San Diego Padres 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 4, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
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I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the San Diego Padres. This list was originally published December 26, 2010. We will look at the New York Yankees on Friday, the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday, the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, the Kansas City Royals on Monday, and the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+: 10-4, 4.15 ERA, 87/35 K/BB in 119 innings for Double-A San Antonio, 136 hits, 1.71 GO/AO. He throws strikes and has made some progress, but the numbers still don't quite match his reputation. Product of Red Sox hype?
2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: Got killed at Triple-A Tucson early, 10.17 ERA with 21/18 K/BB and 37 hits in 26 innings. Now back at San Antonio, 5.34 ERA with 57/12 K/BB in 59 innings, 74 hits. Very disappointing in all respects.
3) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B+: Hitting .225/.372/.397 with 14 homers, 86 walks, 118 strikeouts in 383 at-bats for San Antonio. Matt Stairs comparisons still seem apt.
4) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Grade B: Destroyed Triple-A pitching with a .367/.436/.750 mark, 32 walks, 62 strikeouts in 248 at-bats, but didn't handle major leagues well (.143/.282/.265, 15 walks, 36 strikeouts in 98 at-bats). Obviously will get more chances.
5) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B-: Suspended for drug use. Now playing for Eugene in the Northwest League, .305/.400/.439 with 12 steals, 12 walks, 21 strikeouts in 82 at-bats. All the tools still here, needs to stay on the field.
6) Corey Luebke, LHP, Grade B-: 3.21 ERA with 82/22 K/BB in 81 major league innings, 58 hits. A very strong rookie season.
7) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B-: .333/.434/.604 with 17 homers, 52 walks, 48 strikeouts in 288 at-bats for San Antonio, .253/.356/.483 with six homers, 12 walks, 21 strikeouts in 87 at-bats for Tucson. Seeing playing time at third base and outfield but it is the bat that will carry him.
8) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Grade B-: .277/.354/.355 with 39 walks, 89 strikeouts in 397 at-bats for High-A Lake Elsinore, 36 steals. Fast, strong defense, little power, approach still rather raw.
9) Drew Cumberland, INF, Grade B-: Out all season with vertigo.
10) Jedd Gyorko, 3B, Grade B-: Hit .365/.429/.638 with 18 homers, 38 walks, 64 strikeouts,11 steals in 340 at-bats for Lake Elsinore. Hasn't transitioned well to Double-A, .241/.323/.333 with 13 walks, 23 strikeouts for San Antonio in 108 at-bats.
11) Johnny Barbato, RHP, Grade B-: High school pitcher from 2010 draft. 4.38 ERA with 38/19 K/BB in 37 innings for short-season Eugene, 30 hits. Command issues, but lots of strikeouts.
12) Matt Lollis, RHP, Grade C+: 5.11 ERA with 93/36 K/BB in 93 innings for Lake Elsinore, 102 hits. Much more effective since switch to relief, 24/3 K/BB with 3.32 ERA in 19 innings.
13) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: 6.82 ERA with 76/40 K/BB in 65 innings for Low-A Fort Wayne, 69 hits. Lots of strikeouts, but command has been awful.
14) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: Last year, I wrote "I'd give him a B- and put him in the top ten if not for questions about his health." He's been healthy and the results have been excellent: 2.81 ERA, 105/35 K/BB in 90 innings for Fort Wayne, 57 hits. I'm very high on him.
15) Juan Oramas, LHP, Grade C+: 3.43 ERA with 59/19 K/BB in 66 innings for San Antonio, 65 hits. A decent year.
16) Edinson Rincon, OF-3B, Grade C+: .336/.391/.509 with eight homers, 24 doubles, 26 walks, 57 strikeouts in 289 at-bats for Lake Elsinore. Defense at third is awful, .816 fielding percentage, and he's been a DH much of the year. He can hit though.
17) Jason Hagerty, C, Grade C+: .311/.386/.518 with 26 walks, 62 strikeouts in 257 at-bats for Lake Elsinore, .183/.24/.250 in his first 16 games for San Antonio with four walks, 21 strikeouts in 60 at-bats. Decent against runners (30%) but makes a lot of errors.
18) Logan Forsythe, 2B, Grade C+: Hit .326/.445/.528 in 46 games for Tucson, .186/.247/.257 in 37 games for the Padres so far.
19) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: .299/.410/.541 with 17 homers, 55 walks, 85 strikeouts in 331 at-bats for San Antonio, with 31 steals. Jumped to the majors, .261/.370/.391 in 11 games. Will be Prospect of the Day on Friday.
20) Zach Cates, RHP, Grade C+: 4.40 ERA with 80/34 K/BB in 86 innings for Fort Wayne, 83 hits, 1.39 GO/AO and one homer allowed. Needs some polish but I still think he has a lot of potential.
21) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .301/.373/.491 with 11 homers, 36 walks, 89 strikeouts, 30 steals in 375 at-bats for Lake Elsinore, at age 20. I know it is the Cal League but it is a good year. Defense needs work.
22) Jose De Paula, LHP, Grade C+: 5.53 ERA with 60/29 K/BB in 83 innings for Lake Elsinore, 101 hits, 1.42 GO/AO. Effective against lefties but can't get right-handed hitters out (.314).
23) Everett Williams, OF, Grade C+: Blew out right ACL in the first week of the season.
Mixed results, with some serious disappointments and injury casualties, but also some pleasant successes such as Luebke, Tekotte, and especially Sampson.
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Lollis
Do you think the move to relief is a permanent one, or one that is allowing him to get his stuff back after such a bad beginning to the year as a starter? Thanks!
I really think it is just limiting innings
He was on pace to nearly double his innings total from last year.
This way he can still get some work, but it allows him to have a more reasonable jump in innings from last year.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 4, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Luebke
Do you think you graded him too low last year, or will he regress to what you expected from him? Or is he someone who just succeeded in the majors more than you anticipated? Looking back, is there anything that could or should have made him graded higher?
I guess these questions are pointed to a larger question of how do you re-evaluate your prospect grading, and what lessons do you take from this to inform your future grading?
complicated question that deserves a larger reply
Remember the grades are merely a shorthand. The actual report in the book is more illuminating.
Here is what I wrote about Luebke in the book.
“Luebke is a classic finesse lefty, working with an 88-92 MPH fastball, a slider, and a changeup. his best pitch is the breaking ball, and while none of his offerings are outstanding, his feel for pitching is very impressive and helps his stuff play up. He had no troubles in the Texas or Pacific Coast Leagues, and performed well in his major league trial. Luebke doesn’t get as much attention as other pitching prospects, but he throws strikes and knows what he’s doing. I think he could be a solid number three or four starter for a long time to come, and should be considered a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate for 2011.”
by John Sickels on Aug 4, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Spot on. He's showing a solid #3 performance and no reason to suspect he'll regrerss.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Luebke
I think a B grade is solid for Luebke. His numbers seem to have benefited from being in the pen, although he’s looked impressive since going back to the rotation. I really like his approach; he’s not afraid to bust righties inside. Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke are fun to watch when they’re on.
Luebke and Stauffer have both said their time in the pen made them better pitchers.
I’ve heard John say it before and I’ve become a big believer that all rookie pitchers should get their feet wet in the pen before the rotation. It’s good for their development.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Jesus Guzman
Is Guzman too old to be considered a prospect? What’s your outlook on him and does he remind you of any particular player?
Interesting guy
seems to have proven he can hit at all levels but most know very little about him. Some further insight would be great.
Problem with Guzman
is that he doesn’t have a position. Everyone knew he could hit, and he’s continued to prove that in 2011. He just never got extended MLB playing time because of his glove.
by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 4, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Red Sox (or other big market) hype
Do you think the hype on some of these prospects comes from the organization, the media, both or somewhere else?
all
All systems talk up their prospects of course.
For media reasons, I think the Red Sox and the Braves tend to benefit from excessive hype. For some reason, people seem to be more objective about Yankees and Mets prospects. Just my opinion.
by John Sickels on Aug 4, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the NY teams
have become more reasonable fairly recently. 10-15 years ago there were several prospects – specifically for the Yankees – that bewildered me as to their hype. Names escape me since none really made a big splash, but I think there was just a backlash at that point. To their credit, I think the Yankees in particular became a bit more candid about their prospects’ weaknesses and that has helped bring the pendulum back to center.
Thanks for the response
It makes me wonder if there is a measurable and tangible benefit to some good ol’ hype, although my guess is it’s impossible to say for certain (for instance, is Kelly hiding an injury or have some other unknown problem that’s stalling his development, or simply a case of excessive hype?).
I've been saying it since the Gonzalez trade
The Red Sox got the better end of that deal by a wide margin. I don’t know the logistics of SD’s front office, but I think they should have found a way to keep him in San Diego. I think that deal hinges pretty heavily on Rizzo, Kelly never screamed big time prospect to me. Time will tell of course.
I think Kelly is clearly superior to Rizzo
Rizzo is a decent bat and might end up being an okay first baseman, but he’s hardly somebody to get THAT excited about.
Kelly was the big piece in that trade, and he’s still the big piece in that trade.
I think Kelly just needs another pitch and he'll start to take off
His arm action is good enough that a new pitch could become an average to above average one quickly. He’s so new to pitching and so young for his level that you have to think there are just things he has to learn to catch up with people at his level.
"Beating the Red Sox feels SO GOOD.! SO GOOD! SO GOOD!" -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I'm not saying Rizzo is a better piece than Kelly
I’m saying the deal depends on him working out even a little. Kelly I think ends up a good ML pitcher in time, but he never screamed elite to me. So I think the deal hinges on Rizzo ending up a decent bat for their lineup, along with Kelly ending up a #2 or fringe #1. I worded that funny in my comment though, my fault on that.
To start anyways
but we can’t disregard everything just cause Rizzo plays in the PCL. For example he is doing better than Lawrie who is the same age and people are calling him a potential star bat… so why is Rizzo just decent?
There was simply no way to keep Adrian in San Diego
Their payroll is about 45M. Adrian makes 20+/year now.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 4, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Their payroll is really that low?
that seems surprising to me, I probably could look up these numbers before forming these opinions.
you're right, man
why is it that low? I’ve never been to San Diego, but its in a decently populated area as far as I know. Anyone have any reasons they care to share?
It's a terrible baseball market.
Doesn’t matter how large it is, the Padres just don’t draw. So they get less ticket revenue, and their TV rights are worth far less than other markets.
by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 4, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the TV stuff might factor in
plus I guess you’re competing for fans with both LA teams. I was watching the Dodgers Padres game the other night, and was surprised by how loud the LA fans were.
75% of residents are transplants
People that live in San Diego are more likely to go to the game to see the other team play rather than go see the Padres.
TV deal and ownership transition
The current (expires this year maybe) TV deal is also extra terrible. Supposedly the new deal will help at least a bit. I think the ownership transition is also setup as a gradual process so some of the revenue from the team is still going to that.
And the fact that even when they’re good they don’t draw an audience doesn’t help matters. If they played the Giants every game they’d never really be the home team but they’d make a lot more money.
The Padres do draw better when they win.
2004-2007 prove that. They actually had an Opening Day payroll of over $70m in 2008 (fat lot of good it did, though). If/when the new TV deal with Fox gets approved it will definitely help support a somewhat larger payroll, but it won’t ever be in the upper half of the league.
Contrary to the conspiracy theories that a lot of Padre fans like to throw around about ownership pocketing money while letting the team twist in the wind, the fact is they just don’t have the resources right now to support even an average payroll.
by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 4, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
2004-2007
Wasn’t the 2004-2007 boost also driven by the opening of Petco? It’s been a decade since I’ve lived in San Diego but I don’t really remember them ever having good fan support. The numbers rebounded a bit last year but were still pretty bad considering how the team played for most of the year.
Both factors played a role in boosting attendance during that period.
Season ticket purchases were up in 2011, which is how things usually go—you see a boost in ticket sales the year AFTER the winning.
by Zach (maestro876) on Aug 6, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Casey Kelly
80 % Red Sox Hype, 20 % overreaction to a good debut in 2009.
Castro
Has his last two starts not done anything? I know its only two, but it has to be a sign that he didn’t completely fall off the earth no? Does he still have a chance of being a 2 or 3 starter?
his last two starts: 16 IP, 19 Ks, 1 BB, 5 ER
He was injured and that could account for his terrible stretch earlier.
His strikeout rate has fallen progressively as he’s been promoted. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the pen later on.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
but his past two starts
his k totals have to be encouraging
by gobruins12345 on Aug 4, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Not true
He’s had a rough season but, you are not being accurate. he had more Ks in 2009, 10.1 per 9, than in 2008, 8.8. He has also Kdf more people this year, 8.3, than last year 7.3.
Its hard to see why people constantly mention Castro’s Ks when he has Kd a better per inning in his minor league career. Also his lowest K season, was when he pitched his best. His 2010 at San Antonio was a good one.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Drew Cumberland
I’ve read varying reports ranging from “he’s taking time off” to “he’s set to retire” to “he has already retired” due to his vertigo. Does anybody have a report to validate one/any of these reports?
this was what I had seen
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jul/10/shortstops-hit-hard-injuries-padres-system/
Cumberland, 22, whose vertigo problems apparently originated with a pair of concussions he suffered while playing football as a freshman in high school, is also out for the season.
The Padres have asked Cumberland to delay any final decisions about baseball, although the infielder has told friends in the organization that he will likely retire as a player and pursue other careers in baseball.
by PrincetonCubs on Aug 4, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Disappointing
I had high hopes for him…hopefully he can get the situation resolved, just for quality of life purposes at the very least.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 4, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Rymer Liriano
He has to be shooting up these lists. Maybe he needs to have success at higher levels first, but he seems to be just screaming “top prospect” a year or so down the road.
I think if you did a new midseason list, he'd be there
But, that’s not what this is.
Now Rymer Liriano seems like an obvious candidate for a revised top 20, but I’d wonder if a guy like Yoan Alcantara can squeeze in there. I have big hopes for that kid.
"Beating the Red Sox feels SO GOOD.! SO GOOD! SO GOOD!" -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
I'm am excited about Alcantara too
but his bb/so ratio 1/20 scares me
don't panic. stay cool. dream big.
So true.
That could just come from him being in a league with so many hittable pitches. Kind of the old Gary Brown argument, that once he needs walks he’ll get walks. But I guess we’ll see.
"Beating the Red Sox feels SO GOOD.! SO GOOD! SO GOOD!" -jbox
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Definitely an exciting player
It seems like every game he’s got a single, a double and 2 sb’s.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 5, 2011 4:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Josh Spence
Wasn’t on this list. Anyone have thoughts on him?
So far he looks like a pretty good middle reliever
His fastball is well below average usually sitting in the mid to low 80’s, but he has solid secondary stuff and seems to have a good idea of how to pitch. Due to his lack of velocity he doesn’t use his fastball much, mostly pitching off of his slider. Certainly some regression is due, but it’s tough to guess just how much with his arsenal of pitches being a little unorthodox.
I think a player has to be an almost guaranteed future late-inning stud to make it on the list as a reliever.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 4, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
watched at Arizona St in 2009
Probably watched him throw 5-6 games in person, another 10+ on TV.
master of his craft type. Full arsenal of pitches and arm angles, even seems to make up new stuff as he goes along. Maxes out at 85mph and sits in the low 80s (as a starter). Changeup was the best I had ever seen at the college level. No exaggeration, the BEST. Had two variations of the change, two variations of his slider (big breaker and a cutter type) and even a slow curve. Would throw one pitch 83 and then the next one at 65. Resiliant arm as well, came back on 2 days rest in Omaha and threw a complete game.
Probably won’t happen, but would love to see him as a starter. Its not like he’s a one trick pony, he throws 5-6 pitches
Jedd Gyorko
Can hit in the upper levels? His BB and K rates are similar to his AA numbers, but his BABIP (and ISO) are significantly lower. Can he be a league-average 3B?
Any thoughts on Vince Belnome?
In case anyone doesn’t know he was a college teammate of Jedd Gyorko at West Virginia University.
Seems to be tearing the cover of the ball at AA (unlike Gyorko at the moment)
in 68 games .321/.424/.576 1.000 OPS 14 HRs 53RBIs
What are your thoughts of Belnome?
Does he have the potential to be anything more than a utility bat?
I'd be interested in John's thoughts on Liriano too
I have him 7th in the system between Sampson and Castro, two guys John would probably give B’s right now. So I would think Liriano is about that same grade. Though he might not be as high on Liriano, or Castro anymore, as I am.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 5, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Leubke
Mike Minor syndrome? Are big, athletic lefties the most likely to beat their scouting reports?
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