FanPost

1 year later: my 2010 prospect list vs. BA's



This is to open up some discussion more than anything. Over the past couple of seasons, I've begun to wonder whether the experts are really that great at formulating rankings. They are undoubtedly good at what they do, which is compiling tons of minor league baseball content and opinions and scouting reports. But regardless of their resources and knowledge, I am not always pleased with their final Prospect rankings. And its not only BA, its pretty much every expert opinion. I know they have to keep these interesting, and they have a lot of different talking heads involved. A lot of scouts' opinions to take into account, etc.  But after a year, I think my list stands up quite well in comparison. Granted, it is only a year, but this is just for fun. I recognize that we won't be able to truly judge these lists for probably another 10 years or so. Last year was the first year that I spent a great deal of time on my own list though [40+ hours researching/compiling/watching vid/etc], so its the first time I've felt that I had a good shot at making a quality ranking that might stand the test of time.

 

I always publish my list 2 or 3 weeks ahead of BA's, just to be sure I won't be influenced by their rankings. I do of course use some of their opinions to judge a prospect, but mostly only Callis and Manuel. I also rely on Sickels, Piliere, Law, and Eisenberg. And even some of the members here.

here is the url to my fanpost from last year:

link

The rankings seen are my own, then I listed BA's, and then the result. a P=push, W= win, L=loss, lol= when they matched my ranking and N/A=injured player or really unsure.

 

for the results, I figured something like this:

for rankings 1-20 :: anything 3 spots or better is a difference, or a win/loss.

21-50:: 4 spots or more.

51-75:: 5 spots or more.

76-100:: 6 or more.

And this is kind of a loose system, since it isn't always clear whether a prospect should be higher/lower. A lot of it is personal opinion. So if you see some results that are a 'Push' even though the difference is great enough for a result, it's because I was unsure of which way to go or because the range/difference is right in-between where I'd rank the prospect.

I also didn't weigh the results, meaning a win is a win, a loss is a loss.  Although I probably should have, as Wil Myers alone might have made my score very impressive.

 

At the end of the rankings, I have the final tally.

And feel free to provide some feedback... if you feel I was too generous/strict with any of the results. Its not always so clear/straightforward as to whether a prospect deserved to be ranked higher/lower based on his current prospect standing in 2011.

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1. Jason Heyward - OF ATL      BA = 1.  Result = P

2. Stephen Strasburg - P WAS   BA=2.  Result =P

3. Buster Posey - C SF   BA=7.  Result =W

4. Carlos Santana - C CLE   BA=10. Result =W

5. Michael Stanton - OF FLA  BA =3.  Result =P

6. Desmond Jennings - CF TB  BA =6.  Result =lol.

7. Jesus Montero - C/DH NYY  BA =4.  Result =P

8. Brian Matusz - P BAL  BA =5. Result =P

9. Neftali Feliz - P TEX BA =9. Result =lol.

10. Dustin Ackley - CF/2B SEA BA =11. Result =P

11. Martin Perez - P TEX  BA =17.  Result =L

12. Domonic Brown - OF PHI  BA =15. Result =W

13. Justin Smoak - 1B TEX 
 BA =13.  Result =lol

14. Pedro Alvarez - 3B/1B PIT  BA =8.  Result =W

15. Christian Friedrich - P COL BA =33. Result =L

16. Aroldis Chapman - P CIN   BA =22.  Result =W

17. Logan Morrison - 1B/OF FLA  BA =20.  Result =W

18. Jeremy Hellickson - P TB  BA =18.  Result =lol

19. Jenrry Mejia - P NYM 
 BA =56  Result =N/A

20. Michael Taylor - OF OAK  BA =29.  Result =L

21. Wade Davis - P TB BA =34.   Result =P

22. Chris Carter - 1B/DH OAK  BA =28.  Result =P

23. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B CLE  BA =31.  Result =P

24. Aaron Hicks - CF MIN 
 BA =19.  Result =P

25. Matthew Moore - P TB   BA =35.  Result =W

26. Starlin Castro - SS CHC  BA =16.  Result =L

27. Kyle Drabek - P TOR  BA =25.  Result =P

28. Madison Bumgarner - P SF  BA =14.  Result =L

29. Derek Norris - C WAS 
 BA =38.  Result =P

30. Tyler Matzek - P COL  BA =23.  Result =W

31. Fernando Martinez - OF NYM  BA =77.  Result =L

32. Casey Kelly - P BOS   BA =24.  Result =W

33. Freddie Freeman - 1B ATL  BA =32.  Result =P

34. Alcides Escobar - SS MIL  BA =12.  Result =W

35. Mike Montgomery - P KC  BA =39.  Result =P

36. Chris Withrow - P LAD   BA =48.  Result =L

37. Aaron Crow - P KC   BA =40.   Result =P

38. Ryan Westmoreland - CF BOS   BA =20.  Result =N/A

39. Brett Wallace - 1B TOR   BA =27.  Result =W

40. Devaris Gordon - SS LAD  BA =40.  Result =P

41. Jordan Lyles - P HOU   BA =91.  Result =W

42. Julio Teheran - P ATL   BA =51.  Result =W

43. Todd Frazier - 2B/3B/OF CIN  BA =43.  Result =lol

44. Casey Crosby - P DET  BA =44.  Result =P

45. Donovan Tate - CF SD  BA =53.  Result =L

46. Grant Green - SS OAK  BA =52.  Result =W

47. Simon Castro - P SD   BA =57.  Result =P

48. Jacob Turner - P DET  BA =26.  Result =L

49. Jared Mitchell - CF CHW  BA=55.  Result =L

50. Hector Rondon - P CLE    BA=NR  Result =L

51. Wil Myers - C KC   BA =NR  Result =WWWWW

52. Reid Brignac - SS TB   BA =54.   Result =P

53. Yonder Alonso - 1B CIN   BA =45.  Result =P

54. Josh Bell - 3B BAL   BA =37.  Result =W

55. Jaff Decker - OF SD   BA =82.  Result =L

56. Arodys Vizcaino - P ATL  BA =69.  Result =L

57. Alex Colome - P TB   BA =68.  Result =L

58. Jhoulys Chacin - P COL   BA =71.  Result =W

59. Brett Lawrie - 2B/OF MIL   BA =59.  Result =lol

60. Shelby Miller - P STL  BA =50  Result =L

61. Kyle Gibson - P MIN   BA =61.  Result =lol

62. Dan Hudson - P CHW   BA =66.  Result =P

63. Zach Stewart - P TOR   BA =NR  Result =L

64. Tanner Scheppers - P TEX   BA =42.  Result =W

65. Josh Reddick - CF/OF BOS  BA =75.  Result =P

66. Mike Trout - CF LAA    BA =85.   Result  =W

67. Tim Beckham - SS TB   BA =67.  Result  =lol

68. Tim Melville - P KC    BA =NR.  Result =L

69. Tyler Flowers - C/DH CHW  BA =60.  Result =P

70. Mike Moustakas - 3B KC  BA =80.   Result =W

71. Brett Jackson - CF CHC   BA =74.  Result  =P

72. Jose Iglesias - SS BOS   BA =NR.  Result =W

73. Zach Britton - P BAL   BA =63.  Result =L

74. Ryan Kalish - CF BOS   BA =NR.  Result =W

75. Hank Conger - C LAA   BA =84.  Result =P

76. Danny Duffy - P KC   BA =NR.  Result =W

77. Jay Jackson - P CHC   BA =98.  Result =L

78. Ethan Martin - P LAD   BA =NR.  Result =L

79. Jake Arrieta - P BAL  BA =99.  Result =P

80. Josh Vitters - 3B CHC  BA =70.  Result =W

81. Alex Avila - C DET  BA =NR.  Result =L

82. Jiovanni Mier - SS HOU  BA =73.  Result =W

83. Zach Wheeler - P SF    BA =49.  Result =L

84. James Darnell - 3B SD   BA =90.  Result =P

85. Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA   BA =NR.  Result =W

86. Manny Banuelos - P NYY  BA =NR.  Result =W

87. Mat Gamel - 3B/OF MIL   BA =89.  Result =P

88. Michael Saunders - OF SEA   BA =30.  Result =W

89. Nick Weglarz - OF CLE   BA =NR.  Result =W

90. Hak-Ju Lee - SS CHC  BA =NR.  Result =P

91. Mike Leake - P CIN  BA =72.  Result =P

92. Wilmer Flores - SS NYM  BA =88.  Result =P

93. Jason Castro - C HOU   BA =41.  Result =W

94. Jarrod Parker - P ARI   BA =36.  Result =N/A

95. Alex White - P CLE   BA =65.  Result =L

96. Scott Sizemore - 2B DET  BA =NR.  Result =P

97. Austin Romine - C NYY  BA =86.  Result =W

98. Tony Sanchez - C PIT   BA =79.  Result =L

99. Austin Jackson - CF DET  BA =76.  Result =P

100. Danny Espinosa - SS WAS  BA =NR.  Result =W

101. Drew Storen - RP WAS  BA =92.  Result =P

104. Ike Davis - 1B NYM  BA =62.  Result =L

105. Thomas Neal - OF SF  BA =96.  Result =P

108. Nick Hagadone - P CLE  BA =44.  Result =W

111. Travis D'Arnaud - C TOR BA =81.  Result =W

115. Noel Arguelles - P KC BA =100.  Result =W

116. Jason Knapp - P CLE   BA =64.  Result =N/A

121. Miguel Sano - SS MIN  BA =94. Result =L

123. Chad James - P FLA   BA =78.  Result =L

131. Wilson Ramos - C MIN  BA =58.  Result =L

135. Andrew Cashner - SP/RP CHC BA =95.  Result =L

146. Phillipe Aumont - P PHI  BA =93.  Result =W

HM. Peter Bourjos - OF LAA  BA =97.  Result =P

NR.  Adam Moore - C SEA  BA =83.  Result =W

NR. Lars Anderson - 1B BOS  BA =87.  Result =W

 

 

Final Tally:

Mine:::  38 wins

BA:::   29 wins

Push/Tie:::   36

Lol/Exact:  8/100

NA:  4

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