Boston Red Sox 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
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Boston Red Sox 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Boston Red Sox. This list was originally published December 27, 2010. We will look the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, the Seattle Mariners on Friday, the Florida Marlins on Saturday, the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, the New York Mets on Monday, and the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Grade B: 3.33 ERA with 50/16 K/BB in 46 innings for Low-A Greenville, 4.86 ERA with 46/20 K/BB in 63 innings for High-A Salem. His Carolina League performance has been rather disappointing statistically and scouting reports are mixed.
2) Drake Britton, LHP, Grade B: 1-11, 7.19 ERA, 66/43 K/BB in 71 innings for Salem, 76 hits. I thought he was a big breakthrough guy, but instead he's been taking pitching lessons from Andrew Brackman and Tyler Matzek.
3) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade B: .227/.273/.245 with 14 walks, 42 strikeouts in 269 at-bats for Triple-A Pawtucket. At this point, it is a serious question whether he'll hit enough to hold a regular major league job, no matter how good his glove is. He's still just 21, so there is time to improve, but I can't say I am optimistic.
4) Josh Reddick, OF, Grade B-: .230/.333/.508 with 33 walks, 39 strikeouts in 191 at-bats for Pawtucket, .338/.385/.554 with 13 walks, 31 strikeouts in 139 at-bats for the Boston Red Sox. He's made definite progress with the strike zone, and he always had the bat speed/power to succeed.
5) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade B-: 0-9, 9.12 ERA with 30/23 K/BB in 50 innings for Double-A Portland, 75 hits. Sent back to High-A, 4.96 ERA with 9/8 K/BB in 16 innings so far for Salem. I know he's young at 21, but collapse in all ratios is disturbing.
6) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .298/.398/.500 with 17 walks, 19 strikeouts, 12 steals in 114 at-bats for Lowell in the New York-Penn League. Defense has been brutal, but the bat has been excellent so far.
7) Oscar Tejeda, 2B, Grade B-: Hitting .256/.310/.346 with 27 walks, 75 strikeouts, 13 steals in 367 at-bats for Portland. Not much to get excited about.
8) Brandon Workman, RHP, Grade B-: 3.92 ERA with 92/29 K/BB in 101 innings for Greenville, 103 hits. Throwing strikes nicely, but turns 23 next week, would like to see what he does above Low-A.
9) Ryan Lavarnway, C, Grade B-: .284/.360/.510 with 25 walks, 47 strikeouts in 208 at-bats for Portland, .331/.414/.640 with 22 walks, 47 strikeouts in 178 at-bats for Pawtucket. 27 homers overall. Has thrown out 37% of runners, made just one error this year, passed ball rates continue to improve and scouting reports on his glove are starting to catch up with the statistics.
10) Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .288/.353/.382 with 38 walks, 87 strikeouts, 11 steals in 406 at-bats for Salem. Extremely error-prone at third base, career .877 fielding percentage. I don't care how good your range is, that's awful. Lack of home run power is also a problem.
11) Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP, Grade B-: 2.34 ERA with 37/11 K/BB in 35 innings for Salem, 4.82 ERA with 57/27 K/BB in 65 innings for Portland, 85 hits. Combined 2.98 GO/AO stands out. I was much higher than him than most people pre-season and I stand by the analysis that he is overlooked, but obviously he needs to do better than this.
12) Felix Doubront, LHP, Grade C+: 3.07 ERA with 65/22 K/BB in 67 innings, 56 hits combined between Portland, Pawtucket, and NY-P rehab assignment for hamstring injury. Fine numbers, just needs to stay healthy. I probably underrated him.
13) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade C+: I was one of the last holdouts on this guy, ranking him higher than a lot of other people. He's been excellent in relief role for Pawtucket, 2.74 ERA, 57/17 K/BB in 46 innings, 39 hits, 13 saves. Still waiting for a real chance, clearly has nothing left to prove in minors.
14) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Grade C+: .296/.339/.511 with 15 homers, 19 walks, 83 strikeouts in 331 at-bats for Portland. Nice to see power outburst, but BB/K ratio remains an issue for me.
15) Yamaico Navarro, INF, Grade C+: Traded to Royals. .252/.357/.452 in 135 Triple-A at-bats, .250/.327/.386 in 44 major league at-bats. He should hang around as a utility player for a while but I don't think he will hit consistently enough to play regularly for a good team.
16) Luis Exposito, C, Grade C+: .238/.298/.370 with 23 walks, 67 strikeouts in 273 at-bats for Pawtucket. 36% of runners caught. Hitting inadequate for regular play right now.
17) Lars Anderson, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .260/.365/.433 with 13 homers, 65 walks, 97 strikeouts in 400 at-bats for Pawtucket. Slow start in the power department, just four homers through the end of June but has hit nine since and has been hot lately, slugging .608 in last 22 games.
18) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: 3.20 ERA with 107/43 K/BB in 104 innings for Pawtucket, 78 hits, 1.35 GO/AO. Made two major league starts and deserves more opportunities.
19) Sean Coyle, 2B, Grade C+: .245/.368/.473 with 11 homers, 48 walks, 79 strikeouts, 14 steals in 294 at-bats for Greenville. Sharp home/road splits, .967 OPS at home, just .689 on the road.
20) Henry Ramos, OF, Grade C+: .250/.290/.365 with 14 walks, 50 strikeouts, 11 steals in 244 at-bats for Greenville. Young and toolsy, hasn't done much hitting yet but just 19 years old.
If the stuff in my email box is any indications, I need to emphasize once again that these are the PRE-SEASON grades and that this is a review of the old list. It is not a new list. Doing a new list is part of the writing process for the 2012 book and I will start doing that in the middle of September once the season is complete.
There is some disappointing stuff at the top of this list, notably Britton as well as Iglesias' failure to grow offensively. However, the development of Reddick and Lavarnway is a big positive, Weiland deserves attention, and Middlebrooks is making progress although he still has room to improve. Coyle and Cecchini are also highly intriguing products of the '10 draft.
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Gotta be a high ceiling
if he can stick at C. Not the special bat that Montero is, but if he can catch, does 2011 Saltalamacchia sound fair as a comp?
by abbreviatedman on Aug 10, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe like Napoli was
he needs to block balls better. If he can do that he’s solid.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Aug 10, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
This has me excited!
Has thrown out 37% of runners, made just one error this year, passed ball rates continue to improve and scouting reports on his glove are starting to catch up with the statistics.
First I’ve heard of scouts coming around on his defense. The Sox organization publicly has always said he’s had the potential to stick behind the plate – but they’re obviously going to say that regardless.
XANDER BOEGARTS
Will be high on this list next year
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Certainly & Brandon Jacobs should be too
Would have to think that Jacobs finally receives some due from most of the usual lists this offseason.
Bryce Brentz has made major improvements since 2010 as well. A handful of 2011 draftees will probably rank relatively highly too & this system should see some shuffling.
Was surprised a bit that Brentz did not make this list intially
although he did have a pretty bad first pro year
brentz
Yeah he was so bad last summer i was really worried. I was too negative on him.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Top 10 prospect in their system now
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by Marisa Ingemi on Aug 10, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
'Pretty bad' doesn't really do it justice
He was awful at Lowell (especially so when considering his profile/resume & the fact that he was nearing 22 in SS play) & I’m not that surprised he was omitted really. I think Jacobs had & has more upside anyways & is the Red Sox position player prospect that was most overlooked in general by many.
Coyle's home/road split
It may be worth noting that Coyle is playing his home games on a field modeled after Fenway, including a smaller version of the Green Monster.
I’m going to a game there next week and will pay attention to what kinds of hits he’s getting there.
Miles Head + Alex Wilson
Unlike the “big names” (ie Ranaudo/Brentz etc°) should get a look on the 2012 list….his .312 /.382 /.540 line deserves it as the power is very intriguing.
Wilson on the other hand has always been rated (2nd rnd in the same draft as Miles) - he is carving up AA this year & deserves some recognition …. ONLY problem is what is his future? A 3/4 starter or a nasty reliever (as he can spot his 4seamer upto 95/96 in short bursts combined with a ++ Slider)
John do you see him in the B- range due to his age (24 already) & limited upside/role ?
Britton
So how do you project Britton to do for the rest of this year and beyond? Is he still a good enough talent to be interesting in the future, or do you see his year this year as his true self?
If we're being honest.....
for a top rated minor league system, that doesn’t appear to be that exciting of a group. I know minor league numbers aren’t really a complete indication of the development of young players, but you have to be a little concerned with the health of The Nation’s farm system. Based on this, I’d have to say the Sox System has taken a few steps back to the pack. Clearly the Rays, Rangers, Braves, Royals and maybe even the Phillies still are the Top 5 minor league systems in the big leagues, with the Red Sox somewhere in the 6-10 range at this point. Thoughts?
These lists are poor indicators of a systems current strength
Consider the breakouts of Coyle, Cechinni, Jacobs, Head, Boegarts, Lavarnway and the Sox hitting prospects are looking as good as I can ever remember. The pitching is pretty poor outside of Weiland but Barnes and Henry Owens should help that
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
good point
about Barnes and Owens, but other systems have improved as well in the draft and have had breakout players. All I’m saying is that I don’t see the Red Sox system being as strong with top flight prospects as say 3 years ago. The AGone trade didn’t help and that’s understandable, but Bowden & Dubront were supposedly big time pitching prospects that seem to be middle relievers now.
I just think the Red Sox do a better job at overvaluing there prospects than other teams do, which is why they can make trades for AGone and be comfortable moving a “top flight starting pitcher” like Casey Kelly and Mr. Sickels adds, “He throws strikes and has made some progress, but the numbers still don’t quite match his reputation. Product of Red Sox hype?”
top systems don't necessarily have to have a "top flight prospect" having depth is very valuable.
The Red Sox have a lot of depth and many promising prospects. A top 20 list obviously isn’t going to show that, which is why (as Lesterfan said) its not exactly a good indicator of a farm systems strength.
In response to your second paragraph I think hype does play a factor for sure. Big market teams always hype their prospects up. But I think the Red Sox willingness to trade certain top guys is because they believe/believed they have/had enough depth. Besides being able to acquire such a player like Adrian Gonzalez was a no-brainer. There aren’t many prospects in all of baseball that a GM wouldn’t of sent for him.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 10, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes
Reyes’ numbers look downright awful right now. That’s because they are, and he has no business being in AAA right now. However, the Sox’ priority is to develop their players, not score well on websites’ prospect rankings lists. If Iglesias were where his bat dictates he should be (A+, MAYBE AA if he’d performed well earlier in the season) then he might look like a better prospect than he does now based on the numbers.
Jays are top 5.
I don’t think Phillies are in there.
No....but
IMHO he is just scratching the surface of his potential & is definitely a top 20 in the system but for now would be definitely in the 10-15 range.It all depends on what you like low floor/hi ceiling he is a TOP 10 guy but if you add in hi floor/low ceiling guys (eg Alex Wilson) he falls 2/3 spots.
Plus adding in 2011 draftees/IFAs he may even drop into 15-20 range (thats if they sign Matthew Barnes Blake Swihart Henry Owens Jackie Bradley Senquez Golson ) PLUS already signed Williams Jerez/Jordan Weems
by frenchredsox on Aug 10, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
He should be at this point
In my opinion. However, he’s been overlooked in the past & his lack of defensive value & contact rates could be used against him by the non-believers. He’s got oodles of ability though & probably has the highest offensive ceiling currently on the Boston farm (again, in my opinion).
yes
Top 10 should probably look something like (in no particular order):
Jacobs
Brentz
Middlebrooks
Cecchini
Lavarnway
Barnes
Bradley
Swihart
Coyle
Xanadu “Humphrey” Bogarts
If Weiland is still eligible, he sneaks in, most likely replacing Bradley.
nope
I’ve never really cared much for him, and he hasn’t done anything to change my mind. Still a back of the rotation type with intriguing potential if moved to the pen.
Didnt you forget Iglesias & Doubront ?
I know both have MLB service time but not enough to be not considered prospects.
by frenchredsox on Aug 10, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
don't think so
I actually like Doubront a lot but I think he might be better suited to the pen.
As for Iglesias, it’s been a disaster of a year for him. I wasn’t expecting a great year statistically out of him, but he’s shown no skill growth whatsoever, and if anything he’s regressed. The track record isn’t good enough to give him much of a pass.
MIchael Bowden
He’s thrived in the closer role. Only chance he ends up a closer anywhere? Or is his ceiling a set up man for Bard?
Problem is he really that good?
What I mean is that with all the injuries the Sox have had to SPs & RPs they haven’t called on Bowden regularly….they ve stuck with Wheeler,traded for Morales & used Atchison etc.
Not saying that he isnt a prospect but apart from his 4 seamer all his other pitches are just average or below which seems to limit him to more of a middle reliever rather than an 8th inning man .That isn’t bad but a definite downside on his draft position in 05 & his expectations prior to this season.
He may not even crack John’s top 20 in 2012 (With 2011 draftee/IFA additions & breakouts by guys like Jacobs/Head/Vinicio/Boggaerts)
Could have a better chance of career outside of Boston IMHO.
by frenchredsox on Aug 10, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Kyle Weiland
He’s someone I’m interested in. Can he be a 4.00-4.50 ERA starter in the AL East next season?
Jeremy Hazelbaker
Is he a legit spec? Is his defense going to stick in CF? I see that he’s his K rates are less than ideal.
I think he can stick at center
I’ve always loved his power/speed combination but his K-rate is absolutely ghastly and unless he makes huge improvements I don’t see him as a starter
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Cecchini is out for the year with a broken wrist. Too bad he was starting to heat up after a slow start.
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Middlebrooks
Good write-up of Middlebrooks and what he’s doing well and what he needs to work on at http://forum-soxprospects.com/reply/282626/2011-Portland-Sea-Dogs-First-Hand-Report-Thread#reply-282626. On the walks issue that John mentions: "People have pointed at Middlebrooks’ approach and walk totals this season, but I haven’t really seen his selectivity as a huge underlining issue. He typically works counts and swings at good pitches, while putting them hard into play. There are times when Middlebrooks should take in a hitter’s count and swings, but I think he’ll continue to tighten up and adjust as the level of pitching advances in Triple-A/beyond. By nature of the type of hitter he is, he’s going to strike out and swing/miss with some frequency. Given that he can make pitchers pay and drives balls well, I see his future walk totals will be a product of having to be fine against him. "
Wow
So its safe to assume you think he’ll be a better major leaguer than Kalish in terms of future success and indicates you don’t think its a one year wonder/fluke?
by gobruins12345 on Aug 11, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Kalish
might have the same grade, actually. I have a hard time believing that Reddick has suddenly reinvented himself as a .300 hitter, but I’m not watching him with any regularity.
by blackoutyears on Aug 11, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Reddick vs. Kalish
Has Reddick pushed ahead of Kalish in Boston’s long-term plans?
I'd imagine this is impossible to answer
considering everything that has transpired thus far this season: Kalish missing the majority of the season, Reddick’s improved eye and Elsbury’s huge bounceback campaign. Therefore, it’s likely the Sox are thinking more short term and yes, Reddick is likely now ahead of Kalish on the pecking order.
Bryce Brentz probably not too far behind either
Who has played mostly in RF throughout his pro career. With Carl Crawford & Jacoby Ellsbury in tow, he & one of Josh Reddick/Ryan Kalish is likely to be somewhat superfluous.
Brandon Jacobs is an interesting case to me too as he almost assuredly has to stay in LF yet said position will likely be manned by Carl Crawford for the better part of the decade due to his contract which I’d have to assume will be near umoveable. Assuming Jacobs continues to progress (which I think he will), the Sox could have a high impact trade piece on their hands in the coming years with no readymade position at the big league level (except DH of course). Probably a fool’s errand to speculate this far ahead but something to think about I guess.
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