2011 MLB Draft Results: Steals and Stretches

by John Sickels on Jun 7, 2011 10:30 AM EDT

Mikie Mahtook (Getty)

Some thoughts and opinions on the first day of the 2011 MLB draft yesterday, focusing on Steals and Stretches

Biggest Steal: Mikie Mahtook dropping all the way to 31 surprised me, but I guess that is testimony to the strength of the draft this year. His performance for LSU this spring was spetacular, even with the new bats, and he's got some tools; he isn't a slug, and I think some press reports that his tools are just average are overblown. I think he can stay in center field for awhile, but even so he is a guy who could be a 20-20 player, and he's made huge strides with his late discipline. Big bargain at 31 in my view.

Biggest Stretches: Cory Spangenberg is a stretch for me at 10th overall. I could see him at 20-25, but 10 was too early. However, apparently the Padres REALLY wanted him, and didn't think he would be available at 25, so while I think it was an overdraft, I'm not really critical about it.

A second stretch was Stanford's Chris Reed at 16, as I think he is more of a supplemental talent. But the Dodgers have serious financial constraints, he would sign for slot, and it's not like he's a bum: he's a lefty with a 90+ fastball and a starter's arsenal despite relief use in college. If they stretch out his arm properly and convert him successfully to the rotation, this can work out.

Tampa Bay's selection of shortstop Jason Hager at 32 is an overdraft by about 20 spots, as I saw him more as a late supplemental guy. Baseball America is pretty down on him but I think he is better than they what wrote up, great intangibles with underrated tools. Kevin Matthews at 33 also seems an overdraft by 20-30 spots to me, but the Rangers have some expertise in undersized lefties with live arms, and I will defer to their judgment for now.

So overall,

Biggest Value/Steal: Mikie Mahtook.
Biggest Stretches: Spangenberg, Reed, Hager, Matthews, although you can see the logic behind all four and none of them are totally insane.

I will have more about the supplemental round later.

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Panik?

You didn’t think Joe Panik was an overdraft?

I thought he was pegged as a second rounder.

by DavidS on Jun 7, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

panik

No, I don’t think he was. I had him as an early supplemental. He went a little earlier than I thought but not by a huge amount. This is another guy I think has underrated tools and is extremely polished.

by John Sickels on Jun 7, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

I'm just not seeing it

Do you really think he can develop enough power to be a league average 2B? Or do you think he will be able to steal enough bases to provide value that way?

Also, do you think his swing is a little longish? And if so, how correctable do you think that is?

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by Giant Torture on Jun 7, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

panik

1) Possibly
2) Possibly. More important are OBP skills that I really believe in, with at least doubles power.
3) He hit well in the Cape Cod League with wood. I’m not worried about his swing.

by John Sickels on Jun 7, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Coming Around

I thought for sure the Giants would grab an arm in this pitching deep draft, but I’m starting to come around on Panik.

He doesn’t look like Mr. Upside, but if slots in nicely behind Freddy Sanchez in a couple years, plays D, gets on base and strokes some doubles that would be fine.

Plus, the headlines just write themselves.

Panik in Detroit!

Panik in the Frisco!

Do Panik! (this could be a tie-in with a special Douglas Adams promotion).

Panik Stricken Out!

by DavidS on Jun 7, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Rendon to the Nats was the biggest steal IMO

Great pick for the Nats.

Questions for all. Has anyone heard what the medicals contained. Also – do you see Rendon signing earlier so they can get the shoulder cleaned up sooner rather than later if a procedure of some sort is needed.

Thanks

by emoofb on Jun 7, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

Wow just saw medicals did not figure in to Pirates decision to pass on Rendon

Little shocked. Not sure why he slid.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/6/6/2210435/pirates-anthony-rendon-2011-mlb-draft

by emoofb on Jun 7, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

that is a no win situation for huntington..

what else could he have answered? if he said the medicals were bad, then it looks like cole is a consolation prize, and that they had to “settle” for him as the default. the fact that he slid to washington tells me the medicals weren’t very promising, regardless of what huntington said.

by jsn4219 on Jun 7, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Percisely

He couldn’t throw Cole or Rendon under the bus. Cole’s a Pirate now, well at least when he signs, which will be up to Scott Boras, who happens to also be Rendon’s agent. If NH trashes Rendon, he risks creating an even worse relationship with Boras (remember the Alvarez fiasco).

The Pirates probably would love to say that Rendon’s shoulder is a bum one so they don’t get blamed for passing on him by the media/fanbase, but they can’t. Four other teams passing on Rendon is good enough for me; his shoulder must be serious.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 7, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

It would be pretty unprofessional to badmouth Rendon after passing on him.

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by King Billy Royal on Jun 7, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

You know we're way too lawyered up when...

telling the truth is equivalent to badmouthing.

That being said, it is unprofessional to ask for confidential medical records then disclose their contents.

Lying is unprofessional as well, but I guess most sports executive have a different opinion. Should have just focused on what they liked about Cole rather than discuss a player they passed on.

by slacker george on Jun 7, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

couldnt he say 'we had them about even on our board'

and rendon’s questionable health made our decision easy?….seems like nobody’s feelings are hurt that way

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 7, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting observation

I tend too agree

by pack_fan on Jun 8, 2011 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

LAD

I wonder if the Dodgers really have money issues – yes I know all about the divorce and trouble with payroll – or if being supervised/run by MLB resulted in a strict slot money pick?

by cooper7d7 on Jun 7, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

I think it was both.

They do have money issues, having trouble to make payroll is money issues, and the fact that MLB has to approve of their moves doesn’t help because they wouldn’t approve an over-slot deal.

I think they could have done better than Reed for slot there.

by DominicanDandy on Jun 7, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

John

just wondering, if it’s only going by gut instinct right now, what grades would you assign the top 10 draft picks?

by blue bulldog on Jun 7, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

grades

I’m not even thinking along those lines yet, lol

by John Sickels on Jun 7, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

ah ok

never mind then haha

by blue bulldog on Jun 7, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Spangenberg

Any insight on how much of the Padres decision to take Spangenberg at 10 was based on the fact that it was an unprotected pick? I would think that it’s got to be a combination of really liking him and being really sure that they could sign him.

by Drakos on Jun 7, 2011 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

bust

Who would you say is the biggest bust so far? :)

by El Duq of Hurl on Jun 7, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Cole, obvi.

;-)

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by DbacksSkins on Jun 7, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I would hope the Padres really wanted him

Since he was the #9 player on their board. Can’t fault them for getting their 9th best player with the 10th overall pick.

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by Wonko on Jun 7, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions

I agree withthis,

if i was a Dodgers fan i would be a bit disapointed. I mean the guy they got looks good, but i have to feel like there were better options out there for them.

by Jt Malley on Jun 7, 2011 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

Nick Burdi

Was a great pick in the 24th round by your Twins John. Could be a really nice pitcher if they fix his funky arm motion

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by mathisrocks5 on Jun 7, 2011 8:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Hey John

Just was curious of what you think about the Mets draft as a whole. I’m pretty happy to see them go completely in the opposite direction for a change, picking a ton of HS kids instead of the many college seniors they usually seem to draft.

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by Steve Schreiber on Jun 7, 2011 9:48 PM EDT reply actions