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Prospects in the Erik Bedard Trade

Starting pitcher Erik Bedard of the Seattle Mariners in action during the game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on April 15, 2011 in Kansas City, Missouri. According to reports on July 31, 2011 Bedard was traded to the Boston Red Sox.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Prospects in the Erik Bedard Trade

In a complicated three-way trade involving the Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox, the Red Sox receive southpaw Erik Bedard and right-hander Josh Fields from Seattle, the Dodgers receive catcher Tim Federowicz, right-hander Stephen Fife and right-hander Juan Rodriguez from Boston, and the Mariners receive outfielders Trayvon Robinson (Dodgers) and Chih-Hsien Chiang (Red Sox).

Star-divide

Chih-Hsien Chiang, OF: The Red Sox signed Chiang as a free agent out of Taiwan in 2005. A diabetic, his pro performance was mediocre until this year, when better nutrition got him into better physical condition and enabled him to manage his health issues more effectively. He's broken out for Double-A Portland, hitting .340/.402/.648 with 18 homers, 25 walks, and 61 strikeouts in 321 at-bats. A 23-year-old left-handed hitter, his other tools aren't spectacular and his plate discipline needs work, but scouts like his swing. His grade would be somewhere somewhere on the C+/B- cusp.

Tim Federowicz, C: Boston drafted Federowicz in the seventh round in 2008, from the University of North Carolina. A top-flight defensive catcher, he has a strong throwing arm, plenty of mobility, and excellent leadership skills behind the plate. A weak stick has kept him off prospect lists. He's hitting .275/.337/.397 this year for Double-A Portland, with 32 walks and 62 strikeouts in 335 at-bats. He probably won't hit enough to be a major league regular, but he could last a long time as a defense-oriented reserve. He turns 24 this week. Grade C.

Josh Fields, RHP: The Mariners drafted Fields in the first round in 2008, 20th overall, from the University of Georgia. There's nothing wrong with his stuff: he can hit the mid-90s and his breaking ball has bite, but poor command has kept him from consistent professional success. This year he had a 2.77 ERA with a 26/19 K/BB in 26 innings for Double-A Jackson (note the high walk rate), but a 6.23 ERA with a 13/13 K/BB in 13 innings for Triple-A Tacoma. He turns 26 later this month. He could be a fine reliever, if he ever learns to harness his stuff, which is a big if. Grade C.

Stephen Fife, RHP: A 24-year-old right-hander, Fife was drafted by the Red Sox in the third round in 2008, from the University of Utah. His stuff is average across the board: 88-92 MPH sinking fastball, average changeup and curveball, but he throws strikes and keeps the ball low in the zone. He has a 3.66 ERA with a 70/37 K/BB in 103 innings for Double-A Portland this year, with 107 hits allowed. In the majors, he projects as a fifth starter or more probably a long/middle reliever. I've see him as a sleeper in the past but he's never quite woken up. Grade C.

Trayvon Robinson, OF: The Dodgers drafted Robinson in the 10th round in 2005, out of high school in Los Angeles. He moved slowly at first, but began breaking out in 2009 and is having a fine (if somewhat deceptive) season this year for Triple-A Albuquerque, hitting .293/.375/.563 with 26 homers, 45 walks, and 122 strikeouts in 368 at-bats. A speed demon early in his career, he still runs well but is less aggressive on the bases these days, focusing more on power. He runs well enough to play center but his arm is best-suited for left. He strikes out a lot and his batting average may not be good initially, but he has a broad base of skills and tools. A 23-year-old switch-hitter, I gave him a Grade B pre-season and that still seems reasonable.

Juan Rodriguez, RHP: A 22-year-old right-hander signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2008, Rodriguez has a 5.19 ERA with an 88/32 K/BB in 59 innings for Low-A Greenville in the South Atlantic League, allowing 57 hits. His command is spotty and his slider is mediocre, but his 92-95 MPH fastball has movement and his K/IP ratio is excellent. He needs to sharpen up his command and add polish, but he's an interesting arm at least. Grade C, but has some upside.

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I don't see

… the point of this for the Dodgers. Makes plenty of sense for Seattle, makes some sense for the Red Sox, but why would the Dodgers trade Trayvon Robinson for that package? What in there did they need worse than they needed a potentially major-league-ready left fielder like Robinson?

by Brownson on Jul 31, 2011 8:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Most of TBLA agree with you,

But apperently Ned got his dander up over Tim Federowicz and had to have him in our org.

by Grimjack on Jul 31, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

No idea

Well I see the point in what they got in return — they were desperate for more catching depth and they got a pretty promising receiver in Fed. The other guys have upside too. Sounds like Ned wanted Fed in trade for Kuroda before Hiroki nixed any trade. SO obviously they wanted those guys anyway. But why did they make Trayvon the one they traded away? I don’t know the ins and outs of this trade obviously (who was offered, who was rejected, requested, etc), but it feels like classic Colletti, selling high perhaps. but getting low return anyway.

I also just feel sad as a Dodger fan I know Robinson was excited about prospect of playing in front of his hometown LA. Baseball is a business of course, but that makes this trade seem even crueler.

Hope Fed works out is all I can say. They did need more catchers who can be in the majors sometime next year, so that part of it I get, at least.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Jul 31, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

SAT analogy

Dodgers : Red Sox : : 1950s Kansas City A’s : 1950s Yankees

by AndrewTorrez on Jul 31, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

I remember the Dodgers getting the best player in the Manny deal and going to two straight NLCS’s. Dodgers are not a doormat, but MCCourt and Colletti need to go. That is not debatable.

Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.

by Pure Azure on Jul 31, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trades between Boston and LA in the 2000s (with none in the 1990s)

Today’s trade. (three-way)
Manny. (three-way)
Christian Lara for Eric Hull.
Dave Roberts. (You’re welcome Boston).

You are reaching.

@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jul 31, 2011 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

In fact, aren’t Ed Wade’s Houston Astros and the Phillies more like the A’s and the Yankees?

@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jul 31, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see

you get your logic from cartoons.

Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.

by Pure Azure on Aug 7, 2011 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

C is a good grade for Fife

I have never been high on him but he can be a front end bullpen guy if he reaches his potential.

In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
Minor League Ball - Minor League Baseball Analyst

by Marisa Ingemi on Jul 31, 2011 8:23 PM EDT reply actions  

as a Red Sox fan, you should be dancing in the streets

Not saying Bedard will work out — that Saturday start was brutal, obviously — but he’s all upside, and to get that for a Bag ’o Crap™ while simultaneously convincing the Dodgers to inexplicably part with the single best prospect in the deal… wow.

by AndrewTorrez on Jul 31, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm guessing...

… Theo had Alex Anthopolous make the call for him.

"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 31, 2011 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   4 recs

I think the prospects sent to LA

were quite mediocre, but Chiang … that’s going to be an interesting one to follow. It’s still easily worth it for them, but lumping Chiang into “Bag ’o Crap” is a bit harsh, IMO.

by toonsterwu on Jul 31, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chiang

23, repeating AA, never particularly well-regarded by scouts, and didn’t hit in the five previous years? Oh, and as a bonus, he’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft?

I’m comfortable with putting him in the Bag. He’s not worthless in the cosmic sense, but he’s of virtually no value to Boston.

by AndrewTorrez on Aug 1, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I love this deal.

We aren’t going to miss a single piece of that deal. Chiang was good, but our OF depth is pretty good. If Bedard stays healthy, great, if he doesn’t? Oh well, we just cleared up a lot of 40 man roster space.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Aug 1, 2011 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

Boston gave up minimal for Bedard. None of these guys are projected to really become starters at their positions.

In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
Minor League Ball - Minor League Baseball Analyst

by Marisa Ingemi on Aug 1, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

A 23-year-old switch-hitter, I gave him a Grade B pre-season and that still seems reasonable.

Not that it is much of a difference, but you gave him a B+ in the comments in your article on 7/25.

@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jul 31, 2011 8:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Right

As a Dodger fan, I’ve been concerned with Robinson’s ongoing bad K rates of course – about 29% this year – but I also see some pretty high BABIP (around .400 this year, about .380 this year) and that gives me pause too.

@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jul 31, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

The k – rate is definitely alarming, especially since it appear to have taken a step in the wrong direction this year.

And the high BABIP is also concerning but it might be somewhat sustainable. Robinson hits a ton of line drives (this year 22%). Factor in his above average speed and I could see a him legitimately posting a BABIP of around .350.

by meloyellow15 on Jul 31, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lavarnway

Does the fact that the Red Sox felt comfortable dealing Federowicz tell us anything about how they view Ryan Lavarnway?

by Pappagiorgio on Jul 31, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Probably not a whole lot right?

I mean, the reports on Lavarnway’s defense have gotten better over the last couple of years, I don’t think it’s nearly as bad as they said it was when he was in A ball. But it came down to this, we had too many prospects becoming Rule 5 draft eligible this year and if we were going to keep a catcher was it going to be the defensive one with a small bat who at most is going to be a backup in the bigs, or the guy who I think is leading the Sox system in HRs and tolerable defense, someone who may end up like say, VMart? Gotta keep that upside.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Aug 1, 2011 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nah

Lavarnway’s worries are his defense but it is improving. Lavarnway is a far better hitter than FedEx too.

In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
Minor League Ball - Minor League Baseball Analyst

by Marisa Ingemi on Aug 1, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lavarnfedex

Boston’s front office failed to perfect a machine that would merge Lavarnaway and Federowicz into an elite catching prospect forcing them to deal one at the deadline.

by mg050369 on Aug 1, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

John...question about your grading...

It has seemed to me recently that one to two weeks performance affect your grades. I asked you in this thread http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/25/2291360/prospect-of-the-day-trayvon-robinson-of-los-angeles-dodgers what you would grade Trayvon. You said B+. And that was six days ago. And it seems like after one subpar week he’s now a B?

Also, (this one is way more understandable), in your Goldschmidt post two months ago you said barring a huge slump or major injury he would be an A-. Possibly an A. Yet in the D-Backs thread you said probably a B+ now.

I understand that grades are fluid and esp. mid season you’re merely guessing and projecting, but the Trayvon one is quite puzzling to me as it seemed to change in only six days.

by gobruins12345 on Jul 31, 2011 9:21 PM EDT reply actions  

trayvon

Naw it just means I didn’t go back and look at what I wrote a week ago. He’s right on the edge between B and B+….a week didn’t make a difference in the grade, I just didn’t look.

Goldy is a different issue. His production has tailed off enough to make me wonder. The major league data will be illuminating

by John Sickels on Jul 31, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Yeah will be real exciting to see what Goldy does with some time

by gobruins12345 on Aug 1, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

He posted an OPS of .985 in the SOU in July

& was at 1.007 the month prior. April wan’t going to last forever but the train of thought that Paul Goldschmidt’s performance discernibly suffered isn’t actual to me.

by Matt0330 on Aug 3, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mariners are real winners here

Sox got a great arm-but only when healthy, so this could help their questionable rotation, however the real winner is Seattle. Trayvon Robinson is going to be a solid everyday player with decent average, power, and speed. Chiang is a promising player for a team that lacks offense. To get this for a rental of a player that’s a major injury risk is huge-especially considering he’s not healthy now. No way Bedard starts last Friday if the M’s weren’t trying to show people he could pitch now. Seriously don’t know what the Dodgers were thinking by giving up Trayvon Robinson for a guy that looks like a solid backup catcher and some other lower level prospects. Also not sure why the Sox targeted a pair of the most injury riddled pitchers in the game in Harden and Bedard.

by mattp31 on Jul 31, 2011 11:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I think it makes sense for the Sox

They targeted the injury riddled pitchers because they could get real talent without paying much. Bedard either pitches well or he doesn’t pitch. The BoSox don’t need an innings eater, they need a legit playoff caliber starter. In Bedard they get that, if he’s healthy, without damaging their system. In order to get someone of Bedard’s talent with no health questions they would have had to give up considerably more. It’s a calculated risk.

Now, from the Dodgers end of it…I have no idea. Terrible deal for them.

And as you note, the M’s are the big winners. Z’s a trade ninja, especially when it comes to the 3-way.

by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't go nuts over Trayvon

I’m definitely rooting for him, but he profiles as an Austin Jackson/Brian Anderson type. In fact if he’s Austin Jackson I’d be surprised, he’s more like Randy Winn. Still, Ned needs to go.

Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.

by Pure Azure on Aug 1, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Randy Winn had over 17 WAR over his 4 year peak

and another 5.4 season.

If Trayvon can accomplish that, I’ll be quite pleased.

Actually, Randy Winn is probably a better compliment than Austin Jackson, although they’re similar.

by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

brian anderson?

You mean the Brian Anderson from the White Sox?

by mrkupe on Aug 1, 2011 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

because Trayvon is a long ways away from even being Randy Winn at this point. I forgot that Winn was actually good at one point.

Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.

by Pure Azure on Aug 1, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

i still like

the dexter fowler comp w/ more pop… and like has been said before Winn was a fairly solid player in his peak

by hybrid on Aug 1, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

how about a Jacoby Ellsbury comparison?

just throwing it out there.

In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
Minor League Ball - Minor League Baseball Analyst

by Marisa Ingemi on Aug 1, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

jacoby is 50x the hitter

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Aug 1, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

throw that one out the window

Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.

by Pure Azure on Aug 2, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

How in the balls do you come up with a Randy Winn comp...

They don’t seem similar at all. Aside from them both being bla… OHHHH ho ho ho!

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 1, 2011 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

I think it fits mostly defensively

CF range with LF arm. Good speed, solid pop. Unspectacular batting averages.

It’s not a perfect comp, but I see where he gets it. Trayvon strikes out more than Winn did but he walks a bit more and hits for more power, at this point.

by dnc on Aug 1, 2011 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Chris Young

He could profile as a Chris Young like with less power and bit more average.

by mattp31 on Aug 1, 2011 5:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Im pretty sure

If you told any GM that they would be able to trade any prospect for a guy who would be guaranteed to put up a Winn comp career that there are probably no more then 20 prospects in all of baseball they wouldnt make that deal for.

Wynn might not have been a star, but he was a very good MLB player for a long time.

by ADLC on Aug 1, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Couple Questions

Do you think Robinson’s strikeouts will decrease against major league pitching?

How many of those home runs in Alberqueque would clear the fences in Safeco?

I think he’s got a real uphill battle to be an average left fielder with his track record.

I can't count the reasons I should stay
One by one they all just fade away

by HotSludgeSundae on Aug 1, 2011 5:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s possible for him to get his k rate under 25%, if he did he could be fairly helpful with the bat. Also Safeco is pretty neutral for left handed hitters (which he is for most of his AB’s) … a lot of his hr’s in the minors look like they are struck pretty well so I don’t think it’s as much of a PCL illusion as most believe.

by hybrid on Aug 1, 2011 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mariners = Highway Robbery

1. Bedard is on the DL and has been a part time pitcher for three years.
2. Comes off the DL and get shelled.
3. Mariners trade him for two legit prospects.

by Raidas77 on Aug 1, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions   2 recs

And the biggest loser is...

Michael Saunders. It was hard to see a path back to the majors for him before, but now, in the span of a few days, the team has completely buried him on the organizational depth chart behind Robinson, Chiang and Casper Wells.

by Suburban Shocker on Aug 1, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions  

It is not as bad as all that, since none of the other guys have the spot locked down.

It just means he won’t get any more free shots at the position. Now he will definitely need to produce first. But that is true of new guys, too, to some degree.

by quacker27 on Aug 1, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

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