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2011 Baseball Mock Draft: Supplemental Round

Continuing with a Mock 2011 Draft, with the Supplemental First Round

Star-divide

 

34) Nationals (Dunn): Dwight Smith, OF, Georgia HS: Pure hitter with  major league bloodlines, provide some balance to the two college pitchers earlier in the draft.

35) Blue Jays (for Scott Downs): Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, South Carolina: Even with the injury this is far enough for him to fall.

36) Red Sox (Martinez): Anthony Meo, RHP, Coastal Carolina: Power arm with Northeast connections and a good value here.

37) Rangers (Lee): Dillon Howard, RHP, Arkansas HS: Projectable high school arm too good to pass here.

38) Rays (Soriano): Matthew Purke, LHP, TCU: You draft him, see how his arm responds, then see if you really want him. At worst you've used up one of your huge number of picks and get compensated next year.

39) Phillies (for Jayson Werth): Brandon Nimmo, OF, Wyoming HS: The Phillies prefer tools and Nimmo has plenty of those. Cold-weather background but should still go high enough to buy out of college at Arkansas.

40) Red Sox (Beltre): Jason Esposito, 3B, Vanderbilt: Another college guy with local ties for Boston but upside to go with it.

41) Rays (Crawford): Trevor Story, SS, Texas HS: Cron and Michael balance college affordability with talent while Purke is an upside gamble. Here you return to regular Rays approach with a toolsy high school shortstop.

42) Rays (for Grant Balfour): Hudson Boyd, RHP, Florida HS: Local talent with supplemental first-round ability and should still be signable here.

43) Diamondbacks (for Adam LaRoche): Andrew Chafin, LHP, Kent State: Signing Hultzen and Barnes won't be cheap, but Chafin fits well here on talent and affordability and provides another strong college arm to reinforce system.

44) Mets (for Pedro Feliciano): James McCann, C, University of Arkansas: Good defender with a chance to hit, and the Mets need catching.

45) Rockies (for Octavio Dotel): Phil Evans, INF, California HS: Could probably still be signed away from San Diego State here and would be a potential bargain. Would be a first round pick in some drafts.

46) Blue Jays (for John Buck): Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River CC: Best pure hitter left on the board, good balance for high school hitter Baez and college hitter Bradley.

47) White Sox (for J.J. Putz): J.R. Graham, RHP, Santa Clara. The White Sox are always tough to read and the farm system needs everything. Graham could go a lot higher than this.

48) Padres (for Jon Garland): Michael Kelly, RHP, Florida HS: High-upside guy to go with Springer and Anderson from the college ranks.

49) Giants (for Juan Uribe): Jorge Lopez, RHP, Puerto Rico HS: Doesn't get mentioned often enough, but Lopez has a very projectable upside arm that would fit perfectly with the Giants.

50) Twins (for Orlando Hudson): Grayson Garvin, LHP, Vanderbilt: Polished lefty fits the Twins mold.

51) Yankees (for Javier Vazquez): Kevin Comer, RHP, New Jersey HS: High upside, won't be cheap to sign away from Vanderbilt, but the Yankees have the money and he's local.

52) Rays (for Brad Hawpe): Zach Cone, OF, University of Georgia: Outstanding athlete which attracts the Rays, but affordable to sign.

53) Blue Jays (for Kevin Gregg): Adam Conley, LHP, Washington State: Power lefty converted to rotation after relieving last year. Could easily go 10 spots higher.

54) Padres (for Yorvit Torrealba): Joe Ross, RHP, California HS: Power arm similar to his older brother Tyson Ross. Another one who could easily go much higher.

55) Twins (for Jesse Crain): Ryan Carpenter, LHP, Gonzaga: Big lefty would go 30 spots higher in some drafts.

56) Rays (for Joaquin Benoit): Julius Gaines, SS, Georgia HS: Athletic shortstop with slick glove and developing bat.

57) Blue Jays (for Miguel Olivo): Dillon Maples, RHP, North Carolina HS: Upside guy to mix with earlier picks.

58) Padres (for Kevin Correia): Garrett Buechele, 3B, University of Oklahoma. This would seem like a big stretch six months ago but it is entirely plausible now given his hitting with the new metal bat and solid defense.  

59) Rays (for Randy Choate): Jack Armstrong, RHP, Vanderbilt: Seems like the kind of guy who would thrive in the Rays organization.

60) Rays (for Chad Qualls): Tony Zych, RHP, University of Louisville: College closer looked great in the Cape Cod League last year.


So, if you were a Rays fan, would you be happy with a haul of Robert Stephenson, C.J. Cron, Levi Michael, Matthew Purke, Trevor Story, Hudson Boyd, Zach Cone, Julius Gaines, Jack Armstrong, and Tony Zych? Is that balanced and affordable enough and does it seem like something that could happen?

What about the Jays take of Javier Baez, Jackie Bradley, Cory Spangenberg, Adam Conley, and Dillon Maples?  The other multiple draft classes?

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Jays

I’d probably jump for joy if that turned out to be the Jays’ real draft. Just getting Baez and Bradley Jr. with the first two picks would be perfect to me, and it seems somewhat reasonable at this point.

by 4dizzle on May 9, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

I think those pitchers are somewhat risky, but those are three position players I’d love to speculate on, and all play a premium position (two 3B and a CF).

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mostly Agree

Instead of Spanenberg, I would really love to see the Jays take a High upside Highschool arm like Michael Kelly to pair with Aaron Sanchez. Also, it may be nit picking but I really like Carpenter much more then Conley, but apples and oranges I guess. Other then that this just shows what kind of haul teams like the Rays and Jays could be reaping in.

by Brando159 on May 9, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Spangenberg

is a dark horse, and he’s been rising. I like Kelly, but he is a work in progress, more projectability than polish. Spangenberg, as John says, is a pure hitter, and a nice guy to get with multiple picks.

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see your point

Its just whenever I see a short 3rd baseman and the Jays I always start to think about Kevin Ahrens. Ahrens isn’t 5,8 like Corey is, but Im still skepitcal. I have to say though that anyone out of highschool is a work in progress and Kelly has the upside of a #2 starter while already hitting the mid 90’s while Spanenberg seems like a late rising helium guy. Regardless it should be interesting if the Jays go all hitters in the early picks as opposed to last years strategy.

by Brando159 on May 10, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ahrens

was a heart breaker though. That was a heckuva swing for a h.s. kid. Kelly has upside, but he really does need a lot more polish. he and Maples both have big arms but a long way to go in harnessing them.

by blackoutyears on May 10, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ahrens is hitting OK so far this year.

Maybe he’s finally putting it together?

by Vlad on May 25, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rays

I would be satisfied. I would like a little more upside with the early picks, but it is a good draft. Armstrong was a nice pick.

by mr. maniac on May 9, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed for the most part

I love Cron and Purke, and seeing a mock where Jungmann falls like that gets me excited even if its not the best fit. I don’t love Stephenson there, I’m wary of guys who shoot up boards due to recently-developing velo readings, but if we switched the Cron and Stephenson picks I would be fine with Stephenson there or in the supplemental. I like Michael as well.

by Navi's_Navy on May 9, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stephenson's velo

hasn’t really jumped though. He was pumping 94 at 2010 summer events and his improvements have been in his secondaries with velo similar to last year’s. I’d love for my team to go after him.

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't like the Levi Michael pick at all.

With Hak Ju Lee, he really isn’t needed. Doesn’t seem like a “Rays pick”.

by mr. maniac on May 9, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree 100%

My take is a bit further down.

by BurGi on May 9, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the D-backs find a way to get a position player with one of their three top picks.

Plenty of college arms in the system with back-end starter potential. Sure, Hultzen and Barnes aren’t those type of guys, but with Brewer, Anderson, Belfiore, Miley, etc., there are back-end college arms to be found. The guy you have picked right afterward, McCann, makes sense for AZ. Thin catching in that system.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on May 9, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Noooooo Sickels don’t make me so excited about the Jays draft, it’s still too far away to get so excited!

I think the Blue Jays should draft the best player available, obviously. But if it isn’t too clear who the best player on the board is, they should go for hitters. (Middle) infielders, most of all. The system is already loaded with all kinds of catchers, outfielders and pitchers. But if, like McGuire and Sanchez last year, a good pitcher drops, yeah they’ll take that guy no question.

I think they’ll mostly stay away from hitters who don’t play good defense and project to be a 1B or LF.

by Woodman663 on May 9, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Mets

McCann seems like a big overdraft in the supplemental round. Not sure if JD could handle a Stilson/McCann tandem.

Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus

by Jeff Reese on May 9, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions  

"Not sure if JD could handle a Stilson/McCann tandem."

Yeah, it’s a suicide watch if that goes down, and I like both those guys. lol

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

mccann

I like McCann…love the defense and I’m studying the bat. he’s hitting well this year.

by John Sickels on May 9, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sold on the bat

He’s a solid prospect given his defense, but I have a hard time seeing him as a supplemental talent.

Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus

by Jeff Reese on May 9, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

well.

well….i can understand that. But even if you doubt his bat, he’s basically Jason Castro who went in the first round., and given the relative lack of catchers with a chance to hit….I can see him in the supplemental.

It all comes down to if you believe in the bat or not.

by John Sickels on May 9, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

He’s like a lesser version of Susac for me, and you bank that he’ll hit enough. I tend to focus on catchers and shortstops who can hit as there’s a year-to-year scarcity, but I know that’s not always a popular stance, especially in the context of a draft as deep as this one. I think it’s mostly the proposition of emerging from the first round and supp with only a risky starter (Stilson) and catcher with a ceiling of every day regular (McCann) in a deep draft that rankles the Mets fan. I mean, in a vacuum, with the talent available, is any team thrilled with those two names as their haul?

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rays

I think this is not optimal for the Rays (while, looking at the haul: WOW!). I’ll go pick by pick (with the players still on the board when you made your selections):
 
1) 24 Stephenson could easily be there at 31, 32 or 38. I would have taken Derek Fisher there.
2) 31 I love your C.J. Cron pick. Exactly what the Rays need. An advanced power/polish 1B prospect.
3) 32 I really don’t like the Levy pick. I think the Rays will go with high upside athletes on batters and with a good mix on pitching. I’d have taken Anthony Meo there.
4) 38 Brandon Nimmo. I simply like him and he sounds like a Rays pick (Northwest, athletic, excellent potential). I don’t think they’ll have the money for Purke.
5) 41 I’m okay with the Trevor Story pick.
6) 42 Michael Kelly. I even like him more than Stephenson.
7) 52 I don’t think they like Cone? I think they like Ryan Carpenter. Good high ceiling project out of college. The Rays already drafted him before.
8) 56 Travis Harrison. The Rays need power.
9) 59 Jack Armstrong. I love this pick there. I had him going to the Rays at 56 on my board. You could be completely right. He could thrive in the Rays system (as a starter).
10) 60 The Rays won’t take a RP that high. How about a nice project like Travis Radke?

That’d be some athletic, very high ceiling outfielders (Fisher, Nimmo), some power bats (C.J. Cron, Harrison) and another shortstop who can stick there (Story). On the pitching side that’s 3 high ceiling college arms (Meo, Carpenter, Armstrong) and 2 HS picks with tremendous upside (Kelly, Radke).

by BurGi on May 9, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions  

response

I thought about Fisher (and Goodwin) at 24 for the Jays, but decided to go with a high-upside pitcher. Cron, yeah, we agree. Levi…well, you can’t have too many infielders, and he should be affordable, which is an issue with this many picks. But I can see Meo.

Nimmo at 38…sure. Agree that Story seems like a Ray. Kelly…could see that. Carpenter makes sense since they do have a history there. Harrison..I dunno, you already have Cron under this scenario, and the consensus seem to be that Harrison will end up at 1B. Armstrong, yeah. Zych was another pick for money reasons.

by John Sickels on May 9, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

combine

How about this, combining my picks and yours?

Stephenson HS RHP
Cron College 1B
Meo College RHP
Nimmo HS OF
Story HS SS
Boyd HS RHP
Carpenter College LHP
Gaines HS SS
Armstrong College RHP
Radke HS LHP

by John Sickels on May 9, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

peope are underestimating Levi Michael. Admittedly it’s tough to rate him perfectly — his future position is in doubt as well as his power — but he’s a very good player, and is actually younger than usual due to early enrollment at UNC. I wonder if the Pads will be in on him at 25? He’s their type of player as an up-the-middle defender with good pitch recognition and gap power. Wong fits that profile too.

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

question for combine by john sickels

who’s Gaines and who’s Radke? and where do you see them going? are those 10 the first ten picks for the ray’s or what?

by draftguru on May 11, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Armstrong

I definitely like that connection as well. Armstrong has very big stuff and he could thrive in a system like Tampa Bay’s.

Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus

by Jeff Reese on May 9, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah,

we were talking about this the other day. A good get of an underrated college arm a la Jake Thompson.

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Travis radke?

I’m slightly new to all this and recognize most the names but who’s travis radle? and when you show the 1-10 are talking rounds? and what does the # 60 mean after 10?

by draftguru on May 11, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

What excites me

What excites me is that some of these teams (Nats, Rays, D-backs) with multiple picks might have the ability to draft MORE THAN ONE of these top end college arms. That means some teams may have two or more of these guys ready to move into their rotations within the next two years. Talk about changing the balance of power within their divisions.

by samjjones on May 9, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Padres

If the Padres make it through the comp round with neither a SS nor a catcher, but another questionable 3B, I’m going to be pretty grumpy.

I know that positional drafting is a bad idea, but I’m not sold on Springer at #10 and I’m not sold on him for an organization that already has more outfielders – not to mention guys who can’t play infield like Rincon/Darnell/Forsythe – than anything else.

by realitypolice on May 9, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

fair enough

fair enough, although I like Buechele.

Who would you like instead of Springer?

by John Sickels on May 9, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure if you're speaking on his talent or not

But from a strictly talent standpoint, George Springer fits perfectly fine in the top 10. He’s made a lot of progress in making contact this year and has outstanding tools. The bat speed is just absurd.

Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus

by Jeff Reese on May 9, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've only seen him twice

And it was early in the year at Storrs (read REALLY F’IN COLD), so I’m not sure how good of an indicator it was, but I wasn’t too excited about his pitch recognition which translates to contact.

In terms of going a different route, even with signability in that slot, I’d be tempted to go with Swihart at 10 and Levi (for exactly the reasons you listed for the Rays) at their normal pick, then pitching, pitching, pitching in the Supp.

by realitypolice on May 9, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree on the Jays

I don’t see the Jays going this heavy on college guys

by The_Bunk on May 9, 2011 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Which I realize sounds absurd considering it’s not all that heavy but I don’t them taking guys like Conley and Spangenburg when guys like Michael Kelly and Joe Ross are still on the board.

by The_Bunk on May 9, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do like

Kelly and Ross over Conley, but probably because I’m not wild about guys with a lot of funk in their delivery. Conley has a lot to recommend him though, and there’s a quicker return with him.

by blackoutyears on May 9, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nats

Like what you’ve done for the Nats. I think they’ll definitely get one of the College arms with their first pick and would be happy for Jungmann to fall to them as well. With Bradley still on the board in the supplemental round and no CF of the future in there farm system it’d be hard for them to pass on Bradley there.

by mwyche on May 9, 2011 4:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree strongly that the perfect Nats draft would be two arms and a CF. I think it will be very hard to pass on taking two pitchers in the first round, so you’re ultimately left taking the best available hitter to give balance to the top of your draft.

If I’m the Nats, I’m looking for anything up the middle in preference over potential corner outfielders. If you’ve got Harper and Werth occupying corner OF spots long term, it’d be hard for me to choose another unless I’m getting a prospect I think is a whole tier better than the CF/2B/SS prospects that are hanging out at 34.

by Tromni on May 12, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Red Sox

I tend to be more of a high upside HS prospects kind of guy but Thats entirely possible. If Sussac grades out as the best player on their board they’ll take him, if he doesn’t they won’t, even with the perceived lack of catching prospects in the system. They have shown us that they won’t reach for a catcher, multiple times passing on guys projected as the best catching prospects in a given year, 2009 was a perfect example passing on Stassi, Myers and Bailey multiple times despite the reports that they liked Myers and were poised to draft a catcher.

With the Red Sox I really don’t have clue as to what they are thinking. In some draft they go more HS heavy then in another more college heave early.

Their strategy is “Diversified our portfolio” thats how they describe what does having multiple picks in the draft gives them.

by DominicanDandy on May 9, 2011 5:45 PM EDT reply actions  

The Sox have the best mock draft going so far, IMO. It will be interesting to see what kind of a haul the Rays pickers come up with to battle back against their division rival.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on May 9, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boston is in a nice spot (from a Rays fan).

It looks like the Rays are in the area where they won’t get an elite player, while Boston will get one. Even if the Rays top pick was two spots higher, they would be MUCH better off.

by mr. maniac on May 9, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the Rays could sign Purke for the right amount

I’m all for that pick. And I don’t really know much about some of the HS guys, but I would be excited about this draft just from Cron, Cone, Armstrong, and Purke! What’s the scouting report on stephenson though, I’ve never heard of him.

No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.

by thedudeofdudes on May 9, 2011 7:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Stephenson

Ideal pitcher’s build at 6’3-4", long-limbed, strong frame with very good projectability. FB routinely hits 93/94 and command of his secondaries, especially the breaking ball, is reportedly much improved. The delivery needs smoothing, and there’s some effort, but nothing too alarming. Tougher to gauge than some other h.s. arms as NorCal comp isn’t generally top-notch, but he’s had some dominant starts this year.

by blackoutyears on May 10, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Perfect Game on Stephenson

Here’s PG’s take on Stephenson today from their excellent 50 in 50 series:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5613

by blackoutyears on May 10, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rays have been linked to Purke

and Dr. James Andrews (you know, Purke’s doctor) is also the Rays doctor. Makes a lot of sense to me.

by AndrewTorrez on May 10, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you see the Rays taking a couple of tough signability picks

so that if they don’t sign all of the 2011 picks they could carry some of them over to 2012? They could offer a couple of HS guys a take it or leave it offer knowing they would compensated in next year’s draft.

by daveyork on May 9, 2011 11:13 PM EDT reply actions  

this class is so much deeper than 2012's is projected to be

So that strikes me as a non-optimal use of the picks. Everything I’ve read suggests that the Rays are taking this seriously (one report had Andrew Friedman calling this the “future of the franchise draft”) and have budgeted accordingly. That’s not to say they’re going to hand out overslot bonuses on every pick, but I think they’re going to take the BPA a lot more than people think, and may even go for a flier like Purke.

by AndrewTorrez on May 10, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

It makes way more sense to grab every upside guy they can and I can’t think of a better allocation of resources than going for broke in this draft. Props to the Rays’ FO for putting themselves in such a fantastic position.

by blackoutyears on May 10, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

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