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Ten More 2011 Rookie Predictions

Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves delivers to a Washington Nationals batter at Nationals Park on March 31, 2011 in Washington, DC.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Ten More Rookie Predictions
    Here ten more rookie predictions. Although each of them is intended to be plausible, this is just for fun. Don't take these especially seriously.

Star-divide

 

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: Send to Triple-A to begin the season, Ackley will provide better defense than expected, but get off to a surprisingly slow start offensively. His bat will come alive in late June, he will reach the majors in late July, then have the same pattern: a slow start, followed by good hitting late in the year setting him up for success in 2012.

J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays: Arencibia will hold his job all year, hitting .239 with a .304 OBP and 21 homers.

Brandon Beachy, RHP, Atlanta Braves: Beachy will very quietly have a nice rookie year, going 10-13 due to shaky run support but a 109 ERA+ in 175 innings of work. His best game will be a three-hit complete game, 102-pitch shutout against the San Diego Padres in late June.

Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: Replacing the injured Brian Matusz in the rotation, Britton will alternate good outings with bad ones (resulting in an ERA over 5.00) and get sent back to Triple-A when Matusz comes off the DL in late May. He will completely dominate the International League, be promoted back to Baltimore in early August, and have an outstanding six-start stretch until being shut down for precautionary workload reasons in September.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Kansas City Royals: Jeffress will hold his roster spot all season but won't be used in high-leverage situations very often. He'll finish with 62 innings pitched, with a 51/39 K/BB ratio and an ERA of 4.70. He'll get one save opportunity late in the year and blow it. He'll also hit 100 MPH on several occasions.

Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta Braves: Kimbrel will hold the closer job through late July and pitch quite well until he goes on the disabled list with a knee injury. He'll return in early September and pick up right where he left off, but misses enough pitching time to fall out of ROY consideration. He ends up with a 56/28 K/BB in 49 innings, 18 saves, and a 119 ERA+.

Cory Luebke, LHP, San Diego Padres: Luebke opens the year in the Padres bullpen and pitches well due to sharp control, leading to some spot starts and an eventual look in the rotation in August. He finishes with 87 innings pitched, an ERA+ of 107, a 65/17 K/BB ratio, and a "pay close attention to this guy" rating as he heads into 2012 as a starter.

Brent Morel, 3B, Chicago White Sox: Morel hits well in April, poorly in May, well in June, poorly in July, well in August, and poorly in September, but plays well enough with the glove to stay in the lineup despite his very streaky hitting. He finishes at .261/.329/.422 but quietly swipes 17 bases.

Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle Mariners: Pineda will have several brilliant outings in April and May, leading to "Duke Michael" parallels with "King Felix" ("Duke" instead of "Prince" because "Prince Michael" doesn't sound too dominant). He'll have some bad starts in June, go on the DL in July with a sore elbow and scare the hell out of everyone, but come back healthy and sound in September.

Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: Walden will thrive in the seventh and eighth innings, then move into the closer role in June after the Angels give up on Fernando Rodney and his 5.90 ERA. Walden's walk rate will creep up as the season progresses and he'll have some rough patches, but he'll end up with 20 saves, a great K/IP ratio, and a 112 ERA+.

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As a time traveler from the future, I can confirm that at least six of these predictions will come true. But due to the vows I have taken as a member of my sect, I cannot reveal which ones they are.

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Apr 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

As a Sox fan...

I love the Morel prediction. That would be a very solid triple slash for him.

The one that jumped out at me was the Kimbrel prediction. John clearly has him pegged for a big improvement in control.

by polodude017 on Apr 4, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

kimbrel

Don’t get too excited, that was a typo. It was supposed to be 28 walks. fixed.

by John Sickels on Apr 4, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok...

that makes more sense.

by polodude017 on Apr 4, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sosh needs to make Walden the closer now

Anyone see the Angels game yesterday?

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Apr 4, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know what's worse...

letting Rodney continue to close or giving him that contract in the first place.

by polodude017 on Apr 4, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Two wrongs

Don’t make a right.

http://babiesboozeandboobs.wordpress.com/

by Sethy on Apr 4, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup.

They’re just compounding the mistake by giving him such a prominent role. It’s one of the worst mistakes a team can make. They sign a guy to an unrealistically large contract, and then force him into an unrealistic role because of the contract, which wasn’t even warranted in the first place.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Apr 4, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

this guy did

:)

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Apr 4, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

and agreed

walden was by far the most impressive reliever for angels. could stand to improve slider command a little but fastball impressive.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Apr 4, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

LAA Bullpen v KC Bullpen

=a good start for the Royals! Still sticking with my 73-89, but would love for them to stick around a while.

by killa on Apr 4, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

BEACHY

Beachy pitched a gem today. And he pitched quite well in those few starts at the end of last year. What is it about Beachy that scouts don’t like? Beachy has to be the most disrespected achiever of all time. Infielder at Indiana Wesleyan. Never drafted. Rockets to the majors in just 24 months. Led all minor league levels in ERA last year. While Beachy is finally cracking some prospect lists (way down at the bottom), the consensus still seems to be a low ceiling (#4 or 5 starter). What gives? Is his velocity poor? No movement? How is he getting so many batters out? I really want to know.

by arch9876 on Apr 4, 2011 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

He's a gamer

The Brewers have a good lineup and from what i’ve heard(will watch the game when I get off) he was keeping hitters off balance all day. His stuff isn’t overpowering but when he need to he can get it up to 95+. I really like the way he pitches and think he’s a sleeper for the ROY.

by Jay212033 on Apr 4, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that assessment of his apex might be a little light

I’d say he’s more of a third starter if everything breaks right. The fact that he’s surrounded by an absolute wealth of high end mound prospects in the ATL organization probably causes some to gloss over him a bit, but he’s a legitimate future piece to me.

by Matt0330 on Apr 5, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kimbrel will be better

Guy is pure filth. His control has been slightly harnessed to the point where he is effectively wildly for a reliever.

by Braves1983 on Apr 4, 2011 11:10 PM EDT reply actions  

John

If you are going to do another piece, i would be interested in one on Ivan DeJesus Jr. He is off to a bad start in the box score(0-6, 5Ks) however, he has seen over 5 pitches per AB. The big question on him was his patience.

Also the fact that, without looking it up, I don’t believe you included him on the top 20 is interesting as well. Thanks John

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Apr 4, 2011 11:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Jeffress

will get more than one save opportunity at the end of the season. When Soria is traded, Collins/Crow/Jeffress will vie for the 2012 closer role. I bet he gets at least 5 opportunities.

I could also see them starting Jeffress a few games at the end of the year if they feel comfortable with Collins or Crow as the closer

by ScottAZ on Apr 5, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

i don't see Soria traded at all, so point is moot

but, i like a lot of relievers on this team including Greg Holland and Louis Coleman who start in AAA this season (but are basically ML ready). so they should look into it. he could be in extremely high demand at the deadline.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Apr 5, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

It must be somewhat under the radar just how friendly Joakim Soria’s contract & series of team options are. It would take a pretty nice package to pry him from KC given that & the pitcher’s young age.

by Matt0330 on Apr 6, 2011 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

and also FWIW

i don’t really see Jeffress as ever getting a chance to start. Crow might though (and should). they’ve said they haven’t at all shut the door on Crow starting. but i’ve seen no “start” chatter at all with Jefferss.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Apr 5, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

well

since you obviously a big KC fan I will defer to you on this one as you obviously follow the team and hear the inside stuff more than I.

Interesting about Soria. I would think his contract situation would make him MORE attractive to another team and more valuable for the Royals. Why not a package to one of the super-powers that may need a closer midseason (Sox with the paplebon situation/Phillies with Lidge). Soria for Singeton and Colvin would seem like a pretty good thing for a team that is 2-3 years away from making noise

by ScottAZ on Apr 6, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Only a 119 ERA+ for Kimbrel? That would be very disappointing considering he posted a 914 ERA+ last year. :)

I think Kimbrel will post an ERA+ of at least 200 and win the NL ROY.

by Pachoo5 on Apr 5, 2011 7:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Also, only 56 strikeouts in 49 IP for Kimbrel would be way way low compared to his minor league and major league k rates so far. In 49 IP Kimbrel would probably have closer to 92 Ks.

by Pachoo5 on Apr 5, 2011 7:26 PM EDT reply actions  

really?

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Apr 5, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was he striking out nearly 18 batters per 9 in the minors?

I highly doubt that. And even if he was, that wouldn’t quite translate to the majors, lol.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Apr 6, 2011 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kimbrel has pitched 22 2/3 innings in his major league career so far and has struck out 45, a rate of 17.87 k/9. That rate over 49 IP would be 97.3 strikeouts, so 92 would be a bit lower than his career rate so far.

by Pachoo5 on Apr 5, 2011 11:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Have you ever heard of SSS

I’m guessing…no?

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Apr 6, 2011 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kimbrel had ridiculous k rates in the minors as well. He was very hyped before throwing a single inning in the majors due to his ridiculous k rates. And 22 2/3 IP really isn’t that small of a sample size when it comes to relievers.

by Pachoo5 on Apr 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, Kimbrel’s career ERA+ sits at 1014 right now lol. His 2 innings pitched this year has actually increased his career ERA+ from the 914 it sat at the end of last season. That shows how ridiculously dominant he has been. He has allowed one earned run his entire career so far.

by Pachoo5 on Apr 5, 2011 11:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Kenley Jansen allowed 2 ER in 27 innings last year with around 13 ks per 9 inning

Take a look at how he’s done in the one inning or so this year. Kimbrel’s going to experience that at least a few times this year, there’s no doubt.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Apr 6, 2011 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

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