Post-Hype Analysis: Chris Tillman
by John Sickels on Apr 25, 2011 4:01 PM EDT
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Post-Hype Analysis: Chris Tillman
I get a lot of questions about Chris Tillman of the Baltimore Orioles, basically variations on "Can he live up to the potential he showed in the minor leagues?"
Tillman was a second round pick by the Seattle Mariners in 2006, a high school pitcher from Fountain Valley, California. He was rated a first-round talent entering the spring, but an erratic senior year dropped his stock slightly. He hit 93-95 MPH on his best days, but also had days when he was stuck in the 85-87 range, so scouts weren't sure what to expect. He was projectable at 6-5, 195, and he showed promise with a splitter and slider. Tillman was brilliant in 11 Arizona Rookie League innings (one earned run, 16/5 K/BB), but was crushed after being promoted to the Northwest League (7.78 ERA in 20 innings with 29/15 K/BB). I gave him a Grade B- in the 2007 book.
Tillman began 2007 with Wisconsin in the Midwest League, posting a 3.55 ERA with a 34/13 K/BB in 33 innings. This was decent, but not spectacular. However, the Mariners moved him up to the pinball machine at High Desert in May. He was annihilated in his first few starts and it looked like a really stupid decision, but he kept his head about him and pitched much better as the season progressed, finishing with a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts. His velocity settled into the 90-93 range, he replaced the slider with a strong curveball, and developed a better changeup in place of the high school splitter. I gave him a Grade B+, ranking him as the Number 16 pitching prospect in the game.
Traded to Baltimore in the Eric Bedard deal, Tillman spent all of 2008 with Double-A Bowie, going 11-4, 3.18 with a 154/65 K/BB in 136 innings, 115 hits. The walk rate was a bit high, but his curveball and changeup continued to improve and he worked consistently in the 92-94 range. I gave him another Grade B+, ranked Number 14 on the list.
As you know, Tillman has split the 2009 and 2010 seasons between Triple-A and Baltimore, and is in the rotation to open 2011. He now has 39 career Triple-A starts under his belt, with a 19-13 record, 3.06 ERA, and 193/56 K/BB in 218 innings, 205 hits allowed. Clearly he has nothing left to learn at Norfolk, and his statistics there certainly imply that he should be successful in the majors. But it hasn't happened yet. In 27 major league starts, he's 4-12, 5.69, with an 86/61 K/BB in 138 innings, 149 hits allowed, 77 ERA+, 5.68 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, and a WAR of 0.1.
From an historical perspective, his slow career start isn't necessarily lethal to his future. The Most Comparable Pitchers for Tillman according to Baseball Prospectus are Johnny Cueto-2010, Jair Jurrjens-2010, Homer Bailey-2010, Jess Todd-2010, Tyler Clippard-2009, Ervin Santana-2007, Chad Gaudin-2007, Zack Greinke-2008, Hayden Penn-2009, and Anibal Sanchez-2008. Obviously the Orioles would be thrilled if they could get a Greinke or Jurrjens-like outcome out of him, or even Sanchez and Cueto.
But what's the particular cause of his problems so far? Tillman's pitch selection has changed somewhat over the last three years. He still throws right around 60% fastballs, but he's added a cutter, complimenting his curveball and changeup. The cutter is an effective pitch for him, at least if you buy into Fangraph's "pitch type values." The changeup is also fairly effective and the curveball isn't horrendous, but where he gets killed is the fastball. His fastball velocity is declining steadily, ranging from 88 to 95 MPH in 2008 (92.0 average), to 88-93 last year (90.3), to just 85-92 (88.8) this year. He's still throwing hard enough to succeed if his command is there, but sharp command isn't something he's consistently demonstrated.
I haven't seen enough of Tillman in person or on TV to speculate about the exact causes of why the velocity drop is happening, and would be very interested in the observations of Orioles fans or others who have seen a lot of him. There's speculation about an injury and he skipped a start with a sore groin. His ERA is 6.16 in four starts this year, but his WHIP of 1.42 is improved from his pre-season career 1.54 mark. His FIP (3.68) and xFIP (4.03) are much better than the ERA, and he's pitched well in two of his four starts.
Overall, as long as he's healthy, I think there's still a good chance that Tillman can live up to his potential, perhaps as soon as this year. He's only 23. If he had gone to Cal State Fullerton instead of signing with the Mariners in 2006, he would have been drafted in 2009, very likely as a first-round pick, and this would just be his second full pro season. He deserves some slack.
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comming from a jays fan i seen this guys play accouple times.
he is good i dont think he has ace stuff. But to me he will be a good second guy a really good one. Kinda like a Carmona of the indians or Santana of the angeles but all around a good pitcher.
He's been up and down this year
His curveball has been a go to pitch for him most of the time, and his changeup is much better than it was last year. A little more fad.
His fastball was consistently above 90 mph in his last start, and often over 91 mph. We’ll see how the velo is in his next start, but I think he could start getting back into the 90’s and out of the 80’s for good soon.
The problem is when he’s throwing harder he has no idea where the ball’s going. That’s why you see the improved BB/9 this year, but the loss of velocity comes with that.
what really worries me is the fastball
its very straight and the velo has been down and also he’s often looked like a deer in headlights, although he has looked more confident this year and maybe is finally getting comfortable, as he is still young (just turned 23). The curveball is a plus pitch, almost a 12-6 with serious depth and he has flashed a good change up. If he can blend the cutter in to keep guys off his straight FB i think he could become a good number 3 starter, but I don’t think the FB is good enough to be a top of the rotation guy like he was projected, unless the velo ticks back up to the 93-95 range (it’s been 88-91 for the most part).
+1
As an O’s fan, I have followed Tillman since the Bedard deal and seen him pitch both live and on tv. Tillman’s fastball is straight as an arrow and unless he sits in the low 90s, he is very hittable. Indeed, the declining velocity is very worrisome. I’ve seen him up around 93-95 (mainly in his rookie year) and then as low as 86-87 (this and last year). Even when he sits in the mid-to-low 90s, his fastball, without movement, is normally ineffective.
I don't ever know what it means when fans say his fastball is straight.
…afterall, we’re not standing in the batters box, and most likely viewing the pitch from a quarter-angle camera view on TV that typically favors the stuff coming out of Lefties’ hands. Up down movement is a little more obvious, but I doubt we can really judge cutting and running actions on fastballs unless we’re sitting behind home plate.
That said, I am concerned about Tillman’s fastball. Though it’s not necessarily because of the velocity. When he first came up, the reports were that it had a lot of life on it and a lot of batters swung late. Lately, you don’t quite see as many hitters getting caught late, or having as much trouble staying between the offspeed and fastball. All that said, the main thing I am concerned with is the command of the fastball. He gets into a lot of bad counts, and tends to toss a lot of flyballs off that pitch. In Camden he’s been hurt quite a few times because of it. He came up as a promising power stuff guy with a late curve who dares you to hit his stuff, but he’s turning into a crafty righty who tries to keep hitters off balance, off his fastball. The critical thing about such crafty pitchers is that, they often have good command to paint the black. Tillman isn’t quite one of those guys. He’s kind of trying to pitch like a crafty soft-tossing pitcher, without the exquisite command of one. So, he often forces himself into a situation where he reverts to throwing his best fastball, but as mentioned before, it isn’t what it it was for some mysterious reason.
+1
when I saw him pitch vs the Twins, he reminded me a little of Scott Baker. He was consistently sneaking his 89 mph fastball past hitters up in the zone and using his good curve to keep the hitters off balance. It seemed like he had a good combo of throwing strikes and the Twins being over aggressive. You can get away with his fastball when your working ahead like Baker does but are still going to be prone to the long ball. Maybe Orioles fans can come up with a catchy name like Scott Baker the Home Run Maker for Tillman
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
This is very interesting
As a Rays fan who lives in Maryland and works in Baltimore, I’ve had the impression — aided by the sports “writing” (such that it is) in the Baltimore Sun and the sports “analysis” on WBAL — that Tillman’s problems were his secondary offerings, not his FB.
I would add to that impression the huge disparity between Tillman’s video-game-esque minor-league and major-league numbers, which usually indicate a guy who’s allowed to just air it out at AAA as opposed to being sent to work on particular developmental issues.
So I guess I was pretty bullish on Tillman until I read this post.
Well, in fairness, I think his stuff is still very good...
…he shows a good breaking ball. At it’s best the curve has a a near 12-6 late dive with a tight spin, and relatively steep hump. It’s inconsistent from start to start, but that’s somewhat expected for a pitcher that young. Like John said, he is 23. It’s just one of those things where, if it’s a start where he has little command of the curve, then batters identify it quickly, because of the hump, and sit sit on the fastball.
That said, his fastball has life on it. I liked it better when he was throwing harder and more four-seamers. I read somewhere back around Baltimore that he’s been opting to go with his 2-seamer more often, which means slightly less velocity, but more movement. Supposedly he’s been doing such because he’s been able to command it more, and it tends to have some dive action in it, which should keep the flyballs down.
AAA experience...
…I just also wanted to mention that I’ve seen him pitch in the minors, and he’s basically the same pitcher down there. Though he seems to be more confident and assertive in just throwing it in the strikezone more often. His command at AAA is about as spotty, in my opinion, but it doesn’t show up in the stats as much because hitters tend to swing and miss at his stuff.
The main difference that I see, which is admittedly subjective, is that when he’s behind in the count, or needs to pitch out of a jam, he’s more apt to trust his fastball life, and throw it in the strikezone. More times than not, the hitters miss, or at minimum, he establishes a track record in the hitters’ minds that they chase more balls in general. When he’s in the majors, the pattern changes to what you expect from a young pitcher (i.e. tentatively picking around the edges of the strikezone, putting himself into a worse situation, raising the pressure behind each pitch, and raising the chances of making a mistake pitch, which in his case because of his four-seam life, produces a flyball in a homerun park that Camden is).
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