MOD: Nationals Recent Draft History

by Kapellmeisters on May 22, 2011 2:09 PM EDT

Washington Nationals Mock Organizational Diary
MOD Scouting Director: Keith P. (a.k.a. "Mock Rizzo")

Nationals Owner: Ted Lerner, bought club in 2006
General Manager: Mike Rizzo, became acting GM in 2009
Assistant GM: Roy Clark, hired in 2009
Scouting Director: Kris Kline, hired in 2009

This will be the third MLB draft for Mike Rizzo since he became the Nationals GM. The 50-year-old Rizzo will face a tougher challenge this year than he did in 2009 or 2010, when the Nationals had the luxury of owning the #1 overall pick and selecting consensus top prospects Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

A Chicago native, Rizzo himself was drafted out of college by the Angels in the 22nd round of the 1982 draft. He was a light-hitting infielder who lasted three seasons in the Low Minors. Rizzo then spent the next decade working as a scout for the White Sox, Red Sox, and then the Diamondbacks, who named Rizzo their Scouting Director in 2000. Rizzo held that job for 7 years - working alongside three different Diamondbacks GMs - and deserves credit for an excellent draft track record. The D-Backs had successful top picks in five straight drafts 2002-2006: Sergio Santos, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Max Scherzer. Rizzo also gets credit for drafting Carlos Quentin, Brandon Webb, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Mark Reynolds, Chris Coghlan, Micah Owings, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Hairston, Chad Tracy, Seth Smith and Chris Snyder in later rounds.

Rizzo joined the Nationals in 2006 as the assistant GM to Jim Bowden, and then he took over as GM after Bowden resigned in 2009. Rizzo's fingerprints are all over a dramatic shift in draft strategy for the Nationals - in 2006, the Nationals' first six picks were all high-schoolers. Since then, the Nats have drafted fewer high-schoolers every year, and in the 2009-2010 drafts they only drafted one high-school prospect higher than the 5th round. In 2010, the Nats only drafted two HS prospects (A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray) in the top 29 rounds.

Rizzo has earned a reputation for using early draft picks to target large, hard-throwing college pitchers. He tends to draft a lot of prospects from California universities. Based on this information, we will assume that the Nationals' 2011 draft board looks something like this:

VERY INTERESTED:
Anthony Rendon (3B, Rice)
Gerrit Cole (6'4 RHP, UCLA)
Alex Meyer (6'9 RHP, Kentucky)
Danny Hultzen (6'3 LHP, Virginia)
Jed Bradley (6'4 LHP, Georgia Tech)
Taylor Jungmann (6'6 RHP, Texas)

SOMEWHAT INTERESTED:
Matt Barnes (6'4 RHP, UConn)
Trevor Bauer (6'1 RHP, UCLA)
Sonny Gray (5'11 RHP, Vanderbilt)
Matthew Purke (6'4 LHP, TCU)

NOT INTERESTED:
Bubba Starling (OF, high school)
Francisco Lindor (SS, high school)
Dylan Bundy (6'1 RHP, high school)
Archie Bradley (6'4 RHP, high school)
Taylor Guerrieri (6'3 RHP, high school)
Daniel Norris (6'1 LHP, high school)
Tyler Beede (6'4, RHP, high school)

Team finances will not have a pronounced impact on the Nationals' selection. Owner Ted Lerner has recently demonstrated that he is willing to spend big money on big talent ($15.1 million for Strasburg, $9.9 million for Harper, $126 million for Jayson Werth.) In fact, the Nationals broke the record for most spending in both of the past two MLB drafts. This year, because it is very unlikely that the Nats will select a high-school prospect, they probably will not need to use a big contract to lure a player like Bubba Starling or Archie Bradley away from college. But this is a team that is willing and able to spend big when necessary.

2010 MLB Draft - $11.9 million budget, set record for highest in MLB draft history for any team
-Round 1, Pick #1 - Bryce Harper (OF, junior college) - $9.9 million
-Round 2, Pick #51 - Sammy Solis (LHP, college) - $1.0 million
-Round 3, Pick #83 - Rick Hague (SS, college) - $0.43 million
-Round 4, Pick #116 - A.J. Cole (RHP, HS) - $2.0 million
-Round 5, Pick #146 - Jason Martinson (SS, college) - $0.17 million
-Round 6, Pick #176 - Cole Leonida (C, college) - $0.13 million

2009 MLB Draft (Mike Rizzo's first draft as GM) - $11.5 million budget, set record for highest in MLB draft history
-Round 1, Pick #1 - Stephen Strasburg (RHP, college) - $15.1 million ($7.5 million bonus)
-Round 1, Pick #10 - Drew Storen (RHP, college) - $1.6 million
-Round 2, Pick #50 - Jeff Kobernus (2B, college) - $0.70 million
-Round 3, Pick #81 - Trevor Holder (RHP, college) - $0.20 million
-Round 4, Pick #112 - A.J. Morris (RHP, college) - $0.27 million
-Round 5, Pick #142 - Miguel Pena (LHP, HS) - did not sign
-Round 6, Pick #172 - Michael Taylor (SS, HS) - $0.13 million

2008 MLB Draft - $4.8 million draft budget
-Round 1, Pick #9 - Aaron Crow (RHP, college) - did not sign
-Round 2, Pick #55 - Destin Hood (OF, HS) - $1.1 million
-Round 3, Pick #87 - Danny Espinosa (SS, college) - $0.53 million
-Round 4, Pick #121 - Graham Hicks (LHP, HS) - $0.48 million
-Round 5, Pick #151 - Adrian Nieto (C, HS) - $0.38 million
-Round 6, Pick #181 - Paul Demny (RHP, junior college) - $0.13 million

2007 MLB Draft - $7.9 million draft budget
-Round 1, Pick #6 - Ross Detwiler (LHP, college) - $2.2 million
-Round 1-s, Pick #31 - Josh Smoker (LHP, HS) - $1.0 million
-Round 1-s, Pick #49 - Michael Burgess (OF, HS) $0.63 million
-Round 2, Pick #67 - Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, college) $0.49 million
-Round 2, Pick #70 - Jake Smolinski (3B, HS) - $0.45 million
-Round 3, Pick #100 - Steven Souza (3B, HS) - $0.35 million
-Round 4, Pick #130 - Derek Norris (C, HS) - $0.21 million
-Round 5, Pick #160 - Brad Meyers (RHP, college) - $0.15 million
-Round 6, Pick #190 - Jack McGeary (LHP, HS) - $1.8 million (!)

2006 MLB Draft - $5.4 million draft budget
-Round 1, Pick #15 - Chris Marrero (OF, HS) - $1.63 million
-Round 1, Pick #22 - Colton Willems (RHP, HS) - $1.43 million
-Round 2, Pick #59 - Sean Black (RHP, HS) - did not sign
-Round 2, Pick #70 - Stephen Englund (OF, HS) - $0.52 million
-Round 3, Pick #91 - Stephen King (SS, HS) - $0.75 million
-Round 4, Pick #121 - Glenn Gibson (LHP, HS) - $0.35 million
-Round 5, Pick #151 - Cory VanAllen (LHP, college) - $0.12 million
-Round 6, Pick #181 - Zach Zinicola (RHP, college) - $0.15 million

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Comments

last years draft for the Nats is really good

Getting Harper of course, a solid starter in Solis and the drafts biggest steal, Cole

Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic

by mathisrocks5 on May 22, 2011 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

and Robbie Ray, too

Still very early to judge 2010 draftees… but you’re right. So far, so good. Gives me more reason to believe Rizzo will repeat the same draft strategy this year.

by Kapellmeisters on May 22, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

The 2006 draft was thought to be really good also

after the first year (5 picks in the top 91). But now only Cole Kimball (12th round) has made the Bigs.

Also, Sean Black did not sign with the Nats – the Bosox called and asked him that they were thinking of drafting him and Black said, “No, I’m going to college”. Bowden neglected to do the same and wasted the pick. Black was drafted by the Yankees and signed with them 3 years later.

by VladiHondo on May 23, 2011 2:25 PM EDT reply actions