Taking a Look at Midseason Prospect Rankings

by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 1:58 PM EDT

This post originally appeared at Steal of Home.

I did something similar to this with Preseason Prospect Rankings. This time around, I only have Keith Law (Insider), Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Subscriber) and Bullpen Banter. However, there is some difficulty in comparing the lists, as they all have different criteria, so I won't make graphs or do the Likes/Dislikes as I did previously. Also, Bullpen Banter is the only full Top 100 list. Each of the other three lists 50. Since BB's is the only list that contains 2011 draftees, I deleted those 18 players and re-ranked the rest of the 82 eligible players, keeping only the top 50.

List Criteria:

Keith Law (KL, ESPN): This list doesn't include players who've graduated to the majors, who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven't signed yet.

Baseball America (BA): Prospects have to have not used up their rookie eligibility or currently be in the big leagues to be eligible. Also, 2011 draftees are not yet eligible.

Kevin Goldstein (BP): The latest top 50 is restricted to players still in the minors.

Bullpen Banter (BB): If a player has thrown a MLB pitch or had a MLB plate apperance they are disqualified. All players from the 2011 Draft - signed or unsigned - were available to be selected regardless of signing speculation.

Consensus Top 25: Definition: Each time a player appears in a list, he gets a score of 51 minus his rank. These are added for each list and the players are ranked by total points.

Rank	Player	POS	Team
1	Bryce Harper	of	Nationals
2	Matt Moore	lhp	Rays
3	Shelby Miller	rhp	Cardinals
4	Manny Machado	ss	Orioles
5	Brett Lawrie	3b	Blue Jays
5	Jameson Taillon	rhp	Pirates
7	Martin Perez	lhp	Rangers
7	Devin Mesoraco	c	Reds
9	Jurickson Profar	ss	Rangers
10	Jesus Montero	c	Yankees
11	Jacob Turner	rhp	Tigers
12	Carlos Martinez	rhp	Cardinals
13	Manny Banuelos	lhp	Yankees
14	Julio Teheran	rhp	Braves
15	Hak-Ju Lee	ss	Rays
16	Arodys Vizcaino	rhp	Braves
17	Drew Pomeranz	lhp	Indians
18	Travis D'Arnaud	c	Blue Jays
19	Desmond Jennings	of	Rays
20	Taijuan Walker	rhp	Mariners
21	Matt Harvey	rhp	Mets
22	Tyler Skaggs	lhp	Diamondbacks
23	Wil Myers	of	Royals
24	Aaron Hicks	of	Twins
25	Jason Kipnis	2b	Indians

Players in Top 50 of all Lists:

Definition: Only players who appear in every one of the KL, BA, BP and BB lists.

Rank	Player	POS	Team
1	Bryce Harper	of	Nationals
2	Matt Moore	lhp	Rays
3	Shelby Miller	rhp	Cardinals
4	Manny Machado	ss	Orioles
5	Brett Lawrie	3b	Blue Jays
5	Jameson Taillon	rhp	Pirates
7	Martin Perez	lhp	Rangers
7	Devin Mesoraco	c	Reds
9	Jurickson Profar	ss	Rangers
10	Jesus Montero	c	Yankees
11	Jacob Turner	rhp	Tigers
12	Carlos Martinez	rhp	Cardinals
13	Manny Banuelos	lhp	Yankees
15	Hak-Ju Lee	ss	Rays
16	Arodys Vizcaino	rhp	Braves
17	Drew Pomeranz	lhp	Indians
18	Travis D'Arnaud	c	Blue Jays
20	Taijuan Walker	rhp	Mariners
21	Matt Harvey	rhp	Mets
22	Tyler Skaggs	lhp	Diamondbacks
23	Wil Myers	of	Royals
25	Jason Kipnis	2b	Indians
26	Mike Montgomery	lhp	Royals
27	Jarred Cosart	rhp	Phillies
28	Jake Odorizzi	rhp	Royals
29	Zack Wheeler	rhp	Giants
31	Dellin Betances	rhp	Yankees
36	Zach Lee	rhp	Dodgers

New Appearances:

Definition: Players who were not in any single preseason list but that appear at in at least one midseason list.

Rank	Player	POS	Team
20	Taijuan Walker	rhp	Mariners
35	Leonys Martin	of	Rangers
53	Allen Webster	rhp	Dodgers
43	Brad Peacock	rhp	Nationals
47	Cheslor Cuthbert	3b	Royals
52	Gary Brown	of	Giants
54	Will Middlebrooks	3b	Red Sox
59	Jonathan Schoop	3b	Orioles
65	Jose Altuve	2b	Astros
67	Jedd Gyorko	3b	Padres
60	Bryce Brentz	of	Red Sox
62	Henderson Alvarez	rhp	Blue Jays
70	Jake Marisnick	of	Blue Jays
72	Drew Hutchison	rhp	Blue Jays
72	Matt Szczur	of	Cubs
74	Paul Goldschmidt	1b	Diamondbacks

Missing Faces:

Definition: Players who were ranked in the preseason consensus Top 50 but that don't appear in the top 50 of any midseason list. A majority of these will be players who have simply lost their eligibility for these lists.

Player	Team	Pre rank
Domonic Brown	PHI	4
Jeremy Hellickson	TB	5
Eric Hosmer	KC	7
Aroldis Chapman	CIN	8
Dustin Ackley	SEA	10
Mike Moustakas	KC	11
Zach Britton	BAL	16
Michael Pineda	SEA	18
Kyle Drabek	TOR	20
Freddie Freeman	ATL	21
John Lamb	KC	28
Lonnie Chisenhall	CLE	29
Mike Minor	ATL	30
Chris Sale	CHW	31
Tyler Matzek	COL	33
Jose Iglesias	BOS	37
Jordan Lyles	HOU	39
Chris Archer	TB	43

Risers:

Players who have moved the highest up the rankings from the preseason consensus list.

Rank	Player	POS	Team	Difference
42	Robbie Erlin	lhp	Rangers	118
70	Tyrell Jenkins	rhp	Cardinals	96
63	Anthony Gose	cf	Blue Jays	96
12	Carlos Martinez	rhp	Cardinals	94
47	A.J. Cole	rhp	Nationals	78
56	Kaleb Cowart	3b	Angels	75
15	Hak-Ju Lee	ss	Rays	70
21	Matt Harvey	rhp	Mets	68
22	Tyler Skaggs	lhp	Diamondbacks	61
16	Arodys Vizcaino	rhp	Braves	60

Fallers:

Players who have fallen the farthest from the preseason consensus list, but who still appear on a midseason list. Trout and Belt were not eligible for most lists, so they have fallen only for that reason.

Rank	Player	POS	Team	Difference
39	Mike Trout	of	Angels	-38
40	Brandon Belt	1b	Giants	-23
63	Nick Franklin	ss	Mariners	-19
54	Gary Sanchez	c	Yankees	-18
23	Wil Myers	of	Royals	-14
45	Kyle Gibson	rhp	Twins	-10
57	Derek Norris	c	Nationals	-8
33	Jarrod Parker	rhp	Diamondbacks	-8
14	Julio Teheran	rhp	Braves	-8
47	Randall Delgado	rhp	Braves	-7
10	Jesus Montero	c	Yankees	-7

Top 74:

Here is the overall list, ranked in order of total points:

Rank	Player	POS	Team
1	Bryce Harper	of	Nationals
2	Matt Moore	lhp	Rays
3	Shelby Miller	rhp	Cardinals
4	Manny Machado	ss	Orioles
5	Brett Lawrie	3b	Blue Jays
5	Jameson Taillon	rhp	Pirates
7	Devin Mesoraco	c	Reds
7	Martin Perez	lhp	Rangers
9	Jurickson Profar	ss	Rangers
10	Jesus Montero	c	Yankees
11	Jacob Turner	rhp	Tigers
12	Carlos Martinez	rhp	Cardinals
13	Manny Banuelos	lhp	Yankees
14	Julio Teheran	rhp	Braves
15	Hak-Ju Lee	ss	Rays
16	Arodys Vizcaino	rhp	Braves
17	Drew Pomeranz	lhp	Indians
18	Travis D'Arnaud	c	Blue Jays
19	Desmond Jennings	of	Rays
20	Taijuan Walker	rhp	Mariners
21	Matt Harvey	rhp	Mets
22	Tyler Skaggs	lhp	Diamondbacks
23	Wil Myers	of	Royals
24	Aaron Hicks	of	Twins
25	Jason Kipnis	2b	Indians
26	Mike Montgomery	lhp	Royals
27	Jarred Cosart	rhp	Phillies
28	Jake Odorizzi	rhp	Royals
29	Miguel Sano	3b	Twins
29	Zack Wheeler	rhp	Giants
31	Dellin Betances	rhp	Yankees
31	Casey Kelly	rhp	Padres
33	Jarrod Parker	rhp	Diamondbacks
34	Jean Segura	2b	Angels
35	Leonys Martin	of	Rangers
36	Zach Lee	rhp	Dodgers
37	Yasmani Grandal	c	Reds
38	Wilin Rosario	c	Rockies
39	Mike Trout	of	Angels
40	Jonathan Singleton	of/1b	Phillies
40	Brandon Belt	1b	Giants
42	Robbie Erlin	lhp	Rangers
43	Brad Peacock	rhp	Nationals
44	Dee Gordon	ss	Dodgers
45	Brett Jackson	of	Cubs
45	Kyle Gibson	rhp	Twins
47	Cheslor Cuthbert	3b	Royals
47	A.J. Cole	rhp	Nationals
47	Anthony Ranaudo	rhp	Red Sox
47	Randall Delgado	rhp	Braves
51	Oswaldo Arcia	of	Twins
52	Gary Brown	of	Giants
53	Allen Webster	rhp	Dodgers
54	Will Middlebrooks	3b	Red Sox
54	Gary Sanchez	c	Yankees
56	Kaleb Cowart	3b	Angels
57	Nick Castellanos	3b	Tigers
57	Derek Norris	c	Nationals
59	Jonathan Schoop	3b	Orioles
60	Bryce Brentz	of	Red Sox
60	Nolan Arenado	3b	Rockies
62	Henderson Alvarez	rhp	Blue Jays
63	Anthony Gose	cf	Blue Jays
63	Nick Franklin	ss	Mariners
65	Jose Altuve	2b	Astros
65	Christian Yelich	1b	Marlins
67	Jedd Gyorko	3b	Padres
67	Michael Choice	of	Athletics
69	Luis Heredia	rhp	Pirates
70	Jake Marisnick	of	Blue Jays
70	Tyrell Jenkins	rhp	Cardinals
72	Drew Hutchison	rhp	Blue Jays
72	Matt Szczur	of	Cubs
74	Paul Goldschmidt	1b	Diamondbacks

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Comments

great job

great list, hugely helpful and interesting to see (didnt know bullpen banter had released their top 100 so linking to that was great)

only thing, something funky happened with trout i believe and where he ended up

by gobruins12345 on Jul 18, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

Trout, Belt, etc...

They were not eligible for some lists, since they have MLB time. That messed their rankings up.

@stealofhome

by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Rec'd

very nice writeup

by BigG'S on Jul 18, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Risers

I don’t think you included guys that were left off the preseason lists altogether. I was surprised to not see Taijuan Walker for example.. he is probably one of the biggest risers in all the minor leagues.

by guru4u on Jul 18, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

Check the New Appearances

That’s where I put the people who didn’t make any lists. Walker is number 1.

@stealofhome

by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah, missed that

Whoops! Thanks!

by guru4u on Jul 18, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice job...

Great write up. I think Choice and Castellanos will be a lot higher at the beginning of next year’s rankings.

by zeuspower on Jul 18, 2011 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

Castellanos surprised me

I thought he would be much higher, but he wasn’t even on Law’s or BA’s top 50 rankings. He was 75 and 65 for them in the preseason, respectively.

@stealofhome

by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

maybe

BB/K rate? numbers look nice though otherwise.

I drink your milkshake! I drink it up! Well Mr. Plainview, Devin Mesoraco and I drank lots of milkshakes, and we will drink yours too!

by ChalupaCabrera on Jul 18, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Per KLaw

Got terrible reports on Castellanos D

by JayTeam on Jul 19, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Fantastic

Thanks a lot!

by ArbeeEye on Jul 18, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

Top 74 ...

Surprised to see 6 Blue Jays in the top 74 … I wonder how well catchers Mesoraco and d’Arnaud match up ?

by jgadfly on Jul 18, 2011 6:16 PM EDT reply actions

You shouldn't be

TOR has a loaded system.

Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus

by Jeff Reese on Jul 18, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Question was asked of KLaw

Response was Mesoraco has more power and closer to majors

by JayTeam on Jul 19, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

d'Arnaud > Mesoraco

That’s right.

by Reid Brignac on Jul 19, 2011 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Mike Trout should at least be in the top 2!!!

I joke.

by asyouwish33 on Jul 18, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions

where does Myers rank if you exclude Goldstein's brain hemorrhage ?

by daveh33 on Jul 18, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

Hard to say

Because of the way the ranking system works (cumulative points, so simply removing one ranking won’t help) but his average ranking with KG is 28, while his average without is 20. So I would guess somewhere around D’Arnaud/Jennings at 18/19.

@stealofhome

by Chris St. John on Jul 19, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

The Brandon Belt award goes to.......

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT!!!!!

This is the prospect that will be continued to be underrated by evaluators until they look at his numbers at the season and finally give him some love.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions

It was the AFL scouting reports, more than the numbers, that seemed to push Belt's ranking up

by nixa37 on Jul 19, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions

My point is that people should have been higher on Belt before the AFL

Too many evaluators are afraid to change an opinion on a prospect even when new data shows they have changed as a player.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I think everybody agrees that Goldschmidt has the potential to mash at the ML level

it’s just there are some major things holding him back on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention his high K-rate (even though it’s neutralized well in the minors right now by his high BB-rate, it’s dangerous to see that many K’s from a guy whose calling card is his bat, and even the K/BB has been trending down every month, 21:13 in April, 20:23 in May, 18:29 in June, 10:18 in July).

He is not a good fielder now at 1B, he’s too slow and immobile to pass in a corner outfield, so you’re stuck with either a guy who is going to be a below average 1B, or a DH if he gets any worse defensively. That type of a hit really dampers a prospects value, and it’s not something that you can really envision improving for Goldy down the road.

Brandon Belt was not only putting up huge minor league numbers, but he was also much more athletic, left-handed, a better defender at 1B, and had/has the capability to handle a corner OF position decently. I guess you can say they compare in the fact that they are 1B-men who have seen their stock dramatically rise in a year, but I think the comparison kind of stops there

by gore51 on Jul 19, 2011 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Great points

You make some great points. However, I am not so sure that he can’t hang as a corner OF. I don’t put too much stock in minor league defensive reputations as people tend to label guys amazing or terrible at a position.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I mean, it's hard to take one or two first-hand views of a player's defensive abilities to seriously

but when it’s a high number of people, couple with reports the pros/scouts for as far back as I can remember, coupled with a very disappointing look at the Futures game, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he won’t be able to handle a corner OF position adequately. He may be able to suffice there as a well below average defender for a few years (a la Adam Dunn), but to say that he could be anything near average is a stretch in my (and most I’d say probably anybody’s) opinion.

I think his strongest supporters seem to think he can be an average 1B, and his biggest haters say he’s destined to be a DH no matter what. I tend to settle somewhere in the middle, and say that he could probably be a tick below average defender for a while, but with his body type/athleticism/general clunkyness, I can’t imagine him staying as a near average fielder for anything longer than a few years.

by gore51 on Jul 20, 2011 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Goldschmidt might not even be the most underrated Diamondback prospect.

Adam Eaton is the Jose Altuve of outfielders.

by Rox Girl on Jul 19, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think Adam Eaton just came off the Phillies payroll

jk, different adam eaton.

"Six of my best friends just walked into the booth . . .and they're all named Bud" -Harry Caray

by stevejeltz on Jul 20, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

It's great seeing Toronto improve it's prospect pool so much

Going from what the consensus considered one of the worst to one of the best in only 2 years is quite an endeavor for AA and his scouts, and they have done it.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Jul 19, 2011 5:51 PM EDT reply actions