7/19 MiLB - Jose Altuve Day
Don't have time to look up probables/results, just wanted to get one up for today.
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According to JP Schwartz, on the hill tonight...
Trevor May
Asher Wojciechowski
Matt Bashore
Kyle Drabek
Rudy Owens
Chad Jenks
Joe Wieland
Simon Castro
Drake Britton
Chien Ming Wang
Maikel Cleto
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 7:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Predictions for Jose Altuve?
I will go with: 2 hits
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 7:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
i'll take the under
as he’s not in the lineup tonight
certainly makes it more difficult...
But with Altuve, anything is possible.
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 7:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Going to be difficult
May require extra innings for him to join the team in time to pinch hit.
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good point
But I just can’t bet against him, haha.
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 7:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What's all the fuss?
Now I know this kid has been hitting the lights out (seems like he gets 2 hits every game). I know everyone is going nuts over him. But I look at the height and I agree with some of the scouts who are concerned that he can do well in the majors. My other question that no one seems to have answered is: How is his glove? Can this guy play 2B/SS and get the job done? Size could be a problem here as well. I just think the jury is still out and I, for one, will proceed with caution before I go nuts. I’ll admit I tried to nab him in my dynasty league dispersal draft but someone beat me to it (it was a VERY late pick and back in April). Interesting weeks ahead for him, for sure.
by rblythepittsteel on Jul 20, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Heard reports ranging from "solid defensive second baseman"
To true plus fielder at second base.
You know, I was telling my wife (non-baseball fan) about Altuve last night, and told her about how there’s a lot of doubt about him due to his height. She said, “What do they think he won’t be able to do because he’s short? Will he not be able to reach some balls hit at him?” I said, “Well, from what I hear he’s a good fielder, so I don’t think his glove is an issue…” then I just kinda stood there not really able to give her a good answer.
Still don’t really have a good answer to her question. His tools are good, he’s a ridiculously good hitter. What is it exactly that some scouts think his height will hold back, in terms of his performance? If it’s just because there haven’t been many hitters that short in the past, the more I think about it, the more I think that’s piss-poor reasoning (pardon the french).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Not a plus defender
in any video or game action I’ve seen. Maybe solid average. He’s not a great runner either, and it’s definitely a function of his height combined with his thick build. It’s actually a sort of galumphing gait.
I love the hitting approach and swing. He’s balanced all the way through and routinely drives the ball. At worst some of the homers turn into doubles at the highest level, but he could hit a fair number of them. I could actually see him posting performance numbers similar to Starlin Castro’s, though it’s not a comp that normally springs to mind.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I know he's not a plus runner
But when I’ve seen him, I felt like his speed was a bit above average, and played up due to his aggressiveness and baseball instincts.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think it's avg at best,
and he’s pretty thick. The Pedroia comp is a bit facile imo as he’s no the caliber of defender and he’s probably a tick slower than Pedey due to the physique.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
His running is a bit above average. Living here in CC where he has played
AA ball and having seen him in person his speed is a bit above average.
Disagree,
but I guess it depends on how you define it. Between video and Futures Game I have my opinion. It’s not a smooth gait.
by blackoutyears on Jul 21, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right. It isn't smooth. Doesn't mean he isn't fast tho.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 21, 2011 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Apparently we're not that far apart anyway
It sounds like you think his speed is solid average (is that right?) and we’re thinking it’s a tick above that. Not that much difference between 50 and 55 speed.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I never thought we were far apart
You asked for ways his height affects his play and this is one. The point was not to determine which half grade on the scouting scale he deserves. I’m not going to get excited by a 55 as some big advance over a 50. If you take Torreyes as a contrast, he’s actually a plus runner and plus defender, thanks to a more slender build. His height is more likely to affect his future power potential, whereas Altuve’s thicker build (combined with his picture perfect swing) is exactly what led me to believe that he he would have at least above average gap power and more over the fence power than the eye test would suggest.
by blackoutyears on Jul 21, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Re:
I think the main issue with the height is leverage to hit with power. He seems like a strong kid though so he probably wont get the bat knocked out of his hands everytime (like perhaps a Billy Hamilton). I think the power is the biggest concern…
For the season, that is
But he was still hitting for power at the same rate when he moved up to AA.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Yeah, and it's Double-A
I’m interested to see how much over the fence power he brings to the majors. The swing is conducive to pop, that’s for sure. Good bat plane and bat speed and strong hands and wrists. He is nothing like Hamilton or Dee Gordon and there is little to no chance the bat gets knocked out of his hands, Dfarth. I don’t think strength is an issue.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
he should be excellent at turning the double play and picking off the runner
any ball in the dirt is head height for him ;)
Altuve has been called up to Houston
Will be in starting lineup tomorrow with Jeff Keppinger being traded to the Giants. WOO!!!
http://www.FireBradMills.com
http://www.FireEdWade.com
In death we have a name...
His name is Jose Altuve. His name is Jose Altuve.
by RevJenkins on Jul 19, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
drake britton
another disastrous outing- 3.2 ip, 7 hits, 5 er, 6 k’s, 2 bb’s. i am not watching the game but it seems that he did well the first time through the order and then got tagged…
major disappointment this year
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 10:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Weren't people putting Lester comps on him last year?
What happened?
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com
4-5 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI
for those who don’t want to look it up. Average back up to .419 after nearly dropping below .400 a week ago and OPS back over 1.300
Last 10 games
16-35 (.457) 4 HR 16 RBI 8 bb 8 k….I would think at some point they would stop pitching to him.
they already have
Fortunately, Oscar Hernandez has found a way around that . . .when pitchers stop pitching to Oscar Hernandez, Oscar Hernandez does both the pitching AND the hitting.
by mrkupe on Jul 19, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I would think at some point the Rays would promote him.
but then again, it is the Rays.
by Looney4baseball on Jul 19, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
yea I don't think it is too much of a stretch to not expect him in the majors for 8 years
even if he is a legit prospect
how old is he?
Or are we assuming the Desmond Jennings plan?
by Looney4baseball on Jul 19, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
just turned 18 a couple weeks ago I think I don't remember exactly
I know he was 17 for most of the season.
It's the VSL
Take his reported age (just turned 18, as others have commented), roll a 6-sided dice, and add that number to it.
Rooting for lovable losers since 1984.
by seattlecougar on Jul 20, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Dumb question
Does anyone know if he actually has a travel visa to enter the States at this point?
by realitypolice on Jul 19, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He is a freak
All fear Oscar the Grouch!!!
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually think he's gonna be worse than Maybin.
Tools only take you so far. Give me a ballplayer over an athlete.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
.800 OPS in a pitchers league with a .110 ISO Discipline and plus D in center
= a pretty decent ballplayer
.786 OPS actually and he strikes out nearly once per game.
And he’s only in high-A ball 3 years out of HS. You’re a “top prospect” who’s 3 years removed from HS…you better be doing it in AA or AAA. He’s not even doing particularly well in high-A ball.
Pretty hard to get excited at all about a guy with a sub-800 OPS in the lower minors while being 3 years out of HS. He’s gonna get eaten alive once he hits the upper minors.
At some point in your career you have to show that you can do more than take 4 balls at the plate. Maybe make some contact or show some in-game power. I’ve never seen a guy who consistently underperforms at the plate and doesn’t have the ARL excuse, yet never drops out of the top 25.
Maybin dropped an OPS of .879 in the same exact league at one year younger.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Hicks
The funny thing is that Anthony Gose is definitely a better prospect than this guy.
But he didn’t go 1st round. Hicks did.
People love that 1st round tag, even when the guy can’t hit.
See: Josh Vitters (although he can make contact…just can’t do anything with his ABs and can’t take a pitch).
by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're oversimplifying the case here
I’m a little reluctant to enter into a Hicks debate because he’s been somewhat polarizing and I doubt that we’ll plow any unfurrowed ground at this point. But I see that you’ve just joined recently (or just changed a name) and perhaps have missed the scintillating debate thus far. It basically boils down to:
- 20% of community: “He’s a great athlete with OB skills and a home on defense – his floor alone makes him Top 50.”
- 20% of community: “His performance is underwhelming, elite athletes are a dime a dozen, and he’s overhyped until he shows advanced hitting skills.”
- 60% of community: “Let’s wait and see.”
I’m in the latter camp…Hicks flashes just enough glimpses of progress that if you kinda sorta squint, you can agree with him still being a guy who could turn the corner and make good on all that progress. Just like Maybin might still, or Jerry Sands, or Travis Snider or Dexter Fowler, or any of a host of other guys who stillhave a little time to put it together.
Regarding your comment about a guy never dropping out of the Top 25, sure. But the point is that “never” has not yet arrived for Hicks. Nobody is saying he’ll still be Top 25 if he’s still league average in AA three years from now. A lot of good things can happen in those three years though.
I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls.
(or just changed a name)
I salute your perspicacity, sidd…
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post, Sidd.
I actually agree with quite a bit of this.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Aww shucks, thanks
I guess this means we can be friends.
Oh, and guys whose time I think has run out: Felix Pie, Carlos Gomez, Wily Mo Pena, Travis Buck, Brad Komminsk.
I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls. I will not feed trolls.
Brad Komminsk.
Cute. I’m pretty down on Kelly Gruber and Randy Ready at this point. Get ready for the Gookie Dawkins comeback though. You heard it here first.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Sean Burroughs panned out what?
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 20, 2011 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions
IsoD is a flawed stat
since OBP and BA have different denominators (OBP has PA, and BA has AB). IsoP works because they both have the same denominator of AB. One way you can see the flaw of this is an extreme case of a player who was 1-1 with 400 walks, because using IsoD you’d think he had awful discipline, (.000 IsoD) when in reality his plate discipline would be historically good. IMO, the best way to measure discipline is BB%.
by gore51 on Jul 20, 2011 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Skills to take a walk + athlete tools = one hell of a future
He’s no Maybin
Ummm, Maybin had skills to take a walk + better athleticism + better in-game power + better ARLs
You’re right. He’s no Maybin. He’s worse.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Over simplifying things a bit
First, you’re unquestionably right about both players having the ability to take walks. Though, I’m not sure how Maybin is a better athlete. Hicks was 95 off the mound in high school, has a plus plus arm in center, plus speed and was a fantastic young golfer (say what you will – but the sport takes very similar athletic skills (read: quick twitch) as baseball).
As for power, I’ve never felt Maybin’s power would translate (remember how highly it was graded by experts) because it was the product over an over zealous swing on a terrible plane (that’s being kind, I think). Hicks’s swings on the other hand are not nearly as damaging to his future. Let us not forget reasons why his develop should be expected to be slower.
1) Mutlisport athlete until the age of 18 (Golf, Baseball)
2) The time he spent with baseball growing up was split between the mound and OF from until 18.
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Am I missing something
Or is an above-average offensive player who offers value on the basepaths and plus defense in center field not a good outcome?
by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
You're not
missing anything. Admittedly, “above-average” is a fairly nebulous modifier…
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm confused now...
Why was that to me? I’m quite high on Hicks.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
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Twitter:@JDSussman
Because I’m too stupid to use the reply function correctly.
by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
He's not an above-average offensive player though.
He is a bad contact hitter and has shown very weak in-game power thus far. Assuming that both come around would be very hasty.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It's because you are completely overlooking two major flaws in his hitting profile
and just assuming that they will magically fix themselves, hence the use of “above-average offensive player”. Well, not just you. It’s most of the prospect community, as evident by his top 25 ranking.
And who knows? Maybe he turns his tools into skills. But ignoring these two considerable flaws is quite careless.
The track record of guys with major contact issues in the Minors is considerably poor. The track record of guys with major contact issues and a lack of in-game power is horrifically poor.
Here’s evidence, not wishful thinking:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html
And btw, Hicks is much more likely to solve his power issues than his contact. Even then, I highly doubt he doesn’t bust.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
To clarify… I was talking about Maybin, whose offense is probably more accurately described at the top end of average rather than above-average. My questions was why getting Cameron Maybin as an outcome would be a terrible result.
by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I was being pretty generous with the Maybin comp.
Maybin’s OPS was an astounding 137 points higher in the FSL and EL (AA) while being a year and a half younger. He also showed considerable more power while being a year and a half younger (207 IsoP vs. 142 IsoP).
Maybin’s career OPS in the Majors at 24 is .717. Yes, he’s young. But he has still struggled mightily and I can assure you that he has been a huge disappointment for all the people who were touting him as being a plus defender in CF who would bat .300 and go 30/30. Yes, people were saying that.
Again, at some point you have to show that you’re able to hit a baseball. There’s more to hitting than the ability to take 4 balls.
It’s fun to see a guy like Destin Hood put up the same exact numbers at the same age and same level with excellent tools and (the 2 sport excuse) each year as Aaron Hicks.
Yet 1 guy is consistently in the top 25 while the other is left off of the top 100 entirely. Interesting, eh?
Group think FTW!
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Austin Jackson is another fun example, albeit a more extreme one of Hicks.
He showed poor contact skills, poor power, and poor plate discipline in the Minors. Yet I saw him in many top 50s as people proclaimed that these flaws would magically correct themselves!
They never did.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybin’s major red flag to me was the fact that he didn’t make good contact even when he didn’t strike out. Lots of ground balls and lots of strikeouts is not a recipe for success. Hicks is a flyball-neutral hitter with a much more advanced feel for the strike zone than Maybin, who could certainly take a walk, but swung at a lot more terrible pitches.
Hicks makes extremely solid contact too. Of all FSL players 22 and younger, Hicks has the second-most XBH behind Jarek Cunningham. The FSL is a tough place to hit, Hicks is still one of the twenty youngest position players in the league, he’s got the best plate eye and some of the best in-game power, let alone raw power, in the league. He’s a good prospect.
Solid points, esp. the groundball part with Maybin. I forgot about that.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
He is was a terrible hitter
Trying to pull breaking balls down and away. Hence the ks and the walks.
Yeah, I was definitely aboard the Maybin-is-flawed train before anyone else. Then again, I also thought Andrew Miller was the best pitching prospect in baseball right around the same time.
It might also be worth noting that Maybin, despite maintaining his high GB and K rates, is a 116 wRC+ hitter who has contributed 2.7 WAR of value this year (per Fangraphs). So an even more flawed player (though I suppose you could argue more physically talented) than Hicks can be a productive starting CF in the majors.
Dexter Fowler also says hi.
Remember when he was supposed to be an .850 OPS guy in center. How’s that working out?
by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure who thought Fowler would do that
I certainly wasn’t one of them. I definitely don’t recall Fowler being a multi-year consensus top 25 prospect. I can see why you thought he’d be a relevant comp.
His defense seems risky long term
But from a fantasy perspective, this guy seems like gold. He’s destroying the minors, and it’s clear that Boston has no qualms about playing a crap defensive catcher.
He should get enough games at catcher to qualify in most leagues for the foreseeable future.
Some Princeton Rays
Ryan Brett 3-4 HR
Jake Hager 2-4 2B
Drew Vettleson 0-4
Justin O’Connor 2-4 2K
Josh Sale 2-4 K
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
Free Lobaton!
damn it Vettleson
Get your shit together.
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 9:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
anybody have a recent report on Jake Mcgee from Durham
last I had heard he was pitcher better but still didn’t have the velocity (was around 93-94) but tonight is hitting 97/98 on the fastball. He is a much better pitcher/prospect out of the pen if he can stay around 98
Finished 3-4 , 2 HR , K
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 20, 2011 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Trayvon 1-1
Will he go 4 games in a row with a HR?
TRAYVONNNNNNNNN!!!!
Sorry, I got excited.
He's hitting some absolute bombs
I’m ready to see him in the majors, though Gwynn has been playing really well.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
dodger fan in ABQ who goes to a ton of Isotope games
said today’s Trayvon bomb was the longest homerun he’s seen all year.
nice.
Parker Markel
5IP 4H 2R 2ER 2BB 6K
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
Free Lobaton!
by thedudeofdudes on Jul 19, 2011 10:02 PM EDT reply actions
Pedro
Alvarez 4-4 in AAA Indy. All singles though.
Robbie Grossman 2-4, 2B, BB, K
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 19, 2011 10:24 PM EDT reply actions
Still nice to see out of Alvarez. I’m not overly concerned about power, I think that will be there when the rest of his offensive game comes around.
Agreed
Pedro is showing the Pirates that it is time to get him back at third. Brandon Wood should be very worried.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Wood
Has been good for the last two months. He will fit well as the backup to both Alvarez and Cedeno (assuming he continues to play excellent defense).
For all the shit Wood takes on here, I’ve been happy with the acquisition.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 19, 2011 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wood is an above average bench player
he can play a passable SS and pretty good 3B and has been driving the ball decently lately and (gasp) working a few walks. He’s a definite asset to a major league roster as is, and I wouldn’t mind keeping him on the bench 6 or so games a week this year to see if he can’t make the Jose Bautista leap by next year.
by OctaShields on Jul 20, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
He cannot make a Jose Bautista leap
Bautista is arguably the best player in baseball this season. There is no chance Wood does that.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 20, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Normally, Id agree with you King
. . .; but the mere existence of the phenomenon of Jose Bautista makes it possible for someone to do it again, especially someone with Brandon Wood’s power pedigree.
I’m not saying he will do it, just that we would have said it was impossible for the old Jose Bautista to become this Jose Bautista too.
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."
- Bill Hicks
in this day and age my aunt just might grow balls and become my uncle
I’m not counting on it though
If only I could grow a 2nd ball. :(
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 20, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
A few years ago, people would have said it is impossible for Bautista to do what he has done. Wood’s pedigree and pre-MLB track record all pointed towards future star. Same with Alex Gordon…sometimes players need longer than normal to figure things out.
Does anyone else find it sad
That Wood is now considered to fit well as a backup to Ronny Cedeno?
Grossman
Here’s a guy who deserves more attention. Should easily top 100 runs and 100 walks on the season, plays a passable center field, and still has some untapped power that could turn him into an impact player. Marte/McCutchen/Grossman would be an outfield that could make even Pirates pitching look good.
You're forgetting Tabata/Presley
They aren’t slouches…….
Fwiw, you’re right about Grossman. He will contribute….
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 19, 2011 11:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, it's tough to make Pirates pitching look good
maybe these guys could help chip a few runs off that ugly 3.40 ERA
by OctaShields on Jul 20, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
And their starters' FIP is 22nd in baseball.
Are any of Pittsburgh’s starters even any good? I guess Karstens has a Doug Fister thing going for him, but is that the type of pitcher you want to count on?
If it wasn’t for good luck and defense, the Pirates staff would be as sad as their names suggest they should be.
Morton and McDonald
have erratic command of good stuff. Correia, Maholm and Karstens are over-achieving with good command of average stuff. It’s truly inspiring. lol
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
yes mick
Not trying to bait the pack of pitt fanboys, but they are going away soon…this run is simply unsustainable.
I've never seen a team this untalented win so many games
I can’t wrap my head around it. This should be one of the worst teams in the league.
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The only player they have above 2 WAR is McCutchen lol
Even my Lastros have more than that (all of two players!)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Don't sell Fister short.
He has an okay fastball, good cutter, good curve, and great command.
He’s a good pitcher, not just a product of Safeco. Expect the strikeouts to go up.
by Reid Brignac on Jul 20, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Grossman spiel
Grossman is getting too much attention at this point. It seems like twice a week there’s a mini-thread here about how people need to pay attention to him. I think attention’s being paid.
The walks are nice, but what else has he got going for him? Runs scored don’t really measure a skill (except to double count the walks). Playing a “passable center field” doesn’t really matter because he’s not a CF, either now or long-term. His approach brings a lot of Ks along with the walks and he has hardly any power. I could see an upside of .250/.350/.400 or something like that, which would be fine, but I don’t see how he’s a potential impact player, and there’s a good chance that he goes back to hitting .250/.340/.350 when he finally reaches AA.
There are two other players in A ball in the Pirates’ system with essentially the same skill set: Evan Chambers and Dan Grovatt. I don’t understand why Grossman is suddenly getting so much more love than those guys. Chambers, in particular, has more power, is arguably a better runner, and is more likely to stick in CF. I can understand liking Grossman slightly better because of age (compared to Grovatt) or performance (compared to Chambers), but really none of these guys is anything special. They’re all tweener types with minimal power who take a ton of walks and a lot of Ks. They’d need to really max out their potential to become starting-caliber ML outfielders.
Let's Rehash our old arguments Epoc!
There are two other players in A ball in the Pirates’ system with essentially the same skill set: Evan Chambers and Dan Grovatt. I don’t understand why Grossman is suddenly getting so much more love than those guys.
Evan Chambers and Dan Grovatt both got substantially lower bonuses (Grossman – $1,000,000; Chambers – $423,900; Grovatt – undisclosed, although he sought 3rd round slot money which is what Chambers got). Granted, part of the difference is a product of both of them being college guys and Grossman being a signability prep, but Grossman was ranked as the 50th best player coming into his draft year, and IIRC neither Grovatt nor Chambers were even close to that. Grossman has a better draft pedigree, which is indicator of perceived talent.
Furthermore, just look at ARL. Grossman has the best ARL. Chambers is close, being only 6 months older, and isn’t repeating the league like Grossman is (that’s high (A+) ball). However, Grossman is a year above Grovatt and is nearly a full year (11 months) younger.
In addition, you can look at body type/athleticisim (which factored into the aforementioned bonuses). Grossman is slightly taller and leaner than Chambers, giving him more projection, especially power projection, and Grovatt is already considered strictly a corner outfielder (although he does play CF when Mel Rojas Jr. is out of action), but Grossman is still considered to be a passable CF (although he almost assuredly won’t play there in Pittsburgh).
Finally, simply look at production. While Chamber’s BABIP has been low and Grossman’s is probably high, it’s doubtful the gap is enough to close a .54 wOBA gap (.393 to .339). Chambers has a higher ISO, but Grossman’s .128 ISO is acceptable for a developing 21 year old. Plus, Grossman has significantly cut down on his K’s, down to 18% from 21% last year and 30% the year before. His walk rate has also spiked ~7%. Chambers on the other hand, has seen his walks lower and his K rate rise to 24.0% this year. Grovatt is older, playing at a lower level, and also has a lower wOBA and ISO than Grossman.
They’re all tweener types with minimal power who take a ton of walks and a lot of Ks. They’d need to really max out their potential to become starting-caliber ML outfielders.
This is true, and I’m not saying he’s going to be a superstar, but Grossman has the best shot out of any of these three guys, with Chambers being second, and Grovatt a distant third. Grossman is on pace for 10+ homeruns this year at age 21 in A+ ball. There’s no reason to think he can’t put up a .270 average with a .380 OBP and 15 HR’s in the big leagues while playing plus defense at a corner. That goes along with speed on the basepaths, probably 20-25 SB speed, and that seems to me (maybe I’m way off here) like an above-average cOF.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 20, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t have any major quibbles against your argument for Grossman over Chambers and Grovatt. My point in comparing the three was just to illustrate how much closer Grossman is to guys like that then to guys who could be called “potential impact player.”
Maybe it’s just semantics, but I think there are a lot of reasons to think Grossman won’t be as good as you described in your last paragraph. The main one is that it’s like a 95th percentile outcome for the guy. I admit it’s possible, but it’s very unlikely. And again, if you’re going to talk purely about ceiling, why not get equally excited about Grovatt or Chambers (or any one of a couple dozen other guys) who all, theoretically, could be that good?
The difference is scouting.
Grossman’s got a body and swing that makes scouts think power is on the way. With power, he would be a very good player. If it doesn’t develop, then yeah, what you’re saying above is reasonable. At this point, I don’t think it makes sense to say, “he’s 21, and scouts think the power will come, but I think he’s done developing. Tweener.”
Swing
I don’t know about his swing making people think more power is on the way, it’s not really geared to that at all IMO.
+1
I’m curious about who thinks his body projects for more power, either. He’s listed at 6’1" 190 already and his frame is pretty slender.
But I also don’t think labeling him a tweener is the same as saying he’s done developing. I don’t quibble with MCTruth’s claim that Grossman could hit 15 HR a year if he reaches his upside, and my proposed upside slash-line (.250/.350/.400) includes slightly above-average power. But with contact issues that will keep his average down, he’s going to need plus power to be an impact player at a corner, and I don’t think anyone’s claiming he could hit for plus power eventually.
Well...
The Good: Where his tools and athleticism are concerned, Grossman has plenty of upside. His compact frame offers plus power from both sides of the plate, he’s a plus runner, and he has good range in center field and plenty of throwing ability
[…]
Perfect World Projection: He could have a dangerous combination power and speed.
Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.
I don’t want to go digging too deep through old scouting reports, but it’s not difficult to find evidence of evaluators who think Grossman will hit for power.
present tense?
The most recent of the two reports you cite is 19 months old. The other is two and a half years old. I know people thought he was a potential five-tool player when he was drafted, but that stuff isn’t relevant anymore.
The big question about Grossman: can he realize his five tool potential, which includes hitting for power? I asked Kyle Stark about this.
"I think it depends on what you are talking about from power", Stark said. "Are you talking about the chance to hit some extra base hits and maybe have some average power? Then yeah, I think that is the case where that could happen. As far as having impact type power, above average type power, I don’t know if that’s ever going to be the case. But there is the ability for him to hit the balls to the gap and hit a few over the walls."
That’s from an article posted on PiratesProspects.com from spring training of this year. Kyle Stark is Director of Player Development for the Pirates.
I didn't know power potential went away.
There isn’t much recent scouting info on Grossman because this is the first year he’s lived up to his initial billing, and he wasn’t making it onto prospect lists. The way to trump them would be to show us professional reports that project him as a singles hitter.
see above
You don’t buy the Pirates’ own player development personnel saying he doesn’t project for above-average power?
Lol, that is a good one
I do hope that was sarcasm.
yep, you missed the part where I read
“doesn’t” for “does”. ;)
Okay, I can see that I'm probably coming off too optimistic here.
I do think from what I’ve read and seen that Grossman has untapped power potential that it didn’t look like you were giving him credit for above. I’m surprised to see the org downplaying the possibility of above-average power (though I’ll also never take an org guy’s comments without a grain of salt) but Grossman is a guy who’s finally showing some results with his tools, and at 21 I think it’s foolish to think he has stopped learning how to use those tools, even ones that are currently less evident.
I certainly don’t think Grossman will develop into a power hitter. I think there’s a chance he could be a .150 IsoP guy in his prime with a high OBP and good speed and defense in an outfield corner, which would be a similar value to what you can expect from Tabata.
Chris Davis HR
3/4 so far.
Likelihood of him being traded for bullpen help?
by John Black on Jul 19, 2011 10:26 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Baffling...
Still can’t figure out why he doesn’t even come close enough to those numbers in the majors. However, the Pirates could use some power and it is possible they could trade a prospect/bullpen players to help in the pennant race. Pirates need runs and power,especially against the Brewers and all their bats.
by rblythepittsteel on Jul 20, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Oscar Tejeda
2/4, 2B. Not a great stat line but scouts love his tools.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 10:41 PM EDT reply actions
He's actually
been slowly pulling it together of late. The overall line doesn’t look great but he still has time to prove last year’s High-A performance wasn’t a mirage. Getting the average up to .260 is a moral victory.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Hak Ju Lee
2-5 2K
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
Free Lobaton!
by thedudeofdudes on Jul 19, 2011 10:47 PM EDT reply actions
Another guy getting Ray'd
Tyler Bortnick (24) 0-2 2 bb 2 r 2 SB, now has 30 SB on the year. He is on pace not to reach AAA till he is 26 and the majors at the earlier at 27. Not saying this kid is going to be great and most likely won’t be a regular in the majors but I’d imagine he would be at least in AA if not AAA in nearly every other organization.
cecchini
4/5, 2b, rbi, sb(11)
im going off of pure memory here, but i dont recall hearing anything about cecchini being much of a basestealer, so im surprised to see 11 sb already for him. it i snice to see him running good after the knee injury though. hopefully he isnt too far off from a promotion
actually he has, last game or two...
but yea odd stat for him right now, supposed to be just avg speed
What is this referring to?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 20, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Reid Brignac
The poster’s name is Reid Brignac, who was Caught Stealing in the game last night
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
by Jgaztambide on Jul 20, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Ah
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 20, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Cecchini = awesome
Probably won’t be a burner at higher levels, but now that he’s finally gotten over his BABIP issues he’s looking like an absolute stud prospect. A good defensive 3B with great plate discipline and 50% of his hits going for extra bases in the NY-P? Yes please.
It’s a real shame he was “blocked” in full-season ball this year. I think he could have more than handled a Sally league assignment.
Brandon Allen
Not a prospect but he hit another HR today. Anyone see him becoming a 30 HR MLB performer?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 11:38 PM EDT reply actions
he's no jarrod parker
thats for sure
"Some field has fences, and sometime, the field cant hold a player, but most of the time, a field cant hold Domingo"
http://www.domingobeisbol.com/
I think he'll hit if given the chance.
30 HR? Maybe I could see that in AZ, but 25 seems more reasonable. A Joyce-esque .250/.350/.480 line seems right to me.
It should be interesting to see if they actually commit playing time to him
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He may at his peak...
I watched him a bunch here in Birmingham with the Barons in 09… (on the team with Chris Young)
and he showed glimpses of being a stud. I feel like he’s riding that fine line between major league regular and AAAA. If he becomes a MLB regular, I bet he could get close.
a couple
Matt Szczur, 2-5 with an inside the park HR
Paul Hoilman with his 7th HR in his first 99 professional ABs
Szczur
5 straight multi hit games.
What’s his ceiling?
by BryceHarper on Jul 19, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It's 5 in a row!? Dang I was at 4.
Love this guy. Oh and the HR was inside the park. Showing the wheels.
Tim Wheeler
HR #28, and his 6th in the past 7 days. Though he also struck out 4 times.
Actually every hitter 1-7 in the Drillers lineup hit a HR tonight, including Wilin Rosario’s 16th of the year and Hector Gomez’s 11th…both of whom have been coming on very strong of late. If Gomez could ever stay healthy, I think he could make some noise, as he is still just 23 and plays excellent D at SS.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Jul 20, 2011 1:16 AM EDT reply actions
He's on another tear.
The strikeouts continue to concern.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions
who ya take Travon or Tim???
I think I’ll take Timmy
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 20, 2011 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd take Trayvon
Similar K rate, without the platoon split.
Felix Sterling
5IP 3H 3R 1ER 3BB 9K. 31:8 K:BB in 26.1 IP on the year.
Victor Payano
on a run of iffy starts. 4IP 7H 2R 2ER 3BB 2K and 1 HRA.
Reliever round-up
Brad Boxberger 1.2IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K.
Brad Brach 2IP 2H 0R 2BB 1K.
Dan Cortes 2.2IP 4H 0R 2BB 5K.
Fautino De Los Santos 1.2IP 0H 0R 1BB 2K for the big club.
Kelvin Herrera 2IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K.
Greg Infante 1IP 2H 1R 1ER 0BB 1K.
Almost MISSED It !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Liam Hendriks AAA International League debut was tonight…..
6.2 IP – 6 H – 0 BB – 3 K’s – 2 ER (wins against Durham’s Sonnanstine)
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 20, 2011 4:39 AM EDT reply actions
James Darnell
4-5 2BB
324/413/650 in 10 Triple-A games
Also in that contest, non-prospect Matt Clark had a nice week: 4-6 2B, 2HR 8 RBI
Thought it was odd
that none of the TEX fans mentioned him. Competent prospect fatigue?
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I think they only take note of guys under the legal drinking age any more…
by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Can't really blame 'em I suppose
It would be like blaming SD fans for only following guys with great bats and positional questions.
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Stephen Lombardozzi
1 for 4 with 3 walks. Not a huge day, but he more than doubled his Triple-A walk total. The walk rate is one of the few flags with Lombo, who’s interesting in a Cozart-esque way: solid MIF defender, sound hitting approach, a little pop, tough to whiff, fringy walk rates. WAS fans would know better, but is there a chance that Desmond gets dumped with Espi moving to SS and Lombo taking the 2B job?

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