All-time prospects

by revans on Jul 20, 2011 2:55 PM EDT

Not sure if there has been something similar to this on here (probably has) but I have been thinking a lot about how some of the current top prospects in baseball compare with what earlier prospects have done. would a 2011 Matt Moore be ranked ahead of a 2007 Homer Bailey? Would a 2006 Delmon Young be more hyped than Mike Trout is? I feel like prospecting has become more of a science even in the last 3-4 years than it was earlier in the decade. This could just be me but I feel like a lot more of the top prospects have actually panned out and I don't know if that is becasue we have simply had a wave of incredibly talented prospects in the last few years or because of better evaluation of young baseball talent. Like I said above there may already be a post discussing this, but I haven't been visiting the site as much in the last year and a half or so, so I apologize if I have just wasted anyone's time.

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I think you would have a tough time leaving out MLB performance.

Take a guy like Delmon Young. Sure there were some concerns if you look back at his minor league stats trying to find reason not to rank him the #1 prospect in baseball in 2006.

BA does have an archive of their top 100 lists though which may help you get started.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

by jfish26101 on Jul 20, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

Hindsight

Yeah, I agree here. It would be so hard not to use hindsight, or what has happened since the player’s original ranking. It would make for an interesting read though.

by killa on Jul 20, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

You should be able to do without hindsight, going back as far as you (or anyone, in general) have been paying attention the minor leagues.

Matt Wieters was a better prospect than probably any catcher since Joe Mauer, even if it didn’t work out that way, we can see why he was at the time.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 20, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

IIRC

Andruw Jones was SUPER hyped coming up (what BA’s player of the year two years in a row).

1995 he put up a line of: .277/.372/.512 as a 18 year old in low A
1996 he put up a line of: .336/.421/.652 as a 19 year old in A+/AA/AAA

that 1996 line was just SILLY. K:BB ratio was a slight concern (97:60) but didn’t reveal the issues he’d grow to have in the Majors. I still think that 1996 year is one of the best of the past 30 years when you take into account the age of the kid and the levels.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jul 20, 2011 4:51 PM EDT reply actions

I wasn’t even following prospects yet and remember hearing about Andruw (as a Braves fan). I started watching back in ‘89 and remember hearing a good deal about Chipper as well. Speaking of hindsight, glad they didn’t go with Van Poppel! :D

by jfish26101 on Jul 20, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Jones' 1996 was superhuman...

When you consider that he was also probably the best defensive outfielder, maybe best defender period, in the minor leagues at the time. He was like Bryce Harper if Harper played CF with Mays’ caliber defense.

A-Rod’s 1994 season and Adrian Beltre’s 1997/1998 both also fit that incredible “I have no weaknesses” level of performance. Beltre as a 19 year old walked more than he struck out while hitting for power…it’s really a shame the Dodgers rushed him the way they did. His plate discipline pretty much fell apart after 2000 (how weird is that? His two best years in terms of walks were his 1st and 2nd full seasons).

Overall though, I’m not sure the hit rate is all that much better now than it was in the past. Even a guy like Trout could pull a Beltre and just end up very good, rather than the superstar most expect. Ditto Harper.

Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com

by Franchise887 on Jul 20, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I did...

A top-10 since 1990’at one point last year in. A diary on here. Should be findable without too much work but I’m lazy right now. #1 was A-Rod (siously, go back and look at his age 19 season, from a plus defense shortstop…absolutely ridiculous). #2 was Jones.

by slamcactus on Jul 21, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/11/9/1123473/top-10-prospects-of-the-last-20

by gobruins12345 on Jul 21, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

BA has done that before as well…I wonder if I can find the issue. It was an “Ask BA” column if I remember correctly, not that long ago either.

by jfish26101 on Jul 21, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess it was a little different...

they ranked the top 15 draft prospects of the past 20 years with a small explanation for each placement. From the 2010 draft preview issue:

1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Mark Prior
3. Ben McDonald
4. Justin Upton
5. Todd Van Poppel
6. Brien Taylor
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. JD Drew
9. David Price
10. Matt Wieters
11. Paul Wilson
12. Kris Benson
13. Mark Teixeira
14. Pedro Alvarez
15. Bryce Harper

I doubt anyone from this year’s drafts would have made the list.

Somewhat curious to see Harper 15th.

by jfish26101 on Jul 22, 2011 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions