Dylan Bundy vs. Archie Bradley
by deezle on May 26, 2011 9:44 AM EDT
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PrintI'm interested to get the community's thoughts on these two. In some ways they are very similar, but in other ways they are drastically different.
As most know by now, Bundy and Bradley are arguably the two best prep pitching prospects in the draft class this year (arguments could also be made for Taylor Guerreri and Daniel Norris). Both pitchers are from the Tulsa, OK area and have competed against each other for years. They came into the season about even in the eyes of scouts, but most believe Bundy has pulled ahead of the pack with an outstanding senior season.
Bundy is about 6'1" with a sturdy, athletic build. His velo ticked up this year, and reportedly he is now sitting 94-97 and topping out at 100. His secondary stuff is also great - he works in a plus cutter, plus curve, and average change. Most seem to think he could fly through a minor league system assuming no setbacks.
Bradley is a more projectable 6'4", and is a bit lankier than Bundy. Like Zach Lee last year, he has a commitment to play QB at a powerhouse football school (Oklahoma) that provides him some interesting leverage. He velo was at 92-95 before his senior season, but was inconsistent early on. However, he took his game up a notch as the season went on, and Jim Callis noted that he might have more helium than any other 1st round-caliber pick right now. Reports indicate he touched 101 in the state championship. He mixes in a plus curve and supposedly has nice feel for a change.
I don't really have a conclusion here, just some random thoughts:
- How likely is it that Bundy's stuff ticks down throwing 200 IP in a season? His stuff jumped up this year, but he also had a very light workload (only went over 85 pitches in two games). Recall there were some concerns about his workload last year, and it seems like his coach/family took extra precaution this year.
- If Bradley is now pumping it up into the upper 90's, why is he not at least on par with Bundy? He is more projectable and likely has greater athleticism, allowing him to more easily repeat his delivery as he goes through the minors.
- Since Bradley has only given baseball half his commitment level due to football, how much more could his game tick up by giving it his full commitment? Basically, if they are both comparable now, does Bradley's upside push him ahead?
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Bradley is more of a work in progress
He has a big fastball and a very good curve, but he’s been inconsistent this spring and doesn’t really throw a third pitch in game. Bundy is commanding 4 pitches that show plus potential. The lack of size is really the only knock against him and even that isn’t much of a concern. The second hand reports are that scouts think Bundy is a more impressive pitching prospect than Taillon: similar stuff but more command. They aren’t all that comparable right now. Bradley has a ton of upside and I’m high on him; he’s just not on the same tier as Bundy or Taillon.
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Right
Bundy’s present stuff is great, but my concern is his stuff dropping with the additional workload. There’s a reason that there aren’t that many successful pitchers that are 6’1" or shorter. Can he really hold mid 90’s velo over a 200 IP season?
Meanwhile, Bradley is much more physical and projectable, and may be just at the tip of the iceberg of what he’s capable of. He seems more likely to be a horse that can give you 200+ IP year in and year out. His improvement as the season has gone on has impressed me.
Bundy has handled a heavy workload well in the past
He’s lauded as having tremendous present strength, a very rigorous workout regimen and his delivery is one of the smoothest I’ve seen from a HS pitcher. 6’1"/205 isn’t ideal but I don’t think it’s an issue either.
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Re; Bundy's projection.
One scout put it best while comparing him to Taillon…
"He’s not as big or as projectable, but what do you have to project?"
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
durability
None of these guys are terribly valuable unless you expect that they can throw 175-225 IP per year. Year after year.
Now whether Bundy’s or Bradley’s physical attributes have much to add to the likelihood that either can do that, I don’t know.
I’m not sure anybody does, but betting on the bigger, better athlete isn’t ureasonable imo.
Have you seen Bundy?
He may not be as big as Deck McGuire, but is sure as hell as strong as him.
He has such a great build that durability should not be any concern with him.
The kid is a workout warrior and I am pretty sure he has an outstanding long tossing routine that is upwards of 300 feet, which in my opinion helps a great deal with pitchers being arm strength and durability.
Bradley
In BA’s latest podcast, John Manual stated that Bradley does not have a football scholarship to Oklahoma. His scholarship offer is for baseball. He may still qualify as a two-sport athlete though, as he is a highly regarded football recruit.
That's incorrect.
He signed his LOI for OU football in early February. He does indeed have a scholarship there. The reason you hear about the baseball scholarship now is because he just signed a LOI with their baseball team on the 9th of May.
He has standing offers for both sports.
Signing a LOI does not mean he has a scholarship
OU may be offering the baseball scholarship as a way to “protect” the football team in case he decides to go pro in baseball. And if he does go to college, the football team has one extra scholarship to use.
In the end it is moot… I see no scenario where Bradley actually goes to college.
They would have to think he doesn't have a realistic chance of contributing in Football
if he takes the baseball scholarship. It makes a difference on when he can be present with the football team if he is on a baseball scholarship. It was put in place to keep schools from stashing more football players on other scholarships ie track or baseball.
Doesn't work that way. If you have a two way player, they have to be on scholarship to the sport that has more, which obviously is football.
Miami used to put football players on track scholarships and I’m sure other schools exploited this as well so it was stopped by the NCAA.
Tools Whore
I'm skeptical of Bundy...
I do worry about his complete lack of projectability. He’s someone who’s worked his ass off to be where he’s at today, but it makes me wonder about burn out in the future. I also think his arm slot can get a little flat. I also usually look for a natural looseness in shorter pitchers, and my opinion is that he’s a little stiff. He reminds me more of Chad Billingsley than a super stud HS pitching prospect (not that Chad Billingsley is bad). It seems like nowadays theres an obligation to crown a HS kid as the next big thing, and this year I don’t think I buy it so much with Bundy.
I hope he shuts me up though, because at the beginning of the year he was probably my favorite HS pitcher.
Bradley I like a little more right now. He’s just a bigger and better athlete.
Bundy represents the least skepticism I've ever had for a HS pitcher.
There’s a reason he’s being mentioned in the same breath with Cole, Bauer, and Hultzen. BA also now has him ranked as the top pitcher in the draft.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I was less skeptical about...
both Kershaw and Porcello in recent drafts.
Considering the payoff on those two
it’s fair to say it’s a 50/50 proposition in terms of who merits skepticism. I’m not skeptical of Bundy at all. He just has a good chance of breaking down or losing stuff like any young pitcher.
by blackoutyears on May 26, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And how could I forget...
Shelby Miller. That’s one of my favorites because unlikely Kershaw/Porcello he wasn’t the de facto #1 HS arm that year.
That was a special year
Miller, Turner and Wheeler are all developing nicely, while Matzek and Purke have struggled with command issues and injuries respectively but have also shown above average ability. It was hard to stand out in that class.
by blackoutyears on May 27, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Forgot Matzek...
whom I think will be a fine pitcher in time.
It is worth mentioning that Bundy's older brother...
…who is of a similar size and build held up well over 116 innings last season in the Sally, and has been lights out while averaging nearly 5 2/3 innings per start in the Carolina League this season. I don’t want to read too much into it, as the older Bundy is only 21 and only has 213 pro innings, but Bobby indicates that Dylan is unlikely to break down quickly.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You don't need to project because he's a HS kid built like a college player.
It’s a case of, “what you see is what you get,” and that isn’t always a bad thing, especially when you can see what you’ve got and they’re only 18 years old.
by bdlugz on May 26, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Projection is more of a negative for Bundy
True, his present stuff is already electric, so you don’t need to project him to have stuff that will play in the majors.
But how likely is it that his stuff sticks like this over 200IP seasons, year after year? Isn’t it a little concerning that there just aren’t that many starters 6’1" or shorter that have had long, successful careers?
I guess I just wonder if we’re seeing Bundy’s best, and he has nowhere to go but down now.
Peavy, Pedro, Lincecum, Oswalt, Hampton
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Since 2000
of the top 100 WAR (fangraphs) starters, 28 are listed at 6’1" or under.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
by Kerm on May 26, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Link?
Fascinating if true – I never would have guessed it would have been that high.
No link
Just checked the heights of every pitcher that I knew was on the shorter side (ie I didn’t double check Randy Johnson etc.) If you throw in 6’2" (as listed heights are often rounded up) the number jumps to 38%.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Thanks for being less lazy than me!
I thought about doing something similar the other day because I wasn’t sold on the argument that short guys have trouble over the long haul, but then lethargy kicked in and I decided to have a beer instead! (To my credit, it was Great Divide’s oak-aged Yeti, so it was hard to pass up…)
If anyone else is feeling less lazy than me, I’d guess that overall, far fewer than 28% of pitchers in MLB are listed at 6’1" or less… can someone verify that?
by realitypolice on May 27, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey, no problem. Took me only about 10 minutes.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
no projection and no place to go
I agree, Bundy has perhaps reached his apex capability and would be the lesser of the two. Bradley seems like the best choice.
Reg Moore
"By mid-19th century, baseball's inventor, Alexander Cartwright and others made sure the game had rules, many of which are still in play today.
In 1845 Cartwright drew up plans for a baseball field, and a year later the Elysian Fields in Hoboken, New Jersey became home to the first recorded baseball game."
"The earliest baseballs were very lightweight and soft, were smaller than the modern baseball, and were made of yarn or string surrounding a core covered by a single piece of leather stitched together." http://baseball.epicsports.com/baseball-history.html
Injury due to his build
Not that all pitchers with his build have injuries, but it’s been proven to be an issue for a lot of starting pitchers over the years.
I'd be more worried
if he had Harden’s delivery. Who else fits this build that you can think of, Hank?
by blackoutyears on May 26, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Mr. T
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
And does this mean
that whichever team drafts him is going to have to either travel by van or sedate him when they have to fly?
by blackoutyears on May 27, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't see injury...
I see just his velocity evening out as he ages and learns to pitch 200 innings. The guy I keep thinking of with Bundy is Billingsley.
He is only 18
and even if he works out hard, he should be able to put another 10 pounds of muscle easy once he gets into a pro organization. 6’1 215 is not small, not the tallest pitcher, but if he is athletic (which he is said to be) he will have a very solid build.
The athleticism...
doesn’t strike me as a standout attribute, but he’s probably above average by pitcher standards right now.
Athleticism
He’s a superb athlete actually. If he went to college he’d be an outstanding two-way player. He got excellent reviews as a defender at 3B, he hit well over .400 with power this year, and there’s a rumor I’ve seen in a couple of different places that the Rays are actually interrsted in him as a SS. He takes excellent care of himself, already following the diet and workout regimen of a pro athlete. I don’t think his athleticism is an issue to be honest.
by blackoutyears on May 27, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Since when does Bundy need projection?
The guy already has a few plus pitches and throws hard enough. Experience is the only thing he will need imo.
Yeah, I'm kind of shocked by the amount of support Bradley has here
I think he’s a top 10 talent, but the only thing he has on Bundy is better size.
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Right on.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I love Bradley,
and ultimately they may be pretty close in performance and value, but I take Bundy this June. Bradley seems to be a somewhat underrated pitcher for some. Two potential plus pitches, a very sound delivery, projectable build and a good feel for pitching. I still think he compares well to Karsten Whitson.
by blackoutyears on May 27, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
His curve might be better
PG rates Bradley’s curve better than Bundy’s. Bundy himself has said Bradley’s curve is the best he’s seen when it’s on.
Yeah, it is. I was being a bit general
On the whole, Bundy has better secondary stuff.
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Bradley's curve
was considered by many to be the best breaking ball in this h.s. class coming into the year, and it’s a dandy. But one plus secondary comped to at least three average to plus offerings for Bundy is no contest. I believe BA gave Bundy top marks in their Draft Tools piece: best FB, best secondaries, closest h.s. player to majors.
by blackoutyears on May 27, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
They’re friends. Just interviewed Archie. Real nice guy, gave a lot of credit to Dylan:
http://thefantasybaseballking.com/2011/05/27/the-kings-inner-circle-archie-bradley-interview/
by thefantasybaseballking on May 27, 2011 10:34 PM EDT reply actions
Yep
It was a shame that the opportunities for them to pitch against each other this year were thwarted by rain and the need for Bundy to throw 50 pitches more than expected right before the playoff game. But yeah, they’re very good friends based on multiple interviews.
Great interview. Thanks for sharing.
by blackoutyears on May 28, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
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