San Diego Padres 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

San Diego Padres 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the San Diego Padres. This list was originally published December 26, 2010. We will look at the New York Yankees on Friday, the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday, the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals on Monday, and the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.

This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.

The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.

1) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+:   10-4, 4.15 ERA, 87/35 K/BB in 119 innings for Double-A San Antonio, 136 hits, 1.71 GO/AO. He throws strikes and has made some progress, but the numbers still don't quite match his reputation. Product of Red Sox hype?

2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: Got killed at Triple-A Tucson early, 10.17 ERA with 21/18 K/BB and 37 hits in 26 innings. Now back at San Antonio, 5.34 ERA with 57/12 K/BB in 59 innings, 74 hits. Very disappointing in all respects.

3) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B+:  Hitting .225/.372/.397 with 14 homers, 86 walks, 118 strikeouts in 383 at-bats for San Antonio. Matt Stairs comparisons still seem apt.

4) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Grade B:  Destroyed Triple-A pitching with a .367/.436/.750 mark, 32 walks, 62 strikeouts in 248 at-bats, but didn't handle major leagues well (.143/.282/.265, 15 walks, 36 strikeouts in 98 at-bats). Obviously will get more chances.

5) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B-: Suspended for drug use. Now playing for Eugene in the Northwest League, .305/.400/.439 with 12 steals, 12 walks, 21 strikeouts in 82 at-bats. All the tools still here, needs to stay on the field.

6) Corey Luebke, LHP, Grade B-:   3.21 ERA with 82/22 K/BB in 81 major league innings, 58 hits. A very strong rookie season.

7) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B-:    .333/.434/.604 with 17 homers, 52 walks, 48 strikeouts in 288 at-bats for San Antonio, .253/.356/.483 with six homers, 12 walks, 21 strikeouts in 87 at-bats for Tucson. Seeing playing time at third base and outfield but it is the bat that will carry him.

8) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Grade B-:   .277/.354/.355 with 39 walks, 89 strikeouts in 397 at-bats for High-A Lake Elsinore, 36 steals. Fast, strong defense, little power, approach still rather raw.

9) Drew Cumberland, INF, Grade B-:  Out all season with vertigo.

10) Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Grade B-:   Hit .365/.429/.638 with 18 homers, 38 walks, 64 strikeouts,11 steals in 340 at-bats for Lake Elsinore. Hasn't transitioned well to Double-A, .241/.323/.333 with 13 walks, 23 strikeouts for San Antonio in 108 at-bats.

11) Johnny Barbato, RHP, Grade B-: High school pitcher from 2010 draft.  4.38 ERA with 38/19 K/BB in 37 innings for short-season Eugene, 30 hits. Command issues, but lots of strikeouts.

12) Matt Lollis, RHP, Grade C+:  5.11 ERA with 93/36 K/BB in 93 innings for Lake Elsinore, 102 hits. Much more effective since switch to relief, 24/3 K/BB with 3.32 ERA in 19 innings.

13) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+:  6.82 ERA with 76/40 K/BB in 65 innings for Low-A Fort Wayne, 69 hits. Lots of strikeouts, but command has been awful.

14) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: Last year, I wrote "I'd give him a B- and put him in the top ten if not for questions about his health." He's been healthy and the results have been excellent:  2.81 ERA, 105/35 K/BB in 90 innings for Fort Wayne, 57 hits. I'm very high on him.

15) Juan Oramas, LHP, Grade C+:   3.43 ERA with 59/19 K/BB in 66 innings for San Antonio, 65 hits. A decent year.

16) Edinson Rincon, OF-3B, Grade C+:  .336/.391/.509 with eight homers, 24 doubles, 26 walks, 57 strikeouts in 289 at-bats for Lake Elsinore. Defense at third is awful, .816 fielding percentage, and he's been a DH much of the year. He can hit though.

17) Jason Hagerty, C, Grade C+:  .311/.386/.518 with 26 walks, 62 strikeouts in 257 at-bats for Lake Elsinore, .183/.24/.250 in his first 16 games for San Antonio with four walks, 21 strikeouts in 60 at-bats. Decent against runners (30%) but makes a lot of errors.

18) Logan Forsythe, 2B, Grade C+:  Hit .326/.445/.528 in 46 games for Tucson, .186/.247/.257 in 37 games for the Padres so far.

19) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: .299/.410/.541 with 17 homers, 55 walks, 85 strikeouts in 331 at-bats for San Antonio, with 31 steals. Jumped to the majors, .261/.370/.391 in 11 games. Will be Prospect of the Day on Friday.

20) Zach Cates, RHP, Grade C+:  4.40 ERA with 80/34 K/BB in 86 innings for Fort Wayne, 83 hits, 1.39 GO/AO and one homer allowed. Needs some polish but I still think he has a lot of potential.

21) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+:  Hitting .301/.373/.491 with 11 homers, 36 walks, 89 strikeouts, 30 steals in 375 at-bats for Lake Elsinore, at age 20. I know it is the Cal League but it is a good year. Defense needs work.

22) Jose De Paula, LHP, Grade C+:   5.53 ERA with 60/29 K/BB in 83 innings for Lake Elsinore, 101 hits, 1.42 GO/AO. Effective against lefties but can't get right-handed hitters out (.314).

23) Everett Williams, OF, Grade C+:  Blew out right ACL in the first week of the season.

Mixed results, with some serious disappointments and injury casualties, but also some pleasant successes such as Luebke, Tekotte, and especially Sampson.

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