Red Sox MOD #2

by christophersgeissler on May 19, 2011 10:51 AM EDT

Apologies for not posting this earlier. This is labeled #2 because John already posted an initial MOD due to my slowness in getting this up.

This is an overview of my initial thoughts regarding draft strategy without getting into specific players. I plan to post something that talks more about specific players who may be available when I am picking and could be of interest.

Given that I have chosen the Red Sox, I am less restrained by financial considerations than some other organizations that have smaller draft budgets, or are more likely to adhere to MLB's recommended slots. While I will look to mix in some college and higher probability guys, I expect many of my picks to be higher ceiling high school types who require above slot bonuses to buy them out of college commitments, but who offer significant upside.

It is also important to note that the Red Sox have several early picks. While they lost their first round pick because they signed Carl Crawford, they still ended up with 4 picks in the top 40 (19, 26, 36, 40) due to Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre signing with other teams.

In general, I expect them to go with the best player available, though they may shy away from bat only guys (they are looking pretty good at 1B, 3B, and LF for the next several years, and they may place a premium on catching as this has been a position of need for some time. Given that the strength of this draft lies with the college pitching, it is easy to see some excellent talent of this type still there when the Red Sox make their first pick.

What do you guys think? I would love to hear what others think of this strategy and if there are specific players who you think I should be targeting.

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While I will get into specific players in a follow up post, I did want to briefly mention that Matt Purke’s progress between now and draft day merits following among Red Sox fans as there are parallels between his situation and that of Anthony Renaudo of LSU last year, who the Red Sox took with the 39th overall pick (their 3rd pick in the draft). Both pitchers came into the year thought to be high first round picks and disappointed with injuries being a major factor.

The Red Sox took Renaudo and let him prove he was healthy by dominating on the Cape before giving him a first round bonus (the largest bonus given to a college pitcher, if I remember correctly). If Purke appears to be recovering, it will be tempting to take him if he is available when I pick, especially given that I have additional picks which should offset some of the risk.

by christophersgeissler on May 19, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

2 thoughts

The Sox should be able to fully replenish the top tier of their system with those top 4 picks.

I’ve seen the comparison between Renaudo and Purke in several places over the past few weeks, and I don’t buy it at all, for the following reasons:

1. Renaudo’s issue was with his elbow while Purke’s is with his shoulder. Not only are shoulder issues much more serious than elbow issues, but most analysts have predicted that Purke’s pitching motion would cause shoulder issues ever since the days leading up to the 2009 draft, while I never saw anybody write that Renaudo’s elbow issue would be a continuing issue due to his throwing motion.

2. Renaudo was pitching for a solid month prior to the 2010 draft and had regained his velocity. Besides the elbow issue, the main reason that Renaudo fell in the draft was that his control and his downward plane had deserted him in the month leading up to the draft. Meanwhile, it appears almost certain that Purke will not pitch more than a few innings in 2 or 3 games between now and the draft (and he could pitch a lot less). That means he will have pitched at most less than 10 innings in the 5 weeks leading up to the draft.

3. Purke is a draft-eligible sophomore. He still has 2 years of eligiblity left after this draft. He’s also very cocky and confident. If he doesn’t get a bonus commensurate to what he thinks he’s worth (probably at least in the $4M range) then it will be very easy for him to not sign and return to TCU for his junior year. Renaudo had almost no leverage last year, so the BoSox were able to sign him for a very reasonable bonus.

4. The talent in this year’s draft is not only way better than last year’s, it’s also tons deeper. It would be silly for any team (except maybe the Rays) to risk a top 40 pick on Purke when there will likely be another great pitching prospect available to them.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on May 19, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

It's Ranaudo

by FI2 on May 19, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

You say Ranaudo, I say Renaudo. LOL.
Thanks for the reminder. I never can get his name right – it took me the longest time not to put a “y” as the third letter.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on May 19, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the correction on the spelling. In response to comparing Ranaudo and Purke, obviously there are plenty of differences, but I think it definitely makes sense for them to consider him with one of their supplemental picks, especially if he pitches well down the stretch (he threw three innings yesterday and put up decent numbers – I think 4 Ks, 1 BB, 1H, though I have not seen anything about his velocity or how he looked). If he continues to struggle or the medicals are concerning then yes, it makes sense to pass on him at least until a later round.

While there would likely be other good prospects available at that pick, coming into the year many thought he would be a top 5 pick and it is hard to pass up on that sort of upside. While he does have some leverage as a draft eligible sophomore, I don’t think it is a huge deal given that the new CBA brings about uncertainty about future bonuses and the worst case scenario is that the Sox get a pick next year if he fails to sign (not ideal, but hardly the end of the world).

by christophersgeissler on May 20, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

BA.com has him pitching 88-91 last night.

In any other year I’d probably agree with you, but there are so many great pitching prospects that are going to be still available at #19, and #26, due to the awesome pitching depth in this draft. Purke is going to want big $$$ no matter where he gets picked and his motion is just too conducive to continuing shoulder and arm problems, so IMO the reward just isn’t worth the risk. Any team that picks Purke has to believe that they can afford him and then they have to believe that his mechanics are not an ongoing issue – or that they can fix his mechanics going forward.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on May 20, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions