Career Profile: Andruw Jones
by John Sickels on Apr 19, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
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Andruw Jones (Getty Images)
Career Profile: Andruw Jones
Per reader request, here is a Career Profile for Andruw Jones.
Andruw Jones was signed by the Atlanta Braves as a free agent from the Netherlands Antilles in 1993. He made his North American debut in 1994, hitting .336/.385/.448 in 36 games for Danville in the Appalachian League, with 16 stolen bases, nine walks, and 25 strikeouts in 143 at-bats at age 17. Although he was somewhat raw, scouts fell in love with his tools immediately, and he was named the Number Two prospect in the Appy League by Baseball America. They loved his glove as much as his bat. I'd probably give a similar player nowadays a Grade B at a minimum and maybe a B+.
Moved up to Macon in the South Atlantic League for 1995, Jones hit .277/.372/.512 with 41 doubles, 25 homers, 56 steals in 66 attempts, 70 walks, and 122 strikeouts in 537 at-bats. His power/speed/walks combination was excellent, he posted a +31 percent OPS, and scouting reports were terrific. He was also named Best Defensive Outfielder in the Sally League, and drew comparisons to outstanding players like Cesar Cedeno and Roberto Clemente. I was named the Top Prospect in the league (Vlad Guerrero was number two). I gave him a Grade A rating, and named him the Number Two hitting prospect in baseball behind Johnny Damon.
Jones began 1996 with High-A Durham, hitting .313/.419/.605 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 66 games. Promoted to Double-A Greenville at mid-season, he went on a massive tear, hitting .369/.432/.675 in 38 games, with 12 steals. He remained hot in Triple-A (.378/.391/.822 in 12 games for Richmond), earning a promotion to Atlanta. Not surprisingly, he struggled in his first look at big-league pitching, hitting .217/.264/.443 in 31 games, though he did hit five homers and impressed everyone with his tools. He was just 19. I wrote that he was "a unique talent," gave him a Grade A, and rated him as the top prospect in baseball entering 1997.
He played all of 1997 in the majors, hitting .231/.329/.416 with 18 homers, 20 steals, and 56 walks. He was raw, but the talent was clear, and he took a step forward with the bat in his sophomore season, hitting .271/.321/.515 with 31 homers and 27 steals.
You know the outlines of his career from this point. Although he hit over .300 just once, Jones' combination of power, speed, walks, and stellar defense made up for his mediocre batting averages. He kept his WARs above 7.0 in '98, '99, and '00. His offensive peak was 2005 at age 25, when he hit .263/.357/.575 with 51 homers (OPS+136), combining with his defense to give him a peak 8.3 WAR. He won 10 Gold Gloves.
But as you know, it all came crashing down in 2007 at age 30, when he hit just .222/.311/.413 (OPS+87). Injuries wiped out 2008, then he had a couple of fair years as a role player in '09 (WAR 0.9) and '10 (WAR 1.8) due to power and remnant defensive value. He's on the Yankees bench this year.
So far in his career, Jones has hit .257/.338/.488, OPS+111 in 2030 games. His career WAR is very strong at 70.8, thanks in great measure to his peak years on defense. He seemed a certain Hall of Famer when he was young, but how do things look now?
Despite his rapid decline at age 30, Jones' career WAR of 70.8 still ranks him 37th-All Time among outfielders, with Willie Stargell at 36th. Zack Wheat is 38th, Billy Williams is 39th, and Billy Hamilton is 40th. According to RAA, Jones has the highest outfield defensive value of all time with a 276.4 RAA; his nearest competitor is Roberto Clemente at 204. Indeed, according to RAA, Jones has the second-highest defensive value of all time, among all players at all positions, second only to Brooks Robinson (294 fielding RAA)
Most Similar Players so far: Dale Murphy, Reggie Jackson (Hall), Jose Canseco, Rocky Colavito, Shawn Green, Duke Snider (Hall), Bobby Bonds, Eddie Murray (Hall), Sammy Sosa, and Greg Luzinski. That's just based on his hitting; add in the defense and he looks like a Hall guy to me. His Black Ink score is just 10 (average for the Hall is 27), with a Gray Ink of 47 (144) and Standards of 34 (50). However, his Monitor rating is 108 (average is 100).
If you agree with the advanced metrics about the value of Jones' defense, then there's no question that he's a Hall of Famer.
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HOF
I think it all depends upon the feelings about the advanced stats when he is eligible. The extent to which the voting populace is able to measure and accept his significant defensive value will determine whether or not he gets inducted.
I think his case is borderline, but I would vote for him.
So,
No theories, player precedent, or data to explain his precipitous decline? It’s kind of an interesting case, isn’t it, as most hitters tend to fall off more gradually and not that young?
I love your work, but if I wanted a history of Jones’ career absent commentary, I can get that anywhere.
Go away. You have no evidence of this, and you hide behind an alias.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
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You have no evidence of this
Thats why its a theory. duh.
by philiafan14364 on Apr 20, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to be pedantic, but the definition of a theory is that it is a falsifiable hypothesis based on evidence. You are making a slanderous assertion. There’s a difference.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Apr 21, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
John did the same thing with Tony Fernandez
Baseball players have brought this on themselves.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Apr 21, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
It is a legitimate theory regardless of whether it is correct. His skills seemed to fall off at a time when MLB players began facing drug testing with significant consequences for a failed sample. I am not saying that Jones was doping, but it is a reasonable assumption.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Apr 20, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well a couple of things...
The guy was a known partier and the he let himself go. His speed was gone by 25. He was fat and out of shape at 30. He was one of the must frustrating guys seeing someone with his talent, speed, and agility lose it by the time he was 30. It could have been roids I suppose, but I think it was more uttler lack of restraint and conditioning.
If he didn't make the Hall of Fame, or for those people who don't think he is a Hall of Famer, it's only because of what he didn't become rather than what he did become.
What he did become was very unique and very special.
by Kenneth Arthur on Apr 19, 2011 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i think it's a test case for what people think of defensive value.
if you put a lot of weight into things like UZR, he looks good. if you’re more skeptical, or don’t place as much value on defense, he doesn’t.
He won all those Gold Gloves, so it's not like it was just UZR that liked his fielding
It does seem like a lot of sportswriters don’t really think about fielding, though. Or they think of it as a “bonus” on an already-complete resume, on par with being considered a good clubhouse guy or whatever.
Makes sense....
Jones’ defense was renowned for a long time, and it even overshadowed the fact that he could hit 30 HRs and drive in 100+ guys. I wonder how/if the writers will look at him…
Personally, I’d have to say no. He was the kind of guy you always expected more from. Everyone wanted 2000 over again and he never delivered. Instead, he settled on being an “old skills” or maybe just lazy (but obviously extremely talented) hitter. He took that attitude and ran with it…he never got his conditioning together…got fat often…pretended to get in shape often…I always like Carlos Beltran more.
It's not like he was a huge slouch on offense
He’s hit over 400 HR for his career. For a guy with an argument as the best defensive CF of all time, that should be more than enough value with the bat to make it.
comp players
Using Andruw’s most similar players thru age 33 will be misleading, since his career has taken such a sharp downward decline. The HOFers you mentioned were mostly useful players after age 30, not role-players and bench guys. If Andruw remains a bench/role player for the next few seasons before retiring, his career will end up looking more like the list of guys just to the left of the “thru 33” list on B-R.
That said, he’s a once-in-a-generation talent in CF with over 400 home runs….he’s a HOFer in my book
http://www.hardballtimes.com/
by Dan Novick on Apr 19, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pretty impressive that Billy Hamilton is already 40th among outfielders for defensive WAR before ever playing a game
especially as a shortstop. That catch he had at the left field wall must have been pretty great.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Isn't he pretty clearly...
the Dale Murphy of this generation? a guy that had an amazing peak but then fell apart too early ?
HOF usually isn’t kind to peak players (with some exception to pitchers). so I’d probably say he won’t make it unless he manage to sustain some kind of super bench role for a lot longer than I suspect he will (ala Tim Raines).
Still though, it’s kinda sad to see him playing subs nowadays on the Yankees, in 1996 you saw him and Jeter and you’d probably guessed their HOF chances were about even, yet now one is basically a lock and the other one is highly doubtful.
Thing is, Dale Murphy had 47.3 fWAR. Andruw has 70.8 and counting. Dale Murphy was more like the Don Mattingly of the NL; he was the second-best player in the league behind only Mike Schmidt for about an 8-year period, and then he fell off a cliff in his early 30s. Meanwhile, Andruw was possibly the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and unquestionably the greatest of the last 40 years.
Other than their both being Braves center fielders, there isn’t much comparison. Murphy is more similar to Wally Berger than Andruw Jones.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Apr 20, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised that his career track doesn't mention his two home runs in the 1996 WS
I think he might have been the youngest player ever to homer in the World Series – did he hit two in Game 1, or one each in Games 1 and 2? It’s been a while. As a Yankee fan that really impressed me, although I was pretty happy with the way the Series turned out that year :-)
Youngest player to homer in the World Series, beating Mantle’s record. Andruw hit two homers in game 1.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Apr 20, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Why did he fall off a cliff? Look at games played.
He became a full-time player in 1997, at the age of 20, and essentially never took a day off for the next eleven seasons while manning center field and covering more ground than nearly anyone else ever. (He mostly played right field in ’97, some center, and then switched over full-time in 1998.)
On the day of his 30th birthday, he played his 1626th career game. He had the body of an old man.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
Eh
I’m dubious of this one. CF is not catcher or second base. Plenty of players have lasted a long while in CF, especially those who profile as superstars defensively in their 20’s. I think it’s more likely that Jones is just exceptionally naturally gifted, and exceptionally poorly conditioned (for a big leaguer.)
Jones
1. As a Mets fan, it’s my duty to hate him.
2. I’m very dubious of defensive statistics, particularly going back before 2003 or so. (No affront to Sean Smith, but TZ is probably not all that accurate on a granular level, so I’ll take it with a… wait for it…grain of salt.)
3. Andruw Jones, except for a few moments (the 96 World Series, the 2000 and 2005 seasons) did not live up to his potential, and it’s mostly his fault due to poor conditioning. That having been said, Andruw Jones pretty clearly produced a Hall of Fame career. At his best, he was one of the best defensive CF’s ever (probably about par with Mays and Dimaggio), and he did it with an All-Star caliber bat. He did this for 10 straight years, performing at an MVP level from time to time. I’m dubious of WAR because it relies so heavily on defensive data that may well be spotty, but everything (my own memory, scouting reports, contemporary analysis, and yes, the data) indicate that Jones was a superlative defensive CF. Much as Mickey Mantle is proof that a person can be so innately talented that he can piss away half his prowess and still be an inner circle Hall of Famer, Jones shows that if you’re lucky enough, you can half-ass your XXL ass into the Hall (and in fairness, Jones was actually very well conditioned till 06 or so.)
4. To the PED question – I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Jones used, but there’s not an iota of reliable evidence, so it doesn’t come into the discussion for me.
Indeed
I’ve always wondered about that one. If Jones were 2-3 years older than listed, his career would make a ton more sense. However, there’s never been a peep,so whatever personal doubt I might have is placed aside. And besides, what would it matter? Performance is performance, and lying about your age is hardly the same as PED’s or cheating.
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