Los Angeles Angels 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
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I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Los Angeles Angels. This list was originally published January 1, 2011. We will look at the New York Mets on Monday, the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday, the Houston Astros on Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, and the Cleveland Indians to finish things off next Saturday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Mike Trout, OF, Grade A: Hitting .326/.418/.535 with nine homers, 44 walks, 69 strikeouts, 32 steals in 325 at-bats for Double-A Arkansas. Hit .163 in 14 major league games but nobody is holding that against him. Excellent defense to go with the bat. All in all, a wonderful prospect.
2) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Grade B: 4.07 ERA with 67/61 K/BB in 128 major league innings, 138 hits. The components don't support the ERA, but he was pushed to the majors with almost no Triple-A experience, and overall has held his own.
3) Jean Segura, 2B, Grade B: Hit .276/.343/.428 in 37 games for High-A Inland Empire, 18 steals, handling conversion to shortstop well, before going down with serious hamstring injury in late May.
4) Jordan Walden, RHP, Grade B: 2.74 ERA with 49/19 K/BB in 46 innings for the Angels, 36 hits, 26 saves. Excellent rookie season.
5) Garrett Richards, RHP, Grade B: 12-2, 3.06 ERA with 100/40 K/BB in 141 innings for Arkansas, 120 hits, 1.34 GO/AO. Adapting well to the high minors, just promoted to the majors this week.
6) Fabio Martinez Mesa, RHP, Grade B: Has missed entire year with shoulder problems.
7) Hang Conger, C, Grade B-: Hitting .214/.297/.357 in 154 at-bats for the Angels, 17 walks, 33 strikeouts, caught just 17% of runners. Sent back to Triple-A, hitting .321/.402/.556 in 22 games so far for Salt Lake.
8) Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .308/.367/.451 with 17 walks, 48 strikeouts in 182 at-bats for Orem in the Pioneer League. Defense is unreliable at this point.
9) Randal Grichuk, OF, Grade B-: Just 28 games this year split between Low-A Cedar Rapids and rehab assignment in Arizona Rookie League, hitting .229/.272/.343 combined. Missed most of season with fractured kneecap.
10) Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Grade B-: Tommy John surgery.
11) Mark Trumbo, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .258/.300/.488 with 22 homers, 20 walks, 84 strikeouts in 387 at-bats for the Angels. Power obviously impressive, but poor OBP was predicted by minor league performance.
12) Alexi Amarista, 2B, Grade C+: .304/.350/.427 with 17 walks, 39 strikeouts, 11 steals for Salt Lake, .146/.176/.229 in 48 major league at-bats. Best attribute is defense.
13) Daniel Tillman, RHP, Grade C+: 2.13 ERA with 67/32 K/BB in 63 innings, 51 hits, 1.81 GO/AO, 10 saves for Cedar Rapids. Would like to see the walks come down, but overall a strong season.
14) Mike Kohn, RHP, Grade C+: 2.72 ERA with 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings for Salt Lake, 33 hits. 7.30 ERA with 9/9 K/BB in 12 innings for the Angels, 14 hits. Not much left to prove in the minors, but needs to work out his command issues against major league hitters.
15) Trevor Reckling, LHP, Grade C+: 3.73 ERA with 63/35 K/BB in 99 innings for Arkansas, 104 hits. On DL with elbow trouble. Better performance than last year, but still not up to earlier expectations.
16) Chevez Clarke, OF, Grade C+: .210/.279/.406 with 13 walks, 44 strikeouts in 138 at-bats for AZL Angels. Second year at this level with no skill growth. Has the tools but doesn't know how to use them.
17) Donn Roach, RHP, Grade C+: 3.72 ERA with 50/17 K/BB in 58 innings for Cedar Rapids, 63 hits, 3.88 GO/AO. Extreme ground ball ratio carried over from rookie ball. I was hoping they would use him as a starter.
18) Luis Jimenez, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .294/.339/.496 with 14 homers, 20 walks, 56 strikeouts in 391 at-bats for Arkansas. His defense isn't terrible. Bat has a lot of potential though he is another guy with a low walk rate.
19) Jeremy Moore, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .295/.331/.533 with 19 doubles, 14 triples, 12 homers, 14 steals, 18 walks, 95 strikeouts in 349 at-bats. Interesting player. Strong tools, can put up electric performances, but strike zone judgment is quite bad.
20) Taylor Lindsey, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .368/.402/.644 with eight walks, 30 strikeouts in 174 at-bats for Orem. Has made just two errors at second base. Will have to see what his plate discipline looks like at higher levels.
The success of Walden and Trumbo stands out, and Trout will make an even bigger impact when he's ready. I really wish Chatwood had a better K/BB and K/IP ratio. There is some injury attrition here, as well as tools players with bad plate discipline. Tillman and Roach project as relief contributors behind Walden someday.
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Trumbo
Perhaps this belongs in “OBP Rant Thread”, but while I certainly understand the importance of OBP, I feel like it gets too much importance. It is a factor as are other things, such as the HR, which is the best possible thing you can do in the game. Trumbo has an OPS+ of 120, which is pretty darn good, and will battle Hellickson/Pineda for ROY honors in a tough year. Just saying, everything I read about Trumbo is quick to mention poor OBP, but I feel like that slights the positives a bit. I’m not saying he’s a superstar, but he’s a solid player. BTW, this wasn’t directed at John at all, just what I feel like is OBP actually becoming a bit overvalued and reports on Trumbo with regards to that.
Well, to look at another stat, his wOBA is .332, which is right around league average.
I think it is clear that he is not a useless player, but in order to become a special player instead of merely average he needs to get on base more (i.e. stop making so many outs). His ISO of .228 is good for 12th in the AL among qualified players this season, which is ahead of guys like Cano, Youkilis, Kinsler, and Adrian Gonzalez.. So he has very nice power, but ends up giving back a lot of the value it creates by making outs at an above average rate.
the thing is he is a first baseman.
For him to be above average he is going to need to walk more, plain and simple. He can be a solid regular without it, as you mentioned, but without better plate discipline he won’t be able to take his game to the next level.
He is valuable now, a cost controlled player with tremendous power, but when he hits free agency he is pretty much Russell Branyan
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 14, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Give him a chance to develop
The standard for first base isn’t Frank Thomas or bust. Given a few more walks, Trumbo could conceivably turn into a .270/.340/.550 hitter, which would make him a second tier second baseman and if not a true star, then a borderline star.
On the other hand, I give him about a 50-50 chance of being that good. The other possible outcome is that he continues to struggle with plate discipline and never evolves past the .250/.290/.480 level and ends up as a platoon player or starter on a bad team in a few years, once Cron (or even Calhoun) arrives.
But the point is, I know he’s already 25 but this is his rookie year and he deserves a chance to develop before we send him to Balboni-Armas purgatory.
by Angelsjunky7 on Aug 15, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I agree with this for the most part, as well as the above posts (outside of Branyan). He did have 58 BBs in AAA last year, so there is certainly some potential for improvement. I ultimately think he’s a .260/.310/.490 guy for the next 3-5 years, with a better year or two thrown in there.
cowart
Do you mean that the statistics about his defense are unreliable, or that reports are indicating that his defense is unreliable?
For what it's worth
His manager, Tom Kotchman, said he wasn’t concerned about his D at third base over the long term, and pointed towards his athleticism and aptitude. I didn’t take down his exact quote, but it was along the lines of “he’ll be just fine.”
I saw Cowart show great first step quickness, making two diving plays in four games. His hands looked fine when I saw them, though obviously he’s had his issues in the month since. I think he smooths things out.
Hmmm
Problem is that the Angels have now promoted all their upper level prospects & there is a definite gap with the next level.
Cron has murdered evrything at Orem (but so have Lindsey & nearly every position player there).
But with Trumbo/Trout/Richards/Walden/Amarista/Conger ALL up in 11 there is very little left prospect wise at AA or above.
Moore looks like the real deal (& deserves a shot in September or in 12 to displace Wells).
John’s list in 12 will have a definite make over with possibly on 6/7 players held over from the 11 list (ie Cam has to be dropped due TJ as has Mesa)
I really don't think Moore's plate discipline will ever allow him to make it as a starter
4th outfielder at best
"Its like when i’m right…i’m right… and when i’m wrong…i could have been right..so i’m still right cause i could have been wrong"-Chevy Clarke's Twitter
Kole Calhoun
Monster season at Inland .316 /.408 /.542 with 19 HRs so far .Is he for real,John or is it the infamous Cal League park effect?
yep, and
ditto teammate Matt Long…
have to believe both would be in the Angels current top 20 despite being a tad old for A+…
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 15, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like Kole...
…especially because his name sounds like a gunslinger’s.
But he seems exactly the type of hitter the Angels don’t develop: good plate discipline college hitter. I don’t understand why the Angels don’t accelerate him a bit, send him to AA this year. But if he continues at his current pace next year in Arkansas, I imagine he’ll be in Salt Lake before the end of the year, even get a late season call up.
by Angelsjunky7 on Aug 15, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
They already accelerated him
when they sent him to High A instead of Low A this season, which is out of step with their development program.
I think they rightfully worry about pushing him too hard, too quickly. Dillon Baird looked like a similarly interesting project 18 months ago last year, but experienced a significant set back when they pushed him to AA too soon.
Garrett Richards
Current grade? You said in Prospect of the Day he will probably turn into a good innings-eater, do you think he may exceed that and becomes front of the line guy?
Yeah, the farm is thin now
but its because we graduated a lot of guys, and thats is what is supposed to happen, is it not?
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Nope
You are supposed to continually replenish your system. Teams like Rays have promoted plenty of guys over the past few years and continue to have top systems. Toronto has done a similar job (Thames, Lawrie, Cecil, Arencibia, etc have been promoted).
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Aug 14, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
with all the Angels homers on this site
you’d think they have 20 superstars waiting in the wing. Even with Trout the farm system is pretty weak, without him its easily bottom 5
bottom 5? no way
I don’t care about the Angels at all, but seriously: just go back one story to get a sense of what a truly bottom-5 system looks like. Orioles are pretty bad too (after Machado, and maybe Schoop).
Surprised John isn’t more excited about Jean Segura — he can really hit, and apparently handled the transition to SS well. He’s no worse than the #3 SS prospect in all of baseball right now, and might be #2 (behind Jurickson Profar, and depending on how you feel about Hak-ju Lee; as a Rays homer, I’m probably a little biased here).
by AndrewTorrez on Aug 14, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Without Trout which 5 teams would you have lower?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Aug 14, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought so
Didn’t expect an answer.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's so cute!
That you expect an immediate reply and then sock-puppet rec yourself when — horrors! — I hadn’t checked a thread for a few days. Excelsior to you, sir; you win an internet.
(If any non-idiot cares about the original question: Florida, Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, Oakland, NY Mets, White Sox, Chicago Cubs — just off the top of my head.)
by AndrewTorrez on Aug 18, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
re: Segura
I’m aware that High Desert is easier to hit in than Inland Empire, but it’s interesting to compare 20 year old Nick Franklin’s .275/.356/.411 line this year in the Cal to the 21 year old Segura’s .276/.343/.428 line in the same league. Franklin’s line seems to be considered something of a disappointment (I disagree, but just saying). I’m wondering how people feel about Segura’s performance, as I know there were more than a few people who were expecting him to blow up this year.
re: Segura
Segura started strong and then struggled a bit, then got injured, so it is hard to feel disappointed about his performance when he’s missed most of the season with an injury. But I wouldn’t put too much weight in his triple-slash line, considering he hasn’t played in a couple months.
by Angelsjunky7 on Aug 15, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
segura
I’m not disappointed in Segura. The injury makes it impossible for us to know if his skills genuinely improved over last year.
by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Long term closer
Walden, Tillman or FMM?
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If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Mesa has the most upside, then Walden then Tillman, imo. But Tillman might be the most likely to succeed at the major league level as Walden seems like a bit of an idiot and Mesa’s year long injury is worrisome to say the least.
On the other hand, if a couple years the Angels could have their own version of the Wild Boys, with those three plus Kohn and Carpenter, not to mention Geltz, Berg, and McKiernan. They have the parts to assemble a world class bullpen in a year or two. Let’s see if they can pull it off.
by Angelsjunky7 on Aug 15, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Conger
Do you think he’ll do better in his next call-up? Are you more bullish or bearish on him than you were before based on his major league performance? Personally I liked that he at least had some home run pop, and I’m thinking he’ll get another chance soon with the Mathis/Wilson platoon of doom.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Aug 14, 2011 7:16 PM EDT reply actions
vaguely described shoulder fatigue/soreness
As far as I know, they haven’t gone into more detail than that. I’m pretty sure surgery would have made the news.
Taylor Lindsey
I’ve seen the kid play high school ball as he’s a local. “Bad bodied” for such a young kid. Probably 6’0", 210+ pounds with the frame that could baloon to 230+ if he doesn’t watch it. Surprised he’s playing 2b, thought he’d be a 3B at the next level. He must have really firmed up and improved his quickness. Good power in the bat, the ability to hit 20+ homers
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