What the hell happened to the "Great" Matt Wieters?
by joltinjoe on Jul 5, 2011 11:58 PM EDT
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PrintSo I've been following prospects/this website for the last 7 or 8 years. I got super excited about Wieters when he was drafted and then proceeded to absolutely destroy minor league pitching. Then baseball prospectus used it's fancy algorithms and super computer to predict what Wieters would do in his rookie year, which was basically a Mike Piazza prime season.
My two favorite (and relied upon sources) are Keith Law and John. Law was constantly gushing about Wieters, citing his scouting sources and his own eyes. John said "Matt Wieters, C, Grade A: Best prospect in baseball. Mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza."
Thus far Wieters has been an above average catcher, but far from the dynamite switch-hitting middle-of-the-order monster that he was advertised as.
One thing I've learned about prospects is that you have to be patient. With greater exposure of prospects, it seems that the majority of us (including myself) overhype prospects and then consider them busts if they don't go nuts immediately ala Braun or Longo.
With that said, I've invested heavily in Wieters in several fantasy leagues and have been incredibly patient waiting for that breakout to occur despite the underwhelming stats to start his career. Here we are in year three of the big leagues and he's still producing at very mediocre levels. At what point do I concede that the Piazza/Mauer mutant we all expected will never occur? And what went wrong? Why did he go from a prodigious hitter in college and the minors to a below avg hitter in the majors?
I just don't get it.
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Its because every Orioles prospect sucks when they hit the majors.
Machado will be one of the top prospects in baseball but the second they put him in an Oriole uniform and trot him out on the field he will become half as good for the rest of his career. It happened to Wieters, happened to Matusz, happened to Markakis but it just took a year or two.
It's the only obvious explanation
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by Marinerfanjake on Jul 6, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He's only 25 years old
The development for catchers takes a bit longer and I think we’re seeing that. The Piazza/Mauer thing was a bit over the top, but I think he will have a pretty nice career. He’s already showing signs of that this year.
by asyouwish33 on Jul 6, 2011 1:50 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Which isn’t a terrible thing, to be like Varitek.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 6, 2011 5:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Reply fail.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 6, 2011 5:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
it's a terrible thing to be like Varitek when
his original comp was a hybrid between Mauer and Piazza. Varitek has had a good career, but more was expected from Wieters by most in the prospecting community.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Posey’s comp was Achilles, son of the goddess Thetis, so I guess he’s a failure too.
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by tedfordfan on Jul 6, 2011 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
whats with the strawman arguments?
I never understand why someone takes a comment, makes up their own comment, usually unrelated to anything the original poster said and then uses that to be sarcastic. I never said Wieters was a failure. I said he hasn’t lived up to what most expected him to become. My point is that when you’re expected to be great by a lot of people and you’re merely average/good, that people are going to be disappointed. It’s about the expectations of the prospecting community, not what the player produced. If Wieters had been an average prospect, most would have viewed a career like Varitek’s as superb for him, but he wasn’t an average prospect.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the problem isn't Wieters...
maybe the problem was our expectations.
If I have a son and I expect him to be a United States President… a leader of the free world, and instead he just becomes a doctor, who failed there? Did he fail to live up to expectations, or did I fail to have reasonable expectations?
Instead of looking at Wieters like he has failed, or failed to live up to expectations, we need to look at ourselves to see why we expected so much, and what we missed when making these expectations. About five or six years ago I was big on the Joey Gathright bandwagon. I thought he was going to hit 290+ and steal 75 bases every season. Obviously that didn’t happen. Now going back I have learned a few things from my unreasonable expectations… like even speedster/slappies need a little pop in their bat, or their bat doesn’t play at the ML level. Hear that Iglesias? That’s why I now expect you to end up a defensive utility middle infielder.
I agree that the problem was our expectations.
Had Wieters been a top 100 prospect instead of top 5, then the expectations would have been substantially less. There’s nothing wrong with him becoming a solid major league regular, but most expected so much because people perceived the talent for him to be a superstar was there. From the time he went as the #5 pick in the draft to becoming a top 5 overall prospect, the perception of superstardom was there.
As for your example, you may view your hypothetical son becoming a doctor as failing to live up to expectations…your expectations. That is because you set your expectations so high, which I know was your point. But when a player is expected to be a superstar by a lot of people and doesn’t reach that level, then he is viewed as a disappointment even if he is decent and has a long career.
It’s like Danny Ferry in basketball. If he hadn’t been the 2nd pick in the draft, his 13 year career wouldn’t have been viewed as a disappointment to many.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the problem was with the comps
When he was some hybrid between mauer and Piazza why did everyone assume that meant the best of each?
Or the Mauer with power?
They were lazy comps that people took literally. Scouting reports predicted he would hit for average and power with good D. That doesn’t equate to hitting like one of the best hitters ever with Mauers unreal OBP and good D.
That's very well possible
and why I don’t like most comps for players. People always assume the best qualities of each player. If I said a player was comparable to Ryan Howard, I really wouldn’t expect anyone to assume I mean his basestealing abilities and it wouldn’t be what I meant.
Expecting someone to be the next Piazza is pretty unrealistic anyway as he’s a no doubt Hall of Famer and arguably the best hitting catcher ever (though I dont think it’s that arguable).
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
comparisons are fine for players, it's just that they tend to be misused
Usually, the way a comparison works is, if you watch a player and he does something in a way that reminds you of a certain player, or he physically resembles in body type a certain player, that works as a comp. It has very little to do with statistics. We already have great tools for statistical comparisons between players.
I liked the Mauer comp for Wieters because, if nothing else, he was a huge guy with legitimate defensive skills behind the plate, and how many other guys can you think who fit that description? The comps to Piazza never made much sense unless the only thing you knew about Wieters was his 2008 statline in the minors and his position. The Varitek comp was even lazier, because it only existed because the two guys happened to go to the same school.
you hit the nail on the head with that pedrop
people forget that comps are just that, comps; and rookies are rookies.
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by feslenraster on Jul 6, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree with this
I understand the “hybrid” talk was overboard, but I’m not sure anyone would have disagreed with a Mauer comp as Wieters was tearing up the minors. Good defense, Power, and high batting average aren’t enough criterion for a comparison, but most people expected Mauer type numbers from Wieters, thus the comp. I agree with Looney that he has somewhat disappointed the prospecting community. Again, he is only 25 and has time to break out.
Mauer with power, ha.
I remember that. Quite frankly, I never saw what he did so good and was never too high on him. I think Varitek is better than him when he was in his prime. I think Weiters can be an ok player but will never live up to the hype.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 6, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm confused
Are you saying Varitek is better than Wieters in his prime, or Mauer? Which player were you not too high on? Just clarification.
Varitek has played 15 seasons and has had a prime.
Whereas Wieters has been in the majors 2 1/2 years and is 25 years old. Considering that Varitek didn’t break into the majors until he was 26, Wieters is well ahead of Varitek’s career pace and hasn’t even begun to enter into his peak years yet. Comparing someone’s prime years to someone’s first years is comparing apples to oranges. Varitek’s prime years were better than Kevin Youkilis’s first 4 years. Then Youk hit his prime.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Mauer also had a lot more hype than Wieters
They were all saying he’d be the best catcher of all time. Wieters got a lot of hype, but not as much as Mauer, and deservedly so.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jul 7, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
When someone is Baseball America’s #1 prospect, its a failure to end up like Varitek.
by gobruins12345 on Jul 6, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Varitek has a career OPS just short of 800 with the usual slow start of a catcher and
Hung around four years too long. Those are close to HOF numbers. I think most would take that for a catcher number 1 overall prospect.
a .258/.342/.436 line is nowhere close to HOF numbers.
There’s nothing about Varitek’s numbers that even remotely suggests he will be in the Hall of Fame or are even borderline, IMO. The number 1 prospect in baseball is supposed have the ability to be a perennial all star. Varitek was an all star 3 times, which is nice, but considering he was an all star in 2008 despite hitting .220/.313/.359, it means about as much as Jeter’s selection this year – literally nothing as it was undeserved. Varitek was a good player and had a solid career, but I’d be disappointed in the lack of peak years and a top OPS of .863 if I had a catching prospect that was considered the best prospect in baseball.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
This is very very true
and obviously comps were wrong. But if he ends up Varitek he is not a bad player.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 6, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Catches do develop slow, but yes, I agree. This is why, prospects are tough. We can always guess and make opinions but you never know.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 6, 2011 5:53 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Are we forgetting
That he is also catching one of the younger staffs in baseball and in one of the weaker lineups at the moment.
And, by pretty much every review I’ve read, hes the top, or second best, defensive catcher in baseball at the moment.
Besides, hes on pace for a WAR of about 5. not too shabby
Mediocre?
He’s on pace for 4-5 WAR and just made the All-Star team as a 25 year old catcher in his second full season. That’s great.
BP’s translations were shown by Colin Wyers (who BP subsequently hired) to be ridiculously out of whack the year they made the outlandish Wieters prediction; IIRC, they essentially had the AL as an easier league than the Eastern League or something preposterous like that.
As for the Mauer/Piazza hybrid, yeah, that’s probably not coming; but rarely do prospects turn out exactly as planned/projected/wishcasted, and getting a 4-5 WAR player out of ANY prospect, regardless of the hype, is a fantastic outcome.
making the all star team is not really something that should be a big consideration.
Especially when his OPS is .732 on the year. He really didn’t deserve to make the all star team. Getting a 4-5 WAR player out of someone hitting .269/.320/.412 just goes to illustrate how bad of a statistic WAR is in my opinion.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
WAR is incredibly overrated
Year to year defensive stats are poor at best, so why exactly should we take WAR seriously?
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 6, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
As previously discussed
When used in a theoretical context WAR is helpful. It’s raw totals/leaderboards that are questionable to use in an argument. Generally though, I agree with you.
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I agree with you
Especially the part where you agree with me. ;)
That is why I had a hard time taking Barton fans seriously last year.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 6, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
We have to be especially wary of relying on UZR
Especially when it is one season, in-season, or a huge outlier.
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Haha
Good point brother!
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Catcher WAR...
only covers baserunners thrown out, and the run values of those events are very easy to quantify.
It’s an incomplete picture of catcher defense, but it’s accurate as to what it measures and not prone to sample size flukes. Dude’s got a very good arm, and it’s added a good bit of value.
Whether WAR is overrated or not, I think most people agree that Wieters is top 5, if not the best defensive catcher in baseball.
Add in the fact that he’s an okay hitter, and that makes him very valuable. Forget about “WAR” for a second, Wieters is a really valuable asset because of his defense and that he doesn’t suck at hitting.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 6, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
Using WAR as the be-all-end-all of any discussion is dumb, but it is by far the by statistic to start at when looking to try and gauge overall value. If you have a specific reason to doubt a player’s WAR (e.g., doubts about 1B defense, extreme outlier single season defensive numbers, etc.), all you need do is explain why.
meh
No more so than anything other Defensive statistics; again, it should be used as a STARTING POINT. If you want to say you don’t buy the defensive portion for reasons x, y, and z, then go ahead. Just saying “WAR sucks” is lame.
Disagree
Using WAR as a legitimate argument does suck. One stat NEVER describes a baseball player. You need to look at various factors if you want to get an actual view on a player.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I just want someone to acknowledge that even if they don't agree with WAR, they do understand why Weiters is still a successful major leaguer.
He hasn’t displayed the bat, but the defense is still in a class of its own at a very important position.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
but is it about being successful?
I’lll admit he’s a successful major leaguer because of his defense, but I’m pretty sure that the O’s were hoping for more of an offensive contribution. I know the prospecting community was.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I am not saying that Weiters isn’t a decent player. However, he has not come close to reaching the potential that he displayed in the minors. This kid looked like an offensive force behind the plate and it just hasn’t happened.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you guys. He hasn't reached anything close to the potential we thought he had.
But he’s still a very good player. I think he gets dogged on too much just because he hasn’t become an MVP. I could still see him putting up a couple really good years.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
He is a decent player
He is not very good. I think he is useful but lets stop pretending that he has been very good.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen numerous places that listed Weiters as the top defensive catcher in baseball. I've never seen any that said he was anything less than "Good"
Offensively, he’s probably 7th-12th best offensive catcher.
Based on that, I’d say he’s better than decent, no less than “Good”
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he "Very Good"?
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He is fairly good, how is their hitting coach?
I thought a previous coach was pushing contact without power type of approach.
I've gone over this ad nauseum
The defensive side is a glorified range factor that weights zones on how far they are away and the type of ball ie soft medium hard.
The measurements are done by people watching tv. His isn’t very reliable.
The zones are different sizes in every stadium
The speed a ball is hit can be good or bad based on trajectory and yet somehow the system weighs these with no trajectory analysis
The tv angles don’t always work with certain zones
This system doesn’t take into account player positioning
The zones are imaginary / arbitrary counting on the watchers to classify correctly
There are only three types of batted ball and the zones are quite large so zone + batted ball combination could be easy or quite difficult
There is no spin data for balls that don’t move straight
I don’t think there is a method for teammates help and or interference – ie very good teammates will take some of your chances, poor ones will yield more chances.
Is that what you are looking for?
I'm going to make a compendium of Pedrophile's
comments about WAR and title it “Pedophile’s WAR”.
You still up for a Jays game?
Let me know as Dewey and I are down! Perhaps we could get a group of community members to attend a game.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 7, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
making the all star team is not really something that should be a big consideration.
Well, okay.
.269/.320/.412 is a 102 OPS+ (offense is down across the league), which is quite good for a C. Add in his good D, and that’s a dang good player. And that matches up with his WAR just fine.
a 102 OPS+ means he is an average hitter.
39 year old Jason Varitek’s OPS+ is 107. While a 102 OPS+ may be “quite good” for a C (not going to get into a debate over that though I believe it to be false), it is average for the entire league. Sorry, but a .260/.320/.412 line does not make him a dang good player at all and certainly not the superstar he was projected to be,
by Looney4baseball on Jul 6, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
In Response
and totally not scientific, but out of the thirty catchers with at least 150 PA in 2011, Mauer ranks sixth in runs created, according to ESPN (not OPS+, not sure how or if I can figure this out on BB-Ref w/o paying). 6/30=.2 or in top 20% for catchers, which is not the same as 50% league average. This is why WAR is a better – it compares apples to apples, or catchers to catchers (and he is fifth in WAR for catchers w/150 PA on Fangraphs). Granted, runs created are a cumulative offensive stat, but Wieters should be given credit for playing often and well. And his WAR value is heavily tied to Defense this year. But the point I am trying to make is comparing a catchers OPS+ to the entire playing population is not as effective as comparing him to the catching population, and certainly not as effective as using WAR.
by cookiedabookie on Jul 6, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
In response to your response.
I agree that Wieters has been in the top half of catchers and likely even higher, but my comparison of him is based on all players, not just catchers. Overall, he is a league average hitter. Comparing him just to other catchers really doesn’t provide the context of how good or bad of a player he really is. IMO, just because he is better than 80% of the catchers in runs created doesn’t mean that he is an above average hitter. It makes him above average for catchers. To me, WAR is subjective and does not provide anything other than speculation as to what a player is providing defensively to his team.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
So would you rather
Have a league average hitter at C or at 1B? A league average hitter at C is a strength for a team, while a league average hitter at 1B is a weakness. For example, Matt LaPorta is a 1B with an OPS+ of 106 in 2011, slightly higher. Are you telling me you would rather have LaPorta on your team than Wieters? Or, just looking at offense, since you seem dismissive of defensive stats, Wieters is sixth for catchers in runs created with 32.7. The sixth best for first basemen: Mark Teixeira with 57.9 RC. LaPorta has only 28.1 RC. Wieters would rank 23rd for first basemen (assuming he didn’t hit better after getting out from behind the plate).
The reality is that there is not a comparable average for offensive talent at each position – so you cannot reasonably compare a player at one position to players at another. If anyone could catch or play shortstop, then we could have a reasonable debate. But there is a reason why Teix is a 1B and not a C. For their positions, Teix and Weiters are comparables on at least one stat. On just the offensive portion of WAR, Weiters has 1.1, Teix has 1.8, showing how close they are in value based on position with vastly different stat lines.
And WAR does include a defense component, but more importantly it compares him to other catchers.
by cookiedabookie on Jul 7, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather have Wieters, but that's not what I'm getting at.
Wieters was expected to be a much better hitter…dare I say a superstar. The fact that he has to be compared as a hitter to Matt LaPorta shows how far he has fallen hitting-wise. My original comment was “a 102 OPS+ means he is an average hitter.”, which he is. I never said he wasn’t above average for a catcher. Positional value is everything for him right now, but it still doesn’t change the fact that he’s just average as a hitter compared to everyone else in the majors.
As far as Teix vs Weiters WAR stats, the fact that they are 0.7 apart offensively shows just how ridiculous WAR is as a statistic. The day a .243/.347/.524/.870 line is only 0.7 better than a .269/.319/.413/.732 line is the day that statistic isn’t worth squat, even counting adjustments for position. All it shows is how much the average 1B is than the average catcher. Weiters is an average major league hitter, but good for a catcher. Is that sufficient for you?
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would you compare a player to all other major league hitters?
Wieters can only be replaced by a catcher. In assessing how good he is, it makes no sense to compare him to the general universe of players, only in relation to other guys capable of doing what he does.
Bobby Orr didn’t score anywhere near as much as some of the great wings in NHL history, but we don’t compare his accomplishments to theirs, because we know that what’s relevant is that his offensive contributions for a defender were absolutely remarkable.
You compare guys to the players capable of replacing them, because that’s what makes them valuable in real life. If a team had league average players at every position this year, subbing in Matt Wieters’ .732 OPS would improve that team more than bringing in a 1B who was OPS’ing .800.
I compare him to all other major league hitters because
he plays in the major leagues. His statistics offensively can be compared to every other major leaguer that gets similar at bats. I’m assessing him here specifically in terms of his offense. I’ve already said his defense is good and what contributes most to his overall value.
Bobby Orr is a pretty bad example, because no matter who you compare his offensive statistics to during the years he played, he still had very good point totals, even compared to the offensive players. You also compared Orr to the greats in NHL history, I was comparing Wieters to major league hitters during the year. Also, defenders are specific designed to do 1 thing – defend. If they can score it’s a plus. Sort of like pitchers that can hit. Their main job isn’t to provide offense.
I was comparing Wieters to the entire league, because offensive contributions can be compared like that. All of the stats are comparable. Everything else you stated is his positional value and only makes him valuable because of his position on the field. I realize the positional value that Wieters has, but he is still a league average player offensively. I’m not debating that his value is above average for his position.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
In the real world...
the vast majority of teams would benefit more by adding Matt Wieters than a first baseman OPSing 70 points higher than him. That makes Wieters a better player than said first baseman. You know, in the real world.
Raw offensive performance can certainly be compared cross-position. But offensive value can’t be.
Value is based on how you compare against the other people out there who could take your job.
Everything else you stated is his positional value and only makes him valuable because of his position on the field.
Yes, he is “only” valuable because at this moment there are only 4-5 people alive who can do his job better than he can. That’s the only reason. You got me.
It's not about getting you or anyone else.
I agree with most of the comments about Wieters. I’m just comparing him to all players, while others are comparing him just to catchers.
Is the statement of mine that you highlighted below incorrect in your opinion? My contention is that he is an average major league hitter that is good defensively and most of his value is derived because of the position he plays on the field. Certainly if he moved to another position like 1B, 3B or OF, his value would diminish. Did Joe Mauer’s value not just drop due to his move to 1B? If he stays there permanently, then how far does his value fall? Mauer is still a much better hitter, so he will fall less, but he’s still not as valuable at 1B as he is at C.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 8, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Is the statement of mine that you highlighted below incorrect in your opinion? My contention is that he is an average major league hitter that is good defensively and most of his value is derived because of the position he plays on the field.
I agree with pretty much all of that (though I think he still has room for some offensive growth). The only thing I don’t agree with is that he’s not an elite player. The package you just described coming from the catcher position is an elite player.
I believe he has room for offensive growth also.
My comment about him being an average major league hitter was meant up to this point, but I believe he will improve his hitting as well. There’s no way he’s an elite player though, even though I don’t recall saying he wasn’t. I said he was an average major league hitter and he pretty much is. Major league average hitting is above average at the catcher position though.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 8, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
And it doesn’t much matter to me how much his value would fall if he played another position, because he doesn’t play another position. He’s a catcher.
but he may not always be.
I understand your stance on it not mattering to you because if it did, you’d have to recognize that most any move from the C position makes his value drop. A move to 1B would make him a well below average player because he isn’t hitting well enough. He;d go from one of the best at his position to one of the worst. I get it.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 8, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
again, what is with the strawman arguments?
Of course a majority of teams would benefit more by adding Wieters than a 1B OPSing 70 points higher, but I never said that nor disputed that in the real world or otherwise. That’s more of an indictment on the sad shape of hitting in the catching position than of Wieters ability though. All you’re proving is that Wieters value is based on the position he plays, which I’ve agreed with all along.
I stated several times that I was basing my comment of “a 102 OPS+ means he is an average hitter.” on raw offensive performance regardless of position. In the real world, Wieters OPS is lower than Yadier Molina, Cameron Maybin, Brett Gardner and Jamey Carroll. Pretty sad.
I agree that value is based on how you compare against the other people out there who could take your job, but that is value, not performance. I’m basing my statements based on his offensive performance, not what his value is for his position.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 8, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s more of an indictment on the sad shape of hitting in the catching position than of Wieters ability though.
You say this as if it’s a cyclical thing. Catcher is always one of the worst offensive positions, because the universe of players who can man the position is so small and the injury rate so high.
so that makes him a better player?
Catcher is always one ofthe worst offensive positions, but he’s still just a league average hitter. When the game is on the line, I’d rather have a league average 1B at the plate than the 5th ranked OPS catcher, because his OPS is higher than Wieters. The bottom line is that you’re hanging your hat on thinking that the position Wieters plays makes him a good hitter, when it does not. He’s an average hitter in a position that has mostly below average hitters. It doesnt make him better.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 8, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I literally just wrote about that. /shameless self-promotion
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He's developing - catchers can be slow to develop
Will he ever be “Joe Mauer with power”? Probably not. Looking at his minor league numbers, those expectations were really unrealistic to begin with. But I think he can definitely be as valuable to a team as Victor Martinez, with slightly less batting average but good defense. I think he should still be considered a success as a prospect.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jul 6, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
A hybrid of Mauer/Piazza...
CAN equate to Mauer’s power+Piazza’s speed. Worst of both worlds :)
Wouldn't a prospect site
know most of all that shockingly not everyone pans out? And not everyone is a fast learner like Posey or something?
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
"not panning out"
is a huge overstatement. He’s a league average bat at a position where his peers are OPSing .678 on the season.
He hasn’t reached the potential that many pegged on him, but he’s still one of the best players in baseball at his position.
I dont believe the original poster said he wasn't panning out.
That’s just me though. Yes, Weiters is one of the best players in baseball at his position, but he’s still an average major leaguer IMO.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Keep in mind
5 more hits and suddenly we are talking about an .800 ops and this conversation is moot.
And again, he is providing what pretty much every scout and expert calls “elite” defense and game management
thats like saying....
except for all the hits and runs a pitcher gave up, he pitched very well. 10 more outs and suddenly we are talking about around a .750 OPS and the conversation is moot as well.
If the queen had balls, she’d be the king…
by Looney4baseball on Jul 7, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a scout, but
It’s always looked to me like his bat was slow, and his swing was long. Like he was swinging in water. Though if that were the case I am sure scouts would have pointed this out in the minors.
Many scouts said the same thing last year
The reports were that he couldn’t catch up to a strong fastball.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 8, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
they did point it out
I think BA mentioned it on several occasions, but there was a concern that he was prone to high fastballs as he couldn’t catch up to them, and obviously that lack of bat speed is a weakness that tends to show up more and more at higher levels.
Of course, when you have a guy who was the 5th pick in his draft (and the top rated overall talent in his class), and he enters pro ball and hits like Wieters did, it’s not fun to be the guy who stands up and says, “hey now, wait a second . . .”. Especially in this day where so many fans know the names and very little otherwise other than the signing bonus they got and their stats.
I guess I just never saw it.
And I never saw the dude play in the minors, so maybe it wasn’t evident then against pitchers with less velo. But in the majors the bat speed stands out.
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