Atlanta Braves 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 1, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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Atlanta Braves Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, beginning the new month with the Atlanta Braves. This list was originally published October 21, 2010. We will look at the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, the San Diego Padres on Thursday, the New York Yankees on Friday, and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade A: 12-1, 1.90 ERA, 99/32 K/BB in 114 innings, 90 hits, at age 20 for Triple- Gwinnett. For some bizarre reason that I can't understand, a few people seem disappointed in this, but I don't see how or why this can be spun as anything but a terrific year.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade A-: Hitting .297/.365/.479 with 15 homers, 39 walks, 96 strikeouts in 384 major league at-bats. Pretty damn good for a 21-year-old rookie I would say.
3) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B+ 3.14 ERA with 91/24 K/BB in 95 innings for Gwinnett, 4.59 ERA with 26/15 K/BB in 33 major league innings. Just needs a chance.
4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B+: 4.00 ERA with 103/45 K/BB in 110 innings for Double-A Mississippi, 111 hits. I think he will need a year of Triple-A, but he's only 21 so that's not a real surprise.
5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B: Season split between three levels: 2.45 ERA with 37/10 K/BB in 40 innings for High-A Lynchburg, 3.81 ERA with 55/18 K/BB in 50 innings for Mississippi, 2.25 ERA with 6/0 K/BB in four relief innings for Gwinnett. Just 20 years old. He's doing fine.
6) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: 2.04 ERA with 84/21 K/BB in 53 innings for the Braves, 33 hits, 31 saves. Obviously no complaints here, I should have given him the B+.
7) Matt Lipka, SS, Grade B: .236/.293/.279 for Low-A Rome, 19 steals, 30 walks, 60 hits in 398 at-bats. Total lack of power will be a major handicap unless it improves. Just 19 years old but stock down significantly in my eyes.
8) Carlos Perez, LHP, Grade B: 5.02 ERA with 91/42 K/BB in 100 innings for Rome, 114 hits, 1.46 GO/AO. Has the power sinker, but command needs a lot of work. Just 19 years old.
9) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Grade B-: 3.27 ERA with 91/27 K/BB in 85 innings for the Braves, 74 hits. Very successful rookie season.
10) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade B-: Pitched well as a starter for Mississippi (2.84 ERA, 65/21 K/BB in 67 innings, 52 hits) but converted to relief anyway and has been strong (1.56 ERA with 18/7 K/BB in 17 innings, 13 hits). I would have given him a chance to start at higher levels but they didn't ask me.
11) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Grade B-: .291/.328/.368 with 20 walks, 37 strikeouts in 378 at-bats for Lynchburg, 16 steals. Strong defense. Bat is questionable but he makes contact.
12) Michael Dunn, LHP, Grade B-: 3.75 ERA with 57/28 K/BB in 50 major league innings, 38 hits. Successful rookie season.
13) Todd Cunningham, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .273/.365/.368 with 11 steals, 21 walks, 30 strikeouts for Lynchburg in 220 at-bats before getting hurt, just started rehab assignment in Gulf Coast League.
14) Edward Salcedo, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .267/.334/.448 with 32 walks, 81 strikeouts, 11 homers, 14 steals in 386 at-bats for Low-A Rome. Just turned 20, has made substantial progress turning tools into skills, stock moving up.
15) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade C+: Hit .303/.323/.430 with eight walks, 27 strikeouts in 221 at-bats for Rome, but just .237/.242/.289 with one walk and 18 strikeouts in 97 at-bats for Lynchburg. 19 years old. Approach at plate is weak but he still has time. Has thrown out 39% of runners but gives up a lot of errors and passed balls.
16) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C+: Picked in Rule 5 draft by Twins, then traded there. 5.17 ERA with 74/34 K/BB in 101 innings for Triple-A Rochester, 126 hits, 1.56 GO/AO. Still a chance he could be useful but stock down.
17) Steven Kent, LHP, Grade C+: He was excellent in 2010, but was so bad in 2011 (7.77 ERA with 74 hits allowed in 49 innings for Rome) that he got released. I knew I was taking a chance with this one but he really disappointed.
18) Mychal Jones, SS, Grade C+: .240/.357/.379 with four steals, 39 walks, 57 strikeouts in 233 at-bats for Mississippi. This won't get it done, especially now that he's an outfielder.
19) Benino Pruneda, RHP, Grade C+: 4.05 ERA with 53/31 K/BB in 47 innings for Rome, 39 hits. Still has the strong K/IP ratio, but command is too wobbly.
20) Joe Leonard, 3B, Grade C+: .259/.323/.408 with 28 walks, 62 strikeouts in 294 at-bats for Lynchburg, defensive performance mediocre as well. Disappointing.
21) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Grade C+: Just trade to Astros in Michael Bourn deal. 3.74 ERA with 93/42 K/BB in 128 innings for Mississippi, 119 hits. Decent season overall.
22) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .291/.345/.557 with 12 homers, 16 walks, 76 strikeouts in 237 at-bats for Lynchburg, good power but walk rate is low. Currently on disabled list with sore knee.
23) Paul Clemens, RHP, Grade C+: Traded to Astros in Bourn deal. 3.73 ERA with 93/44 K/BB in 109 innings for Mississippi, 103 hits. Solid season, making progress.
24) Dave Filak, RHP, Grade C+: 7.54 ERA with 32/33 K/BB in 45 innings for Rome resulted in demotion to short-season Danville, where he has a 7.42 ERA with a 25/9 K/BB in 30 innings and 45 hits allowed. Quite disappointing given solid start to his pro career in '10.
The system still needs more hitting depth in general. Of course, Freeman has been great, and most of the pitching on his list is doing well.
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Team Edward
By Oct. 1, Edward Salcedo is (barely) a top 100 prospect? Discuss.
I think he is.
It’s hard to say without listing them all out, but I think he might make the lists comfortably.
He really made a significant amount of progress this year, making his chances of reaching an incredibly high ceiling more likely.
I don't think anyoone is saying this is a dissappointing year. (Teheran)
I just think people are saying others have taken a step in front of him.
Who?
The only one I would rank above him is Moore. Teheran is still a 20 year old putting up ridiculous numbers in AAA.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 1, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Numbers numbers numbers.
There better me a better excuse than numbers? I think the misconception that he is dropping comes from the fact that Teheran was overrated last year.
Leads the IL in ERA my a half run.
And over a run better than 3rd place.
You could call this standing apart from him peers if he wasn’t so much younger than all of them.
Once again, you brought up ERA.
But we all know that ERA is not really tht indicative of how a player will peform in the major leagues.
Pointing out the peripherals is reasonable, but
…do keep in mind that the kid started in Low-A last year and just turned 20. He has held his own at each level, though a couple of peripherals have declined. Maybe climbing 4 / 5 levels in just over a year has something to do with that.
ARL, scouting reports, and projectability factored into his high rating last year. None of that has really changed. So, let’s just add the incredible differential in ERA at the AAA level to that this year.
Give me a quick personal scouting reprot on Teheran.
Do me the favor, please. Because I have not liked any of the reports I have read, especially regarding his fastball. I don’t care if you can average 93 mph if it is straight and you don’t command it well.
Scouting report
I feel like I am hardly qualified to do that despite having seen Teheran pitch in person a half dozen times.
When I have seen him pitch, he’s been great, allowing no more than a run or two in any start I have seen.
I guess his fastball is deceptively quick. That probably helps his pus change. And he’s made some very good hitters look silly.
Other than that, I can only tell you what I have read, but that would not be adding anything to the discussion. I am surprised that you have not liked what you have read about him. Usually, a bunch of negative reports will not get a guy so highly regarded.
Don't take my comments the wrong way. I think Teheran will be very good.
Do I think he will be an ace? No, probably not. Do I think he is a little overrated? Yes, probably.
What I see in him is an advanced pitcher with an above average fastball (due to its movement), a plus changeup (even if it is inconsistent), a average curveball, and average command.
Are you saying that’s what he is now or what he will be?
Right now I’d say the plus change is mostly consistent, and the curveball is sometimes plus. I’d also point out that command is where most pitchers improve with repetitions, and thus age. Other than that I’d pretty much agree with you.
If you say he’s in AAA and pretty much done developing, which is what the skeptics seem to be saying, you have a #2-3 SP.
If you say he’s only 20 yro and can learn plenty more, which is what the optimists seem to be saying, you have a potential ace.
I’m an optimist in this case.
Your post above:
“Because I have not liked any of the reports I have read, especially regarding his fastball. I don’t care if you can average 93 mph if it is straight and you don’t command it well.”
Now:
“What I see in him is an advanced pitcher with an above average fastball (due to its movement)”
Which is it?
by cookiedabookie on Aug 1, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear "plus fastball" always being thrown around for him.
It is not a plus pitch at all, imo. That is what I am saying.
fip
Teheran FIP in AAA, 2011: 2.75
Teheran FIP in AA, 2010: 3.30
Teheran FIP in High A, 2010: 2.88
You might not want to use ERA or even FIP as the be-all end-all (for obvious reasons that others far more doctrinally inclined than myself will gladly go over), but even if you’re not a fan of Teheran’s peripherals, it’s clear that he’s made a LOT of progress in the last year. There is more reason to like him this year than there was last year, although of course he does have work to do.
Home runs baby!
Joking title aside, that’s really the issue. xFIP is more predictive than is FIP because xFIP normalizes HR/FB rates. Teheran’s HR rates are (these are from FirstInning so they aren’t HR/FB):
2010
Low A: 2%
High A: 6%
AA: 3%
2011
AAA: 2%
Aside from the Giants’ pitching staff (seriously, it’s a statistical anomaly no one has been able to explain), it has been shown fairly convincingly that pitchers do not have any control over their HR/FB rates, so the above pattern is pretty random. It explains why his FIP increase from Low to High A last year was so dramatic even though his peripherals actually improved slightly, and why the increase upon reaching AA was less than expected (as his peripherals dropped a ton, but his HR rate
fell by half)
This year he’s kept the ball in the park, but that really doesn’t tell you anything about his FUTURE performance which is what we care about. So his FIP this year masks his true talent, because its measuring his current performance as if the HR limitation was a skill, which it isn’t.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
ahme
Teheran was overrated last year.
seriously? 12-1 with a 1.90 ERA as a 20 year old in AAA. if anything, he was underrated last year. he might have been a tad overrated at the beginning of the season, but he’s still an ace and, in his prime, a top-5 pitcher in all of baseball.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 1, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
he's an ace for his AAA team, which would lead me to "jump" to his ability to do it in the ML level
care to back up why you think he’s not an ace?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 2, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Because he is displaying “ace-like” qualities while learning to pitch and making adjustments in the toughest environment in minor league baseball. While being one of the youngest guys in the league. Throw in the league leading statistics and you just have a pretty comfortable assumption.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 2, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Still didn't answer my question
Who has moved past him other than Moore? He definitely wasn’t overrated last year, and was the consensus #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. And even though his peripherals have declined, they are still excellent, especially when taking ARL into consideration.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 1, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
As noted above...
ARL for pitchers isn’t all that relevant. If he was a 20 year old hitter, then it’d be incredibly meaningful (because he’d be four years from even entering his power prime), but as it is…it just means he’s four years away from passing the injury nexus, so there’s also a downside as well as an upside to the youth. I wouldn’t put that much weight on it.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
While the injury nexus is a valid concern in considering his probable outcome, it has nothing to do with his ceiling, and it has zero relevance in comparing him to prospects of the same age.
Age has plenty to say about his upside because his command and consistency can be expected to improve, and therefore ARL is relevant. Now how many pitching prospects have survived, let alone dominated, AAA at age 20?
So let me get this straight...
ARL isn’t all that relevant for pitchers? Is he not pitching to older, more developed hitters than in the lower minors? Upper minors hitters are the hitters that are supposed to have figured out or are closer to figuring out how to hit off speed pitches and the better fastballs as well as hitters that have been in the majors before. That he hasn’t fully developed his pitches at his age and is still having a very good year in AAA and has had good years at virtually every level should be pretty relevant.
by Looney4baseball on Aug 1, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That's right, it isn't.
There are a number of ways you can tell someone who’s followed prospects for a while, but one of the big ones to me is when you see someone quoting ARL about a pitcher. I’ll have to look to see if I can find the study, but it’s been shown pretty conclusively that age for a pitcher just doesn’t mean that much relative to their level, and the reason why is simple:
Older pitchers are also facing those older, more developed hitters than in the low minors. The hitting side of the equation is entirely irrelevant to ARL, and I mean literally 100% irrelevant. It’s an absolute failure of analysis, and it doesn’t even make sense because it implies that a younger pitcher is facing different competition at the same level as an older guy. That’s not what ARL means.
Age Relative to League largely refers to players age relative to their counterparts in the league (i.e. you separate pitchers and hitters). Why? Because as John likes to point out all the time, pitchers and hitters are very, very different as prospects. Let’s look at how so for age:
Hitters tend to develop in a linear fashion. What I mean by that, is that they tend to hit for more power as they age, with most players entering what is often called the “power prime” at age 24, peaking at age 27, and then plateauing until some point in their 30s where they begin to decline. Things like plate discipline and defense are trickier, as development there is nowhere near as linear as it is with power, and you can never expect that a young player will develop either just because they’re young…they just might because they have a longer time to make advancements in those areas than an older player.
Pitchers on the other hand don’t really develop in the same linear fashion. A pitcher’s velocity can peak at age 18, age 21, or age 27…it all depends on that player’s body and mechanics. Some guys throw 100 mph at 18, but then lose some of that as their body fills out because they lose their mechanics. Others go from throwing in the mid 80s at 18 to throwing 95 a couple years later because they’ve added strength. Others gain a couple mph in their mid 20s for similar reasons. However, there’s no real linear "aging curve’ for pitchers velocity, it varies from case to case. Its similar with breaking pitches. Some pitchers are able to add entirely new pitches to their repertoire, while others fail to every develop secondary stuff. As with velocity, there is no real aging curve…there’s a degree of luck (randomness really) when it comes to adding secondary pitches, and age doesn’t have all that much to do with it. Even command and control aren’t really that correlated to age. There’s no linear pattern to improving command or control…some guys can, some guys can’t. Perhaps a 21 year old has slightly better odds of learning to command his stuff than a 25 year old…but the difference isn’t that huge. Factor in that the 25 year old is less of an injury risk than the 21 year old, and you’ve got a bit of a wash.
So yeah, overall ARL isn’t all that relevant for pitchers.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
Some thoughts on this
First, I think you summarize the differences in the aging curves of skill sets nicely. However, I think it’s a mistake to focus strictly on the physical parts of the pitcher’s curves, and omit the mental part of the game that can be so important for some pitchers.
I don’t think we should ignore ARL for pitchers entirely; perhaps you’re not trying to be so adamant here, but it kind of comes across that way.
Second, I would enjoy seeing the link to that study, if you are indeed able to find it. My casual observation on a lot of baseball studies (“sabermetrics”, if you will) is that the study designs are not great, and are further compounded by a failure to report (or consider) statistical power – that is, the ability to detect an effect if there is indeed one. Similarly, many of them are not set up to detect effects at the subpopulation level. Right handers might get injured no more frequently than left handers, but that doesn’t mean that certain TYPES of righties aren’t still more vulnerable than their lefty counterparts. Maybe ARL is not important for stud pitchers with great skills, but it could be for junkballers, for example.
The devil’s in the design of these studies, and we should all get furrowed brows when we see results come back stating there’s no effect of something that makes intuitive sense to have an effect. So if you can track it down, I’d love to read it for myself.
I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls.
John does good analysis...
I cannot imagine he’s using ARL as a critical factor by any stretch of the imagination.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
Just at a quick glance above
He mentions age for Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Perez. I did not look past that.
Despite your imagination, John seems to have a differing opinion from the above of ARL for pitchers, and I do too.
Literally, just mentions their age...
Guess what? When I’m writing about a prospect, I typically note their age too.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
I think he will need a year of Triple-A, but he's only 21 so that's not a real surprise.
That’s the line for Delgado.
It seems like stretch to assume John does not consider ARL for pitchers.
ARL
I do look at it for pitchers. It is A LOT more important for hitters, for the reasons stated above, but I don’t think it is completely irrelevant for pitchers.
by John Sickels on Aug 3, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you John. Particularly, I think a positive ARL simply means that a pitcher has more time to make the necessary adjustments to become a successful Major Leaguer. Another major consideration involves the typical shelf life of a pitcher. An older breakout guy is more likely, in my mind, to end up in the bullpen because teams aren’t willing to waste prime years to groom pitchers as starters just so they can start to tail off physically when they’re ready to contribute. Finally, youth gives pitchers a chance to mature physically. It can obviously work the other way, but when you’re talking about a beanpole guy at AAA at age 19, the considerations are way different than for a beanpole guy at age 25.
Furthermore, there is a major correlation between prospects that advance faster and good prospects (though this isn’t causation, it’s still my general rule of thumb that a younger prospect is probably a better prospect). Obviously there are cases in which ARL doesn’t matter (see Ogando, Alexi) but I find it a necessary and useful part of the analysis.
Still do not agree
I appreciate the time you put into the explanation and would be most curious to see the study you reference. I won’t take the time to reiterate the argument made by others or the conventional wisdom of pitching development, but your logic is not convincing to me.
Maybe, it is semantics and we are primarily talking about experience relative to league. But there is still some physical maturation that happens with a guy in his early 20s. By my observation, pitchers seem to get better as they mature from this age.
I guess part of my point would be...
That while some pitchers do get better as they mature, many others don’t, and you have to look at guys on a case by case basis to try and determine which category they fall into (i.e. do they have clean mechanics that could add velocity with more muscle? Do they have complex mechanics that may be hard to maintain as they fill out? The analysis involved has to go a lot deeper than just “he’s 19, so he’ll get better”). I consider ARL with pitchers do be one of those “old school” baseball beliefs that never really had any evidence behind it. It’s an issue of having an expectation that an event may occur when the probability of that event may not be that high, and it tends to ignore the negative probabililities (i.e. that a guy will lose velocity, or lose command, let alone get injured).
Just to pluck a name from the air because he just hit the MLB, think about a guy like Blake Beavan. He’s been young at every level, yet he’s basically the same pitcher he was in A-ball, and that pitcher has worse stuff than the high school variety of Blake Beavan. Baseball history is just littered with guys like him. TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) was not coined for no reason (TINSTAAPP is kind of a great example of the kind of argument I’m making here; no one truly believes there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, just as no one thinks that age is entirely irrelevant to pitching prospects. It’s just a way of emphasizing that the complexity of the issue is way to great to make generalized statements like “young pitchers should improve as they mature”…maybe they will, but it’s a ton more complicated than that).
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Aug 3, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not good enough with prospects that I can name who right off of the top of my head.
I like to go really in depth, so I can’t give you a number right now. I want to say that he is somewhere in the top 5 pitching prospects though, probably. Miller has jumped him probably. Like I said, I wait till the end of the year so I can recollect an stuff, but I want to say Moore and Miller for (almost) sure.
Let’s compare Miller to Teheran
Teheran is actually younger than Miller, pitching in AAA, and has similar rate stats (2.75 FIP, 3.09 K/BB) as Miller in AA (2.69 FIP, 3.10 K/BB). It seems to me to be a bit of shiny new toy syndrome going on with the devaluing of Teheran and the rise up the prospect lists for Miller in some midseason rankings. I would still rank them very close, with Teheran probably a spot higher than Miller right now.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 1, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but you're still citing numbers. That's like saying that Barry Bonds was a good hitter because he had great numbers....
Oh wait…
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 1, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
These two players are totally comparable!
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 1, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Sean Rodriguez is much more comparable to Teheran than Bonds.
I don’t like totally using minor league stats because they are not that indicative of major league performance.
And you are still bringing numbers.....
Look, I get he is great statistically. I just don’t like the low Ks (and I know the low walks are not because he has plus command) and I don’t think the stuff is that good.
Miller, imo, has better stuff than Teheran.
And like I said, physical maturity is something more fans should look in to. BJ Upton was physically mature at a very young age while Tim beckham isn’t even there. In sports like basketball, you see 17 year olds who are as mature as men.
I am using numbers
under the assumption that the quality of each from a scouting viewpoint on their stuff has been established. No way does Teheran become a top two pitching prospect last year if the scouting reports didn’t match the numbers. Miller has a better fastball, sure, but Teheran has better secondaries, and so far, better results at a higher level at a younger age.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 1, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Miller has NOT jumped Miller
I’m not good enough with prospects
so, keep your opinions to yourself
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 2, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
subject line fail
Miller hasn’t jumped Teheran.
Moore has, probably, because of the Ks, but Miller? LOL
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 2, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Moore has because his command has drastically improved
The only knock on him is no longer much of an issue. Teheran hasn’t dropped in my eyes, Moore has just blown by him.
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Overrated last year?
If anything, Julio Teheran was probably underrated at the onset of ’10.
I think some people placed a bit too much stock in Teheran’s two spot starts, both of which were pretty disappointing but that’s likely just due to butterflies in the stomach.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Aug 1, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the issue...
Really just comes down to peripherals. His k-rate is the lowest it’s ever been outside of 37.2 IP in single A at age 18, while his walk rate is his 2nd worst behind his time in AA last year. Add in that his groundball rate has leveled off at 42%, and you’ve got a decline in peripherals across the board. The W-L record and the ERA are shiny and will seduce people, but in terms of analyzing his future, they’re irrelevant.
Just to illustrate the peripherals point, this time last year Beachy was striking out 4% more batters while walking half as many as Teheran, and had a slightly greater GB% to boot…and he got a B-. Now the Beachy grade is one I quibbled with at the time, and he’s proven resoundingly that his numbers deserved a ton more respect than he got, but the comparison is one that bears mentioning. I mean…Beachy was in his first year as a true starter in 2010, so you can’t even say “well, look how much older he was!” because in terms of actual pitching experience (which is really what matters, ARL isn’t anywhere near as important for pitchers as for hitters) he was about as experienced as Teheran was at that point.
So yeah…Beachy got a B- while being more dominant at that level than Teheran has been, with similar experience as a pitcher. So unless Teheran can make up that gap, he projects to be a lesser SP than Beachy already is (Beachy’s MLB peripherals are better than Teheran’s AAA numbers…), so unless Beachy is a retroactive A given his performance, I have a hard time seeing Teheran as an A.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Aug 1, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
while I'm as big a fan of anti-ARL as you'll find
It sounds like you just said that you’re projecting Brandon Beachy to be a better SP than Julio Teheran.
...
His peripherals are better in the MLB than Teheran’s are in AAA. It’s far from impossible that Teheran will improve his production and match what Beachy is doing, but the point is…Beachy’s production is already phenomenal at the MLB level, so Teheran’s got a ways to climb just to match where Beachy’s at now.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
I see your Blake Beavan and Brandon Beachy
and i raise you one Tommy Hanson. For all of this talk, samples being thrown out. You can just as easily cherry pick someone from the other side of the argument to show how much age and maturation do matter. The kid can just flat out pitch, watch him live and you can’t argue with it. Watching him, he always seems to have a game plan and not just an intention to go strike out as many guys as he can. Also, remember the Braves system, they have a certain way of developing their boys in the minors. Some things they allow, some things they do not.
Also, you mentioned pitching experience. While there may not be a lot of evidence to prove this one way or another, you can’t just make a blanket statement saying the PE of Beachy and Teheran is the same. With these international guys you never really know what the level of PE they have attained really is. In the Braves system, the difference I see between these two is that with Beachy they were “No Holds Barred” sort of philosophy. I mean the thought process to me seemed to be, “We got this guy for peanuts, he is already a man, let’s throw him out there and see what he can do!” No restrictions for types of pitches, regimen, training, etc, etc. I feel there is much more to this argument on an individual basis than to just throw something over every pitcher in MiLB.
If that isn’t what you are saying then I apologize! But to my eyes, this is really coming across as “the gospel,” so to speak.
The depth is evaporating quickly
1) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade A: Made an MLB cameo already but will may still have rookie eligibility in the winter.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade A-: Graduated
3) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B+: No longer a rookie but on the AAA – MLB shuttle.
4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B+: Made an MLB cameo already but will probably still have rookie eligibility in the winter.
5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B: Could graduate soon as RP or take 1-2 years as SP.
6) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: Graduated.
7) Matt Lipka, SS, Grade B: (Mildly?) disappointing.
8) Carlos Perez, LHP, Grade B: Mildly disappointing.
9) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Grade B-: Graduated.
10) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade B-: Progressing well.
11) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Grade B-: Progressing well.
12) Michael Dunn, LHP, Grade B-: Traded.
13) Todd Cunningham, OF, Grade B-: Progressing well.
14) Edward Salcedo, 3B, Grade B-: Mild breakout.
15) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade C+: Neutral.
16) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C+: Traded.
17) Steven Kent, LHP, Grade C+: Very disappointing.
18) Mychal Jones, SS, Grade C+: Disappointing.
19) Benino Pruneda, RHP, Grade C+: Neutral.
20) Joe Leonard, 3B, Grade C+: Disappointing.
21) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Grade C+: Traded.
22) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Progressing.
23) Paul Clemens, RHP, Grade C+: Traded.
24) Dave Filak, RHP, Grade C+: Disappointing.
The Braves’ draft this year also has met with mixed reviews thus far. This system could see a sharp decline in the next year or so.
it can
it seems that the Braves have drafted with a weird philosophy. I would have suggested that they have gone for the most high-upside bats they could find in the draft this year. Yet, with Liberty’s purse strings, I’ll wait and see how it plays out in the next 12 months.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 1, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Pah!
Your system will slip when you graduate three ROY candidates in one year. And Minor lost his eligibility without really being in the Majors this year.
Still, Delgado, Teheran and Vizzy will all be prospects next year and there is a lot coming on.
You seem a little more down on a couple of guys than you should be. Bethancourt has had a year of positive development. M. Jones might be neutral too. Check out his isolated power and discipline following a promotion to AA, coupled with some nagging injuries.
I think the Braves have a lot coming on, easily replacing the 2nd and third tier guys. Pastornicky and Spruill should have made this list last year and have improved their stock. Beyond that, you have Drury, Gilmartin, Graham, Terdoslavich, Sanchez, Ahmed, etc.
The other thing is that John Schuerholz seems to have effectively forbidden the team from paying significantly over slot in the draft — hence drafting Gilmartin over Mahtook.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Aug 1, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
ummm
John Schuerholz seems to have effectively forbidden the team from paying significantly over slot in the draft
Lipka signed overslot.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 2, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
They graduated some top talent and have 4-5 upper level arms that will graduate in the next 2 years. That being said, there is still plenty of talent in the organization. Low level guys ready to start moving up RHP A. Espinosa, LHP O. Caicedo, SS J. Peraza, OF E. Daniel, 1B E. Sanchez, 3B B. Drury, SS N. Ahmed, and RHP J.R. Graham. RHP D. Hale and SS T. Pastornicky emerged this year and RHP Z. Spruill re-established his prospect status. With Pastornicky, Milligan, Salcedo, and Bethancourt taking steps forward, the Braves’ position player depth looks much better imo.
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by jeg on Aug 1, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
this
the depth is much better especially after this year’s draft
Cody Martin
This kid is a huge sleeper! He has Kimbrel type stuff with an extra pitch(curveball)
Keep hoping. There will be plenty of new names on this list next season, but it will still be highly regarded.
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by bwellnjonesco on Aug 2, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow
The Braves sure produced some productive players(Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman, Minor) with Teheran, Viz, and Delgado waiting in the wings. And Jason Heyward hasn’t even begun to touch the tip of the iceberg.
And I would give Kimbrel a A- atleast. He’s become one of the best closers in the game.
Of course...
Even as one of the best closers in the game, his value is still limited because of how little he’s pitched. I personally think closers max out at about a B+…there’s only so much value they can generate.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
Well, Aroldis Chapman was a straight A. I’m not saying I think Kimbrel should have been given an A or A-… but in my opinion, a closer this good absolutely should be able to earn an A grade.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Aug 1, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Chapman...
Was (hoped) to be a starter, and therein lies the difference. Kimbrel has always been a reliever. I guess I just think the A and A- grades should be reserved for guys who can make a significant impact, be it by throwing 200+ IP, or by taking 600+ ABs. If you’re maxing out at 80 IP…there’s only so much you can do.
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
Am with you
People seem to go to such lengths to demystify the role of the 9th inning reliever that they discredit truly noteworthy performances in general (such as Craig Kimbrel’s in 2011).
but that 32:3 K:BB ratio in Rookie Ball is petty awful
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 2, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Never know what to do with that.
First of all, it’s 23:3, according to MiLB.
He’s not striking out too much, but he is not walking enough. I never know what to do with that, an 18 year-old in rookie ball. You can’t fault a guy for not taking a pitch when he bangs it off the wall.
By contrast, Freddie Freeman was 33:7 in rookie ball, over 80 more AB and 250 less OPS.
Is Arodys a starter long term?
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Pastornicky ....any ideas where he ranks in this system now? top 12?
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 2, 2011 12:04 AM EDT reply actions
Lipka
How are the reviews of him at SS? Is his stock there up or down from where it was last offseason?
Seems like the Braves had a logjam at SS in the minors and one solution was possibly moving Lipka to CF. Has the situation cleared much?
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his glove
I don’t think anybody’s worrying too much about how his glove looks right now, mainly because of how bad his bat has looked. He’s clearly not going to be on the fast track and is in all likelihood repeating this level next year, so he’ll have plenty of time to work on his defense. Of course, he’s going to need to find much more bat to have a major league future at any position.
Sadly, these sorts of logjam situations seem to resolve themselves much more easily than the teams can manage . . .
Cole Rohrbough
Noticed he started a game in rookie ball the other day, going only one inning. Was his first appearance of 2011, after pitching just 23 innings in 2010.
What’s going on with this one-time sleeper prospect? Has his stuff regressed, or has he been hurt?
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Hurt
He had off season shoulder surgery. he has been on the mend and made his first appearance. Hopefully he gets back on track because I really like him still.
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Andrelton Simmons
11) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Grade B-: .291/.328/.368 with 20 walks, 37 strikeouts in 378 at-bats for Lynchburg, 16 steals. Strong defense. Bat is questionable but he makes contact.
I saw him last week and his D is MLB ready. He will play at an above average MLB SS defensively right now.
Jumped a level
He skipped over Low-A to start the year, and the Braves have to be pleased with how he responded. Not much power though, but I wonder if the injuries in his last year of CC and his split, two-way focus might delay this a little bit.
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