Prospects in the Michael Bourn Trade
by John Sickels on Jul 31, 2011 5:51 PM EDT
Email
PrintProspects in the Michael Bourn Trade
The Houston Astros traded outfielder Michael Bourn to the Atlanta Braves, in exchange for outfielder Jordan Schafer, and pitching prospects Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens, and Brett Oberholtzer. Here's a look at the three arms the Astros have added to their farm system.
Juan Abreu, RHP: A 26-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, Abreu was originally signed by the Kansas City Royals in 2003, but was picked up by the Braves as a minor league free agent in 2009. He throws quite hard, hitting 95-96 MPH, but his breaking ball and changeup are erratic, and his control is mediocre. He has a 2.25 ERA with a 68/27 K/BB in 48 innings for Triple-A Gwinnett this year, with 34 hits allowed and a 0.44 GO/AO, showing a strong fly ball tendency. He could be an impressive bullpen arm if he can tone down his wildness. Grade C, but has some upside.
Paul Clemens, RHP: The Braves drafted Clemens in the seventh round in 2008, from Louisburg Junior College in North Carolina. A 23-year-old right-hander, he works with a 92-95 MPH fastball, along with a curveball, slider, and changeup. The changeup is his worst pitch and some scouts think he'll fit best as a reliever in the long run, although there's enough promise here that letting him start as long as possible makes sense. He has a 3.73 ERA with a 90/44 K/BB in 109 innings this year for Double-A Mississippi, with 103 hits and a 0.96 GO/AO. I rated him as a strong Grade C+ pre-season and he's somewhere on the C+/B- cusp right now.
Brett Oberholtzer, LHP: A 22-year-old lefty, Oberholtzer was drafted by the Braves in the eighth round in 2008, from Seminole Community College in Florida. He has a 3.74 ERA with a 93/42 K/BB in 128 innings for Mississippi this year, with 119 hits allowed and a 0.85 GO/AO. He works with an 88-93 MPH fastball, and has a solid slider and changeup combination, along with a decent curve a few times a game. He throws strikes and profiles as a number four starter. I had him a Grade C+ pre-season and see him in the C+/B- range right now.
17 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don't get it
Can anyone explain why Astros felt they needed to move him? Bourn is signed next season. The return seems mediocre at best.
http://babiesboozeandboobs.wordpress.com/
They didn't NEED to move him
But he was having a good offensive year and it’s hard to imagine his stock being higher unless he got signed to a team-friendly contract covering some FA years; every game after today is a chance for his numbers to drop and one less day of team control. He wasn’t suddenly going to start hitting for crazy amounts of power or anything.
I agree that the return seems underwhelming; the Astros got a pretty nice haul for Pence (and did well to sell high on him) but this does not seem like an adequate prospect package for a comparable player – Bourn does not have Pence’s power, but hits for a similar AVG/OBP and has much better speed, plus as a CF is far more valuable from a positional standpoint. I guess with the upside of the Pence deal they wanted some more high-floor players but they really should have gotten at least one of the Big Four from Atlanta, and probably two, for a player as good as Bourn.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
They were never going to get one of the big 4 for Bourn
Maybe there was an outside shot if it was Delgado straight up for Bourn, but that’s about it. I’m not quite sure why people are down on the deal. Jordan Schafer still profiles as a league average CF even if his OBP is sitting in the .300-.310 range due to his combination of speed and above average defense at a premium position, and he could possibly turn into Michael Bourn-lite in a few years.
Actually
I heard Wren on the radio this morning in Atlanta and he indicated that they would have moved one of the Big Four for Bourn if they had to. One would presume the supporting package would not have been as strong, though.
Agreed that this is not a fleecing of Houston. Schafer’s upside is probably Bourn, but he would reach it at a time that would be more meningful to the Astros. They got some pretty nice pitchers to boot..
its unfortunate the Astros have an immovable contract in Carlos Lee
this probably enticed Ed Wade to trade Pence and Bourn.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
No what enticed Wade to trade those 2of the guys
is the Astros need to rebuild the farm system and having 28 year old guys being paid to be franchise players that are not franchise players is not a smart way to recover from the neglect of the organization leading up to 2005 and beyond.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah
don’t get the negative reaction to the package they got for Bourn. He is a no power, on and off offensive performer, who is a good defender most years as well. Getting four guys for him, all of which who will spend some time in Houston, seems quite fair for him.
Oberholtzer and Clemens aren’t much besides 4th and 5th starters, but if the Astros get two usable starters and a slightly worse CF, I don’t see how they did that badly.
detroitbaseballpage.com
considering that Bourn has been a better player than Pence for the past 2.5 years
and will make less money, you’d think the Astros would get a package that’s close to what they got for Pence, not one that doesn’t have a single top 10 prospect.
by secret defense on Aug 1, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Atlanta didn't feel the crunch
like Philly did. Philly is built for right now, Atlanta while winning right now doesn’t really need to win right now. Atlanta’s core of McCann, Freeman, and Heyward will have plenty of opportunities to be in this position again.
by Neil Leininger on Aug 1, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Just putting this out there
Clemens does have a good fastball. According to BA today, some scouts give it a 70 grade. So his ceiling might be a bit higher than that. He has quite a bit of work to do on his secondary pitches and command though.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
it's a pretty defensible package
The Astros badly needed to add some depth to their system. They managed to do that AND they got somebody who can fill some ABs at the major league level.
I think it’s a deal that probably makes more sense for them than betting everything on a Minor or a Delgado. The guys in this trade might not have gotten a lot of publicity hidden behind the more prized chips, but there’s some talent here.
Sorry
But that makes no sense whatsoever. The Astros don’t need minor-league filler depth, which, with the possible exception of Clemens, this trade provides. We have nothing resembling upside talent aside from just a couple of prospects. We need to start betting on players who have a greater chance of making the majors and being impact players, not AAAA or 5th starter/bullpen talent.
A Texans fan. Really. No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.battleredblog.com
"Blind fandom is all I got left." - LoneSpot
No one said these guys were minor league fillers for their careers. Schaffer is younger
than Bourn but is at about the same ML level as Bourn when Wade traded for him. Cosart and Singleton are consensus top 50 prospects and Sosa whom we got for Keppinger has front end starter stuff. Zeid and Clemens have the ability to become good to excellent set up and/or closer type pitchers. The returns in these trades are still anywhere form 2-3 years from making a true impact in Houston which is about the time we should start to become competitive again.
You're far too negative, BFD
I didn’t like this trade, but the only one of these players who you could maybe slap an “AAAA” tag on is Abreu, and he’s more of a throw-in (it’s also arguable since he does have good stuff). Yeah, it’s a high floor, low ceiling package, but these guys have a good chance of being ML contributors.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Oberholtzer / Clemens
As a Braves’ fan, I am quite pleased with this trade and the price, but John, I do feel you might be undervaluing the two starting pitchers. I think when you take the time to review the farm systems post season, you might push these guys up a tick.
They are below the Teheran / Vizcaino / Delgado / Minor tier, but they would be near the top of many farm systems. I would be surprised if you do not go B- to possibly even a straight B for Oberholtzer.
Amazing to me that Atlanta got them in the 7th and 8th rounds of the draft.
I agree
Oberholtzer are BoR depth with MoR ceilings. Oberholtzer has been disappointing the last month and a half but I think he’s underrated and Clemens has always had good stuff. I only see HOU when the Reds play them, but I’m not sure where this idea that Michael Bourn is some franchise player is coming from. He’s been above average at the plate just two of the last four years, and even speedy CFers have finite ceilings. Even this year, a career peak, is seeing just a .338 wOBA, so we’re not exactly talking about Kenny Lofton here. I’m glad the HOU FO is more realistic than the fan base.
by blackoutyears on Aug 1, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it was Whitey Herzog who said.....
….when the Braves try and trade you a pitcher, you should run from the room……Adam Wainwright seems to be the only one who really panned out……
…..However, most of the busts seem to be guys that the Braves had built up heavily, mostly to to dupe other teams into trading for them; perhaps we’ll do better with second line guys developing into 3rd-4th starters…..Everybody is gaga about the Braves big 4 prospects, but time will tell whether they will actually reach their potential.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
