Who will have the better career? Project these SP's...
by okteds on Apr 4, 2011 10:52 PM EDT
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PrintThis started off as a fantasy related question, but since I live and breathe baseball, my interest goes much farther than that. I've seemed to target a small cluster of SP's in my dynasty leagues, and I'm curious how you'd project the the forthcoming careers of these young SP's...
Here is how I would rank them, along with a brief summary of the types of seasons I think they are reasonably capable of...I've only included WHIP and K's, as I figure the ERA and W's will fall in line respectively...
Tommy Hanson - 1.10-1.20 WHIP, 190+ K's
Brett Anderson - 1.10-1.15 WHIP, 180 K's
Jeremy Hellickson - 1.15-1.20 WHIP, 185 K's
Francisco Liriano - 1.15-1.25 WHIP, 200+ K's
Yovani Gallardo - 1.20-1.30 WHIP, 200+ K's
Gio Gonzalez - 1.20-1.30 WHIP, 185 K's
Trevor Cahill - 1.15-1.25 WHIP, 150 K's
Jaime Garcia - 1.20-1.25 WHIP, 160 K's
Bud Norris - biggest wild card here, 185+ K's but 1.40 whip?
What are your thoughts? They're all in similar phases of their careers and I think all are poised for better seasons ahead. Am I being too optimistic? Too pessimistic? Will Liriano regain the 1.00-1.10 WHIP's from his pre-Tommy John days? Will Garcia fall back to earth after what appeared at times to be smoke and mirrors, or will Duncan turn him into the next Carpenter? Will Cahill keep up his low-K surprise success? Or will his K's rise as his other numbers trail off? Is there something to Bud Norris that I'm not aware of, because those K's last year were really out of the blue....
What's your take?
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Hanson, Gallardo, Hellickson, Liriano, Anderson, Gio, Garcia, Cahill, Norris
If Liriano and Anderson are healthy they jump ahead of the safer Hellickson and for me there’s a gap before the last 4
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Actually
I’ve seen Hanson a TON and, quite honestly, the Braves will be exploring trade opportunities for him soon. Just something about him screams Chad Billingsley to me: great stuff and healthy but just never puts “it” together.
I see
Liriano
Hellickson
Hanson
Gallardo
Anderson
Gio
Cahill
Garcia
Norris
I love Liriano’s arm and think that when the control is all the way back (say, like next year) he’s gonna win a Cy Young or two.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 5, 2011 2:41 AM EDT reply actions
lol
Do you mean the Tommy Hanson that has a 3.21 ERA in his first, two big leafgue seasons and is 24, like Hellickson will be in a couple days? Id take him, and Billingsly for that matter, any day.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
me:
1. Brett Anderson
2. Gio Gonzalez
3. Yovani Gallardo
4. Tommy Hanson
5. Francisco Liriano
6. Jaime Garcia
7. Trevor Cahill
8. Jeremy Hellickson (here today but should move up there w/ Tommy Hanson range)
9. Bud Norris
10. Ivan Nova, Carlos Carrasco, Jylouis Chacin ect. ect. ect. (Chacin would actually be #6 on this list)
Nishi to Alexi = Double Play
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 5, 2011 6:21 AM EDT reply actions
Also in fantasy, I target a lot/ all of these guys as well
Except, luckily in 2 of my leagues I have Clayton Kershaw :)
Hellickson, Zach Briton, Michael Pineda are on every team i own except for 1 that i can think of…
Nishi to Alexi = Double Play
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 5, 2011 6:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Except for a couple of mistake pitches tonight Kershaw pitched another very good game
8 ks and only 1 walk, which was intentional. 17 ks 2 walks so far, great sign so far :)
Hanson
Anderson
Gallardo
Liriano
Hellickson
Garcia
Cahill
Norriss
Gonzalez
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
lol
. . .geez, does somebody like the Oakland As or something? Gallardo is pretty clearly the best pitcher on that list . . . in my opinion. I do like Gio a lot though.
Brett Anderson is great but, I worry about his health and conditioning. I love how even As fans dont seem to know what they have in Cahill. He looks dumpy looking, looks funny when he throws but, he’s almost like a knuckleballer. He reminds me of a modern day Gaylord Perry or something. He gets movement on every pitch and has a great feel for pitching.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Cahill
I always hear that same thing about guys who have lucky seasons, that they have “a great feel for pitching”. Then the next year, they seem to lose that feel. It’s odd that way, feel.
+1
Great feel for pitching often = defenders did really well behind him + he got lucky on BIP. Also, pitching in Oakland, where its really difficult to hit and you could a little league game in the foul territory helps a lot.
I suppose
… though its one thing to get lucky on balls in play for a year, and another to get grounballs on 65 percent of your balls in play. His sucess isn’t mysterious. He gets a ton of grounders and there are a ton of guys who have had sucessful careers with that profile.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
65 percent?
It’s not difficult to check your numbers. Cahill had 56% GBs last year, and 47.8% in 2009. His 2010 season was very much like Derek Lowe’s except Derek Lowe was better in virtually every repeatable category, but had a 4.00 ERA.
Ok
I play Diamond Mind baseball and on there his GBs are listed as 65% and on ESPN.com, I come to 57.3%
A couple other points. Because Lowe had a few more Ks, 2 less walks, and the same homers as Cahill doesnty make him “better”, does it? Even though Oakland be a fine place to pitch, the Nl is the NL too.
Sure Cahill was lucky but, a 4.00 ERA is GOOD.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
My take
Liriano
Gallardo
Hanson
Gio
Hellickson
Cahill
Anderson
Garcia
Norris
by Ghost_of_Brien_Taylor on Apr 5, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not going to predict WHIP because thats just silly.
Tommy Hanson will show flashes of success for the next two seasons until Tommy John surgery sidelines him for the 2013 season. He struggles for two seasons with the Braves flip-flopping between the majors and minors before being outright released after 2015. He signs a one-year contract with the Brewers and goes 18-5, 191 innings, 213 K’s, 67 bb’s and a 3.14 FIP. He parlays that into a 4-year, 62 million dollar contract with the Yankees. He wins the decisive game 6 of the 2018 World Series against the Pirates but ultimately injuries push him out of the league by age 33 and he’s a disappointment in New York.
Brett Anderson starts 2011 off in hot fashion, going 9-2 with a 2.16 ERA headed into his first All-Star game. He struggles in the 2nd half however, unable to make hitters miss bats and the A’s shut him down in September citing fatigue. He comes back strong the next season to finish 3rd in Cy Young voting after a 19-6, 2.90, 8.5 k/9, 4.2 k/bb ratio season. He follows that up with another strong year before the A’s trade him to the Rangers for a package of prospects. Anderson doesn’t find the confines of Arlington to be as cozy and has a bad first season in Texas (5.01 ERA) and he demands a trade because of all the negative vibes he gets from his new city that hates him. Texas sends Anderson to the Mets in exchange for Alex Gordon. He shuffles between ERA’s of 3.40 and 5.00 over the next 6 seasons and 5 different teams.
Jeremy Hellickson, because of accurate control and command, doesn’t face the same Rays growing pains as recent youngsters David Price and Wade Davis. He runs away with AL Rookie of the Year after a 16-8, 3.51 ERA, 158 inning, 146 K, 39 bb season. By 2013 he’s overtaken Price as the rotations “ace” reminding many of a young Roy Halladay in terms of statistics and dominance. A torn labrum breaks everyones hearts however in 2015. He doesn’t pitch in 2016 and returns to the Rays in July of 2017. He pitches to the tune of a 4.00 ERA, with less k’s but still great command. The Rays exercise his option year of 15 million and he returns to the team, winning 17 games in 2018. He hits free agency and signs a 5 year, 80 million dollar contract with the Red Sox. He wins a Cy Young in 2019 but pitches just 290 innings over the final four years of the deal. He makes a comeback bid in 2025 with the Rays but pitches just 59 innings, 38 k’s, 20 bb’s and retires.
Francisco Liriano has a seemingly Erik Bedard like career path, unable to stay healthy and unable to go deep into games. Constantly fashioning different ways to try and be amongst the games best pitchers when healthy because of the 3 MPH lost off of his fastball. The Twins and Liriano are unable to reach a contract extension and he signs a 7-year, 140 million dollar contract with the Yanks. His peak year is 2016 when he goes 22-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 186 K’s in 201 innings. A dugout scuffle between A-Rod and Liriano in 2017 becomes a video of legend and costs Liriano two months on the DL. He’s never the same after that. Career WAR of 41.5.
The baseball world weeps on July 16th, 2013 when a car travelling at 86 MPH carrying Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Jaime Garcia t-bones a car carrying Yovani Gallardo and Bud Norris. The 2013 World Series is dedicated to their memory.
So overall rankings?
Jeremy Hellickson
Francisco Liriano
Brett Anderson
Tommy Hanson
Gio
Gallardo
Cahill
Garcia
Norris
I'd say
Hellickson-David Cone-like career
Gallardo-Eventually puts together a string of seasons with stats like his 1st halves over the last couple years.
Anderson-Barry Zito 2.0; A string of great years followed by a sharp decline.
Hanson-Never really has a Cy-Yound season, but has really good ones consistently.
Cahill-Similar to Hanson with fewer Ks.
Garcia/Gio-Above-average starters, but nothing too special.
Liriano-Flames out withing the next few years. Maybe has a resurgence as a closer… maybe not.
Norris-Not much… Maybe a couple of good years a la Gil Meche.
I'd go...
Anderson
Hanson
Helickson
Cahill
Gonzalez
Liriano
Garcia
Norris
Speculative list
Yovani (by a mile)
Hellickson
Cahill
Hanson
Anderson
Gonzalez
Liriano
Norris
Hmm
Gallardo
Anderson
Hanson
Hellickson
Liriano
Cahill
Gio
Norris
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Jaime Garcia
Did anyone else notice he had a 10% swinging strike rate last season? 14th among starters, he was sandwiched right between Felix and Kershaw on the leaderboards. I’m not putting him up there with those guys by any means (or anywhere above the halfway point on this list), but it raised my esteem for him when I saw that coupled with his 56% ground ball rate, sixth in the majors.
Gallardo, Anderson 1-2
gap
Hanson
Gio
Liriano
Cahill
Hellickson
Norris
forgot Garcia
either before or after Hellickson, really doesn’t matter.
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