Taking a Look at Midseason Prospect Rankings
This post originally appeared at Steal of Home.
I did something similar to this with Preseason Prospect Rankings. This time around, I only have Keith Law (Insider), Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Subscriber) and Bullpen Banter. However, there is some difficulty in comparing the lists, as they all have different criteria, so I won't make graphs or do the Likes/Dislikes as I did previously. Also, Bullpen Banter is the only full Top 100 list. Each of the other three lists 50. Since BB's is the only list that contains 2011 draftees, I deleted those 18 players and re-ranked the rest of the 82 eligible players, keeping only the top 50.
List Criteria:
Keith Law (KL, ESPN): This list doesn't include players who've graduated to the majors, who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven't signed yet.
Baseball America (BA): Prospects have to have not used up their rookie eligibility or currently be in the big leagues to be eligible. Also, 2011 draftees are not yet eligible.
Kevin Goldstein (BP): The latest top 50 is restricted to players still in the minors.
Bullpen Banter (BB): If a player has thrown a MLB pitch or had a MLB plate apperance they are disqualified. All players from the 2011 Draft - signed or unsigned - were available to be selected regardless of signing speculation.
Consensus Top 25: Definition: Each time a player appears in a list, he gets a score of 51 minus his rank. These are added for each list and the players are ranked by total points.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team |
| 1 | Bryce Harper | of | Nationals |
| 2 | Matt Moore | lhp | Rays |
| 3 | Shelby Miller | rhp | Cardinals |
| 4 | Manny Machado | ss | Orioles |
| 5 | Brett Lawrie | 3b | Blue Jays |
| 5 | Jameson Taillon | rhp | Pirates |
| 7 | Martin Perez | lhp | Rangers |
| 7 | Devin Mesoraco | c | Reds |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | ss | Rangers |
| 10 | Jesus Montero | c | Yankees |
| 11 | Jacob Turner | rhp | Tigers |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | rhp | Cardinals |
| 13 | Manny Banuelos | lhp | Yankees |
| 14 | Julio Teheran | rhp | Braves |
| 15 | Hak-Ju Lee | ss | Rays |
| 16 | Arodys Vizcaino | rhp | Braves |
| 17 | Drew Pomeranz | lhp | Indians |
| 18 | Travis D'Arnaud | c | Blue Jays |
| 19 | Desmond Jennings | of | Rays |
| 20 | Taijuan Walker | rhp | Mariners |
| 21 | Matt Harvey | rhp | Mets |
| 22 | Tyler Skaggs | lhp | Diamondbacks |
| 23 | Wil Myers | of | Royals |
| 24 | Aaron Hicks | of | Twins |
| 25 | Jason Kipnis | 2b | Indians |
Players in Top 50 of all Lists:
Definition: Only players who appear in every one of the KL, BA, BP and BB lists.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team |
| 1 | Bryce Harper | of | Nationals |
| 2 | Matt Moore | lhp | Rays |
| 3 | Shelby Miller | rhp | Cardinals |
| 4 | Manny Machado | ss | Orioles |
| 5 | Brett Lawrie | 3b | Blue Jays |
| 5 | Jameson Taillon | rhp | Pirates |
| 7 | Martin Perez | lhp | Rangers |
| 7 | Devin Mesoraco | c | Reds |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | ss | Rangers |
| 10 | Jesus Montero | c | Yankees |
| 11 | Jacob Turner | rhp | Tigers |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | rhp | Cardinals |
| 13 | Manny Banuelos | lhp | Yankees |
| 15 | Hak-Ju Lee | ss | Rays |
| 16 | Arodys Vizcaino | rhp | Braves |
| 17 | Drew Pomeranz | lhp | Indians |
| 18 | Travis D'Arnaud | c | Blue Jays |
| 20 | Taijuan Walker | rhp | Mariners |
| 21 | Matt Harvey | rhp | Mets |
| 22 | Tyler Skaggs | lhp | Diamondbacks |
| 23 | Wil Myers | of | Royals |
| 25 | Jason Kipnis | 2b | Indians |
| 26 | Mike Montgomery | lhp | Royals |
| 27 | Jarred Cosart | rhp | Phillies |
| 28 | Jake Odorizzi | rhp | Royals |
| 29 | Zack Wheeler | rhp | Giants |
| 31 | Dellin Betances | rhp | Yankees |
| 36 | Zach Lee | rhp | Dodgers |
New Appearances:
Definition: Players who were not in any single preseason list but that appear at in at least one midseason list.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team |
| 20 | Taijuan Walker | rhp | Mariners |
| 35 | Leonys Martin | of | Rangers |
| 53 | Allen Webster | rhp | Dodgers |
| 43 | Brad Peacock | rhp | Nationals |
| 47 | Cheslor Cuthbert | 3b | Royals |
| 52 | Gary Brown | of | Giants |
| 54 | Will Middlebrooks | 3b | Red Sox |
| 59 | Jonathan Schoop | 3b | Orioles |
| 65 | Jose Altuve | 2b | Astros |
| 67 | Jedd Gyorko | 3b | Padres |
| 60 | Bryce Brentz | of | Red Sox |
| 62 | Henderson Alvarez | rhp | Blue Jays |
| 70 | Jake Marisnick | of | Blue Jays |
| 72 | Drew Hutchison | rhp | Blue Jays |
| 72 | Matt Szczur | of | Cubs |
| 74 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1b | Diamondbacks |
Missing Faces:
Definition: Players who were ranked in the preseason consensus Top 50 but that don't appear in the top 50 of any midseason list. A majority of these will be players who have simply lost their eligibility for these lists.
| Player | Team | Pre rank |
| Domonic Brown | PHI | 4 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | TB | 5 |
| Eric Hosmer | KC | 7 |
| Aroldis Chapman | CIN | 8 |
| Dustin Ackley | SEA | 10 |
| Mike Moustakas | KC | 11 |
| Zach Britton | BAL | 16 |
| Michael Pineda | SEA | 18 |
| Kyle Drabek | TOR | 20 |
| Freddie Freeman | ATL | 21 |
| John Lamb | KC | 28 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | CLE | 29 |
| Mike Minor | ATL | 30 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 31 |
| Tyler Matzek | COL | 33 |
| Jose Iglesias | BOS | 37 |
| Jordan Lyles | HOU | 39 |
| Chris Archer | TB | 43 |
Risers:
Players who have moved the highest up the rankings from the preseason consensus list.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team | Difference |
| 42 | Robbie Erlin | lhp | Rangers | 118 |
| 70 | Tyrell Jenkins | rhp | Cardinals | 96 |
| 63 | Anthony Gose | cf | Blue Jays | 96 |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | rhp | Cardinals | 94 |
| 47 | A.J. Cole | rhp | Nationals | 78 |
| 56 | Kaleb Cowart | 3b | Angels | 75 |
| 15 | Hak-Ju Lee | ss | Rays | 70 |
| 21 | Matt Harvey | rhp | Mets | 68 |
| 22 | Tyler Skaggs | lhp | Diamondbacks | 61 |
| 16 | Arodys Vizcaino | rhp | Braves | 60 |
Fallers:
Players who have fallen the farthest from the preseason consensus list, but who still appear on a midseason list. Trout and Belt were not eligible for most lists, so they have fallen only for that reason.
| Rank | Player | POS | Team | Difference |
| 39 | Mike Trout | of | Angels | -38 |
| 40 | Brandon Belt | 1b | Giants | -23 |
| 63 | Nick Franklin | ss | Mariners | -19 |
| 54 | Gary Sanchez | c | Yankees | -18 |
| 23 | Wil Myers | of | Royals | -14 |
| 45 | Kyle Gibson | rhp | Twins | -10 |
| 57 | Derek Norris | c | Nationals | -8 |
| 33 | Jarrod Parker | rhp | Diamondbacks | -8 |
| 14 | Julio Teheran | rhp | Braves | -8 |
| 47 | Randall Delgado | rhp | Braves | -7 |
| 10 | Jesus Montero | c | Yankees | -7 |
Top 74:
Here is the overall list, ranked in order of total points:
| Rank | Player | POS | Team |
| 1 | Bryce Harper | of | Nationals |
| 2 | Matt Moore | lhp | Rays |
| 3 | Shelby Miller | rhp | Cardinals |
| 4 | Manny Machado | ss | Orioles |
| 5 | Brett Lawrie | 3b | Blue Jays |
| 5 | Jameson Taillon | rhp | Pirates |
| 7 | Devin Mesoraco | c | Reds |
| 7 | Martin Perez | lhp | Rangers |
| 9 | Jurickson Profar | ss | Rangers |
| 10 | Jesus Montero | c | Yankees |
| 11 | Jacob Turner | rhp | Tigers |
| 12 | Carlos Martinez | rhp | Cardinals |
| 13 | Manny Banuelos | lhp | Yankees |
| 14 | Julio Teheran | rhp | Braves |
| 15 | Hak-Ju Lee | ss | Rays |
| 16 | Arodys Vizcaino | rhp | Braves |
| 17 | Drew Pomeranz | lhp | Indians |
| 18 | Travis D'Arnaud | c | Blue Jays |
| 19 | Desmond Jennings | of | Rays |
| 20 | Taijuan Walker | rhp | Mariners |
| 21 | Matt Harvey | rhp | Mets |
| 22 | Tyler Skaggs | lhp | Diamondbacks |
| 23 | Wil Myers | of | Royals |
| 24 | Aaron Hicks | of | Twins |
| 25 | Jason Kipnis | 2b | Indians |
| 26 | Mike Montgomery | lhp | Royals |
| 27 | Jarred Cosart | rhp | Phillies |
| 28 | Jake Odorizzi | rhp | Royals |
| 29 | Miguel Sano | 3b | Twins |
| 29 | Zack Wheeler | rhp | Giants |
| 31 | Dellin Betances | rhp | Yankees |
| 31 | Casey Kelly | rhp | Padres |
| 33 | Jarrod Parker | rhp | Diamondbacks |
| 34 | Jean Segura | 2b | Angels |
| 35 | Leonys Martin | of | Rangers |
| 36 | Zach Lee | rhp | Dodgers |
| 37 | Yasmani Grandal | c | Reds |
| 38 | Wilin Rosario | c | Rockies |
| 39 | Mike Trout | of | Angels |
| 40 | Jonathan Singleton | of/1b | Phillies |
| 40 | Brandon Belt | 1b | Giants |
| 42 | Robbie Erlin | lhp | Rangers |
| 43 | Brad Peacock | rhp | Nationals |
| 44 | Dee Gordon | ss | Dodgers |
| 45 | Brett Jackson | of | Cubs |
| 45 | Kyle Gibson | rhp | Twins |
| 47 | Cheslor Cuthbert | 3b | Royals |
| 47 | A.J. Cole | rhp | Nationals |
| 47 | Anthony Ranaudo | rhp | Red Sox |
| 47 | Randall Delgado | rhp | Braves |
| 51 | Oswaldo Arcia | of | Twins |
| 52 | Gary Brown | of | Giants |
| 53 | Allen Webster | rhp | Dodgers |
| 54 | Will Middlebrooks | 3b | Red Sox |
| 54 | Gary Sanchez | c | Yankees |
| 56 | Kaleb Cowart | 3b | Angels |
| 57 | Nick Castellanos | 3b | Tigers |
| 57 | Derek Norris | c | Nationals |
| 59 | Jonathan Schoop | 3b | Orioles |
| 60 | Bryce Brentz | of | Red Sox |
| 60 | Nolan Arenado | 3b | Rockies |
| 62 | Henderson Alvarez | rhp | Blue Jays |
| 63 | Anthony Gose | cf | Blue Jays |
| 63 | Nick Franklin | ss | Mariners |
| 65 | Jose Altuve | 2b | Astros |
| 65 | Christian Yelich | 1b | Marlins |
| 67 | Jedd Gyorko | 3b | Padres |
| 67 | Michael Choice | of | Athletics |
| 69 | Luis Heredia | rhp | Pirates |
| 70 | Jake Marisnick | of | Blue Jays |
| 70 | Tyrell Jenkins | rhp | Cardinals |
| 72 | Drew Hutchison | rhp | Blue Jays |
| 72 | Matt Szczur | of | Cubs |
| 74 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1b | Diamondbacks |
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Comments
great job
great list, hugely helpful and interesting to see (didnt know bullpen banter had released their top 100 so linking to that was great)
only thing, something funky happened with trout i believe and where he ended up
Trout, Belt, etc...
They were not eligible for some lists, since they have MLB time. That messed their rankings up.
by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Risers
I don’t think you included guys that were left off the preseason lists altogether. I was surprised to not see Taijuan Walker for example.. he is probably one of the biggest risers in all the minor leagues.
Check the New Appearances
That’s where I put the people who didn’t make any lists. Walker is number 1.
by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice job...
Great write up. I think Choice and Castellanos will be a lot higher at the beginning of next year’s rankings.
Castellanos surprised me
I thought he would be much higher, but he wasn’t even on Law’s or BA’s top 50 rankings. He was 75 and 65 for them in the preseason, respectively.
by Chris St. John on Jul 18, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe
BB/K rate? numbers look nice though otherwise.
I drink your milkshake! I drink it up! Well Mr. Plainview, Devin Mesoraco and I drank lots of milkshakes, and we will drink yours too!
by ChalupaCabrera on Jul 18, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 74 ...
Surprised to see 6 Blue Jays in the top 74 … I wonder how well catchers Mesoraco and d’Arnaud match up ?
You shouldn't be
TOR has a loaded system.
Bullpen Banter
MLB Bonus Baby
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
by Jeff Reese on Jul 18, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Question was asked of KLaw
Response was Mesoraco has more power and closer to majors
Hard to say
Because of the way the ranking system works (cumulative points, so simply removing one ranking won’t help) but his average ranking with KG is 28, while his average without is 20. So I would guess somewhere around D’Arnaud/Jennings at 18/19.
by Chris St. John on Jul 19, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The Brandon Belt award goes to.......
PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT!!!!!
This is the prospect that will be continued to be underrated by evaluators until they look at his numbers at the season and finally give him some love.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions
My point is that people should have been higher on Belt before the AFL
Too many evaluators are afraid to change an opinion on a prospect even when new data shows they have changed as a player.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think everybody agrees that Goldschmidt has the potential to mash at the ML level
it’s just there are some major things holding him back on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention his high K-rate (even though it’s neutralized well in the minors right now by his high BB-rate, it’s dangerous to see that many K’s from a guy whose calling card is his bat, and even the K/BB has been trending down every month, 21:13 in April, 20:23 in May, 18:29 in June, 10:18 in July).
He is not a good fielder now at 1B, he’s too slow and immobile to pass in a corner outfield, so you’re stuck with either a guy who is going to be a below average 1B, or a DH if he gets any worse defensively. That type of a hit really dampers a prospects value, and it’s not something that you can really envision improving for Goldy down the road.
Brandon Belt was not only putting up huge minor league numbers, but he was also much more athletic, left-handed, a better defender at 1B, and had/has the capability to handle a corner OF position decently. I guess you can say they compare in the fact that they are 1B-men who have seen their stock dramatically rise in a year, but I think the comparison kind of stops there
Great points
You make some great points. However, I am not so sure that he can’t hang as a corner OF. I don’t put too much stock in minor league defensive reputations as people tend to label guys amazing or terrible at a position.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I mean, it's hard to take one or two first-hand views of a player's defensive abilities to seriously
but when it’s a high number of people, couple with reports the pros/scouts for as far back as I can remember, coupled with a very disappointing look at the Futures game, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he won’t be able to handle a corner OF position adequately. He may be able to suffice there as a well below average defender for a few years (a la Adam Dunn), but to say that he could be anything near average is a stretch in my (and most I’d say probably anybody’s) opinion.
I think his strongest supporters seem to think he can be an average 1B, and his biggest haters say he’s destined to be a DH no matter what. I tend to settle somewhere in the middle, and say that he could probably be a tick below average defender for a while, but with his body type/athleticism/general clunkyness, I can’t imagine him staying as a near average fielder for anything longer than a few years.
Goldschmidt might not even be the most underrated Diamondback prospect.
Adam Eaton is the Jose Altuve of outfielders.
by Rox Girl on Jul 19, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Adam Eaton just came off the Phillies payroll
jk, different adam eaton.
"Six of my best friends just walked into the booth . . .and they're all named Bud" -Harry Caray
It's great seeing Toronto improve it's prospect pool so much
Going from what the consensus considered one of the worst to one of the best in only 2 years is quite an endeavor for AA and his scouts, and they have done it.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
So awesome to see Moore become the top ranked pitching prospect
and may see him sooner than we thought, his next start will be in AAA. If the Rays make a surge, you will see him pitching in the bigs in September.
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