Prospect of the Day: Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

by John Sickels on Jul 21, 2011 8:00 AM EDT

Prospect of the Day: Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

Houston Astros second base prospect Jose Altuve was promoted to the majors Tuesday night. Is this unique talent being rushed?

Altuve was signed by the Astros out of Venezuela in 2006. After a strong '07 in the Venezuelan Summer League, he moved up to North America in '08 and hit .284/.320/.433 in 40 games for Greenville in the Appalachian League. He returned to Greenville in '09 and hit .324/.408/.508 with 21 steals in just 45 games, earning him a promotion to Tri-City in the New York-Penn League, where he hit .250/.337/.316 in 2 games. He began '10 with Lexington in the Low-A South Atlantic League, hitting .308/.364/.445 with 39 steals and 11 homers, then moved up to High-A Lancaster in the Cal League and hit .276/.333/.457.

Returning to Lancaster for 2011, he hit a stunning .408/.451/.606 with 19 steals in 52 games. He continued his hot hitting after being promoted to the Texas League, hitting .361/.388/.569 for Corpus Christi, giving him an overall line of .389/.426/.591 with 24 steals, 26 walks, and 40 strikeouts in 357 at-bats this year.

Overall, in 382 minor league games, Altuve has hit .327/.386/.481.

His statistical performance is obviously outstanding, but Altuve presents a quandary for scouts. He's just 21 years old, and normally a player that age with these kinds of numbers would be all over prospect lists. But Altuve is a small guy, listed at 5-7, 170, in reality he's more like 5-5. He's a good athlete, with average speed but terrific instincts on the bases. Although he's not a walk machine, he makes contact, shows surprising power to all fields, and seems to have few weaknesses at the plate, laying off pitches he can't hit and punishing mistakes. He has plenty of bat speed and is not easy to overpower, contrary to the stereotype for smaller players.

Altuve is also a more-than-solid defensive player at second base, unusually reliable for his age. He doesn't have the range for shortstop, but his arm is strong enough that the Astros have given him some innings at third base. He plays with polish and enthusiasm, and scouts love his makeup.

The only negative for Altuve, and the only reason he didn't rank higher on pre-season prospect lists, is his size. Scouts simply have a hard time projecting a player who is this short as a good major leaguer. However, he began to win people over in 2010, and his performance in '11 has been so good that it is increasingly difficult to be skeptical.

Is Altuve the next David Eckstein or Dustin Pedroia? I don't think he'll have as much power as Pedroia has shown, but he should have more than Eckstein. At age 21, with just 35 games of Double-A under his belt and no Triple-A experience at all, it is wise to keep our short-term expectations in check. But in the medium and long runs, given his habit of exceeding expectations, I'm quite optimistic about Altuve.

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Comments

Good stuff as always

But, I really don’t like the Eckstein comp. I’ve seen it thrown around a lot and frankly, I think Eckstein was a colossally overrated player. He was scrappy, played good defense and gave 110%, but as a hitter he was basically replacement level most of his career. He stole some bases but was also caught a lot, never had anything that resembled pop, and has a career OPS well below league average. I see Altuve as being a much, much more talented hitter- a guy that can post OPS over .800 in the majors at his peak with some double digit HR seasons, maybe maxing out around 15. I agree that Pedroia does have more power, but I think we could see Altuve post some seasons like Pedroia’s 2008 and 2009- very high average, 10-15 HRs, 20 SB and 40-50 doubles. He may never reach that level of production, but I think it’s a fair estimation of what his peak could be.

by kyuss94 on Jul 21, 2011 12:05 PM EDT reply actions

I think that's a fair ceiling estimation

Certainly, his floor is quite a bit lower than that (BA would like you to believe he is a utility infielder), but I think it’s possible he could be as good as you describe.

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by OremLK on Jul 21, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Polanco, Polanco, Polanco

True weapon in the #2 hole in any lineup

by jwa1417 on Jul 21, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Replacement?

David Eckstein? With the 5.5 WAR ’02 and the 4.2 WAR 2005? Eckstein got on base, played decent defense, put the ball in play (career 280 hitter!), and took advantage on the basepaths. Part of the issue here is that Eckstein hung on, so the collective memory of him is more the diminished, overrated scrapper he became and not the pesky player he was in his prime.

Eck’s hardly a HOF’r, but he was a damn good ballplayer for a while there. Altuve would do well to be as good as David Eckstein.

by GuyinNY on Jul 22, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

He was above replacement level

But let’s be honest, a guy who averaged 1.89 WAR per season over a ten-year career was a good bench player or a fringe regular—a good ballplayer by overall baseball standards, but a below average player in the context of the major leagues as a whole.

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by OremLK on Jul 22, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Career/Prime

FWIW, during the first 5 years of his career, Eckstein averaged 2.9 WAR (and was really only below average in one of those seasons – though technically only had 1.9 WAR in another.) I stand by my original statement: Eckstein was a pretty good ballplayer in his prime, and the back end of his career drags down people’s perception of him.

Eckstein seems likely to get short shrift historically, as myth becomes fact. While he hung on for a while there, it’s really unfair to think of him as anything less than a perfectly cromulent Big Leaguer, and a good one in his 5 year prime.

by GuyinNY on Jul 22, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose that's fair

But his prime was pretty short.

At least Altuve is getting started a lot earlier I guess.

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by OremLK on Jul 22, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Only wish I had intended a pun with the "pretty short" thing

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by OremLK on Jul 22, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Lulz

Ok, I lol’d at that one.

And yeah, Eckstein’s prime/usefulness wasn’t that long. Because Altuve is coming up much younger, and seems to have more potential, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him be useful for longer than Eckstein. I do think he’ll be similar, if not slightly better by quantity, in total value (a roughly 3+ WAR player) in his prime.

by GuyinNY on Jul 23, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

so, short guys CAN play baseball!

I’d say Polanco is a good comparison.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 22, 2011 7:27 AM EDT reply actions

First six games

.381/.409/.476 – all hail the mighty Altuve!

by cookiedabookie on Jul 27, 2011 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

Comparison

Would Alexi Amarista be a decent comp? Both are prospects with somewhat similar numbers. They both don’t walk a whole lot but make good contact with the ball. They seem to have similar speed, and they are both really short MI’s. Altuve’s got a little more power, but otherwise they compare fairly well. Thoughts?

by rw192925 on Aug 4, 2011 11:35 PM EDT reply actions