Prospect of the Day: Tom Milone, LHP, Washington Nationals

by John Sickels on Jun 20, 2011 8:00 AM EDT

Washington Nationals pitching prospect Tom Milone (Photo by Jim McGregor, courtesy of Syracuse Chiefs)

Prospect of the Day: Tom Milone, LHP, Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have an interesting pitcher at Triple-A Syracuse: left-hander Tom Milone. He doesn't show up on top prospect lists, but he has exceptional command and has ridden this skill to the cusp of the major leagues.

Milone had a fine junior year for the University of Southern California in 2008, with a 3.51 ERA in 14 starts and a 98/20 K/BB in 97 innings. He was drafted in the 10^th round, then proceeded to have strong minor league seasons in 2009 (12-5, 2.91 ERA, 106/36 K/BB in 151 IP for High-A Potomac) and 2010 (12-5, 2.85 ERA, 155/23 K/BB in 158 IP for Double-A Harrisburg). Note the strong spike in his strikeout rate as he moved to Double-A.

Promoted to Triple-A this year, he has a 3.81 ERA with a stunning 82/5 K/BB in 76 innings with 77 hits allowed. His ERA is actually misleading; his FIP is much better at 2.25. He now has a career 3.12 ERA with a 392/73 K/BB in 444 innings in the minors. His component ratios are actually improving as he moves up: his K/9 has increased from 6.3 in '09, to 8.8 in '10, to 9.8 this year. His BB/9 has dropped from 2.1 to a miniscule 0.6 in that time.

Milone doesn't show up on hot prospect lists because he doesn't throw hard: his fastball is just in the 85-87 range, hitting 88-89 on his very best days. Despite the lack of velocity, the fastball is an effective pitch for him due to the contrast with his plus-quality changeup, a good cutter, and a solid-to-above-average curve. His command is obviously terrific, he has mound presence, and a consistent habit of exceeding the expectations of scouts.

Although his margin for error will never be great, Milone is a very intriguing prospect with an excellent statistical resume. The fact that he keeps improving when exposed to better competition is a good sign for his future.

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Milone is one of my favorite Nats prospects. I’m hoping he gets a shot at the bigs sometime this September if not sooner.

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by what Juneau about that? on Jun 20, 2011 8:04 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I agree, it's been fun following Milone up the ladder. This kid can pitch!

by Berndaddy on Jun 20, 2011 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

This kid cant really throw the ball that hard.

but he is a true pitcher and knows how to pitch. He has a good mix of pitches and his K/BB rate is outstanding. i think we will see this guy as a september call up this year and it wouldnt suprise me if he made the team out of spring trainning next year.

by Jt Malley on Jun 20, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Chances of a call-up

If his year continues to go well, I could see him as a replacement for Jordan Zimmermann after the latter is shut down for innings limit post TJ surgery.

He doesn’t fit the Rizzo mold but at some point he deserves a shot. I hope he gets it.

Lannan is a similar pitcher and this year his velocity has ticked up a bit. Not sure if that is something projected for Milone.

by 3b11 on Jun 20, 2011 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

I don't understand the comparison to Lannan

Yes, both of them are LHP with weak fastballs, but Lannan has never shown significant better than average control, while Milone seems to have outstanding control. Potentially more excitingly, Lannan’s highest K rate in the minors was 7.5, and that was in A ball; Milone’s been striking out around a batter per inning for the last year and a half in AA and AAA. Whether it’s because of better secondary stuff, or better command, or simply a better ability to pitch, Milone seems to have the potential to be substantially better.

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by OldProspects on Jun 20, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

"both of them are LHP with weak fastballs"

my point dealt with Lannan’s increased velocity and the potential(?) for Milone to do the same so this was all I was comparing.

by 3b11 on Jun 20, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm a Milone fan as well.

Each year he continues to address the doubters. Was not expecting him to pass Ross Detwiler this year as “lefty most likely to be called up”. With Yunesky Maya struggling and Ross Detwiler seeming to have lost velocity, Milone seems to have as good a shot as any of being called up if Marquis gets traded or Tom Gorzelanny continues to struggle.

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by souldrummer on Jun 20, 2011 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

just saw his stas about a month ago.

When i was checking out AAA stats about a month ago i ran across him. I had to look twice at his K/BB rate. Especially the BB he has or i guess has not given up. I even refreshed the page thinking this couldnt be right. I mentioned him to Bradley over at Deepleagues.com. I asked why this guy hasnt had a shot yet. He said the same about his fastball. It seems to me the Nats are missing out here. Anyone with that success even at the minor levels, and the improvement shown along the way deserves at least a look. His K/BB numbers as John mentioned are unbelievable at the AAA level. This guy obviously knows how to throw a game if his fastball is below avg. And theres alot to be said about doing it the way he is at his age. It tells me they have a successful MLB SP in waiting.

by Strocat on Jun 20, 2011 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

Reminds me of Kirk Rueter

Lefty, who can really pitch. Doesn’t blow anyone away, but always seems to miss more bats than you would think and his ball seems to run up and down bats as well.

by Pig.Pen on Jun 21, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions