2011 Mock Draft, Mark II: Supplemental Round
Continuing with a Mock 2011 Draft, with the Supplemental First Round. Obviously there is a huge amount of educated guessing with this.
34) Nationals (Dunn): Dwight Smith, OF, Georgia HS: I have the Nats going with Trevor Bauer and Brian Goodwin in the first round, but Smith's pure hitting skills still look attractive to me, and there is nice symmetry with one college, one JC, and one high school guy at the top.
35) Blue Jays (for Scott Downs): Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, South Carolina: No change from last time.
36) Red Sox (Martinez): Austin Hedges, C, California HS: I had Anthony Meo here last time, but the Red Sox have a strong interest in Hedges and he should fall this far.
37) Rangers (Lee): Blake Swihart, C, New Mexico HS: Good athlete with strong bat, shouldn't fall much further than this even with positional questions. Signability is the big question for Swihart but for now I will assume this is posturing. I had Dillon Howard here last time but he's already gone in this mock.
38) Rays (Soriano): Matthew Purke, LHP, TCU: No change from last time, and for the same reasons: You draft him, see how his arm responds, then see if you really want him. At worst you've used up one of your huge number of picks and get compensated next year.
39) Phillies (for Jayson Werth): Brandon Nimmo, OF, Wyoming HS: No change. Nimmo has the toolset that attracts the Phillies. He also has a reported price tag in excess of $2 million, but the Phillies have paid money for tools before.
40) Red Sox (Beltre) Anthony Meo, RHP, Coastal Carolina: Meo slots better here than earlier. Previous choice was Jason Esposito but his stock has slipped a tad.
41) Rays (Crawford): Granden Goeztman, OF, Florida HS. Still a plethora of attractive options, but we'll go with the fast-rising toolsy Florida prep. I had Trevor Story here in the first mock but his stock is up.
42) Rays (for Grant Balfour): Hudson Boyd, RHP, Florida HS: Local talent with supplemental first-round ability and should still be signable here. No change from last time.
43) Diamondbacks (for Adam LaRoche): Henry Owens, LHP, California HS: Highest ceiling arm left on the board. I had Andrew Chafin here last time but his stock is up.
44) Mets (for Pedro Feliciano): Josh Bell, OF, Texas HS: If the Mets are serious about putting more money into the draft, here is their chance. Bell says he won't sign, but if the Mets dangle enough $$ in front of him, plus a nice presentation about how cool it would be to play in New York, that might change. A similar choice would be Pennsylvania HS outfielder Derek Fisher, another strong bat with a college commitment that would be expensive, but perhaps not impossible, to buy off.
45) Rockies (for Octavio Dotel): Aaron Westlake, 1B, Vanderbilt: Becomes heir apparent to Todd Helton. Stock of previous pick Phil Evans has dropped.
46) Blue Jays (for John Buck):. Keenyn Walker, OF, Central Arizona JC: May seem a stretch, but Walker has terrific tools including blazing speed, has refined his swing this year, and has some helium. I think he can get into the supplemental round, and a team with multiple picks should be attracted.
47) White Sox (for J.J. Putz): Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State: The White Sox are tough to predict. I had fireballer J.R. Graham here last time but he sounds like a second or third round pick now. The Sox had good luck with a college lefty from Florida last year, so let's try that again.
48) Padres (for Jon Garland): Michael Kelly, RHP, Florida HS: No change from last time. Still seems plausible.
49) Giants (for Juan Uribe): Amir Garrett, LHP, Nevada HS. You want upside? Garrett has upside. I have no idea if he'll go this high in real life and the Giants are hard to predict, but he'd make a nice upside pairing with Ross. I had Jorge Lopez last time but he's gone in this mock.
50) Twins (for Orlando Hudson): Grayson Garvin, LHP, Vanderbilt. No change. Still makes sense. Combining him with Anderson would be a nice one-two college southpaw punch.
51) Yankees (for Javier Vazquez): Williams Jerez, OF, Brooklyn HS: I had another local product, New Jersey prep Kevin Comer, here in the last mock, but Jerez's stock is rising and he's linked with the Yankees.
52) Rays (for Brad Hawpe): Kes Carter, OF, Western Kentucky. I had toolsy Zach Cone here last time, but scouts are doubting his bat. Carter has good tools himself and a much better performance record.
53) Blue Jays (for Kevin Gregg): Michael Fullmer, RHP, Oklahoma HS: Impressive arm who would be a first-round pick in some classes. Pick in the last mock was Adam Conley.
54) Padres (for Yorvit Torrealba): Kyle Winkler, RHP, TCU: All sorts of options here, but we'll go with the TCU ace who emerged in the wake of Purke's health problems. I had Joe Ross here in the last mock but he's gone.
55) Twins (for Jesse Crain): Jake Hager, SS, Nevada HS: Gamer-type with underrated tools who can stick at shortstop. Seems like someone the Twins would like. Stock of previous pick Ryan Carpenter is down a bit.
56) Rays (for Joaquin Benoit): Dillon Maples, RHP, North Carolina HS: Another high-upside player. Previous choice was high school gloveman Julius Gaines.
57) Blue Jays (for Miguel Olivo): Joe Panik, SS, St. John's. He might have to move to second, but otherwise he looks great to me. I had Maples here previous.
58) Padres (for Kevin Correia): Brad Miller, SS, Clemson: On-base machine with defensive questions, but even at second base he'd be an asset. Previous pick Garrett Buechele would fit better in third or fourth round.
59) Rays (for Randy Choate): Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford: Need some college pitching to balance the other picks. Reed could advance fast in bullpen but is also capable of being converted to starter. I had Jack Armstrong here previously but you can get him in later rounds.
60) Rays (for Chad Qualls): Tyler Marlette, C, Florida HS: You have to have someone to catch all the pitching, and Martlette is promising on both offense and defense. Previous choice was Tony Zych.
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Not sure the Jays would go with 4/5 position players (with the only arm being a prep arm). Unless you think that as a result of how pitching heavy they went last year that they’ll go equally heavy with the bats this year.
Personally I would think that they or the Sox would grab Purke at 35/36.
I think Jays will do pretty much the same thing they did last year. Take a bunch of arms, mix of college and high schoolers with good upside and infielders (mainly down the middle). There are some attractive outfielders as well so I am sure they will try to pick a few of them as well.
by Sniderlover on May 30, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets
I don’t see any way the Mets draft anyone that has a large bonus demand attached to them. Any talk of them being willing to spend money is lip service to appease the NY fans/media.
by GoldenSpikes24 on May 30, 2011 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
I don't know about that.
DePodesta and Alderson have said multiple times since being hired by the Mets that it’s going to be a priority to draft well and to go overslot on talent they like. Obviously we won’t know until the draft actually happens and these guys get signed but I’m trusting their word considering they’ve stressed multiple times how important it is to the future health and success of the organization. Not to mention that the team is about to get $200 million from the new minority owner, $100 million of that which is earmarked for baseball operations.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on May 30, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Don’t know if they will but I bet they are going to make a splash to upgrade the system and shut everyone up about the lack of finances.
by thehitonecafe on May 30, 2011 1:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
maybe
For the Mets fans sake I hope they can, but I don’t see it happening the next couple years.
They are going to lose 70 million dollars this season. They already have all but said they are not going to reinvest the money freed up by this years FA’s. Their franchise value has declined 13% according to Forbes. Even with 200 million coming in from a minority partner, they have a 25 million dollar loan they need to repay to MLB next month, another 75 will be used to pay off some of the 400 million dollar bank debt. They have 12 million dollars in payroll to meet every 2 weeks. The new money will help them stabilize for the next year or so, its not money they are going to go out and spend.
My thought is they will draft signable players and tell everyone those are the guys that they really wanted.
by GoldenSpikes24 on May 30, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Of the $200 million coming in, half of that will be used for debt
The other $100 million will be used for operations.
The value of the franchise is irrelevant because it neither effects revenues nor expenditures.
The total of the debt is also not relevant because the debt service is already built into the operating budget. After the deficit is covered, which might be $70 million (it might also be less,) no additional money will be needed this year to cover debt.
Stating that “its not money they are going to go out and spend” is pure speculation on your part. The Mets have repeatedly stated that they will go over slot, and that has been stated as recently as last month.
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"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
truth
not too long ago the Mets were also telling everyone that the Madoff situation was going to have no impact on the team, we know now that wasn’t the truth, I wouldn’t be too quick to buy into anything they have to say.
by GoldenSpikes24 on May 30, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure but
not too long ago, there was no lawsuit hanging over the owners’ heads either. Circumstances change, especially when the owners are getting sued for a billion dollars.
Alderson and DePodesta have both recently (last month) stated that they will go overslot. Circumstances do change, but they seem to be pretty confident in their ability to pay up. It’s tough to trust what comes out of the Wilpons’ mouths these days but I have trust in Sandy and DePo.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on May 30, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It was the truth
Then Picard filed a lawsuit that tries to get far more money than what was anticipated. I suggest that you read up about the Mets and the Madoff lawsuit. It is clear that you have not done so.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Mets finances
The Wilpons finances may be in bad shape (especially if their commercial real estate portfolio is hurting), but I suspect the team itself isn’t in bad shape as people think. They are running loses, but not more than you would expect from a team that has been running a top 3 payroll in recent years while playing sub .500 ball. Moreover, most of the losses on the team’s books are probably offset by the profits on the books of SNY.
The big question might be how confident they are in this investment deal going through. If they are confident in that, then that investment, plus over $50M likely coming off the payroll after this season, might give them a willingness to be aggressive.
One thing they won’t want to happen is what happened to the Marlins, who blew up a team back in 1998, trading a number of popular players. You could argue that this worked for the Marlins, who eventually won another World Series in 2003. But the fans never came back. Attendance never fully recovered.
If the Mets are likely going to be parting with Beltran and K-Rod, and possibly even Reyes, I suspect that they will want to do everything else they possibly can to prove to fans that they have some kind of plan to compete in the future.
Isin’t there a $200M civil lawsuit hanging over their heads? I believe they are being sued for return of moneys that Madoff paid them during his ponzi scheme days. That’s a huge payout that they have to budget for.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
It's the Wilpons who are being sued, not the team.
The suit by Madoff trustee Irving Picard actually totals nearly 1 billion dollars but if he gets probably even half of that, I’d imagine the Wilpon family would have to sell (most likely to the new minority owner David Einhorn). While it may effect the team initially and during the ownership transition, it most likely shouldn’t have a huge impact on the club. They still get big revenues from SNY (though Einhorn doesn’t have a stake in SNY at the moment, but that could change) and if the product on the field improves some, they’ll draw fans and make revenue there. They also have some big debt leftover, but I’m not sure if that’s in the team’s name or in the Wilpons’ name.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on May 31, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
It's $1 billion
They can’t budget for it. If they have to pay $1 billion, the Mets get sold. If it was just $200 million, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
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"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
I know the media has been covering this story as if the Mets are searching the couch cushions for pennies
…but there’s no reason to believe the team would actually operate that way. The Mets’ owners have been in financial trouble for quite a while, but the team itself is not a piggy bank, it’s a business with revenues, a budget, etc.
I guarantee Sandy Alderson has had a budget for the draft for months, and that budget includes some money for overslot deals if necessary. I expect that even the Wilpons understand that they can’t possibly solve their massive financial problems by raiding the draft budget for a couple million dollars; it would be a drop in the bucket that would do nothing whatsoever except hurt their team’s long-term value.
Dillon Maples...
Anyone out there curious about him as a 3B?
Wet dream
If the Mets actually got Josh Bell here that would and paid him I would be the happiest fan in the world
David Einhorn
This is a guy that will do what it takes to win. He is a brilliant hedge fund manager and a very competitive person to boot. The Mets could not have gotten a better possible new owner.
Joe Panik
Really doesn’t seem like an Anthopolous pick
would be Extremely happy if Jakie Bradley Jr fell to us in the jays position.
This is a guy with top 20 talent.
+1
If we get Baez and Bradley Jr with our first 2 picks this draft is a massive win already. Should this happen I wouldn’t be surprised to see AA go pitcher with the next few picks.
Great Value
All over this supplemental round. Would be interesting to see the Mets land Josh Bell there, and even more so if they spent the money to get him signed.
I’ve seen Purke linked to the Rays since the injury, and still believe he can be the steal of this draft.
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Phillies
They love tools but they love people who take the recommended slot bonus with their first couple of picks more. Doubt they will go overslot on Nimmo
Yankees at 51
With Piliere saying that they are looking at Goeddel, who do you think would be better pick at 51? Jerez or Goeddel? And who would have a better shot of falling to 88?
Dropping because he’s one of the toughest signs in the draft and didn’t have a strong senior season, thats my guess.
by DominicanDandy on May 30, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Padres
The collection of Barnes/Susac/Kelly in the first three slots would make me very happy. If the board shapes up that way, I wouldn’t be shocked if they went Maples if he was still there at that 54th pick and then opted for whichever of the SS was still there at 58.
I really hope the Twins at 50 and the Rays at 52 don’t take a guy the Padres are high on as that would quite the lasting kick in the nuts for those free agent signings…

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