holland will continue to be a guy that you treat like a decent 3-4 and you pitch them based on matchups. That’s my opinion at least.
I've had Holland all year,
and I didn’t realize he’s thrown four shutouts. He is volatile, and the home park hurts him. Beachy is probably safer, and he’s no slouch in terms of stuff or pitchability, but Holland still has a ceiling of a #2 if he stays healthy and keeps developing. Big ifs.
Holland's consistency has been off his whole career
Ever since he’s been in the big leagues he’s been posting games where he’s just absolutely dominant going 9 innings and giving up nothing, and the next outing he’ll get blown up.
It seems like he’s slowly pitching more and more starts in the good category, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to really turn the corner.
He's 24
He’s got time to develop. At this point it’s about refining his craft, and it’s always worth speculating on lefties with good stuff. YMMV.
by blackoutyears on Aug 6, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Plus, a large part of the inconsistency is because he’s exhausted SINCE RON WASHINGTON KEEPS LEAVING HIM IN FOR COMPLETE GAMES. What a friggin shock his stuff is down the next time he goes out there. Wow! Holland must be inherently inconsistent since he can’t handle bouncing back off all the complete game outings like Old Hoss Radbourne!
Good point, Al
Holland’s not exactly a horse either. Unless he’s showing extreme efficiency it probably doesn’t make much sense to leave him in much over 100 pitches if he’s gotten the team through 8 innings.
by blackoutyears on Aug 7, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Its so humorous to me.
I have to hear people pontificate on how he can’t face a good hitting team… Gives up 7 Runs to the Angels… well, its because someone just left him out there for 118 & 119 pitch, CGs in back to back starts before that against Oakland & Seattle! Oh, he doesn’t look sharp today – Gee, I wonder why? These were not 1 run games and they just went a week without using Feliz, btw.
The myth of Derek Holland’s inconsistency is mostly a result of his manager being incoherent, IMO.
check out his home and road BaBIPs
I think Arlington has a lot less room for error. There have been a couple of games when I knew for a fact he was just plain unlucky, and then there have been a couple of home games where his location sucked and he was getting hit hard. I think there is a mix of Holland just being young (and rushed to the majors, like Feliz and Borbon who have also struggled), being inconsistent, and perhaps, as you say, being mismanaged. But I think most of it is just him being inconsistent.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
by t ball on Aug 8, 2011 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it's also been tough
because he’s been moved in and out of the rotation. This is really the first year he’s had a chance to get settled in at all. The hot start last year was derailed by injury, and then he went to the ‘pen for the playoffs. There was even word that his spot was in danger before he took off in July. I think there’s definitely some incosnistency there, especially with command, but I think Al has a real point with the complete games and pitch counts. OTOH, I’m buying Ryan’s direction, and this sort of stuff may just come with the territory.
by blackoutyears on Aug 8, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
and he had a couple of injuries
so his progress was interrupted in several ways, he was rushed, he was injured, he started and relieved, etc. I hope the Rangers slow down a bit with some of their prospects.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Martin Perez
is definitely being pushed, and you could argue that David Perez is too I suppose. Whom do you want to see slowed down in particular?
by blackoutyears on Aug 9, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, Martin Perez was pushed
up until he got to AA, but he spent 200 innings there before moving up to AAA. Presumably, with all 5 of their major league starters doing reasonably well (or better) he’ll remain in AAA until sometime next year.
I’m fine with pushing the young guys into low A, or even full season A ball at a young age. I think facing more talented and polished competition serves them well. But Holland had just 30 innings (!) above A ball before making his major league debut.
Andrus was promoted directly from AA, but he at least had 4 full seasons and over 400 games in the minors, including a full season at AA before moving up. Julio Borbon, on the other hand, played only 264 games in the minors before being thrust into a prominent role on a contending club.
Andrus and Feliz (and to a certain extent, Holland) represented major upgrades over the MLB players they replaced at their positions when they were promoted. The team was helped in the short term, even if the players’ developments have taken a rockier path because of it. Right now, though, it would be a bit harder for Perez to represent a big upgrade over anyone on the major league staff this year. And Leonys Martin will be an improvement over CF, but perhaps not enough to force the issue immediately.
Basically, I’m hoping that the major league team’s strength and depth allow the team to slow down advancement of their top prospects at the upper levels so they can be more polished when they arrive. This is better for the player, and for the team in the long run, I think, because they get them through their prime years and they’re just a bit less likely to be so volatile. Seeing 18 year olds in A ball isn’t as big a problem as seeing raw guys in Arlington.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Right
I was thinking purely pitching prospects, and didnt’ even notice you’d only said prospects. They definitely pushed Borbon too far too fast imo. You can make a good case that Holland was pushed too fast, though his performance in the high minors pre-and post promotion has been uniformly dominant, so nothing left but to learn in the majors? I think they’ve pushed Neil Ramirez pretty hard.
Andrus I have no problem with. He’s been playing pro ball since he was 16, so as you say, he had a lot more experience than most kids his age. And considering the state of SS offense these days, and his defensive ability, his slower development as a hitter hasn’t really been a drag on the team. He’s also such a great make-up player and student of the game that you knew he’d weather struggles better than most. Watching him run the bases in the playoffs last year was awesome.
by blackoutyears on Aug 11, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I hesitate to say
that they just shouldn’t promote guys as quickly as they are. Obviously, they are a lot closer to these players than I am, and they have a good feel for who can handle the jumps. But I think they’ve pushed guys to hurry the contention curve a bit, and maybe they’ll relax ever so slightly promoting guys to the majors now that they have a good core there.
I actually think that one of Daniels’ strongest points as a GM has been his short term signings. He’s made a lot of pretty smart deals for one or two years in positions that needed placeholders or mentor/veteran types over the last few seasons (like Guerrero, Vizquel, Gagne, etc.). Most have performed well (though the 1B options were a notable exception) and some became good trade fodder.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
I'm a big Daniels fan
All-around good GM, and those short term signings were well thought out (Vizquel mentors Andrus, Guerrero’s history hitting in Arlington) and successful. Fun major league team to watch and a great minor league system. You guys are fortunate.
by blackoutyears on Aug 13, 2011 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Andrus, Feliz, Borbon should have been pushed
they are fungable assets. Andrus will never hit but has a fantastic glove. With Borbon they were hoping he could at least give them a year or two with OK hitting to go with great D. Unfortunately his hitting didn’t do so well and his D wasn’t as advertised.
Feliz has been great for them. He is way overhyped IMO. Fragile psyche and fragile body with a golden arm. Get as many good years as you can out of him and enjoy the ride.
Holland was the surprise. He had a slurvy pitch but threw mid 90s with poor command. The kid had to work on breaking balls and dialed back his fastball for command. I would rather see him in the minors working on consistency and see if he could manage to keep his velocity and gain command. And work on his secondaries. This is one of the few misses from Texas.
I wouldn't be surprised
if Andrus turned himself into a hitter yet. Maybe not with Texas at the rate Profar is going….
Holland has been completely consistent and pretty much dominant in the high minors. There’s no good reason not to let him learn at the major league level unless his struggles threaten the team’s ability to contend, and that hasn’t been the case the last two years.
by blackoutyears on Aug 13, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Re:
This was a bit of a silly comment. He threw 95 pitches in his CG against Toronto. Do you want them to skip his start?
You need to read
the whole thread. Al made it clear he’s talking about other complete games (118 & 119 pitch, CGs in back to back starts before that against Oakland & Seattle).
by blackoutyears on Aug 11, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fair how much real effort was involved in shutting down
Oakland and Seattle? And the Angels are absolutely dreadful, they have at least 3 walking corpses on the field. :)
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