June 8th Minor Leagues
by casejud on Jun 8, 2011 11:54 PM EDT
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I know its late, 8:37 Pm where Im at and 11:37 out east but, I thought I'd put up one of these anyways If anybody wants to chat about baseball when they wake up in the middle of the night for a glass of milk, some water, or something stronger.
Here's what some guys I like from around the minors did tonight . . .
Getting sent to the minors sucks. Andrew Oliver (another complete community whiff) has a bright future but he was battered around the yeard tonight 3 IP 10 7 7 0 4, two longballs.
Arkansas Double header vs NW Arkansas : Mike Trout went 2-3 with a run, swiped two bags. Big Garrett Richards tossed a 7-inning, complete game gem in the same game. Trout is 2-4 with a Triple in game two. More impressive because big leaguers started both ends of the twin-bill - Bruce Chen in Game 1, and Kyle Davies in the nightcap.
More below . . .
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Chun-Hsiu Chen
Akron routed New Britain, and Chen went 3/4 with 2 2B and a RBI (along with a K and a SF). Brings his season line up to .292/.335/.487 Considering his awful April line, it’s been an awfully good month and change for him. Still strikes out a bit much, but he’s certainly giving enough offense for the position and showing the concerns about his bat speed and swing plane last season aren’t an issue for AA.
Sweet
. . . usefull table setter. Good to see him finally make it. Yet another conmplete whiff by our prospect evaluating community :)
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
just as long as he can stay healthy...
I really do believe he has Rafael Furcal offensive upside.
by John Black on Jun 9, 2011 12:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What are you talking about?
Weeks was pretty universally liked after the draft. Then he got hurt, again and again and again. Understandably, nobody talked much about him, because he didn’t play. Now he’s had a decent couple of months, and he’s in the majors. I don’t think anybody likes him any less than they always have, the idea is just that he’s probably not going to stay healthy. If he does, I think the consensus is that he’ll be a decent player.
Right
Would be similar to Reese Havens breaking through. Not unexpected, but it would require him to stay healthly.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
This seems accurate
Hard to have any real sort of discussion or opinion about guys who aren’t on the field.
by Jersey Transplant on Jun 9, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I see
I see where you are coming frokm but, If he has the ability to be a big league regular and he played well in the minors in 08, 09, and 2010 – when he was healthy – then I think he should be on somebodys top 100 list.
He wasn’t and that is a whiff to me. The injuries are just the reason for the whiff, not a valid one. The injuries are what caused the error in the ranking.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
I don't buy that
First, Weeks didn’t hit well last year at all. In fact, Weeks hadn’t hit well outside of his Cal League stint in 2009 until this season. So it’s absolutely fair to take the spotty track record of performance and constant injuries(157 games played total in two full seasons as a pro prior to this year) and weigh that against the scouting reports and tools and say he needs to hit at the upper levels and/or stay healthy before he climbs back into top 100 territory.
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Do you think he will become a solid, major league regular?
If you do, then you should be looking for reasons why you didn’t rank highly the past couple years.His numbers look like the same player to me, we just overlooked him. The injuries weren’t serious ones either were they?
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
The reasons are obvious.
If you can’t stay healthy, it hurts your prospect stock. Everybody liked Weeks coming out of college, but he was terrible at AA and couldn’t stay on the field. No one’s surprised that he’s hitting now, but there’s no basis for an argument that he should have been ranked highly.
Wait, what?
His numbers look the same? Weeks posted an aggregate line of ~ .259/.327/.386 in AA between 2009 and 2010(OBP calculation might be off, using just stats I can pull from John’s book to figure it). He’s hitting much better than that this year and more importantly has been healthy. Leg injuries for a player with plus speed are very troublesome, regardless of how serious they were as they can add up and take away his one plus tool.
He did rank in my top 100 coming into last year and he proceed to hit poorly again in AA(I wrote off the 2009 struggles there to small sample size when ranking him for 2010) and missed more time to injuries. Leaving him off my top 100 was absolutely justified because of that. I’m sorry you don’t see it that way, but the flaw seems to lie in the oddball way you feel top 100 lists should be constructed and interpreted and not the other way around.
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
More bad Hombres . . .
Tim Wheeler went deep for his 15th and, is hitting .320. Not bad for the Driller’s leadoff guy!
Jamess Darnell went 3 -4, Doubledm Singled twice, and walked. He’s having an ok season for San Antonio – hitting .376
Leonys Martin came out of the game vs San Antonio after being hit with a pitch. I hope he’s okay.
Jose Altuve singled twice in four at-bats. Hit .408 for Lancaster – now .429 for CC. I can’t quit you Jose Altuve.
Paul “The Jimmy Foxx of the Southern League” Goldschmidt continued his already legendary season. 2 for 3 with a BOMB, a Double, and two walks – no Ks. His 20th Homer.
Beau Mills went deep for Akron – sigh
Matt Harvey 6 -5 -2 -2 -0 -9 Very nice
Anthony Ranaudo 6 -2 -0 -0 -2 -3
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Jose Altuve keeps laughing at AA pitching
2/4, .429
by John Black on Jun 9, 2011 12:13 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hey!
… are you gonna mention ALL the guys I put in my post!?!? Just kidding
Some of those guys, like Altuve, Darnell, and Mr. Goldschmidt are nice they need to be mentioned twice – or even three times.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
haha
Sorry dude, but I think these guys deserve extra attention! And I’m on my phone and haven’t been refreshing to see what you’ve posted, lol.
by John Black on Jun 9, 2011 12:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Cubs
Peoria lost to West Michigan, 10-9, giving up a run in the 9th.
Matt Szczur: 4/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, CS. Season: .345/.402/.462.
Kyung-Min Na: 4/4, 2 R, 2 2B, 1 RBI, PO.
Na was given a fairly big signing bonus a couple years ago despite being an undersized CF. Excellent speed, good defensively (arguably top defensive CF in system. Some positive reports that he was developing some gap power, line drive ability.
Lakeland shut out Daytona, 4-0. Nothing notable.
Tennessee lost to Jackson, 1-0.
Junior Lake: 2/4, 1 K, SB.
Marwin Gonzalez: 2/3, K, HBP.
Gonzalez is a toolsy 22 year old in AA. The approach is decent, there’s some pop in the bat. He doesn’t really have a position to settle on yet, acting more as a minor league super-utility guy. A lot of Cubs fans have had hopes for awhile that he could put it together, but he simply hasn’t .. yet (and the Cubs have given him more than enough AB’s). This year, he has a .318/.370/.438 line, garnering a SL AS nod. He’s still young for the level.
PCL had off.
DSL Cubs 2 lost to DSL Nationals, 9-4.
DSL Cubs 1 beat DSL Twins 4-2.
Rymer Liriano
3-for-3 tonight and has now hit in 16 of 17. He’s a toolsy 20-year-old outfielder who’s pushing his OPS in Ft. Wayne up toward 900, and along with Edinson Rincon and Jonathan Galvez, has the potential to make the Padres’ international signing class of 2007 look pretty good.
Continuation
When they resumed the game after it was suspended last night, he blasted a homer and another single, so he’s at 5-for-5 and over .300 in Ft. Wayne.
by realitypolice on Jun 9, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I was starting to doubt the power,
but he’s so young. Nice to see it coming out in earnest this year.
by blackoutyears on Jun 10, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Fire alert! Ben Revere 3-5 , 2B (SB 5)
continues to destroy big league pitching…. Indians were latest victim… Rangers next …okay slight exaggeration
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!! ~Currently on the DL~
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 9, 2011 6:38 AM EDT reply actions
The Kid
. . . is a real good hitter and yet another complete whuiff by our prospecting community. It was so unanimous that he wasn’t a top prospect that even I started to overlook him. Even though I always thought he could hit, run, and field.
His cumulative ranking on the 9 major top 100 lists was 93rd and he was left off of four of them. I think he’ll be much better than the 93rd best player when we look back 5 or 6 years from now.
The overlooking of his abilities are part of a larger fallacy that is prevelant here – that players who don’t hit for a lot of power are getting lucky with thier battng average. It continues to be not true. Revere has hit .325, .379, .311, .305, .303 in the minor leagues with .082 ISP.
If he hits enough singles, and he hits a lot of them, he’s going to be a pretty pesky and, valuable player.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jun 9, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You mean that the community swung and missed on him by thinking he wouldn't be more than a singles hitter with decent defense and some stolen bases, right?
Because I’m failing to see how that could be anything but a completely accurate evaluation of what he’s been so far in the majors. If you can’t see the flaws in a .302 /.323 /.317 line, then I can’t do anything for you and should stop typi
by PissedMick on Jun 9, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
Agree
Ben Revere exemplfies empty batting average. It really bothered me to see him listed in Goldstein’s ESPN piece of people who were overlooked. He may provide the Twins will value, but he will be closer to replacement level than league average.
The overlooking of his abilities are part of a larger fallacy that is prevelant here – that players who don’t hit for a lot of power are getting lucky with thier battng average.
That really isn’t the issue here. No one denies his ability to hit for average. But, when one can’t get on base, and can’t hit for power his ability to hit for average is hollow. Again, Revere is the perfect example of a .300+ hitter who is also replacement level (as a hitter).
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
by JD Sussman on Jun 9, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Then he'd be slightly better than what JD describes
Pierre’s career line is .296.346/.364 with a career 89 wRC+ and a .322 wOBA.
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Slightly better???
Jaun Pierre isn’t going to the hall of fame or anything but, how the heck is a guy who has played 12 years in the big leagues, and will have over 2000 hits there, “slightly better” than a replacement player.
He would have been REPLACED by now If that were true. That is a comical assertion Gatling. I hope you were just joking around.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
It's not comical
Juan Pierre isn’t a valuable hitter at all, regardless of whether he gets 2000 hits or not. His bat has been worth -60.6 runs for his career. I already posted his career triple slash line, wRC+ and his career wOBA, the numbers back up the fact that he’s been slightly better than replacement level for his career as a hitter(note that in JD’s comment that led to the Pierre question and subsequent discussion, he mentions Revere as a replacement level hitter specifically).
Now, he has been a around a league average player for his career(slightly better than average, but just barely), mainly because of his baserunning and his defense. As for why he hasn’t been replaced…I’d say it’s probably a combination of his high salary, being an Ozzie Guillen type of player and the aforementioned defense and baserunning. Those things don’t change the fact that Pierre isn’t a good hitter.
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Exactly
I think we all have always understood his defensive and running ability to be very good. Do they alone make him a league average player? Maybe, but even so, his upside isn’t much higher than that.
I still don’t see what anyone has missed. If anything, Revere has been one of the most easy to target players in the minors. There are certainly bigger whiffs that come to mind (at least personally) like A.Rizzo.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
The COMPLETE WHIFF
shtick is getting stoopid.
by blackoutyears on Jun 10, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
No.
It teaches humility to the Know-it-all’s here
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
-1
I find that most of the more knowledgeable people here are very aware that prospecting is a haphazard game, and they thus need to remain circumspect.
There are a few people who are awfully strident about things, but they usually either adopt a mellower stance over time, or their interest in the whole topic fades.
Note: Don’t you think your avatar of “better than you” weakens your ability to weigh in on humility?
-1,000
First, I disagree about “losing interest in the topic”. That is the problem. If you act arrogant about a player and write them off for BS reasons(AKA Pablo Sandoval) you deserve a nice plate of crow.
Secondly, my avatar is a joke, as it is a picture of Brian Sabean, whom I find extremely underrated. I don’t think I’m better than anyone, personally.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 11, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't it just be
risdiculous? Isn’t that bad enough? Why does it have to be beyond ridiculous
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Ok
ASsserting that Ben Revere will be a replacement level hitter is one thing but, asserting that Jaun Pierre is another.
If Revere turns out top be a league average player (your words) for a dozen years, that MAKES him a top 100 player – easily.
Jaun Pierre has got on the sacks at a .346 clip for a dozen years. What the hell is so wrong with that? He’s only been a Whuite Sock for 2 years so that doesn’t begin to explain the other 10.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Can't get on base huh?
Ben Revere has a .385 On Base Percentage in the minor leagues, in over 1600 plate appearances. What exactly are you talking about?
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
I see a flaw alright
I see a little flaw in the logic of quoting and evaluating Ben Revere based on a batting line that is formed by 65 plate appearances! Not too mention these (combined with 30 last year) are his FIRST plate appearances! Can you give the kid a few more abs before you start tearing apart his batting line maybe?
If he is a decent singles hitter, who steals some bases, and plays good defense he could very well be MUCH better than a top 100 player – If he’s doing that in the big leagues.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
RE
Am I not using the same sample that you’re using to say we whiffed on him? With that said, I didn’t use him MLB sample to determine he has no power and questionable ability to get on base.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Not exactly
Am I not using the same sample that you’re using to say we whiffed on him?
I said he was a whiff based on his minor league record and that fact that my eyeballs tell me he looks like the next Juan Pierre. I actually think he is BETTER than Jaun Pierre but, for the sake of argument – many, many, many people here have used the Jaun Pierre comp to snipe at Revere.
Jaun Pierre is a lot better player than sub 100th in his last season as a prospect – he’s likely around the 20th best player or maybe better.
Again Revere gets on base a LOT so, I can’t really follow you there but, lets look at a few guys from the BB list and compare . . .
Revere OBP in minors, .385
Dustin Ackley, great on-base machine, .384
Desmond Jennings, future star ladoff man, .384
He only has questionable on-base skills when you don’t give him any credit for his ability to square up baseballs
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
We'll see
A player’s BB% as an indicator that the player will be able to repeat his OBP at the major league level than I am of batting average. Plus, Revere’s lack of power should mean that pitchers are going to challange him more often thus decreasing his MLB BB%. While Jennings and Ackley aren’t huge power threats, they are far from punchless, which is how I would decribe Revere.
If Revere is able to maintain an OBP around .385, he’ll be a very valuable player for the Twins as a league average or a tick beter CF. Though, I don’t think that is where he ultimately settles in.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Do you really want this fight with Casejud?
He has had many battle over prospects over the years and has won most of them. I wouldn’t take this battle if I were you JD.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
No, not humor.
Casejud might be a tad arrogant but he wins most of these battles and is right more often than not.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I've only noticed his posts
for a few months, but I find almost none of them to hold water. There is no discernible methodology to the way he evaluates players other than a random hodge-podge of counting stats and ARL.
And there’s no “winning” in this stuff. If you think that’s the case I think it’s a little sad.
by blackoutyears on Jun 10, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Counting stats?
I see him use average, OBP and SLG. He also trusts his eyes with players he has seen.
As for your last part, I disagree. Not one of us is right 100% of the time, but there is certainly a fair amount of posters here who automatically write off players for BS reasons and they deserve to eat crow when they so arrogantly acted as if they were right.
Casejud is a tad arrogant, but he has the highest success rate on here.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Success? Rate?
Based on what? If you’re only comparing to the other posters who are all hat and no cattle, maybe. I’ve followed the opinions of dozens of people here, and he’s not even in the running.
You don’t fight arrogance with arrogance. We need fewer idiots who think they’re winning teh internets, not more.
There’s a Frederickness to your posts that’s troubling… lol
by blackoutyears on Jun 10, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Do a search function on Casejud
And see how often he has been right.
Frederick, I do not know who that is.
And actually, again, I disagree. It’s fun to see here who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Casejud is simply a beast when it comes to projecting talent to the big leagues. I don’t see the harm in viewing this as a competition, especially when most of the posters here are arrogant blanknozzles that spew whatever the groupthink opinion is.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
"most of the posters here are arrogant blanknozzles"
If that’s the case you’re here…why?
Looks like some people can’t take a hint when they’re banned…
by blackoutyears on Jun 10, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
How am I banned?
I’m here because it’s fun to take a stand and vouch for prospects you believe in.
If you don’t like it, very easy to ignore Casejud’s posts as well as mine.
You seem to have an arrogant way of looking at things as well.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
"most of the posters here are arrogant blanknozzles"
Answer the question. Why post here if you believe this?
by blackoutyears on Jun 11, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Btw, did you use the search function yet?
And see how RIGHT Casejud has been?
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's one for starters
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/7/547573/buster-posey
Casejud….WINNING
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope, not Casejud.
One of the worst ways to argue is to criticize a poster of being someone else, especially when you have no proof.
Easy cop-out
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a joke, hence the 90's-style emoticon.
Not that there isn’t something odd/fishy about you, but I’m smart enough not to baselessly accuse anyone.
Obviously it's not casejud
things are spelled correctly. :)
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
LOL
He has had many battle over prospects over the years and has won most of them
Says the guy who signed up 5 days ago!
Stick around a couple years, and we might place a little credence in your advice about which discussions to engage in and which ones not to.
Until then, enjoy these debates – they’re what fuel the learning the process around here.
I have lurked a long time
And have watched Casejud take a ton of heat from the know-it-all’s only to end up winning.
Casejud….WINNING!
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 11, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh...
Let’s take a closer look at these three players, shall we?
Numbers from Baseball Cube
Ben Revere: .326/.384/.408
Dustin Ackley: .276/.382/.433
Desmond Jennings: .296/.381/.445
A couple of things stick out right off the bat. First and most important to this discussion, Revere’s OBP is the most dependent on his batting average. His IsoD is .058 while Ackley’s is .106 and Jennings is .085-not that this should be a surprise because Revere walks at a below average pace. As we’ve discussed before(many, many times it seems) unless a person sees Revere as an Ichiro type hitter that will consistently hit .320+, Revere has to make major improvements to his walk rate to be able to post OBP’s similar to the players you use as comparisons here.
Beyond that though, both Ackley and Jennings have shown much greater power than Revere, with IsoP’s almost twice that of Revere. Could Revere end up with the best career of the three? It’s possible, though not something I’d want to put any money on.
This is much more an issue of you holding a player of Revere’s skillset in higher esteem than most others, as opposed to a case of the community “whiffing” on him as you continue to claim.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Nail on the head
Ben Revere’s is a lot more Luis Durango than Des Jennings.
by realitypolice on Jun 10, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
That your mistake, in my opinion
I don;‘t care that Rever’s numbers are morer “dependant on batting average”. My point is that the overloking of Revere’s skills is precisiley because of that fallacy.
If Jennings is a top 10 player, and Ackley is also, then surely Revere is a top 100 player isn’t he? Just based on the stats you posted above. Unless Revere is older, or plays much worse defense, or something? I don’t see this to be the case.
Revere’s average is an ability he has. Tio take that away from him – to normalize it – takes away his main strength. The guy just hits a lot of singles! he probably will continue to hit more than Ackley or Jennings do in the big leagues as well.
Keep in mind, I didn;‘t say he was going to have a better career than either Ackley or Jennings. Isn’t that what you guys are always talking about, a strawman?
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
You make my head hurt
No, I’m not setting up a strawman. All I said was it’s possible you could end up right and Revere could be as good as you think. If he ends up as good as you think, he could be better than Ackley and/or Jennings. I’m not trying to put words in your mouth or setup a strawman to attack later.
Where the problem comes in is with you seemingly unwilling or incapable of comprehending the reasons why people don’t agree with your assessment. Someone(you, me, anyone) would have to believe that either Revere hits .320+ consistently to get on base at such a high clip as he has in the minors OR he has to strongly improve his walk rate against better pitching in the majors to make up the difference if he hits .300 or less.
Either of those scenarios is taking a leap of faith on his abilities, abilities he hasn’t shown nearly as strongly since he’s moved up the ladder from the Midwest League, the magical year he hit .379 and you fell in love with him as a prospect. It’s fine that you believe that much in him, but there isn’t any logical reason to expect EVERYONE ELSE to feel the same way. If you end up being right about Revere and I and everyone else are wrong, I will gladly admit it and put it in my sig line that you were right and I was wrong. But until he does something to prove that you were right, how about we tone down the “COMPLETE WHIFF” nonsense you are going on and on about? Sound fair?
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Your argument is flawed in that it makes an assumption you have yet to prove
Revere may suffer a lower BA and thus a lower OBP in the majors. You suggest it because the majors is more difficult, I concur. But when comparing with Jennings and Ackley do you think their OBP will remain the same?
It seems you assume OBP will suffer more at the higher levels if it’s batting average dependent. This is the case in low A, high A and a little bit in AA because of the fields and D. But unless you can show me a study showing AA and AAA to MLB and how BA and OBP correlate you are just guessing.
I’m not assuming that Ackley and Jennings will maintain their MiLB OBP numbers necessarily, but because they aren’t as dependent on their batting average to buoy their OBP and because they have more present power(and more power potential for that matter) Ackley and Jennings aren’t walking the same fine line that Revere is.
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
I believe this to be a false assertion
. . . and Pedro summed up my entire point nicely. I don’t have any special belief in Ben Revere or attachment to him but, your assertion about his batting average takes away his BIGGEST STRENGTH, and ABILITY – his ability to hit singles.
You want to put his avergae down where Ackley and Jennings are but grant Ackleys and Jennings advantages in power and walks. I LOVE walks and power muyself but, I also like guys who have major league skills.
THIS is what makes a giu like Ackley better than a guy like Joe Benson. Benson may have some pop or draw walks but, he cant hit. Reverte can hit. Can’t you truy and see MY point a little. Im’m trying to learn from evaluating mistakes.;
Not rtespecting Reverte’s ability to hit a lot of singl;es is going to cause him to be completely overlooked in the ranking of prospects. Its already a whiff in my opinion. There aren’t close to 50 better position players in the minor leagues.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
How am I taking his away his strength
by saying I see Revere capable of hitting .300 in the majors? You’ve said this twice, and it doesn’t make any sense.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Ok, I was wrong
If a guy who can hit .300 in the big leagues isn’t one of the 100 best players in the minor leagues, I don’t know what to tell you.
The bar is much lower than you think and he is higher than that bar. Thats all I meant by a “whiff”. If he was ranked #57
If by someone, for instance, that is expressing CONSIDERABLE DOUBT as to how good of a major league player he will be. Ranking him as not one of the best 100, just doesn’t represent his talent – its a swing and a miss. Just my opinion.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
If a player hits around .300
but doesn’t provide a lot of value in other ways, no he’s not necessarily one of the best 100 players in the minors. A lot of this goes back to philosophical differences in prospect lists in general, but if a guy who wasn’t ranked in a top 100 list goes to have a better career than half of the ranked players it doesn’t mean he should have been ranked differently. There are too many factors that are involved for it to be that simple. Players get hurt and never have a career or have it cut short or drastically altered. Pitchers can learn a new pitch in the middle of their career and see a huge change. Some players develop later than others.
I think I’ve said this to you before, but as much as you want prospecting and lists to become more of an exact science it just isn’t likely to happen because we’re dealing with people.
As far as the whiff stuff…I just don’t see how you can make such definitive statements(and so frequently of late) with players that haven’t gone on and proven themselves extensively at the major league level. If Revere goes on to have a career somewhat similar to Kenny Lofton as you’ve suggested at other times in the past, then yes the prospecting community would have been wrong about him.
At this point though, it’s your expectations of him vs. the rest of us and neither camp can claim victory at this stage. It’s not as if he went to AAA and saw marked improvement in his performance(like Rizzo, a whiff) or made huge strides in a very important facet of his game(plate discipline and Paul Goldschmidt, not a whiff but a revelation). Revere did basically what he’s done the last couple of years, hit around .300 and post sub-standard walk rates and power numbers. His walk rate even fell substantially, though it’s a small sample and could be nothing more than SSS noise.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Revere
looks like Freddy Sanchez. Players like Sanchez and David DeJesus are nice players, but it’s hard to say that they’ve ever been one of the Top 100 players in the majors (Freddy in his batting title year perhaps) and there’s absolutely no reason to fret over their not being more lauded on their way to the bigs.
by blackoutyears on Jun 12, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Frddy Sanchez
in the year he was last a minior leaguer was CLEARLY one of the top 100 players in the minor leagues and OF COURSE he should be consuidered so.
No need to fret about it obnly If you just don’t cvare about the accuracy of yours or anybodys particular prospect list. If so tan that is EXACTLOY what one should do! No need to “fret” exactly but oonje shoukld look back and see why one would make such a glaring error.
I’m looking now. Freddy hit .320/ .384/.443 in the minors, in over 1774 PA’s and played a decent SHORTSTOP, making him an absolutely fantastic second base prospect.
Say what you want about Sanchez ther big leaguer but, he was clearly a LOT bettter than the 100th best prospect in 2005 and It is easy to see.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
I didn't say 100 best prospects
I said 100 best players in the majors. There’s a difference. And since I’ve had both Sanchez and DeJesus on my team since they were minor leaguers, I doubt you were on them before I was. Add in the fact that Sanchez was doing the damage you’re talking about in his mid-20s and it’s a lot less special. If you want to follow every 25-year-old who’s tearing up the IL be my guest, but for every Sanchez there are 10 Matt Tolberts, and for every Tolbert there are 100 guys you’ll never hear about again.
by blackoutyears on Jun 12, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure
I’m not sure what being one of the top 100 big leaguers has to do with anything. The discussion was about where he (or Revere etc) ranks in an individual seasons minor league class.
You have a point about 25 year olds in AAA but, Sanchexz was great in AA at age 23 and then went back at age 24. He was behind the curve there as far as big league stars go.
It is easy to see how he could haver gone unnotuiced as a prospect in say, the offseason of 2003, but the talent was eveident nonetheless. He probably could have been ranked 40-50 or so and has obviously turned out to be even better than that.
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."
- Bill Hicks
Lots here to talk about
but I notice you already giving yourself, and anyone else a PASS onm overlooking Paul Goldschmidt? That is exactly what I am talking about! There is no way someone that good can be just glossed over as someone nobopdy could have seen coming.
At least you intelligent enough to see that he wasa a whiff NOW at least. Some peopkle STILL don’t see it! There are degrees of skills involved in this.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
It's funny
because I was posting on Goldschmidt since the second week of the 2010 minor league season, and I’m not 1/18th as obnoxious as you are about it. As soon as you realize it’s about the players, and not you, you’ll get some respect. Here is my post at PP on April 16:
Two interesting 2009 college draftees are off to good starts and could see rapid promotions. Paul Goldschmidt (attended The Woodlands H.S., Taillon’s and Drabek’s school, drafted out of Tex St.) is scorching. It was hard to gauge his post-draft numbers in 2009 because the D-Backs left him in rookie ball all year, where he was ridiculous. He and Ryan Wheeler are two interesting 1B prospects AZ has. Blake Smith has been solid for the Dodgers, and seems to good to be in Low-A. He was a 2nd Round pick, so it’s interesting that he wasn’t tabbed for High-A. Could hit his way there soon enough.
The Dodgers have another tweener sort of guy I’ve been following, Jerry Sands (sounds like a lost Rat Pack member), who is at Great Lakes with Smith. He’s got an idea at the plate (104:70 K:BB in his minor league career), shows decent power and is listed as a CF. He’s 22, and should also be in High-A sooner than later. Must be a bit of an OF log-jam if guys like Smith and Sanders are stuck where they are.
Nothing too unexpected on the first BA Hotsheet of the year aside from maybe Nick Franklin, who I thought was a bit underrated coming into the year. For a HS kid he seems pretty hard-nosed and businesslike, and he could end up being a solid every day player. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
by blackoutyears on Jun 12, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Good stuff
I’m glad you were ahead of the curve on those guys.
I don’t know what is so obnoxious about saying we could do better at noticing certain players, especially obvious ones.
You seem like a smart guy but, you are selling yourself on the obnoxiousness part. You may not like m,y percieved arrogance but, you can be pretty obnioxious yourself when you try.
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."
- Bill Hicks
you are assuming
Revere will have more of a negative impact with his OBP than Ackely or Jennings. Any stats to back this up?
There are none, of course
We ALL like guys who walk and hit for power, they are cool, but as you get older you appreciate a guy who can play in the big leagues at all.
Thats why I like Revere better than Joe benson or Travon Robinson, for instance. Revere may hit all singles but, at least he’ll be able to hit big league pitching.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
I'm not going to go searching
for links, but I’m positive I’ve read more than once that walk rates are more stable than batting average year in and year out. If Revere improves his walk rate in the future over the ~7.5% he’s posted in the minors it’s less of a concern. But since I don’t see him hitting .320 regularly(or even .300 regularly, it’s not an easy thing to do for a hitter) I think he’ll struggle more with OBP than players like Ackley and Jennings(players casejud used as comparisons originally, I only played along with his examples).
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Hey, you might be entirely correct
My only point was you were stating something as fact. If you do ever see that study again please link it, I would be interested in reading it.
It also defies logic
If Ackley, Jennings, and Revere all get on base at the same rate in the minors – in a large enough sample size – then they should expect to do so in the majors right?
Unless there is a valid reason for them not too such as . . .
Revere is older or phsically not as talented
He played in easier leagues to hit.
Or something else.
Why should Ackley and Jennings be considered better bets to get on base just becaue they arter LESS able to get base hits?
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Ryan Verdugo
Will be a starter in the big leagues very soon
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 9, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions
If he is
I’m sure Jud will be here to excoriate everyone for their stupidity in whiffing on him.
by realitypolice on Jun 9, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
CaseJud is a BEAST
Anyone remember when he argued to the death that Buster Posey was a better prospect than Matt Weiters?
How he defended Posey’s power when everyone thought he was a 10 HR guy because some dumb scouts said so?
CaseJud….MY MAN!
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 9, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
To be honest
I think one of the criticisms of blogging commenters in regards to baseball and player evaluation is that the majority of them refuse to acknowledge when they are wrong. That’s not such a big deal normally, but there are a lot of posters that are quite arrogant in their takes, and my belief is if you are arrogant in berating players or praising players, a big plate of crow is just what you need to teach some humility.
Now, disclaimer. I have not posted on this blog or read it for very long, so i’m not sure if the majority here fall under that category. I do find CaseJud’s posts entertaining , and I admire his confidence.
For example though, the Giants blog Mccovey Chronicles is a very prime example of this. I’m not sure I have seen a community whiff on player evaluations as much as them, and they’re easily the most arrogant community on SB Nation. And yes….They hardly ever admit when they are wrong, and start twisting data to cover for themselves.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 9, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way
. . . we can talk ANTIME about player sI was wrong about. Anytime! I am not at all afraid to do that. . . Micah Owings, Andy Marte, Mat Gamel, etc. We all have ’em.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Here's the Posey thread.
CaseJud….WINNING!
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/7/547573/buster-posey
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Shit even I like this!
Some of my best work! “F**k scouts!”
Scouts were supposedly unanimous that Wieters was better than Posey, and he isn’t better now, Is he?
Thanks for posting that. I dont know how you got to be my biggest fan but, I LIKE IT! Thanks.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
I admire your ability to not fall into Groupthink
There’s a lot of it around here. You’re not always right, but you don’t play the passive aggressive BS role most people do with their takes on prospects.
" Oh he’ll be an average player. More or less. I’m too afraid to take a stand so I will passively offer a bland prediction as to what he will do".
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions
You know what is funny?
This is what SCOUTS do? I just read this today about the scout who discovered signed Darek Jeter. He told the Yankees he’d be in Cooperstown one day when Jeter was in High School!
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Also it is funny
That on a sabermetric-based blog like this one so many people would takesome idiot Scout’s opinion on Posey’s power and treat it as gospel.
I saw the kid in San Jose High A ball take 4 AB’s and KNEW he had much better power than everyone expected. Strong base, plenty of bat speed, etc…. And I am not a scout… LOL. Some guys, the ball just jumps off the Bat, and that is Posey. Unlike Wieters with his mush balls off the bat.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Even back them I just posed it as a question “If Wieters has so much m,ore power, why did he hit 10 homers and Posey hit 27?”
Answer? Wieters has miore power because he is taller – lol
Bad answer.
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
Yep.
You do realize comparing Wieters and Posey is just silly at least on the offensive side don’t you? Wieters is a beast hes like 6’5" tall 230-235lbs and a switch hitter. Posey is 6’1" 205 right handed batter(great for that ballpark). Now physical stature isn’t everything but I’ll take genetic freak everytime over the standard build if everything else is equal. FYI Posey if he stayed at SS would have been the 3rd SS taken behind the two Beckhams. That should tell you something about his offensive value especially when you consider that the two Beckhams don’t project to be over 20-25HR hitters a year.
Of course, this was an A’s fan. But this was everyone’s opinion, really. Wieters is a fine young catcher but he will never be a star.
Ryan Verdugo....The next Jonathan Sanchez.
Dick Tidrow knows pitching.
by AngelsFlyWhenTheyTakeThemselvesLightly on Jun 10, 2011 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions
lol
I would If had heard of himk maybe :) This is why I criticize the community so harshly sometimes. I cant notice EVERBODY! I have other things to do.
There are lots of people here so SOMBODY should be able to tell me how good Tim Collins, Tyler Chatwood, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Revere, etc, etc, etc are before I see how good they are in the big leagues right?
"if it first you don't suceed, maybe you just suck" - Kenny Powers
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