Josh Vitters: Will He Figure Things Out?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 21, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintThe Chicago Cubs drafted third baseman Josh Vitters in the first round of the 2007 MLB Draft out of high school. He was rated as Baseball America's #43 prospect heading into the 2008 season, even though he hit just .118-.164-.118 in 51 at bats in Low A and Rookie ball.
Going into the 2008 season, John wrote this about Vitters in his pre-season Cubs Top 20 Prospects;
The hardest part is the top two. Who would you rather have? Vitters or Soto? Vitters is the big-name guy, of course, the hot first round pick, young and talented. But he was so BAD after signing. How seriously should we take a 14-game sample size? Soto's ceiling isn't as high as Vitters', but he's already major league ready.
It appears John was onto something, as he questioned if the small sample size should be disregarded or not. Small samples sizes are usually disregarded but sometimes they can offer a glimpse into the future. But Baseball America was still high on him praising his hit tool and his power:
There's still debate as to which tool is more impressive, Vitters' hitting ability or his power, but the consensus is that his future potential grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale in both categories. He's the rare righthanded hitter whose swing gets described as pretty, and his bat speed and feel for putting the barrel on the ball are also uncommon.
In 2008, he hit .322-.357-.495 with 5 HRs, 38 RBI, 28 doubles and a 50-13 K/BB rate in 273 at bats. He didn't walk much, but displayed doubles power in his first full season in the minors. The home run power, though, was missing, but as an 18 year old in his first full season, the potential was still there.
More on Vitters after the jump:
Heading into the 2009 season, John still had some questions about Vitters' power, but ranked him as the Cubs #1 prospect with a B+ grade:
1) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills and still very young.
Yes, the home run power was lacking, but the 28 doubles offered the Cubs some promise that he could turn some of those doubles into balls flying over the fence. The fact that he was still only 18 years old offered even more promise. John was not the only prospect expert with concerns about Vitters. Here is ESPN's Keith Law on him in his 2009 pre-season Top 100 prospects, but he did rank him as his 14th ranked prospect in all of baseball:
Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight.....he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total......If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.
Vitters must have read the prospect rankings before the 2009 season, as he he went on to hit .284-.314-.456 with 18 HRs, 68 RBI, 19 doubles, and a 65-12 K/BB rate in 458 at bats, split between Low A and High A. More balls flew over the fence for Vitters, but the walk rate was borderline ridiculous. By the end of the 2009 season, Vitters had walked just 25 times in 730+ at bats. So there was still work to be done at the plate for Vitters, as his power was just average, but nothing that stood out.
Heading into the 2010 season, Baseball America had dropped him to #70 in their pre-season rankings, down from #43 in 2008 and #51 in 2009. John had the same concerns about the walk rate, but cut him some slack by giving him a B+ grade since he still wasn't striking out much.
In 2010, Vitters started the season in High A, Daytona where he hit .291-.350-.445 with 3 HRs, 13 RBI and a 22-8 K/BB rate in 110 at bats, earning him a promotion to AA Tennessee. In his 206 at bats in AA, Vitters hit just .223-.292-.383 with 7 HRs, 26 RBI and a 41-13 K/BB rate in 206 at bats. So the power and batting average dropped as he moved up to AA, and the experts really started questioning him as a top prospect. In fact, they were running for the exits.
Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law all dropped him from their Top 100 prospect lists heading into the 2011 season. John stated that he was losing faith in him and dropped him to #7 on his Cubs Top 20 Prospect list. Vitters started the 2011 season repeating AA, where he has shown improvement at the plate against more advanced pitching. This season, he is hitting .285-.319-.447 with 12 HRs, 67 RBI and a 48-16 K/BB rate in 396 at bats.
At this point in his minor league career, Vitters has walked an unfathomable 65 times in almost 1,500 at bats. Needless to say, he is never going to be an on-base guy. But, the power has not developed either. His career slugging percentage is just .438, and he has just 45 HRs, an for a third baseman, that is not going to cut it.
I know its a small sample size, but Vitters is hitting .338-.357-.477 in 69 August at bats with 6 extra base hits, 17 RBI and a 10-3 K/BB rate. Could it be that Vitters s turning the corner after disappointing the experts, and himself, for so long? I don't think we will know until sometime in 2012, as the Cubs have the luxury of Aramis Ramirez manning third base for them next year.
They will probably promote Vitters to AAA to start the 2012 season, as this is his second time playing in AA. Once promoted to AAA, Vitters is going to have to flash more power and a walk a few more times to earn himself a call up next season. If not, he could be just another in a long line of hyped prospects who fail to reach their potential.
Then again, Vitters is only 21 years old, and maybe the power and patience will come as he matures as a hitter. Maybe something will click on for him. Early scouting reports on him said he had one of the sweetest swings around, and Cubs fans deserve someone to get them excited about baseball again. Shortstop Starlin Castro has provided some of this, but with another losing season, Cubs fans are looking for more. Maybe Vitters flips that switch and becomes the hitter he was projected to be when he was drafted 4 years ago. Like I said, he is only 21, so he would be graduating college right now had he chosen college over baseball.
Cubs fans hope something clicks for him in 2012. Can he turn things around in 2012?
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How are the defensive reports
Last time I heard, he looked like he might have to move to 1st, which would kill his value even more.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 21, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
Bullish
I’m relatively bullish on Vitters. He’s still very young, and he’s demonstrated an ability to hit for average with some pop. If his glove takes well to first, there’s no reason he couldn’t grow to be a decent 1B. Vitters is still very young, and his ARL has been strong. I’d be a little surprised if he doesn’t turn out to be a useful Major Leaguer.
This is pretty much what most Cubs fans think
He will make the majors, and could possibly be a useable piece, but he won’t be the superstar he was drafted to be. He probably won’t even be an everyday player.
Solid average regular (at least)
There are very few players who are hitting a bunch of HR at 19-20 years old; I can’t believe that I’m reading that people are disappointed in Vitters HR power. This is a guy who hit 18 HR as a 19 year old.
Moreover, how is “only” 45 HR not going to cut it at 3B? It’s not like 3B is a big power position. The typical offense there is similar to 2B. And yet I hear this all the time, that 3B is a “corner” position and people expect a 3B to hit like a 1B for some reason.
But take even Vitters 12 HR so far this year; that would rank 11th amongst MLB third baseman right now, tied with Chipper Jones and Edwin Encarnacion. And clearly he hasn’t hit his power peak yet; he’s currently the 6th youngest player in the Southern League, and no player there under 22 currently has an OPS over .770.
And on the whole, the extra base hit power has been solid, with a contact rate that is exceptional. I think Vitters easily projects to 20 HR power in MLB by the time he is 24 or 25. He’ll probably be a below average defender at 3B, but even so, he’ll still be an average regular overall there.
by acerimusdux on Aug 21, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
unfortunately, he might go the way of Sean Burroughs
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
except that Burroughs tore up the minors...sans power
Power – specifically HR power – was the only piece truly missing from SB’s game. I think he could’ve developed as a very good everyday player if folks weren’t so set on the type of offense that a 3B should produce. Several 3B have been productive with big power numbers, but I think the thought “I must hit HRs” got into Burroughs’ head and ruined his swing and approach, never mind what hitting coaches may have contributed.
I agree with RynoRooter – Vitters might become a decent bench/CIF piece, but I don’t see him becoming an everyday player.
Except power is a necessary part of remaining an everyday player in the majors.
If you can’t hit for power, pitchers don’t fear you. You can’t reliably take walks to justify your lack of power because pitchers will take their chances throwing strikes to you. No, Burroughs is the type of player you refer to to invalidate minor league numbers. His skill set never had a chance to translate to the majors. Regardless of how awesome he looked in a minor league uni.
My favorite memory of Sean Burroughs is watching him take BP on the Olympic team and having Tommy Lasorda yell at him “C’mon kid! You look like you’re afraid to crack that thing!”.
Awesome.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
http://marcel-oehler.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1986/05/19860506.gif
"I Hate SF" - The Chosen One.
Vitters already has more power than Burroughs
You want the next Burroughs, look to Zach Cox.
The word was that
KC almost took him over Moose. Thank our fictional god that never happened. That would have been a disaster. Moose is having enough trouble adapting to the bigs. Vitters appears to be a couple years away even at this point. At least moose chose to listen to coaches and take a few walks.
coachability
Do you have a source that dismisses Vitters’ willingness to listen to coaches?
Anybody...
who walks that infrequently either isnt listening to coaches or is getting bad coaching. The Cubs are as bad as the Royals except they play in the 3rd largest market in America, so I wouldnt be surprised if the latter is the case. Either way, Vitters is done as a serious prospect imo.
Low K-rate
One thing to mention is a very low k-rate. When John was going over guys that had surprising power in the majors vs the minors, the one common unifier was a very low k-rate. I still have faith.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
Vitters
Following Vitters closely over the years taught me a valuable lesson about reading scouting reports.
Prior to the draft, there were a number of scouts who praised Vitters for his eye at the plate and plate discipline. Even after he was drafted, there was a lot of discussion about how Vitters did a fantastic job of laying off pitches outside of his zone and that the walks would come naturally. Unfortunately, be it because of the Cubs’ aggressive hitting philosophy or because of Vitters’ own approach, the walks have not materialized yet. Vitters has done a very good job of not striking out, but a sizeable chunk of his on base ability has actually come from HBPs. He has 7 so far on the year.
In reality, Vitters did not have plus plate discipline or a great eye at the plate. What he had and continues to have is excellent plate coverage. Vitters has such a quick bat that he can make contact with pretty much any pitch thrown his way. Unfortunately, because he is so aggressive, that means he will often chase after pitches that hitters with good plate discipline would know not to chase. Thanks to his plate coverage, instead of whiffing on pitchers’ pitches, he either fouls them off or makes weak contact for an easy out. I think that’s been a large part of his struggles and part of the reason why his power hasn’t been as evident as it should be. Rather than wait for his pitch, he instead makes contact with bad pitches.
In fairness to Vitters, I don’t necessarily think his plate coverage is a fatal flaw. Starlin Castro has had tremendous success this season in large part because of his otherworldly plate coverage ability, despite a lack of walks. Castro and Vitters are different players, but it goes to show that this ability can be a tool at the major league level. Given how many hitters have gone through the Cubs’ system with low walk numbers, Vitters’ lack of plate discipline is a problem that may not necessarily lie with Vitters.
If the Cubs clean house in the front office (namely Oneri Fleita) and bring in better hitting coaches who advocate better approaches than the current crop, I think Vitters could really shine.
by Outshined_One on Aug 21, 2011 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
interesting comment
and something to watch in 2012 and beyond. Thanks.
Ray Guilfoyle
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 21, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
It sounds like what you are saying is..
The Cubs ridiculous organizational hitting philosophy has ruined Vitters and possibly many more players. At least so far.
Possible future Oriole
If it doesn’t work out I’m sure Andy McPhailure will sign him
yeah
Josh Bell isn’t working out too well
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Aug 21, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Useful big league regular,
not a star
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 21, 2011 7:57 PM EDT reply actions
As far as the poll question....
I went with “yes.” AAA for the Cubs is in the PCL, a league that doubles as a launching pad. Vitters’ contact, line drive driven offensive game could thrive there. The long term issue with him, as it is with Castro in the Majors and LeMahieu in the minors, is that their ability to cover the plate leads to alot of their early career offensive holes (power questions, low BB rates).
I think Vitters is a little underrated at this point. His AA line really is pretty solid all around, albeit not really impressive at first glance. He’s had a couple of really strong runs, including a May-hit in the head stretch where he was hitting close to .400 for a few weeks and this August run. If he can close out this season strong then I’d argue that we just might have seen a legit emergence.
As far as staying at 3B, I don’t know. I think he’ll end up in LF, but they won’t make the move until the bat comes around. So 2012 it is.
The problem with your "launching pad" theory
is that the avg player in the PCL hits like .300/.350/.500 and the avg era is over 5.00. He would have to put up a lot better #s than that to be taken seriously again. KC’s Clint Robinson (AAA Omaha Storm Chasers) is hitting .320/.398/.524 with 32 doubles, 21 hr and 90 rbi and isnt really a prospect at all. I know, he is blocked by Butler and Hosmer, but he barely cracks KC’s top 30 because the PCL is so offensive. (i know Im offended)….My point is , even if Vitters hit well there, what would it really mean? Next to nothing.
He's capable of doing that.
And if it happened, it’d mean a great deal.
meh. he's about to turn 22. he's walking at a 4% rate. he's got a .158 ISO his second time round AA ball.
he’s got a .317 OBP.
as a comp, tyler colvin had a .256/.312/.424 season in the same league as a 22 y.o., following a partial season in the southern league. now colvin has a .708 OPS and .307 wOBA as a major leaguer over 583 PAs.
no way to know if vitters improves on that development, but i think it’s not particularly likely. he COULD figure it out still. but he’s got a closing window. i would guess he ends up a below average, but above replacement 3b.
"the less I think of it, the more certain I am." beckett
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