Calling All Pirates Fans: What is Wrong with Pedro Alvarez?

seems like the perfect summeration

First in foremost, what everyone and their mother wants to hear about… Pedro. You guys can see the box score, 0-4 with three whiffs, a pop up to third and a walk. Ever since Pedro started struggling to begin his rehab I’ve always been one of optimist on this board saying he’s going to get it together and be up with the big club soon. After tonight, after seeing him in person, this is the first time the grim reality is starting to set in for me: Pedro Alvarez is nowhere close to ready to be in the majors. After seeing him live tonight from behind home plate, I saw a shadow of the man that I watched eat up big league pitching last September. He looked lost at the plate, his bat was slow, as reports had suggested he had gotten a little bigger and pitch selection was murky. His first two strike outs came on big time whiffs and he was caught looking on his last one with a pitch he should of swung at. I know it’s quick to say after one game, but this is one game live after reading a handful of unpromising box scores. To me, it simply affirmed everything I had been hearing. What became most depressing for me is that by the time he got to his final at bat, I was going to consider it win if he simply didn’t strike out. I would of taken a decently hit fly ball, but he was caught frozen.

He looked fine last year after a slow start when he was called up in June. Something really strange happened this year, though. It really looked like pitchers were attacking him with fastballs in the strike zone early in counts. No matter who the pitcher was or where it was located it seemed like it was an automatic 0-1 if you threw him a first pitch fastball. There was no chance he’d swing. Once the pitcher was ahead the AB was pretty much over. If it got to two strikes there was about a 60% chance he’d strike out. A lot of chased breaking balls for the third strike, but you would be stunned at how many times he just swung through an 88 MPH fastball over the middle of the plate. It was like he just had no idea what might be coming and reacted too late.

Is usually the best pitch to hit. He gets a fastball between the belt and knees. He never swings, goes down 0-1, and usually misses the swing at the second pitch (breaking ball).

It seems as if he always goes down 0-2, and from there, it’s hard to hit for power. In addition, he really has trouble hitting lefties and breaking balls. If he works hard in at his plate discipline/ hitting lefties, he could bounce back. But I see him in AAA until at least September.

Back here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/4/29/1450957/pedro-alvarez-has-the-time-for

It was right after I had traded Alvarez for Chase Headley (and Franklin Morales) in my DMB league and was trying to sort through why I thought Alvarez might be a disappointment. Lots of good, opinionated, empirically-sound arguments on both sides . . .

…is too long. The swing, which looks pretty, causes him trouble on two related pitches: High fastballs and low and away fastballs. The two are related because Alvarez stands too far away from the plate. He does so, I’d imagine, in order to make contact on the inside pitches. But, because he’s too far from the plate, he has trouble seeking and making contact with low pitches on the outside corner.

Alvarez needs to shorten his swing. This is correctable.

He may have also lost bat speed due to bulking up (with muscle) over the winter. This is correctable.

I’d not claim Alvarez lacks plate discipline. He actually tries to swing only at pitches he can handle, at hitter’s pitches, not pitcher’s pitches. But, because he now has a rep, pitchers know that they can jam him or paint the coroner and Alvarez will miss the ball or take the pitch for a strike. So, he often found himself in 1- and 0-2 counts because of his attempts to control the strike zone. He’d then have to hit with two strikes without a stroke that helped him much to hit with two strikes.

The Pirates want him to work on hitting to left-center field. That’s a start. I haven’t seen his swing since he returned from his injuries. So, I can’t say that he’s worked on shortening his stroke. But, I’d say that shortening his stroke is something they talked about with him.

Anytime a player stumbles badly, it’s a cause for concern. But, before coming to Pittsburgh, Alvarez killed minor league pitching after he adjusted to the leagues he was in. So, one must take his slumps with a grain of salt. My hope is that he and the Pirates take this time to work on his stroke. He has more than enough power to hit home runs to any part of the field he can hit a fly ball.

My $.02.

By the way, I would still like to hear your thoughts John. Do you still plan to publish a piece on Alvarez? Have you heard anything from scouts that may have seen him on his rehab stint?

I’ve been a huge Pirate/Pedro follower for most of my college career. I’ve been through it all and am still dedicated to the Buccos. I played Division I baseball at Duquesne University and have begun coachin AAU travel baseball. From wathcing live in Pittsburgh and on TV, I have been puzzled as to why Alvarez is struggling. Where he left off last year with hitting home runs and knocking in RBI’s, you have to ask yourself what really happened. If I had to make a few observations, I would say look at his college swing, look at his swing last year and look at it now. It’s very noticeable that Alvarez’s current stance is very upright, where his past stance was somewhat low with the knees bent. That is the biggest thing I have noticed that maybe critical to his low success rate which maybe the new coaches in Clint Hurdle or Gregg Ritchie have adjusted him. I know under John Russell and Don Long, they did not want to mess with Alvarez at all.

The last thing that is very scary for me to comment on is maybe the league has figured out Pedro Alvarez as Neal Huntington has said before. Huntington then says Alvarez needs to adjust to the league. It may be tough for Alvarez to adjust after being a very friendly pull hitter (most of his homeruns go to right and right center). Even in his college videos he has a long swing and hits mostly to right. Alvarez came in as a prospect being tabbed to hit to all fields, but I haven’t seen it and my guess is so does the rest of the league and I just hope Alvarez can pick it back up and become the hitter he was in the second half last season.

Any suggestions?

He needs to get the strike outs under control. If he can get it down to the 25%/PA range, I think he can be a well above average hitting 3B.

The problem is that people need explanations for what happens in small sample sizes.

Throw aside your ideas about what you have seen or think you have seen. He strikes out at he same rate as last year. He walks at the same rate. He hits slightly more ground balls, slightly fewer flyballs (about 4% difference each from last year). He is hitting fewer home runs, but he has hit just 28 total fly balls, 2 of which were homers; if he were homering at last year’s pace, he would have 5. He’s popping up at the same rate. He’s swinging at balls out of zone just a little less, and at balls in zone just a little more. He swings and misses at the exact same rate. All the differences are so small that they’re basically meaningless. There are other stats you can look at, but those are even more prone to fluctuations in small samples than the ones I’ve just cited.

I think the basic story is that nothing important has changed in him since last year, but random fluctuations have resulted in worse outcomes. People hate the idea that random fluctuations are what’s making the difference, but it makes a lot of sense. How many pop ups would be home runs if the pitch had been one centimeter lower? How many broken bat outs would be hits if the pitch had been 1 centimeter closer to the hitter? Etc. etc.

If the Pirates were being smart, they’d call him back up and stick him in a platoon with Wood for the rest of the season.

Hurdle provides his $.02 on Pedro.

He’s currently hitting well, striking out less, going to the opposite field, etc. His swing still looks a bit too long. But he’s working on the adjustments he needs to make in order to compensate for his long swing.

The Pirates are doing the right thing with Alvarez.

Prognosis: Pedro will be fine over the long-term.