Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Jul 25, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
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Tampa Bay Rays 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the Tampa Bay Rays. This list was originally published January 13, 2011. On Tuesday we will review the Chicago Cubs, on Wednesday we will review the Texas Rangers, on Thursday we'll look at the Milwaukee Brewers, and on Friday we'll examine the Minnesota Twins.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Grade A: 3.17 ERA, 75/40 K/BB in 111 innings, 85 hits for the Tampa Bay Rays. Hard to complain about a very successsful rookie season, and he could get even better in time.
2) Matt Moore, LHP, Grade A: Just promoted to Triple-A, fanned seven in first start for Durham. For Double-A Montgomery, posted 2.20 ERA with 131/28 K/BB in 102 innings, just 68 hits. Outstanding prospect.
3) Desmond Jennings, OF, Grade B+: Hit .275/.374/.456 with 12 homers, 17 steals, 45 walks in 338 at-bats for Durham. Just promoted to the majors, will be subject of Prospect of the Day article on Tuesday.
4) Jake McGee, LHP, Grade B+: 2.70 ERA with 38/8 K/BB in 33 innings for Durham, 30 hits, nine saves. Struggled early in the Rays pen and was demoted, but back in the majors now.
5) Chris Archer, RHP, Grade B+: 4.84 ERA with 92/57 K/BB in 100 innings for Montgomery, 112 hits. Struggling with command issues.
6) Josh Sale, OF, Grade B: .216/.292/.373 in 102 at-bats for Princeton in the Appalachian League, three homers, 11 walks, 18 strikeouts. Not very impressive yet, but this is his pro debut.
7) Alex Colome, RHP, Grade B: Just promoted to Double-A. Had a 3.66 ERA with a 92/44 K/BB in 106 innings for High-A Charlotte, 78 hits allowed. Command an issue but strong stuff.
8) Alex Torres, LHP, Grade B: 3.21 ERA, 104/55 K/BB in 101 innings for Durham, 102 hits. Maintaining excellent strikeout rate.
9) Enny Romero, LHP, Grade B: 4.79 ERA for Low-A Bowling Green, 100/48 K/BB in 83 innings, 82 hits, 1.76 GO/AO. Has pitched better than ERA indicates, K/IP and grounders combination stands out.
10) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B: .324/.390/.438 with 24 steals, 33 walks, 63 strikeouts in 333 at-bats for Charlotte, plus strong defensive skills.
11) Jake Thompson, RHP, Grade B-: 2.93 ERA with 32/23 K/BB in 71 innings for Charlotte, 72 hits. Throws strikes, but the K/IP ratio is not impressive at all.
12) Justin O'Conner, C, Grade B-: .163/.226/.296 in 98 at-bats for Princeton, 8/44 BB/K. He hit poorly in rookie ball last year too, and while he is quite young, I think concerns about the bat are now warranted.
13) Drew Vettleson, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .282/.347/.47 for Princeton with 11 steals, 12 walks, 20 strikeouts in 110 at-bats. Very solid performance.
14) Alex Cobb, RHP, Grade B-: 1.87 ERA with 70/16 K/BB in 67 innings for Durham, 3.09 ERA with 22/16 K/BB and 1.52 GO/AO in 35 major league innings over six starts. Obviously an excellent season so far.
15) Nick Barnese, RHP, Grade B-: 3.23 ERA with 65/45 K/BB in 86 innings for Montgomery, 81 hits. He's kept the ERA down and I've liked him as a sleeper for a few years, but his K/BB ratio isn't too hot.
16) Joe Cruz, RHP, Grade B-: Ugly 8.43 ERA with 42/20 K/BB in 47 innings, plus an incredibly bad 75 hits for Montgomery. On the DL since early June with a strained groin.
17) Brandon Guyer, OF, Grade B-: .309/.385/.498, 11 homers, 28 walks, 69 strikeouts, 13 steals in 311 at-bats for Durham. Solid campaign.
18) Scott Shuman, RHP, Grade C+: 5.45 ERA, 64/42 K/BB in 36 innings for Charlotte 22 hits, 1.75 GO/AO. Outstanding strikeout rate with lots of grounders, but very serious control problems this year.
19) Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: Has pitched just 13 innings this year between New York-Penn League and Low-A. Bothered by shoulder problems.
20) Braulio Lara, LHP, Grade C+: 4.78 ERA with 84/45 K/BB in 90 innings for Bowling Green, 85 hits. I felt he was capable of better.
21) Leslie Anderson, OF, Grade C+: .279/.311/.430 with 12 homers, 14 walks, 43 strikeouts for Durham. Very low walk rate limits usefulness as an extra bat.
22) Ryan Brett, 2B, Grade C+: .315/.362/.481 in 108 at-bats for Princeton, nine steals, seven walks, nine strikeouts. No complaints here, performing very well.
23) Tim Beckham, SS, Grade C+: .271/.330/.393 for Montgomery. Incremental improvements.
24) Robinson Chirinos, C, Grade C+: .265/.342/.378 for Durham, 3-for-18 (.167) in the majors. Now 27 years old but will hang around for awhile as a reserve/Quadruple-A type.
Even with some guys not quite living up to expectations, this is still an amazing farm system. Let's discuss it.
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Chirinos
After an awful April offensively, he’s actually been fairly good with the bat since then, hitting close to .300, with a OBP north of .350, and by my quick count, a slugging north of .530. He’s older, but solid defensively, with a strong work ethic, good communication and leadership skills. I think he’s got a shot to be more than a reserve, particularly considering the situation, but even if he was in another spot.
Where will Devin Mesoraco rank on this list
after the Rays trade James Shields for him?
by Kapellmeisters on Jul 26, 2011 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Lee
On the flip side of Chirinos is Lee, who had an amazing April, but his offensive performance since then suggests that the power that people thought was developing in April isn’t there yet.
Sale
Seems to improve as of late, hit in 8 of last 10 games and has shown some isolated power. That analysis is only from tracking box scores though, has anyone seen him in person and has some opinions?
Still, you have to wonder why both Sale and Vettleson were held back into a short-season league this year. Based on where they were picked in the draft their advanced tools should have put them in a full-season league this year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
No disagreement there. The Rays are generally pretty patient, though, so it wasn't terribly surprising.
That’s one thing about Bex. The FO has really pushed him, and he didn’t get much credit for it.
Yeah, I wouldn’t read too much into it at this point in their careers, but their relatively slow starts in ss-A ball does plant a small seed of doubt in my mind.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Vettleson's been really good.
O’Conner concerns me, but I’m less worried about Sale. O’Conner’s +30% K/PA is terrible. Sale was banged up to start the year, so I wonder if his BABIP issues are driven by that. We’ll see as it’s only a SSS, but I’m not concerned at all. I also wonder if they wanted all these guys to play together to have a wave of talent coming in 2015ish. The guys from 2010/2011 drafts all hitting the majors at the same time could be a HUGE influx of talent. If Sale/Vettleson come up in 2015, thy’ll both be in their age 23 season. That works perfectly as the Rays will control them through their age 29 seasons.
Not concerned, maybe
But there’s no way anyone’s putting him on any top 100 prospects lists either
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I suspect
That the organization wanted to keep Sale and Vettleson together early on since they’re long-time buddies and push each other a lot during workouts. I’d heard that Sale had major things to work on in EST, so I’m guessing they just kept Vettleson with him. Also, this team is very slow in moving its prospects. Better for them to hit the majors when they’re closer to their primes anyway.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
McGee's bad start in the majors was masked by the fact that his velocity was bad.
When McGee has had his good velocity (he didn’t have it on his debut last year or on his first trip with the Rays this year), he has not allowed a run. In fact, he has only 2 hits I beleive during that time.
Also, Cobb was seriously underrated.
His command, pitchability, low walk rate, and groundballs will make him a very good pitcher. He has been excellent for the Rays, forcing them to go with a 6 man rotation.
Depends.
I see two avenues for his career (primarily): he stays about the same size he is now and stays at SS or he gets bigger, adds muscle, and moves to 3B/RF. My assumption then is taht if he stays the same size he won’t hit for as much power, but his AVG/OBP will be similar. So either a .270/.340/.400ish line or .270/.350/.450 line. He’s so young (and was so raw when drafted) he’s a hard bat to peg. Either way, he’s a very young SS prospect that’s hit about league average at each level. That’s way better than a late-20s COF/1B with no patience and almost no usable power.
I liked it, so it was him.
Well, I didn’t love it, but I was more on the “its all cool” group if you know what I mean.
That's where I was.
I think some people were a little unreasonable in their expectations about teh Rays taking reaches. I’d rather get 12 top 250 draft prospects than 7 top 150.
Beckham is not criminally underrated.
He WAS criminally overrated. Now he’s just a middle of the road prospect at this point. A 271/.330/.393 line for Montgomery still isn’t much to be excited about. Yeah, he’s 21 and in AA, but at some point the statistics are going to have to improve to show some actual production.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 25, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I read very well. Here was what you said:
“Beckham is criminally underrated. The fact that he was below Leslie Anderson is laughable.” Separating the two sentences means each stands alone. I responded to the first and agree with the second. While being below Anderson is ‘laughable’, Beckham still is not criminally underrated. No need to take things personally.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 25, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's about right, but I could see him being an A-
In terms of pure SS prospects, he’s behind… Jurickson Profar? You could add Manny Machado to the list if you think he’s going to stay at short (I haven’t seen him play, so I can’t comment). Guys who profile as major-league shortstops are pretty few and far between.
In terms of system strength, I think the best development has to be Brandon Guyer, who’s gone from projecting as a fourth OF/tweener-type to an everyday corner OF in 2012.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to see how his bat performs in AA before giving him an A.
If he hits well in AA, I would go straight to an A grade.
Machado
Won’t likely ever be a plus defensive player, but I think he’s solid enough to stay there, provided he cleans up the mental errors that occur at times with kids, and becomes more consistent.
the one thing you can bank on
is that the Orioles will try their best to screw him up. I mean, seriously: who promotes an 18-year-old kid hitting .276/.376/.483 at A-ball after just 40 games?
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
he was killing that league before he got banged up
He slumped after he came back and that drove his line down. I think he would have warranted the promotion if not for the injury, so I don’t have a problem with it.
not every team gives a prospect a full year of development time at each level.
Usually it’s just the Rays. Other teams promote players as their performance warrants it.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 25, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
right, if he was going Bryce Harper on the Sally League
then it makes sense. But he was ~ 25% ahead of the league with the bat after 150 or so at-bats. Why not give him at least a half-season and evaluate after the ASB?
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I cant speak for the Orioles.
Maybe they felt he was ready.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 25, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
well, that's the other component of it
What minor-leaguers would you say the Orioles have handled well this past decade, versus the ones they’ve clearly screwed up?
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm thinking A-
True shortstop with plus contact bat, power projection, okay with taking a walk, and room to improve? Yes, please.
Pretty nice year for the system.
Archer’s really the only big name whose struggled, and I think his struggles have been a bit overblown. His BB% is lower than it’s been at any stop but the first half of the season last year in A+. His FIP is still a respectable 4.22, but his BABIP issues have caused a higher BB/9. I’d be interested to know what he’s working on (if anything) in particular that may be the cause for such a high BABIP. Is he trying to work in more change-ups? Work in the zone more? I know Moore has been told to make a concerted effort to work his change, so I wonder if Archer is under similar instruction.
Seems like we never learn about any of the guys in AA.
I have listened to quite a few of his starts though, and I have not heard the announcer ever say he threw a changeup.
He's been generally getting deeper into games too...
He might drop down on the 2012 list, but it won’t be because the Rays aren’t happy with his progress. He’s still only going to be 23 next year.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jul 28, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
O'Conner
What’s the word on his defensive tools at catcher/
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I kind of have my ears open on everything regarding Rays prospects, so I think I can help you out.
His pop times are excellent, but so far that hasn’t translated into the actual game. He has all the tools but needs more time to put those tools to work in a game.
Matt Moore
Has to be in the top 3 of all prospects right now. If he were playing for most of the other teams in baseball he would be pitching in the majors by now.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Harper and who else?
Trout’s going to lose his rookie eligibility
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I was still including Trout.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
man, I love Trout
On the other hand: how many power lefties average twelve-and-a-half Ks per nine? That’s Randy Johnson-in-his-prime-type numbers.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no doubt Moore could be a special pitcher.
IMO, he’s the best pitching prospect in the minors. He will be fun to watch.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 25, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
sign Kershaw to, say, Clay Buchholz's deal
(4/30 from 2012 through 2015, with $13.5MM options in 2016 and 2017) — and it’s Kershaw. Of course, that presumes Kershaw’s agent suffers from some extreme form of mental retardation or something.
On the other hand, if you’re talking about going year-to-year with Kershaw starting this offseason, that could get ugly quickly.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Moore and Colome promotions
Is this just a blip, or are the Rays more open to midseason promotions than in the past?
by cookiedabookie on Jul 25, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
They usually promote pitching prospects in midseason from A+ to AA or AA to AAA
Since their major league promotion schedule is usually midseason, to avoid Super 2 and all that jazz.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
can't wait for the next CBA
which will presumably end the perverse incentives created by super-2. It might be the only thing about which the Players’ Association and the owners can agree.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There will always be some cut-off point
And whatever that cutoff point is, teams will look for ways to make promotions right after it. Sure, the date might move or become fixed year-to-year instead of the current formula, but smart teams will always look to maximize the value they get from players in their most favorable contract years.
by realitypolice on Jul 26, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
oh, sure
but right now, the perverse incentives are hurting teams (in terms of player development) AND players (in terms of $$$).
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 26, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Breakout year (so far) for Jeff Malm in the NYPL
.308/.439/.633
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
The increase in walk rate is particularly encouraging
Although I have no idea how many of those were intentional. HV is a notorious pitcher’s park though, so the fact he’s putting up those kinds of numbers there is pretty encouraging.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I liked the way you put him in your top 30 Rays prospects.
On a serious note, I am really hesitant to punish a prep player after a poor first year. If they do well, good for them. If they don’t, then no need to punish. The second year, imo, is much more important.
One of the parents on a player on Princeton was very mad when some people were banging on Sale (I’m going to guess it was Sale’s parent). Some of the things he said got me thinking about these guys who are playing for their first time.
College players don’t get so much mercy from me though.
Trade deadline
Hey John – with the deadline approaching and the Rays as potential sellers (of course, nothing is for certain), IF the team were to trade for some prospects, what area(s) would you think they’d want to improve on?
I really don't think they'll be selling
At least not in the typical fashion. If they move someone, I’d expect it to be for someone that can immediately contribute.
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
+1
I think the only guy they really will shop hard is BJ. If they can get a really good return for him then I think they’ll pull the switch. It’s possible they might trade Brignac, but would any team value him as much as the Rays do now?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I can't see TB selling low on Brignac
Given his previous history, I still think Brignac’s floor is a 675-ish OPS shorstop worth something like 5-8 runs with the glove, or, I don’t know, 125% of Cesar Izturis. When you consider that Izturis has an 11-year career in the majors going on, that’s clearly a lot more value than Brignac has in trade right now.
I think the Rays will listen on anybody. I think they figured out that they were not going to get substantially more for Shields now than they’ll be able to get in the offseason (think a supersized Matt Garza package), so he’s likely to stick around for now.
The other tradeable commodities they have (beyond Upton) are probably worth more to the Rays than what they might bring in trade (i.e., TB isn’t going to get a front-line prospect for spare parts like Kotchman, Damon, Farnsworth, etc., so why part with them?), but you never know when they might covet another Chirinos-type that they could get in exchange for one of those guys.
Finally, I could see the Rays selling off some of their spare parts — Sam Fuld, Andy Sonnanstine, Justin Ruggiano, Kelly Shoppach — for very little just to create some space on the roster.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
how can brignac's floor be 675?
when he was worse than that this year.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
long-term floor
He’s never had the idiotic uppercut swing he’s sporting now, and I think he can be coached. Maybe that’s too optimistic, but there’s nothing in his previous career that suggests he’s a ~.500 OPS guy.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t thinking of them selling low on Brignac. I was thinking that they might be able to get something really nice in return for him based on the old suplly and demand laws. There’s a real scarcity of SS available right now.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
As a Ray's fan, I'm going to disagree here.
I don’t think they need a MLB ready player for Upton and I’m not so sure they want one.
AJ Cole for Upton would be sweet.
you think they'll trade Cole a year after giving him so much money?
That would surprise me. I suppose they might intend to replace him with Matt Purke, whose signing would also be pretty surprising . . .and yet, for some reason, I think they’re going to get him.
I don't think it'll happen
Purke isn’t even pitching summer ball, and he’s still going to demand $4M+ to sign. I’d be really surprised if they get that one done.
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
not to be greedy
but if Andrew Friedman can fetch 5 players (including 2 B+ guys) for Matt Garza, and 4 guys for Jason Bartlett, I think he can do a lot better than a single B+ level pitcher for Upton.
The way I see it, Upton goes at the trade deadline only if he can fetch more in trade than the Rays could otherwise get in the offseason. Cole-for-Upton straight up is fair market value (at least), to be sure, but the Rays can make that deal in December. I don’t see them making the move in July unless they’re getting more than that.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
not to be greedy but if Andrew Friedman can fetch 5 players (including 2 B+ guys) for Matt Garza, and 4 guys for Jason Bartlett, I think he can do a lot better than a single B+ level pitcher for Upton.
Hey, the poorly run teams are going to run out of top prospects & good young players sooner or later!
Yeah not surprisingly its easier to win offseason trades
The teams that are competing for playoff spots at the deadline tend to have front offices that don’t give away prospects in horribly short-sighted trades.
um
i think you over estimate what was got for bartlett.
are you kidding?
The Rays got a collective 15 cost-controlled years of 3 major-league relievers AND a fringe 2B/SS prospect in exchange for a 31-year-old shortstop with a 79 OPS+ and deteriorating defense? And they saved $6 million in the process??
That’s genius, my friend.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Adam Russell is terrible but thank God he's cost-controlled!
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Jul 26, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
relief pitching is unpredictable
Russell is 6’8", throws hard, and wasn’t Mike Ekstrom-style-overmatched in the majors. You can spot a difference between that and, say, Kyle Farnsworth back when he was with the Cubs?
There’s a nonzero chance that Russell turns in 60-70 above-average relief innings at some point in the next couple of years; there’s zero chance that Jason Bartlett was going to be of any value to the Rays over the same timespan. So yeah, I stand by my evaluation of the deal as ‘genius.’
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 26, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry then, how does it provide evidence?
Friedman has to convince another GM, one that isn’t actually terrible at his job this time, to give that sort of guy up.
because lots of GMs are terrible at their jobs?
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 26, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Who do you think are the likely targets?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 27, 2011 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know that the Rays work that way
I mean, there are some obvious answers: Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt. I think they’d like to buy semi-low on Billy Butler.
But I don’t think the Rays set out to target (for example) Hak-ju Lee or Chris Archer in this past offseason, nor do I think they necessarily targeted the Angels back when they dumped Scott Kazmir. I think they just are very, very good at maximizing the amount of talent they get back in trades, regardless of the fit.
The only “target” trade I can think of is probably the franchise’s most significant — the Delmon Young for Bartlett and Garza deal in the ’07 offseason.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 27, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean the GMs
The GMs you mentioned aren’t terrible at their jobs.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 27, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
?
Cubs/Hendry – Terrible
Angels/Reagins – Pretty terrible, but player development good + the Haren trade was a coup. Wells, Rodney, GMJ, Speier, Overpaid Hunter, Takahashi, Fuentes, Jeff Mathis, Kazmir trade…
Twins/Smith – Santana trade – was supposed to be judged by that, well it was an atrocious return. Capps trade was awful. They’ve spent the last two seasons looking for reasons to trade their 2 best starters (Baker & Liriano) or take them out of the rotation. Gave up on & gave away Hardy for nothing, Garza+ for Delmon…
Who among teams looking at Upton has a terrible GM?
At least in terms of making trades?
Most of the teams with terrible GMs are already out of the playoff race and thus have no interest in Upton
I think we've covered the landscape here.
Check back in Sunday evening and we’ll see what they do.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 27, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
My prediction
Upton might bring in a B prospect, along with at least one B-, and a few C+ guys. Rays will take quantity over quality.
Seriously?
How does Friedman making a couple very good trades last offseason provide evidence for the idea that he’s going to make a very good trade? The circumstances are harder because there are fewer suitors than in the offseason and contenders probably tend to have better management (though the Nats apparently love Upton and Mike Rizzo has his moments of idiocy – like the Gomes trade – between good decisions), but I think that someone doing something twice is pretty good evidence for them doing it again especially when it’s a good thing to do.
The Nats, Giants, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Rangers, and Brewers seem to be looking to buy. Rizzo loves Upton and does crazy things sometimes, Sabean has been better recently but does occasionally make silly trades, Amaro gets too much credit for how good the Phils are, Daniels has shown he’s willing to make big trades, and Melvin is going all in this year. I don’t see Frank Wren or Theo Epstein doing anything since Wren is another great GM and while he has a CF problem I think he’d rather have Beltran and won’t trade any of his top pitching prospects and Epstein has Josh Reddick while Drew is out and is going to the playoffs anyway – besides, he needs pitching.
Point is, the Rays have plenty of suitors for a 26 year old true CF with solid offense, upside, and another year of control in a crappy market for buyers.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Didn't say he couldn't make a very good trade
I just don’t think there is any chance he get’s a B+ prospect because that would just be an absolute fleecing. Even the Nats who seem like the team in the bidding with the most questionable management have supposedly refused to include Peacock or Detwiler which I think makes it clear the Rays aren’t getting a B+ prospect from them.
It actually seems like the Rays are targeting multiple solid prospects as opposed to any high end type, which seems more likely to happen. Like I said, I think Friedman will probably make a good trade, I just don’t think he’s getting a B+ prospect and the trades in the offseason don’t really make me think its anymore likely.
no, i'm not kidding
15 cost-controlled years of 3 major-league relievers? I’m sorry, but what planet are we on where that has profound value? Sure, it helps, but maybe you should take your hand out of your pants. You need to throw something better than that to call someone genius on a deal.
Let me state that I do believe that Friedman is a genius, along with several other GMs (including Hoyer), but for you to sit here and tell me that this haul should make me cry happy tears of joy and we should all have pity for the victimized Padres…, pffft. Give me a break.
It was a small fry deal that helped both teams under the circumstances. for you to say otherwise makes you seem like a nerfherding homer.
I suggest un-bolding the 15 cost-controlled years part of your thing until we see what those 15 years involve. At this point, you can have 5 years of Adam Russell. (and the deteriorating defense has actually regressed, but not that you care.)
And btw, how can you make one post about how 15 years of relievers is genius, then the next post say that relief pitching is unpredictable? You are ridiculous or desperate. Maybe both.
Friedman is a genius. Hoyer is too. (plus AA, love that guy). You sir, are not. Quite the opposite if you continue your line of thinking.
Be well.
I don't want to start a flame war here
but you need to re-evaluate how you present your arguments. I think you have many valid points, but they are lost with the negative comments like “maybe you should take your hand out of your pants” and “You are ridiculous or desperate” and “Friedman is a genius…You sir, are not”. These points offer nothing to a productive discussion. AndrewTorrez has been a solid poster on here, and said nothing that should have incited such negative language from you. Honestly, I haven’t seen you on here before this thread. I think everyone should be allowed to argue their points, but they also need to make their points without personal attacks. Not trying to single you out, as I think this could go for anyone who posts here.
by cookiedabookie on Jul 27, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
yeh cookie
you may be right.
i meant to be inflammatory to a certain extent, as i read some ‘fightin words’ on his comments, but i have to point out that i did not say anything ‘rated R’. i see no problem with my post, as there are much stronger words i could have used.
i see your point, but i would like to say that whether i’ve never posted or he’s posted for the last 40 years, it shouldn’t make a difference. maybe in recognition, but that’s about it.
please reassess what negative language is, and i’ll be happy to return the favor and go a bit lighter on the touch next time cook.
Well
My point is not that they’re going to be sellers or even that they MIGHT be sellers. I’m just interested in hearing what John has to say about what he would target if he were in charge of the Rays, when they’ve got such a great pool of prospects already.
This system is simply ridiculous
How many guys B- or higher do they have after signing most/all their first round picks?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
plus guys who weren't on John's top 24 list
but who are having breakout seasons: Jeff Malm, Derek Dietrich, C.J. Riefenhauser, Tyler Bortnick, Marquis Fleming, and Jose Lobaton all come to mind.
by AndrewTorrez on Jul 25, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely not
Do we know anything about him yet?
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
someone SHOULD take a chance and rank him highly
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 26, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I was actually thinking of the opposite.
It might be easier for me to make a top 50 list for the system than a top 30.
This is so anti homer, but I feel like the system is overrated.
I had 17 B- or higher looking at it midseason.
Of the drafrees I had Guerrieri & Mahtook as Bs. Eierman, Goetzman and Goeddel as B-s. Number of borderline guys there, too.
Cruz was pitching with a tear in his shoulder.
He’s out for the season.
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