Prospect of the Day: Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
by John Sickels on Jun 17, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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Prospect of the Day: Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners promoted heralded prospect Dustin Ackley to the major leagues on Thursday, handing him the second base job and inserting him in the starting lineup tonight against the Phillies. Will the second-overall pick in the 2009 draft live up to lofty expectations?
A star at the University of North Carolina, Ackley was considered by most scouts to be the best pure hitter available in the 2009 draft. He hit .402/.448/.591 as a freshman in '07, .417/.503/.597 as a sophomore in '08, and .417/.517/.763 as a junior in '09, with 22 homers and a 50/34 BB/K in 266 at-bats. Scouts loved his swing, and he showed an outstanding batting eye to go with it. He also ran well and had great "intangibles." The main question on draft day was defense. He had Tommy John surgery in '08 and spent much of his college career at first base, but scouts felt he had the athleticism and instincts to play center field or second base.
The Mariners decided to use Ackley at second base. He's needed some adaptation time, as you would expect, and while he's never going to be a Gold Glove player, his defense is competent, with average range and improving reliability. He can certainly stick in the lineup defensively if he hits as expected. His speed is above average and he is a fundamentally sound runner, though he isn't an overly aggressive stealer, with 17 steals in 200 minor league games.
Ackley didn't light the Double-A Southern League on fire early in 2010, but he did show good plate discipline (55/41 BB/K in 289 at-bats for West Tennessee) while posting a .263/.389/.384 line. This was enough to earn a promotion to Triple-A, where he showed a bit more pop and hit .274/.338/.439 in 212 at-bats for Tacoma. Some observers were disappointed in him last year, but keep in mind he was learning a new position and had totally skipped A-ball. He looked outstanding in the Arizona Fall League last autumn, hitting .424/.581/.758.
Ackley had another slow start for Tacoma this year (this seems like a pattern), hitting .211/.336/.305 in April. But he caught on fire in May (.355/.449/.605) and June (.346/.500/.538), giving him an overall line this spring of .303/.421/.487. He's hit nine homers already, compared to just seven all of last year, and his 55/38 BB/K is exceptional. He has nothing left to learn about hitting in the minor leagues.
In the majors, Ackley projects as a high-batting-average hitter with moderate power. His excellent strike zone judgment should keep his on-base percentage quite strong. Scouts expect that he'll contend for batting titles, although his history of slow starts, as well as the difficult nature of Safeco Field, could be a hindrance, at least until he gets his feet wet. As with any rookie there may be some ups-and-downs, but overall Ackley will be a solid regular at worst and has a good chance to become much more than that.
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Dustin Pedroia?
Only taking hitting into consideration would Dustin Pedroia be a decent upside comp?
High battering average with a moderately high OBP and around 15-20 HR and SB a year?
Midnight, behind the box. I'll be the Hyena . . . you'll see.
Kipnis
I’d take Kipnis’ bat over Ackley’s. But I’d be happy with either.
I don't buy that one can tag him with ana bsolute
“history of slow starts.” It’s been just two seasons.
He had a slow start when he started in AA. He had a slow start when he was called up to AAA last year. He had a slow start when this season started.
He’s needed adjustment time at every level so far, its safe to say that if he struggles in the first month in Seattle, it wouldn’t be unusual.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 17, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that he will probably struggle initially.
John seems to be insinuating, however, that it’s a trend that will continue throughout his career:
Scouts expect that he’ll contend for batting titles, although his history of slow starts, as well as the difficult nature of Safeco Field, could be a hindrance,
Adjusting to a new level is one thing
Saying that his history of slow starts will hurt his chances at a future batting title is silly.
I agree, but only since its just two seasons we're looking at here
likely we see it next year even, but it doesn’t highlight a trend just yet. Not that it would be outrageous to suggest it might signal a trend, however.
2B defense.
Derek Jeter is a Hall of Fame player who has mostly been a horrible shortstop, yet few people have ever said he should be moved off of the position. I’m confident Ackley can stick at 2B for a long time.
follow @casetines
Jeter hasn't mostly been a horrible shortstop
When he was young he was pretty damn good. He was pretty bad in later years but you can’t ignore the first decade of his defense.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jun 17, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
This is still a quote that makes me chuckle, and pretty much sums up Jeter's defense throughout his career:
When you see Derek Jeter take two steps to his left and dive, that’s not very good range.
That doesn't sum up his career
It sums up the later part of his career, not the first decade. I am not a Jeter fan but people need to remember that this guy was a good defender for a decade before he declined.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jun 17, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
his defense is awful now, and him winning GG is ludicrous and absurd, but he was a very good SS in his prime. I’m surprised people are forgetting this.
I'm sorry, but Derek Jeter has never been a "good" or "very good" defender
Both those mean to me that he was above average defensively, which he has never proven to be.
There are points in his career when he was an average or passible defensive SS, but he’s never been “good.”
No advanced defensive metric (TZ, DRS, or UZR) ever had him above average for more than one season at a time. For his career he’s racked up -129 runs in TZ, -121 in DRS, and -43.6 in UZR. UZR is kind to him because of his good hands (low error rate at +32.6 runs) but all recognize his very limited range (-114 in DRS, -70.5 in UZR).
Good points.
UZR has also only been around since 2002, DRS has been around just since 2003, and TZ goes way back.
To accrue -121 runs in just 7.5 seasons? Insane. Jeter’s the worst by a large margin.
"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps
by perfectstrat on Jun 17, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
There's really not any evidence of this, other than the "eye test" and that test doesn't really pass muster.
Can Jeter make the great play? Absolutely. And he often has to make the great play because his range sucks. He’s got great instincts and sacrifices the body and a good arm, but the pretty damn good shortstops just make more plays.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 17, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty damn good shortstops are usually in the top 10-15 defensive players in baseball.
If Jeter is average or even a little below-average at shortstop, he would still be a pretty good defensive player overall.
But he certainly didn’t deserve all those GG’s.
Ackley looked good.
He looks like he can stick at second. He turned a really tough double play, stayed in there and took the slide. Of course Pineda stole the show.
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