Houston Astros 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2011 10:00 PM EDT
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Houston Astros 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Houston Astros. This list was originally published December 28, 2010. We will look at the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, and the Cleveland Indians to finish things off Saturday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST. THESE ARE NOT NEW GRADES
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B+: 3.20 ERA with 41/16 K/BB in 59 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City, 57 hits. 1-7, 5.31 in 14 starts for the Astros, 57/21 K/BB in 85 innings, 94 hits. I'm not really surprised by the major league results, but I think he will adjust and end up being very good, something like Brad Radke.
2) Delino DeShields, 2B, Grade B-: Hitting .225/.306/.317 with 27 steals, 41 walks, 104 strikeouts in 404 at-bats for Low-A Lexington. Very raw, especially on offense, but didn't turn 19 until this week.
3) Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Grade B-: 4.69 ERA with 79/47 K/BB in 125 innings for Lexington, 135 hits. He's eating innings well but the components aren't impressive at this point.
4) Austin Wates, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .308/.375/.421 with 20 steals, 44 walks, 74 strikeouts in 451 at-bats for High-A Lancaster. I like him, but we need to see him outside the Cal League.
5) J.D. Martinez, OF, Grade B-: .338/.414/.546 with 13 homers, 42 walks, 55 strikeouts in 317 at-bats for Double-A Corpus Christi. Hitting .258/.319/.515 since promotion to the majors, six walks, 15 strikeouts in 66 at-bats. I like him.
6) Tanner Bushue, RHP, Grade C+: Repeating Sally League with mediocre results, 4.30 ERA with 48/16 K/BB in 73 innings, 80 hits, 11 homers. Can't say I'm excited about this.
7) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.66 ERA with 54/23 K/BB in 73 major league innings, 68 hits, 13 homers. I think he can and will improve.
8) Mark Melancon, RHP, Grade C+: 3.20 ERA with 47/20 K/BB in 56 major league innings, 54 hits, 12 saves. Obviously no complaints here, a fine rookie season.
9) Jonathan Villar, SS, Grade C+: Hit .259/.353/.414 with 20 steals, 25 walks, 56 strikeouts in 174 at-bats for Lancaster, then .236/.305/.419 with nine steals, 22 walks, and 75 strikeouts in 246 at-bats for Corpus Christi. Young for Double-A at age 20, very athletic, still quite raw on both offense and defense.
10) Jimmy Paredes, 2B, Grade C+: .270/.300/.426 with 15 walks, 84 strikeouts, 29 steals in 385 at-bats for Corpus Christi. .294/.333/.490 in 51 major league at-bats, three walks, 11 strikeouts. I don't think his major league numbers are sustainable in a larger sample, not without substantial improvement in his plate discipline.
11) Mike Kvasnicka, 3B-C-OF, Grade C+: Hitting .278/.346/.385 in 418 at-bats for Lexington, 41 walks, 92 strikeouts. Settling in at third base but right now I don't think he has the power for the position.
12) Jiovanni Mier, SS, Grade C+: .245/.354/.380 with 37 walks, 58 strikeouts in 216 at-bats for Lexington, .199/.311/.235 with 20 walks, 45 strikeouts in 136 at-bats for Lancaster. It looks more and more like his rookie-ball season in '09 was an Appy League illusion, although at age 20 it is too soon to give up.
13) Jose Altuve, 2B, Grade C: .408/.451/.606 in 213 at-bats for Lancaster, .361/.388/.569 in 144 at-bats for Corpus Christi, .317/.333/.376 with two walks, 12 strikeouts in 101 major league at-bats. He has some adjustments to make, but I'm no longer concerned about the height issue and expect him to have a fine career.
14) Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Grade C: 3.17 ERA with 76/27 K/BB in 128 innings for Corpus Christi, 116 hits. Got killed in his first two Triple-A starts, but pitched well in his last one. Interesting finesse guy.
15) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Hitting a combined .244/.313/.339 with 40 walks, 101 strikeouts, 23 steals in 431 at-bats between Lancaster and Lexington. Still has tools but I don't think his bat is going to come around.
16) Ariel Ovando, OF, Grade C: .270/.326/.421 with 11 walks, 38 strikeouts in 126 at-bats for Greenville in the Appy League. Not a lot of performance yet, but just 17 years old.
17) Douglas Arguello, LHP, Grade C: 3.07 ERA with a 60/44 K/BB in 67 innings, 48 hits for Oklahoma City, and a 2.12 GO/AO. Lefties are hitting .133 against him. Deserves a shot.
18) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade C: .261/.362/.399 with 20 steals, 30 walks, 49 strikeouts in 218 at-bats for OKC. In the majors, hitting .288/.365/.439 in 66 at-bats with seven walks and 17 strikeouts. I think he can have a long career as a fourth outfielder.
19) Telvin Nash, 1B-OF, Grade C: .250/.368/.445 with 11 homers, 32 walks, 75 strikeouts in 200 at-bats for Lexington. Draws walks, lots of raw power, but strikeout rate is scary at this stage.
20) Carlos Quevedo, RHP, Grade C: 4.08 ERA with 94/13 K/BB in 136 innings for Lexington, 163 hits. Outstanding control, but very hittable and has given up 18 homers.
For all the talk about having a weak farm system, the Astros have gotten promising performance out of several rookies this year, with Altuve, Martinez, and Lyles looking like core players for the future and several others around who can contribute. They still need more depth and there is plenty of room for improvement, but things are looking up.
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I hear that Altuve is about 6'3 now.
Leader of Drew Vettleson fanclub
Geez, Ovando is one year older than me
Pretty crazy…
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
On the subject of Houston’s farm system, would you rank new acquisition Domingo Santana ahead of Ariel Ovando at this point?
by Stupendous Man on Aug 18, 2011 8:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
They're very similar prospects IMO
You could go either way and I wouldn’t have any real complaints.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think Ovando is still solidly ahead
Santana is more of a power only prospect, and he’s had a very poor strikeout history (though he’s young). Ovando has less of a record to go on, but I think he has more ways to make it as a hitter, and hasn’t done anything in his short pro career to raise any red flags.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 18, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Saw some scouts said that
Santana has a future 60 hit grade. I think more on the basis of his swing than his numbers. The reports are he has trouble recognizing breaking balls right now.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Can't wait to see Houston's top prospects list next year
Santana, Clemens, Obenholtzer, Singleton, Cosart, Springer, Armstrong, and all the other draft picks added in, along with great years from Chase Davidson, Adam Bailey, and others, it should be nice to see…
Anyway, do you think this team now has a top 15 farm system?
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Aug 18, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
Kody Hinze?
has his breakout year changed his prospect status, or is he just another in a long line of minor league sluggers that may get a cup of coffee or two but never amounts to more than that?
I believe Houstons now in the 12-15 range
Could be a lot higher next year IF all of that high-ceiling talent comes through.
Also, I think Villar has a big breakout next year, repeating AA as only a 21 year old. His power has shown up and he’s starting to get more patient a the plate.
by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 18, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
Probably closer to 15-20
Although, that’s not bad, having just called up Lyles, Altuve, Martinez, and Paredes.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Not bad at all
Especially when considering where Houston’s farm was a couple years back. Not dissimilar to Toronto actually in that both systems have seen an uptick since 2009 or so.
No offense intended
. . . I greatly appreciate you putting these up, to learn from our previous thought processes but, Giovanni Meir over Jose Altuve is almost the maximum-possible-error isn’t it? No real reason to think Meir was abetter propect last year either – one played great, the other sucked.
I know none of us like to talk about whiffs on here but, the lesson here is for all of us to quit ranking guys based on faulty assumptions about body right? All of us who take this seriously to an extent anyways. It’s one thing If a player actually has a bad body or a physical problem but Jose Altuve has, and here is the crucial point, ALWAYS had a good body for playing baseball. He didnt have anything to overcome physically – just others predudice and the struggles of the game itself – like any other prospect.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
I don't think it was just that though.
Mier was a pretty high draft pick and had success in his first year as a pro.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 18, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
No offense intended
but do you know anything about scouting guys…. generally speaking big guys hit for more power than small guys. also look at the majors, most pros are larger than altuve is. thats just how it is
by Noah McKinnie Braun on Aug 18, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Loking at players generally
. . . has little to do with looking at players specifically. In Altuve’s case it was erroneous to look at it that way.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
altuve
In Altuve’s case I let the doubts of scouts influence me too much. That said, I ranked him at 13th in the system and Baseball America had him at 28th. I don’t mind the ranking at 13, but I wish I had given him a C+.
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
and you are ahead of the curve on plenty of guys so I certainly didnt meen it as a criticism of you specifically. I agree that people who liked him, like me, listened to the doubts of scouts , etc, about him too much.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
This line right here
I agree that people who liked him, like me, listened to the doubts of scouts…
I love the humility.
by Patrick Harrel on Aug 18, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
how crazy for someone to say they liked a player? Isnt that arrogant? Sorry, I can’t tell if you are serious or not.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Something to note about Paredes
I agree his offensive numbers are not sustainable and he is due for some significant regression. However, I have been very pleasantly surprised by his defense. His athleticism is off the charts for a third baseman and he has a very strong arm. I think he can be a plus, maybe even plus-plus defender at the position in the future, and that should go a long way toward keeping him in the majors even if he winds up as a mediocre .250/.300/.400 type hitter.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Power is real, reportedly
And defense isn’t awful… but he’s striking out in 32% of plate appearances since making it AA ball, and walking in only 7%. I’m not optimistic about those kinds of numbers translating to him hitting in the majors… like, at all.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Yeah, the K% is somewhat discouraging, but he has jumped from low A to AA, and it is a relatively small sample size, and before his last 120 PA in a new league, he struck out about 20% of the time, and he is a catcher. If he can stay at catcher, his numbers could translate in the majors. Next year, I would expect his strikeout numbers to improve a little toward his career numbers.
For a team thats stunk it up the past couple of years,
There farm isnt that strong(n) and thats not a good sign.
No duh....
New additions Cosart, Singleton, Santana, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Springer, and Armstrong don’t appear on this list, because they weren’t in the system at the time this list was compiled. All of them are strong enough to be in Houston’s top 10, and raise them to a middle of the pack farm system.
by Stupendous Man on Aug 20, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
It's a lot stronger than it was in the beginning of the year.
Trades have really transformed this farm. Also keep in mind Martinez, Altuve, Paredes and Lyles have already graduated to the major leagues and are holding their own.
by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 19, 2011 7:11 PM EDT reply actions
DeShields
John, I’m not a scout, but I saw DeShields play earlier this year, and you can really tell something is up with his attitude. He went up and swung at everything, sulked around, didn’t seem to put in much effort. He looks “too cool for school.” Don’t know if you have heard that elsewhere or not.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Aug 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT reply actions
Austin
has horrible body language at times when I have seen him as well.
I completely disagree with them being a top 20 system though, not with the graduations. They are getting better, but still got work to do.
detroitbaseballpage.com
Three top fifty prospects and solid/average high upside B-/C+ depth
Is not a top twenty system?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
For perspective:
The average system (not to be confused with “median”, but it’s still a good way to look at things): Ought to have three top 100 prospects. One in the top 30, one in the top 60, and one in the top 90.
I think that large gap between the top three prospects and the B-/C+ guys kind of hurts the Astros system, but not to the point of knocking them out of the top 20. 15-20th sounds about right.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
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