Looks Like Singleton and Cosart are on the Move
by MrMetsDaily on Jul 29, 2011 9:09 PM EDT
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Based on the latest reports, it appears like the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies have finally come to an agreement on a deal for Hunter Pence. The information points to the fact that both Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton have been included in the deal along with two other prospects. I have been following all of these rumors here.
How would this move impact the Astros farm system? Do they move into the top 15? What do you think this does to the development of both Cosart and Singleton as well as their expected MLB debut dates?
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Almost JD Martinez time in HOU!
One can hope, right?!?! LOL
by John Black on Jul 29, 2011 9:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It would be great to see him in HOU
He has definitely earn a shot. Who else would they call up instead of him?
He was pulled from his game in Corpus Christi mid-game...
I think he’s driving to Houston…
Good to hear
I’m excited to see him get a chance in the majors.
Sweet!!!
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by mathisrocks5 on Jul 29, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Astros have vastly improved their system
Springer
Singleton
Cosart
That is an impressive top 3.
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it could get even better
If they move Michael Bourn as well.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2011 9:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I had Cosart ahead of Singleton on my midseason list
Still would have it that way right now with Springer first.
After those three, well it’s not as much fun. Ariel Ovando may be the next most interesting guy simply because of his massive upside.
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yeah, the next 5 or so guys (just guessing off top of my head) could probably be in any order
I’d probably roll with Folty, just because I was a huge believer out of high school and it seems too early to give up now, even with the very inconsistent reports this year.
really? how impressive do you view it?
Impressive top 3? Eh. It’s a good top 3, better than they’ve had in a long while, but I don’t know about impressive. I’m just not sure I like Cosart that much better than May, Biddle, Colvin. This isn’t to discount Cosart’s upside, as it’s big, and he’s awfully young, but eh, I tend to think, for someone like John, he’s probably still a B right now. Singleton, don’t know. Everytime I watch him, I see a good talent, but … I know, bat speed’s there and so is power potential, but I’m just not sure I see this top notch corner slugger that some seem to see. I’d put Cosart ahead of Singleton. As for Springer, nice raw talent, but I’d go B. I mean, I can see a case for 3 borderline B/B+ guys, and if you view all three as B+, okay, but I tend to view it as 3 B’s so I’m not nearly as impressed.
After that, the system drops off, so as to the OP, I’d have a hard time buying this as a top 15 system. To be fair, around 12 or so, the systems are quite bunched together until the last few slots, and I think the Brewers are largely thought of as last still.
All three have impact level upside
I have both Springer and Cosart as B+ prospect (both in the 30-50 range), and Singleton a high B (60-70 range). Singleton would be higher if I didn’t have a very high standard for first base prospects, I really love that bat. It’s not an elite top 3, but it’s really good and a huge step in the right direction.
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fair enough
I’ve got a hard time going B+ on Springer. Just too many holes in his games to overlook right now. I mean, if the holes are there in college, it’s just hard for me to buy that the holes will be fixed in his first year of pro ball (and I guess this assumes he signs … been busy so maybe I missed something).
I only caught 1 start of Cosart’s this year, so I’m not qualified to speak too much there, as one start is one start. But boy … his secondary stuff looked raw. Majorly raw. Great fastball, though.
Springer
He drastically cut his K rate this year. He has ridiculous athleticism and bat speed and is regarded as someone who takes to instruction well. There’s risk, but I’m bullish on him turning his upside into results.
Cosart is the most risky of the group for me. I could definitely see him ending up in the bullpen or going the way of Knapp. However, his fastball gives him the kind of ceiling that’s pretty rare.
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very curious
you guys did your lists over at BB, and you had Cosart, what, 39th, and McNutt off the list. I’m curious what the argument is for such a wide gap. I don’t think McNutt is better than Cosart – I tend to think they are about at the same plane. If Cosart’s fastball is better than McNutt’s, it’s not by much. Most reports this year still have McNutt as plus fast/potential plus curve (but inconsistent), and a solid change (which is a big step up), which is fairly similar to Cosart’s (and McNutt’s change is probably a tick ahead of Cosart’s). He’s just been nicked up this year, but it’s not like Cosart isn’t without some health concerns.
McNutt's stuff has been down this year
Probably a product of injuries but what I saw when I’ve watched him was not very impressive, and the announcers explicitly said that he was not the same pitcher that he was last year. He’s off my 100 for now, but that certainly doesn’t bury him.
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how many times have you seen him this year
but leaving that aside, how does a plus fastball/inconsistent, but potential plus curve/solid change (and the change has been quite solid this year when he’s used it) with components that aren’t far off from Cosart’s performance in A+, rate such a big gap?
I’ve actually said on Cubs boards that I think McNutt was over-hyped, so this isn’t some sort of crazy McNutt love. I just … don’t see this big gap.
I've seen two outings so far
His fastball command was bad and his curve ball was not working in either start.
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I agree with this.
The more I read the internet the more I think prospects are overrated.
I wonder if one of the PTBNL will be either...
Brody Colvin or Trevor May. Both??? Nah.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2011 9:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I doubt it...seem too high profile to not be named outright
but I wonder if Julio Rodriguez might be one PTBNL. Or it could be a list of guys (that May/Colvin might be on) that the ’Stros are choosing from…
How about Austin Hyatt?
Or Jiwan James?
by blackoutyears on Jul 29, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't expect the PTBNLs to be anywhere near that significant
Hell the return right now is already heavily in Houston’s favor.
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I didn't say all PTBNL are insignificant
Just that these ones probably are. Cosart/Singleton are the center pieces.
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Coudl definitely be inferior guys
Hyatt is already 25, and James is making contact but it is still extremely raw. I could see those guys ending up on a PTBNL list.
by blackoutyears on Jul 31, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
guess it comes down to if you love Cosart/Singleton
as noted above, I’m not as huge on these guys, and assuming the last two are minor chips, while I think this is a solid return for the Astros, I think this is a deal the Phillies had to pull the trigger on, so I’m not sure it’s heavily in Houston’s favor.
To get two guys with that kind of upside for Hunter Pence is fantastic IMO
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well
Look, I’m not saying it’s a bad deal for Houston in any way. It’s a solid deal for them. Your wording above is sort of what I was responding to – that it is “already heavily in Houston’s favor”. I’m not sold yet that Cosart is an elite starting arm. When I saw him, the secondary stuff was majorly raw. Singleton, watching him, I’m not exactly sold on the prospects that he’s going to be this 30+ HR masher that some people think (now, in Lancaster, he could go beserk). Hence why I’m not exactly sold this is heavily in Philly’s favor. I tend to think this is a deal that makes sense for both sides.
Singleton
I haven’t seen him this year, but I fell in love with his offensive upside when I saw him last year. He has a tendency to chase high fastballs, but the rest was really sound. I know some are down on his performance this year, but I think he’s doing quite well as a teenager in the FSL.
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And we should also remember that it's Hunter freakin' Pence
I mean, he’s a solid player, but he’s not an impact guy by any stretch of the imagination. Houston sold high on him.
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True
The Astros timing was impeccable & they got a very impressive package. I think that Josh Zeid is a very interesting third piece actually & he could be a very good short reliever if he continues to progress (although maybe he could transition back to the rotation).
Obviously one never knows with prospects, but Houston did much better than I would have thought possible in the preseason if the topic of a theoretical Hunter Pence trade were discussed.
I mean, he’s a solid player
Completely agree. I really, really like him, but he’s more a Nick Swisher type of addition than an elite player. I think the exchange was fair for both sides so far. I’m a little bummed that this pushes Brown back to Lehigh Valley as he’s been getting on track lately, but he’s ready if/when Ibanez needs replacing. I don’t think it’s a conincidence that Brown played LF in his first Triple-A start.
by blackoutyears on Jul 31, 2011 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking Jesse Biddle
Because of rumors that the Astros were scouting him, and also because I know the Astros were high on him for the ‘10 draft (I think they would have picked him at 33 if they’d had the opportunity).
That’s unlikely though, it’s probably just grade C/C+ guys
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
aren't the reports that the other 2 PTBNL
aren’t major prospects? I would think if it’s Biddle (or May or Colvin) that they would be labeled as potential major prospects.
Zeid huh? Is that certain?
I actually like Zeid a fair amount. Wonder if Houston will put him in the rotation, or have him in the pen. I’m actually quite curious if he could make it as a starter, but they may want him to move faster. As a pen arm, I could see Zeid in the bigs in 2012.
Zeid is confirmed as the third player...
One more undetermined PTBNL to be named.
top 15?
Not so sure on that. Not much else going on in this system besides the top 3.
Where would you put them?
I personally was thinking around 19-20, but I could see people being more bullish on them.
by MrMetsDaily on Jul 29, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly
off the top, even if I go with Jeff Reese’s grades on the top 3 (he had it as B+/B+/B), I’d still say this was a 21-30 system. I mean, in the NL Central, I’d probably put them 5th (off the top … I haven’t that thoroughly gone through the other organizations). Before anyone says anything about Cubs bias here, my argument would be that the Cubs lower levels have as much upside, if not more, and the Cubs upper levels have a bit more depth, and the best Cubs prospect is in AAA now.
you have a good point
The Cubs’ system certainly does suck.
Let's also keep in mind
That the Astros probably aren’t done trading. Bourn is next on the chopping block.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
seems pretty clear what the thought process is in Houston
The focus isn’t just on an overhauling of the roster, it’s also on an overhauling of the budget. The aggressive promotions and trades aren’t just making the team younger, they’re making it cheaper, which should enhance the flexibility of the team’s front office operations.
I’m not huge on either Cosart or Singleton, but the first has excellent raw talent and the second a decent if overrated bat.
you do realize
that I was saying that the Cubs would be ahead of the Astros and Brewers? It’s late, so maybe I’m misreading that statement.
yes, I know what you're saying
The Astros’ farm is clearly ahead of the Brewers’ at the moment. I think they’re clearly ahead of the Cubs, as well, with or without Martinez and Altuve. Personally I’m not going to penalize their farm for the FO decision to jump two of their best guys from AA to the majors, one of whom who had a whole month at the lower level, but YMMV.
I'm curious how they are clearly ahead of the Cubs
I think both are probably in the bottom third, but clearly ahead? I’ll acknowledge I certainly have bias here, but I just don’t see a big difference between B.Jackson/Matt Szczur/Trey McNutt at the top versus, say, Cosart/Singleton. The Cubs lower levels have more potential impact arms, while the Astros probably have a better positional grouping in the A ball full season ranks. The upper level positional talent looks about even to me – I don’t see how JD Martinez is someone that would be significantly ahead of, say, Ryan Flaherty.
Are you including draft picks? If so, then that will likely bump the Cubs up a bit more, as they are supposed to be coming in with a big number of over-slots.
I'm with kupe, I like Houston's system more
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can you guys run through the Astros system top say, 10 for me
I’m going through their entire system right now, and … I’m not seeing that much intrigue. their lower levels look thinner than I had thought.
btw, I'm including Altuve and Martinez for the Astros
since kupe seemed to leave that open.
I see it more as
I like HOU’s top 3 (Springer/Cosart/Singleton) a good bit more than CHC’s (Jackson/Szczur/Baez). One of the main reasons is that I think Houston has significantly more impact potential in their top 3. After that, the systems are mostly lower level upside plays.
As for a top 10 (including Altuve/Martinez):
1. Springer
2. Cosart
3. Singleton
4. Altuve
5. Folty
6. Villar
7. Ovando
8. Martinez
9. Wates
10. DeShields
Mind you, that’s a completely ad hoc ranking that didn’t involve much thought.
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wait
if we’re involving draft picks, well … that’s a tough one to judge for the Cubs right now, with all the hot and heavy rumors coming in on their spending.
crap
Even if you say their top 3 is that much better for you, after 3, their system’s pretty ugly. Actually, it’s downright ugly.
Using John’s scale for a moment, how are you grading the rest of the top 10 for the Astros?
I guess it comes down to how much you love Altuve? I’m not sold on Altuve’s power being anything close to what he showed in AA. Folty’s been pretty mediocre with mediocre reports.
Altuve is a B
Folty – Wates is probably a B-. DeShields a C+.
Again, ad hoc and completely gut reaction grading.
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Folty is a B-?
Am I missing something? Reports I’ve gotten are that his stuff has been quite mediocre, and his performance, last I checked, wasn’t anything to write home about yet.
Are you buying Altuve’s power? Because if his power is closer to what it was in Low A … I’m not sure he’s any better than say, DJ LeMahieu, and LeMahieu has a bit more upside.
I buy into Altuve’s hit tool and defense. I think he has enough pop to be fine offensively. Solid regular at 2B.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for going lower on Folty. He was a pop up guy last year and got excellent reports. Even if his stuff is down this year, I’m willing to give him a pass for now. I still think there’s enough upside to warrant a B-.
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okay
let me ask this then … what’s your grade on a guy like Nick Struck?
Honestly
I haven’t seen him or paid enough attention to him to give him a real grade.
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okay, let me try another one then
Ben Wells.
I like Ben Wells
I’d probably go B- on him.
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I'll throw in my thoughts on Struck
I think if he would have been in the FSL all year he’d be rating as a C+ with potential to improve, and I’m reluctant to push him too much higher just because the Cubs pushed him hard.
I’d probably go B- as he has a decent chance to rate as a back of the rotation starter.
thats interesting
most of the comments i hear on struck seem to imply the opposite (granted, not many people talk about him).
I only brought it up in comparison to Folty because Struck’s overall arsenal is better than the reports I’ve heard on Folty right now, and his fastball has ticked into the mid-90’s more consistently. He needs to improve his curve/slider/change to the point where it’s doing more than simply flashing above average potential, and is actually consistently above average. He also needs to stop going to the 2-seamer so much.
if you're arguing that Struck is a better pitcher at present than Folty, then okay
He’s also 2 years older.
I don’t see him being a reliever, at least in the near future, as he has a decent fastball and at least some feel for multiple secondaries. But I don’t really see enough in the overall package to project him to higher than back of the rotation with a mid-rotation upside.
I was simply asking Jeff
because Jeff was giving Folty a B- in a gut reaction, and a lot of folks were suggesting a C+ or lower for Struck. I think your last sentence is a fair comment on Struck, back of rotation possibility with mid-rotation upside.
Should be noted that Struck has some more, for lack of a better term right now, developmental potential. This is his, um, 3rd year as a full time pitcher, and physically, he’s a very good athlete. I don’t think his upside will ever be more than mid-rotation upside, but I don’t think he’s tapped out to the point where he’s simply working on consistency on his pitches. I know some scouts who caught him this year who believe that he could add another tick onto his fastball, which would have him sitting more in the mid-90’s.
If we're going hit tool/defense matchups
LeMahieu and Altuve are pretty equal. LeMahieu is driving the ball a bit better this year. I don’t think many would give LeMahieu a B, though, and heck, in the Cubs thread of John’s the other day, someone suggested he wasn’t a B-.
Um
Altuve was making multiple midseason top 50 lists from mainstream analysts before getting called up. Maybe you think LeMahieu is as good but you’re bucking consensus.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I don't disagree that I'm bucking consensus
I know I am. I’m just saying – compare the two. LeMahieu – plus hit tool. LeMahieu’s glove at 2nd – above average. LeMahieu’s power is improved this year.
This isn’t meant to prop up LeMahieu. I’m just not as high on Altuve as most folks.
Folty
Coming into the draft reports had his fastball 92-94mph touching 96 with heavy movement, that’s a plus offering easily. Curveball/changeup flashing above average. Couple all that with physical projection and those are not “mediocre” reports.
Maybe his stuff has declined this season, I haven’t heard to be honest, but even if so… you’re talking about a cold weather arm just out of high school. Not unusual for it to take time for a guy with his profile to adjust to starting every 5 days.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
sure
I’m not really trying to blast him. I think he’s still promising. I just think B- is being awful nice for him right now. Nothing wrong with a C+ on a scale like John’s.
What I’ve heard is that the fastball’s fine, still a good pitch, but the consistency on the curve and change is pedestrian, and that the pitches themselves haven’t shown that well.
wait
i misread this earlier. Folty through Wates are B-? and DeShields, as awful as he’s been, is a C+? Is that what you are saying?
DeShields
Bad stats, but reports on his tools and upside are still positive AFAIK. Also a lot of his lack of success this year is because of a low BABIP for a guy with his speed in A ball. (.293 wouldn’t be low in the majors, but when you’re looking at a guy with 70 speed in the lower minors, which have higher average BABIP, it’s quite low.)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
more troubled with that K rate
For a guy with his skillset to be striking out 23% of the time bothers me. He’s certainly so awfully young that he will develop and learn, but with limited power potential, I just view this as more of a C upside guy. Granted, C/C+ for John isn’t a significant difference.
Not saying you don't knock him down a peg
For his performance this year, but I still think he’s a B- guy. Keep in mind you’re looking at an 18 year old raw athlete in a pitcher’s league.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Deshields
Has to be closer to a straight B than to a C+.
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 30, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Nah
Never been a huge DeShields fan. I think C+ is a good grade for him (tools are too good to warrant a straight C). Answering toonster, yes, that is what I meant.
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see
I just am befuddled with something like that. His hit tool isn’t elite. He has plus speed, sure. But … a kid swinging away like that and not having an elite hit tool warrants a C+?
Those types of guys in the Cubs system, I’ve been giving them straight C’s (roughly) when I write out the Cubs system rankings. These are guys off the top 15 for the Cubs prospect list for me. I mean, considering the average performance for DeShields Jr. this year, your grade is, as you note, more a tools acknowledgment than any commentary on his performance.
seems like a decent enough list to work off of
Then you’ve got some other guys in the mix like Hinze, Bushue, Keuchel, Mier, Kvasnicka (has been more “okay” than “bad” this year, possible breakout next year). The Cubs have a little more depth, but beyond Jackson and Szucur there really isn’t much that impresses me.
re:
Even if I go with Jeff’s grades for the top 3 (and if we’re going with draft picks, current rumors have the Cubs close with Maples, and they had a big, big sleeper pickup in Michael Jensen) of B+/B+/B … and heck, I’ll even go with a B for Altuve, though I’m not really buying it, it sure looks like C+ types from 5 to 11 or 12, and then C guys thereafter.
I’m just not sure how I see a clearly ahead here.
so here's a secondary question
sorry happen to have time on my hand tonight, not too enthused with doing some work on a Friday night …
how much are you liking Singleton vs., say, Szczur? A CF with a plus defensive glove, with a plus hit “tool”/contact ability, with plus speed … and untapped power potential vs. a corner slugger.
how much are you liking George Springer vs. Brett Jackson? It’s clear you like Springer’s ceiling significantly more, but when you compare the two, how are you factoring in readiness/level issues.
It feels like you like the top 3 or 4 of the Astros significantly more than the Cubs top tier, enough to compensate for the Cubs better depth.
Maybe I’m showing bias, though. I just see you giving a guy like Folty a B-, and I’m just befuddled when I didn’t even think a guy like Ben Wells or Dallas Beeler warranted B-‘s, and both guys have upsides that are, as of now, better than Folty’s.
i may have to head to a conference call soon
so I’m curious about your gut reaction rankings to the following Cubs prospects, then: BJax/Szczur/McNutt/Golden/Flaherty/Ha/LeMahieu/Struck/Vitters/Castillo/Wells/Whitenack/Beeler/Rhee. I’ll leave out the Cubs upside pieces, their Ovando/Folty types, since none of them cracked my top 15.
Actually, since Springer isn’t signed, and since there are rumors suggesting Maples might be signed, I’d be curious on your grades on Maples/Baez/Vogelbach/Dunston Jr. (probably the four guys that most Cubs fans feel could crack a top 20 list for the Cubs, although I really love Michael Jensen).
eek, lightning round
All four of your signees would be C/C+s for me with the exception of Baez, who I’d go B-.
You want a ton of grades, I’ll do some. Jackson B, Szczur B, McNutt B-, Golden C+, Struck B-, LeMahieu C+, Flaherty C, Castillo C+, Vitters C+.
The ones that piqued my attention
Sorry, doing a conference call right now, but Flaherty piqued my attention. That’s awfully surprising, and I’ve started hearing a trickle of positive reviews about his glove at 3rd.
Curious for you to compare LeMahieu and Altuve, though.
Let’s see, the BJax grade. An upper level CF who will give you above average defense in CF, hit 15-20 HR’s, get on base, and takes his walks is only a B? I guess you could be giving him a high B, and I view him as a low B+, so maybe there isn’t a big difference, but as much as the luster has come off on BJax, the reports don’t suggest any new negatives, basically reaffirming that he is pretty much the same player as last year (which is a big disappointment). Out of curiosity, what grade did you give him last year?
okay
Just turned 25, hasn’t hit in AAA, still lacks a true major league position? Even if you like his bat, it’s hard to see Flaherty as more than a bench guy.
Had Jackson as B+ last year. It’s not a major downtick for him, but I don’t think he’s progressing as much with the bat as I was hoping he would.
I have LeMahieu as a utility guy and Altuve as a decent, not great, major league 2B.
I wasn’t a huge fan of Baez. Didn’t see the power projection that some others were talking about. Did like his glove and ability to hit for average. Want pro data before I go too high on him.
Altuve vs. LeMahieu
I’m very curious about this one, but what exactly makes Altuve a starter and LeMahieu just a utility guy? I just don’t see the difference in ability to be enough to mark one as a guy who could be a starter, and the other as just a utility guy. I guess, I’ll acknwoledge that if people buy Altuve’s power, then yes, that’s the big factor.
To be fair, my gut instinct view is that LeMahieu and Flaherty will end up as bench/utility/platoon types, maybe starters on a 2nd tier squad. But …
If Flaherty’s glove can stick at 3rd, as most suggest, his bat plays well enough there. It isn’t exactly Marquez Smith. He won’t win batting titles, but a guy who might be able to put up, say, .270/.350/.470 at 3rd is a fairly useful asset. C seems to say that he has no shot to be a regular starter in the bigs, and the solid approach and immense power gives him a fighting chance, even in a corner OF role.
comparing
LeMahieu is like the definition of empty average. Altuve has a more dynamic bat and better plate discipline.
If you think that LeMahieu and Flaherty are bench guys, I have no idea how you see them having a grade that starts with “B”. I could see Flaherty being a bench guy, but again, just turned 25, still hasn’t hit yet in AAA (the level where he should really be at his age), jury still out on competent defense anywhere.
LeMahieu and Flaherty
Prior to his idiotic call-up, the reports were very positive on LeMahieu’s ability to drive the ball. Hasn’t done that in AAA, where he’s back to spraying the ball. He’s a guy that I worry that call-up hurt his development since he got sporadic AB’s. He was on a decent run with the bat when he got called up, and driving it fairly well.
Off gut instinct, I would tend to think that Flaherty is a platoon starter/2nd tier squad starter in the bigs, just to be clear. More Mark DeRosa than Jeff Baker, and probably better than Mark DeRosa. Sure, the age is a concern, but a guy with a good approach and his immense power … C just seems awful low. I can buy that B may be high, but I just was surprised that you gave it a C. I’d easily have Flaherty ahead of LeMahieu, who you went C+ on gut instinct. That said, I’m also factoring in some positive comments I’ve heard about his work at 3rd this year.
he's not Mark DeRosa
If he was DeRosa, he’d be in the majors by now. Also note that DeRosa didn’t become a major league regular until age 31, long after the statute of limitations on prospect-era scouting reports on him expired.
Grade C at his age/level doesn’t mean he can’t contribute, it just means that I’m pretty sold that if he makes it at all, it’s as a fringe/bench piece.
that's an odd comment to make
that if he was Derosa, he’d be in the majors by now. DeRosa didn’t get meaningful AB’s in the bigs until he was 26. I mean, I guess he did have 26 big league AB’s prior to 2001, but those are about as meaningful as the AB’s LeMahieu got in his call-up. DeRosa spent good chunks of his age 24-26 season in AAA, posting fairly pedestrian lines.
as a side note
It should be noted that reports on Brett Jackson’s CF instincts/reads have been much better this year. I think he’ll end up being in the corners for the Cubs during his prime, but I think that will be more the result of being pushed aside by a far better glove, probably Szczur, but perhaps someone else.
actually
Baez as a B- surprises me, and I say that as someone who has been ranking Baez fairly low (5th) in the Cubs system.
quick comments
Castillo – I tend to lean B-. Small difference, but his defense has improved, and he’s got enough offense.
Flaherty – He’s got immense power, shows a good approach. The glove at 3rd is showing well enough to think he might be able to stick there, which I didn’t think was possible at the start of the year. I have him as a B, could buy B- because of an age argument.
Golden – I have him as a B/B- because he’s shown a far better approach at the plate than expected, and his power ceiling is huge.
top guys
Springer over Jackson. Yes, Jackson is more ready. He’s also older and has had more time in the minors. Springer’s power/defense combo is a separator for me.
If you’re comparing Szczur to Singleton, I’ll take Szczur, although I’m pretty high on him.
Cosart is looking way better than anything else that the Cubs have to offer in response. I still am a fan of McNutt, but I’m skeptical that he’s really healthy at this point and am downgrading him significantly until that situation clears up.
I only ask
because the implication seems to be that the top tier of the Astros is significantly ahead to carry the difference, so I figured I’d break it down even further.
I’m guessing, based on your Springer comment, that you’ve got him significantly over Baez, then?
As for McNutt, he’s nicked up this year. I’ve seen, off the top, at least a handful of outings of his, and had reports on others. I haven’t heard anything serious on a medical front, anything for long term concern just yet. The stuff’s still there, and the Cubs might be asking him to throw the change a lot to work on it. I don’t have confirmation on that, though, and that’s based off gut reaction on the number of changes I’ve seen/heard (not saying he’s throwing a ton of changes, btw, just a fair amount to wonder if they are asking him to work on it). That said, the main issue is simple – many Cubs fans view it as a lost year as he just hasn’t had time to work on consistency.
I just haven’t been enthused with Cosart’s performance this year. I only saw one start, though, and everything else was 2ndhand.
Agreed
I have Szczur one spot ahead of Singleton, for what it’s worth. It think the two are virtually identical in prospect status right now.
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Singleton
will really have to have plus power for me to buy that they are close, and I’m not even that bullish on Szczur (at least, compared to some Cubs fans, and some BA writers).
I believe in the power, the approach and the ability to hit for average
I think he has a chance to be a well above-average bat at first base. Now, there’s enough risk here to keep him as a straight B, but I really like the potential in that bat.
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arm-wise
I’m really not trying to bash the Astros system, btw. I’m just not seeing this overall wide gap between the two systems that you and kupe seem to be suggesting. So, I’m looking through the arms -
As bad as the Cubs upper level arms have been this year (and some of it has been the product of bad luck), I just don’t see many arms, pre-Cosart deal, in the Astros system. On paper, it sure looks like the Cubs lower level arms have significantly more upside. Focusing on upper level starters for the moment (AA/AAA), the best arms I’m seeing are Dallas Keuchel, Jarred Cosart, and … ? Ross Seaton?
I didn't specify the gap
I just said I like HOU’s system more.
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ah okay
I thought you were agreeing with kupe’s statement of being clearly ahead. That said, I think 4-30 of the Cubs system is signficantly ahead of the Astros, with more upside on the arm side.
Honestly, spending the last 10 minutes looking at the Astros system, I’m hard pressed to buy this as a top 25 system. Things look pretty iffy after the top few pieces.
I think you read what I said the wrong way
I said that they’re clearly ahead for me. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there is a large gap between the two. It just means that if you gave me a choice of one or the other, I’m definitely taking what the Astros have.
The Cubs system gives me nightmares
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions
the upper levels are weak
Pitching wise, more pen arms than anything, although McNutt still has solid 2, 2/3 type potential and has improved his change, Struck is promising, and Beeler has good mid-rotation potential. Lower levels, though, are loaded with high upside pitching talent.
Positionally, it’s a bigger issue, but the low levels are teeming with intriguing assets. A lot will go by the wayside as they move up, but there’s quality middle infield talent (if Arismendy Alcantara improves offensively, and he’s only 19, he becomes very intriguing, Marcos Hernandez and Carlos Penalver are both high upside shortstop prospects, and Gioskar Amaya has drawn some attention), and they are starting to develop some power prospects in the lower levels.
From the way you guys are making it sound, the Cubs system will probably rank quite low, but I’m far more excited about the system right now than the system last year, when it was ranked high, and even after the Garza trade. I tend to think the system’s only a notch below where most had the Cubs at the end of last year (middle of the pack), but tis me.
Lots and lots of C+/B- upside in this system
No top 100 guys outside of the top three prospects, but there is far more depth here than there was three years ago.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
i remember
when purpura came in. i thought that was going to be the start of a decent run for your org. Granted, it wasn’t completely his fault, but his reign certainly didn’t help, to say the least.
Agreed
I have them in the 18-22 range. At least they aren’t the Brewers or Cubbies.
BTW Kupe, I sent you an email. Get back to me when you get a minute brother.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions
18-22?
Man … I guess I’m just off. I just don’t see that much intrigue in this system, and I find it hard to believe that the top 3 can carry this system to a Top 20 ranking. Add in that Altuve could lose prospect status …
To be fair I haven't put too much stock into anything outside of my top 6
Right now I have it:
1. Tampa
2. Toronto
3. Kansas City
4. Atlanta
5. St Louis (Miller and Martinez boost them)
6. Texas
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
If TOR signs the right guys, I may give them the edge over Tampa
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Lawrie would have to stay under 130 ABs too
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Not really
Considering that Jennings is promoted that could really even it out
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
That is my thinking too
If we sign the majority of our draft class Toronto will be loaded
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you count that on the Beede-Norris-Comer trio to judge that?
Or just a majority of the top 15 rounds. So far the Jays have inked Anderson-Musgrove-Gabryszwski-Burns, and are rumoured to have Beede-Comer and Dean locked up.
That trio is indeed huge
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
With J.D. Martinez possibly coming up
I have to ask for the sake of my Dynasty. J.D. over Goldschmidt?
Not a Goldschmidt fan
But, I would definitely take him over Martinez.
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Cosart moves directly to AA in the Astros system
Singleton to Class A-Advanced Lancaster.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Really difficult spot for Cosart
He obviously wasn’t going to Lancaster, but I’m not sure he’s ready for AA either. I can’t really complain though because I should be able to get to see a few of his starts now.
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I think this is the best move for him
As going to Lancaster, I’m not sold that would’ve been good. They’re going to have to be patient, though. I could see him go through some big time struggles in AA.
all depends on command
He could get blown up here, yes. On the other hand, if he gets locked in and goes on a hot stretch, he certainly has the raw stuff to put up excellent numbers in AA.
Of course, if he did that, the odds of him becoming this year’s Chris Withrow circa 2009 shoot up dramatically.
That's my biggest concern
The injury history and mechanics are a bit scary. Then again, I’ve seen worse, and the raw stuff is worth it IMO.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
for me
it’s quite simple. how consistent is his curveball. When I saw him, the curve was all over the place.
The Giants move to get Beltran doesn't look as bad now compared to this
I know Pence is signed for another year, but he’s going to be a lot of money (~$10+ million), and he’s not as good of a player as Beltran.
I didn’t like the move for the Giants, and I don’t like it for the Phils, but I can understand both, and as a Giants fan, the Phillies overpaying for Pence makes me feel a lot better for the overpay gamble the Giants made for Beltran.
As an aside, with Ibanez, Victorino, Brown, and Pence, there is going to be an odd man out in the Phils outfield. Early signs from Manuel are hinting that Brown will be sent back to AAA. If they do that, any value they gained from the trade is lost. Ibanez and his .287 OBP and awful awful defense have no place in a starting lineup, especially one in playoff contention.
Wheeler >> Cosart or Singleton
I can't count the reasons I should stay
One by one they all just fade away
by HotSludgeSundae on Jul 30, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Sort of
It’s wheeler > cosart > singleton, not many wi argue that, but the gap between wheeler and cosart is pretty small and it’s easily cosart + singleton + zoid + ptbn > wheeler.
Regardless, it’s clear that the winner in all of this is still the Toronto blue jays and their ability to get the most valuable trade assett IMO in rasmus for less than the cost of Beltran or pence.
by gore51 on Jul 30, 2011 1:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ibanez and his .287 OBP and awful awful defense have no place in a starting lineup,
I agree, and Brown isn’t a worse bat right now today. Considering his adventures in RF, though, it makes sense to send him down to acclimate to LF. Mayberry is also hanging around, which made it even easier to demote Brown.
by blackoutyears on Jul 31, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Any guesses to what the Dodgers would have got for Kemp if they put him on the block?
If this is the price for Pence, what does Kemp bring in?
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 2:43 AM EDT reply actions
Man, Kemp would look good in ATL
I won’t even hazard a guess as to what he’d demand.
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What about Teheran, Delgado, Freeman?
Who says no in this deal? Would the Braves have to make it Heyward instead of Freeman?
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd think the Braves say no
I just don’t get the feeling that the Braves are going to anywhere near all-in for any player.
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