Oscar Taveras
by ufo on Jul 22, 2011 6:03 PM EDT
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how good is he? i havent heard much about him before last week, is he a top 50 prospect next year? his avg is eye-opening, but will he keep that up, and how does his power and speed compare to other prospects?
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Taveras
2010 was his first year stateside; as an 17/18 yo, he was something like 6th in the Appy League in OPS. IIRC, he was rated by BA as the 2nd best position prospect in the league (by BA). Not a bad debut for a relatively obscure prospect in his first year stateside. Good ARL to boot.
You can see numbers he’s put up in limited time in 2011. They scream for (downward) correction, but his 2010 makes a case that they’re not entirely a fluke, and could still be strong for the remainder. If you take 80 points off each slash stat, he’s still got very impressive numbers.
So what is he going forward? I don’t think we really know yet. He’s a lefty that seems to hit lefties well, has good tools now with a body type that could conceivably hold its athleticism while he ages, and seems to have a fine natural feel for hitting even as he (obviously) needs further development. His injury this year probably hampers our awareness of his speed and defense, and couldn’t have helped that hitting development; but it’s also a blip thus far, and if he stays healthy it seems like we’ll have a much better sense of his tools 10 weeks from now.
If he grades out with above average speed, arm, defense, and contact (which is currently what he seems to have), then he can easily be a starting CF or backup COF even without developing any more pop. If he gets more pop, then the bar for the remaining tools obviously can drop a little lower. I think a lot will revolve around pop and batting eye – which trajectory will these skills follow for him?
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Taveras
As someone who follows the Cards farm system very closely Taveras has been on my radar for some time. He has always been intriguing but starting last year he started getting me very excited with his skills and production. Though he has missed some time this year with a quad injury (2 stints on the DL) he never misses a beat. Here is the book on Taveras overall:
1) He has a very advanced hitting approach. He sees the ball very well and always seems to put the barrel of the ball.
2) He has a good mix of avg, power and speed (though slowed a bit by his quad this year).
3) He takes very few walks which might hurt him when he sees more advanced pitching. This is one of the very few parts of his game that needs a lot of work.
4) He can play all 3 OF positions and has an above avg arm. When fully healthy he can certainly handle CF.
5) He needs to work on his baserunning. He needs to work on his reads on pitchers and jumps. He would benefit quite a bit from working with a baserunning specialist in the offseason to get better technique.
6) His ceiling is very promising. I see a ceiling as an above avg CF defender. On offense he could hit .315+ with 30+ doubles, 20+ HR’s and 20+ SB’s. He has 5 legit tools at this point.
All in all I am extremely high on Taveras and have designated him as “untouchable” along with Miller and Martinez in a trade. To me by far the best upside offensive player in our system. Just glad he is getting National attention.
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Highest by far?
They are a bit different kinds of prospects and Taveras probably does have higher upside, but Kolten Wong is doing amazing things leading off ahead of Taveras in Quad Cities. Sure Wong is considered more of a “high floor” type, but possibly becoming a Pedroia-like player is a pretty nice ceiling.
My friend saw him play earlier this year and said the thing that really stuck out about him was how he rocked every ball he hit, kind of a Matt Hollidays-esque vibe where everything – grounders, liners, flies – just rocket off the bat.
That kind of thing can explain some of his ability to post high BABIPs, considering those reports of average speed, although this season his BABIP is just ridiculous any way you look at it.
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