Prospect of the Day: Ryan Lavarnway, C, Boston Red Sox
Prospect of the Day: Ryan Lavarnway
Jarrod Saltalamacchia currently holds down the catching job with the Boston Red Sox, with the aging Jason Varitek as the primary backup. Knocking on the door is prospect Ryan Lavarnway, currently on a tear with Triple-A Pawtucket.
Lavarnway was drafted by the Red Sox in the sixth round in 2008, out of Yale, where he holds the Ivy League record for career home runs. Scouts respected his power, but weren't sure if he would hit for much of an average in pro ball, and had serious doubts about his ability to remain behind the plate. He answered the doubts about his bat by hitting .285/.367/.540 with 21 homers for Low-A Greenville in 2009, then a combined .288/.393/.489 with 22 homers and 102 RBI between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland in 2010. He returned to Portland to begin '11 and hit a very similar .284/.360/.510 in 55 games, which earned him a promotion to Pawtucket. In 11 games since moving up, he's hit .356/.420/.667 with another three homers.
All told, Lavarnway is a career .284/.375/.509 hitter in 320 minor league games, with no deterioration in his performance as he's moved up the ladder. Indeed, if anything he's improved, easing scout concerns about a long swing by showing power to all fields. He has decent plate discipline and his strikeout rate has actually declined as he's moved up. Although he won't win batting titles in the majors, I expect that he'll carry the power forward.
The serious question has always been defense, and while Lavarnway has spent much of his career as a DH, his glove has improved. His arm is average, but a slow release inhibited his throwing early in his career, while poor footwork and lack of mobility rendered him less than reliable as a defender: he coughed up 26 passed balls in just 66 games behind the plate in 2009. However, he cut that down to 11 in 53 defensive games last year, and this year he's reduced the rate even further to four passed balls and just one error in 32 games behind the plate.
He's caught a respectable 36% of runners trying to steal on him this year. Red Sox farm director Mike Hazen tells me that Lavarnway has made "very good strides behind the plate with a continuously improving feel working with pitchers and calling games." Hazen also praises Lavarnway's continued improvement with receiving and blocking, which clearly shows up in the statistics.
Although Lavarnway will never win gold gloves, if he maintains his current progress he can be at least adequate defensively, while providing considerable power on the offensive side. We should see him in Fenway later this year, and he could take a larger role on the major league roster in 2012.
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Lavarnway
I have watched him play at least 20 times and the defense concerns are over rated. Is he bad back there? No, but it is certainly not good. I would say he is better than Victor Martinez back there, for example. Actually pretty close to Saltalamcchia’s abilities behind the plate.
His hitting is just amazing to watch. I remember watching him take batting practice once and I think he hit a home run every time. His power ceiling is almost unlimited. And like you said John, he can hit to all fields, something you always watch for in young hitters.
He knows how to hit, I see no weaknesses at the plate. Defense can be improved but it should not stop him from being called up. Lavarnway is my favorite prospect right now in the Boston system.
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Off topic, but related
What does this mean for the future of Luis Exposito – relegated to being an eternal backup? His bat can’t compete with Lavarnway, but has a better glove/defensive approach.
Expo can't hit
he has a slow, long swing. Defense is terrific, but he will never hit in MLB. Backup if lucky.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 27, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Exposito
Lavarnaway has the great bat, questionable glove. Federwicz has the great glove but questionable bat. If the front office could somehow merge the two into Lavarnawicz they would have an elite prospect. I don’t think Exposito (and his .213 average) is an everyday catcher and will struggle to earn with the backup spot with Lavarnaway and FedEx ahead of him.
Fascinating Prospect
I don’t think anyone questions his bat, his defense is clearly the X-factor. Can he call a decent game, throw out a runner or two and continue to improve blocking balls? If not, he looks to be, in my opinion, a Matt LeCroy clone who won’t cut it behind the plate and be a 1B/DH/emergency catcher. However, if his defense continues to improve then Varitek can’t catch forever and he could be next in line to replace him.
Current Prospect Grade - Current Rank Among MiLB Catchers?
What current prospect grade would you guys give Lavarnway, and where would you rank him with regards to the other catching prospects (for fantasy purposes) in the minor leagues?
lav
B- minimum, maybe B. I like him a lot.
I don’t know where he’d rank among catchers off the top of my head. I’d have to look a bunch of guys, but he would be there somewhere if he does get a Grade B
by John Sickels on Jun 27, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Expo or Lavarnway?
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 27, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally!
I used to like Expo, but I have lost all confidence in him. He is proving he can’t hit in AAA.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 27, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a fan as well
Thanks for writing this John.
What’s his ceiling? I right-handed hitting McCann? Maybe a slightly lesser version of that? Floor is a right-handed hitting Saltalamacchia?

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