Prospect of the Day: Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

by John Sickels on Jul 12, 2011 8:00 AM EDT

U.S. Futures All-Star Matt Moore of the Tampa Bay Rays (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Prospect of the Day: Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay left-hander Matthew Moore turned heads in the 2011 MLB Futures Game Sunday night, posting an impressive inning of work against the World Team, showing a 98 MPH moving fastball that put scouts in a state of ecstatic communion with the baseball gods. I had Moore as a Grade A prospect pre-season, and the Number Four pitching prospect in baseball; if anything, his stock has risen. Let's take a look.

Moore was drafted by the Rays in the eighth round in 2007 from high school in Moriarty, New Mexico. He performed well in the Appalachian League in 2007 and 2008 (fanning 106 in just 74 innings of work), then posted a 3.15 ERA with a 176/70 K/BB in just 123 innings for Low-A Bowling Green in '09. In 2010, he fanned 208 in 145 innings for High-A Charlotte, with just 109 hits allowed and a 3.36 ERA, walking 109. He led the minors in strikeouts in both '09 and '10.

Transitioning to Double-A Montgomery in 2011, he's been even more effective: a 2.14 ERA in 97 innings, a 125/26 K/BB, with 61 hits allowed. He's maintained the outstanding K/IP ratio and low hit rate, while lowering his walks, against better competition. Overall in his entire career, Moore has a 2.79 ERA in 439 innings, with 615 strikeouts and just 298 hits allowed, walking 192.

The 6-2, 205 pound Moore isn't doing this with junk pitches: as he showed in the Futures Game, he's got a very live arm. He doesn't normally throw 98 MPH, working more commonly at 90-95, but even at the lower velocity his fastball has considerable movement and can be overpowering. He mixes it with an outstanding breaking ball, and his changeup has developed into an above-average pitch. The combination of the three gives him a complete arsenal. Add greatly improved command over the last year, and you have a truly elite prospect.

Moore has the physical, mental, and statistical attributes of a future number one starter. The main risks at this point are injury or slippage in command. He's been very durable so far in his career and I don't think his injury risk is any higher than the typical 22-year-old..

We'll have to see how the command issue plays out, but pay attention to this little statistical nugget: in his last 155 innings between this year and last, he has a 217/39 K/BB ratio with 94 hits allowed. I'd say his command is coming along just fine.

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Stud

by jaroche6 on Jul 12, 2011 8:14 AM EDT reply actions

when he gets promoted, which current Rays' pitcher gets traded or shifted to the Pen?

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by feslenraster on Jul 12, 2011 8:18 AM EDT reply actions

He won't get promoted till mid 2012 at the earliest.

Alot will happen in the Ray’s rotation by then.

by mr. maniac on Jul 12, 2011 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't rule out a David Price circa 2008 role

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by Jeff Reese on Jul 12, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions

And I wouldn't think the Rays will make the playoffs either.

by mr. maniac on Jul 12, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not

Still a lot of baseball left though and 5 games back isn’t insurmountable.

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by Jeff Reese on Jul 12, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

With the Rays offense though, you really have to wonder.

Plus, the Rays have not shown a history of making moves at the dealine, something they will need to do to keep up.

by mr. maniac on Jul 12, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

debateable

by Rochestie4ever on Jul 12, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

The top candidate

is Jeff Niemann even though Alex Cobb may replace him sooner or later. Some are saying Shields may become to expensive and they may look to trade him. And Wade Davis with his bad year has been thrown around as a candidate too.

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by thedudeofdudes on Jul 12, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Davis certainly has an affordable contract to move

Niemann doesn’t as he’s heading into his arb years. Price is also about to get extremely expensive after next season; a playoff run this season would help bring in some money but that looks unlikely to happen with coolstandings showing an 11% chance at the playoffs. If you watch the offense at home, you can drop one of those 1’s.

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by Jason Collette on Jul 12, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Niemann may get moved, but everything I’ve heard is he takes too long to warm up to be a reliever.

by Cormican on Jul 13, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Will he hit Durham this year?

Also, John – Zack Cozart? :)

by RedHopeful on Jul 12, 2011 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

tomorrow

Tomorrow….I pushed Moore up because fo his performance in the futures game.

by John Sickels on Jul 12, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Rays have the best pitching prospect in baseball... again.

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by OremLK on Jul 12, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

We must hold on to a guy like Shields for this very reason

We can have an incredible front 4, maybe even all 5 if Wade Davis remembers he throws a good fastball.

David Price L
James Shields R
Matt Moore L
Jeremy Hellickson R
Wade Davis R

Davis is still my favorite of the #5 options but there is a lot of potential and I don’t mean Jeff Neimann. Alex Cobb has made his starts look so easy, Torres and Archer would be studs if they can find their command. And another guy that I find underrated is Nick Barnese. Barnese and Moore remind me of Davis and McGee, going to every level together and doing well at every level. Moore has become much better but there’s a sleeper for an incredible 5 man rotation.

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by joeybw on Jul 12, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe if Wade could remember he once had a legit plus curve, not some slider crap he throws now (or a hard changeup).

by mr. maniac on Jul 12, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Regarding Moore, I wonder what the largest sample of a guy’s K/H ratio being greater than 2/1 is? Doing it in 155 IP is damn impressive. Liriano did it in 91 IP in 2005 at AAA. Strasburg and Prior both did it in their 50-odd minor-league innings.

by limozeen on Jul 12, 2011 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

Hanson did it over 204.1 IP in 2008 and 2009

He didn’t have as much wiggle room as Moore does, but he was at 253 strikeouts to just 125 hits over that period.

by nixa37 on Jul 12, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

My jaw dropped

I don’t know as much as a lot of you guys….

But, he passed the “eye test” and then some….

I don’t see how he couldn’t dominate the big leagues right now, whether or not that is the best thing for his development is an entirely different story….

by Sgt. Dingleberry on Jul 12, 2011 10:10 PM EDT reply actions

Sick arm.

by SenorGato on Jul 13, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

What I'm really hoping

is that they don’t make him pitch a full year in Double-A and THEN a full year in Triple A before reaching the majors in 2013. I’m hoping they’ll move him faster due to him being so dominant.

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by The Congo Hammer on Jul 13, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

Going into prospect list

This past fall, I had Moore ranked 2nd on my pitchers list, behind Hellickson. So far, he hasn’t done anything to disappoint, and would be number one for me now. I remember being much higher than most on him during the making of the the pre-2009 prospect list arguing for him to be much higher than he ended up being (back end). It was probably dumb luck and falling in love with his k-rate in the low minors, but I am chalking it up as a win for me :)

by cookiedabookie on Jul 13, 2011 6:56 PM EDT reply actions