MILB 4/17
by rdf8585 on Apr 17, 2011 12:51 PM EDT
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PrintToday's probables -
AAA - Brackman, Mazarro, Montgomery, LeBlanc
AA - J.Ramirez, Hendricks, Kawakami, Parker
High A - Lollis, Odorizzi, Morrow, Heckathorn, Cosart
Low A - Hutchison, Thornberg, Blair, Salcedo, Biddle, C.Cain, Carlos Perez, Carlos Melo
And others, as many are TBD.
MILB Scoreboard: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/scoreboard/
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Arguelles
4 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 1 bb, 5 k
not sure on pitch count but he might be done.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Mariot
3 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 bb, 5 k in relief for shutout win.
Arguelles 87-90 w/ strong offspeed and Mariot 90-92 w/ VG curve.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Hasn't gave up a run in two starts.
Still don’t believe he exists yet., need a couple more starts.
pics here
https://momentshare.com/bluerocks/
log in and can see pics of everyone on the team. they copyrighted so i won’t post them here.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Interesting to see how Fife does today
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Dodgers prospect Matt Magill
taking the hill today
by SeanMillerSavior on Apr 17, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions
Hoping for him to make a jump into maybe not a top prospect level this year
But to someone who may be able to be a productive 3 or 4 starter in his prime in the future.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Old Man River
Not ready to hang ’em up quite yet
Kevin Millwood with a 7 Inning shutout. A 1-hitter
7 -1 – 0 – 0 -4 -3
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Jimenez 2/3 with his first jack of the season
It would be nice if he could get some attention from the major scouting websites. I know the Jays system has so many impressive catchers that he’s being overshadowed but if he can hit in both the Midwest League and the Florida State League to go along with his defense, wow, watch out.
Colton Cain
I’m a fan – probably the most upside of any pitcher in the NYP last season besides Jacob Thompson & Roman Mendez in my estimation & he throws hard from the left side.
Jon Garcia with another homerun today in LoA for the Dodgers
6 on the year, OPSing over 1.200 right now.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Paul Goldschmidt
Have we met?
In all seriousness, I am intrigued by Jon Garcia. There are a plethora of nice prospects in the MWL this Spring. For the Loons, Leon Landry isn’t out of the gates quickly but he is intriguing as well.
More than doubling the next best power hitter in the MWL
Who’s 23. Nobody who is less than 22 has more than 2 HRs except for Garcia, who also has 5 doubles, in addition to 6 HRs in 43 ABs. I realize that this is a tiny sample size, but this is still awfully impressive. I’m sure this must be more common than I think, but I’m having difficulty remembering another player putting up a power display like this in the MWL at this age.
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by OldProspects on Apr 18, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Lexington Legends
Currently in the 8th inning, leading 18-9 with 20 hits. A couple big lines of note-
Jiovanni Mier- 3 for 5, 4 R scored to raise his avg. to .343
Telvin Nash and Chris Wallace – both 5 for 6 with 3 HR and a 2B, 9 RBI for Wallace, 4 for Nash. Both hitting over .400 this season.
matt harvey
5 innings 2 hits 1 unearned run 2 bb’s and 3 k’s…still sporting a 0.00 era
harvey
might have been underrated coming into this season
by son.of.sourman on Apr 17, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
70th
Higher than most but, not exactly glowing there.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
The comment is more important than the ranking
Jeff Reese (70): I am a Matt Harvey fan as well. He fell out of first round consideration after a disappointing sophomore year and a dreadful Cape Cod run where he lost his mechanics and his ability to throw strikes. Mechanical adjustments were made in the winter, and by the spring, he emerged as the ace that North Carolina hoped he would become (his draft stock followed suit). When he’s “going good,” Harvey can blow his fastball by hitters as it has plenty of arm side run and seems to jump out of his hand. He does have a tendency to elevate the pitch and will need to sharpen his command in pro ball. His power 12-6 curve ball can be just as deadly when located. His change-up needs work and there’s always that fear that whatever mechanical bug he caught in 2009 will re-emerge, but I see top of the rotation upside in Harvey.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Gotcha
I see you like the guy. I didn’t have acess to your comment.
I’m just asking, don’t get mad at me, but does it ever cross your mind that If he DOES become an ace that ranking that low will look like a mistake later?
I guess i just am trying to adopt a more critical approach to the numbering of a list I guess.
In either case I almost completely overlooked him myself so I can’t crticize this one really. I’m just saying that if he really has a REALISTIC ace upside, that alone makes him a lot higher than 70. I get it though or, Im trying to. Ranking not important I guess.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
In support of a 70 ranking
How many guys have ace upside? Let me fix that actually; how many DOZEN guys have ace upside?
Putting Harvey at 70 is basically a compromise between having CY Young potential and a checkered past that raises caution flags. If he turns into an ace, a ranking of 70 back before the 2011 season (before any first pro pitch) won’t look at all like a mistake. Especially not when it came with the kind of commentary Jeff provided.
by siddfynch on Apr 17, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure
Thats fine except thats why I included the word “realistic”. It does no justice to the term “ace upside” to say dozens of guys posses it. I disagree with with that.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
"It does no justice to the term "ace upside" to say dozens of guys posses it. I disagree with with that."
I don’t agree with that statement at all.
How many guys have the potential to hit 30 HR? Plenty. Only a small fraction will have the convergence of luck, health, development, and opportunity needed to actually make it happen.
Same way with ace pitchers…we’re trying to project development, so it very reasonable to say that many MIGHT become top-tier, even though we know very few will actually have it all come together. That doesn’t water down the term “ace” in the slightest, in my mind.
I said “dozens” just off the top of my head. I won’t got through teh exercise, but I bet I could rattle 20 off just the top of my head, without even resorting to research. Just about every major league club has a pitcher in the minors that could be an ace, and plenty have more than one. The Cardinal, one of the weaker systems around, have both Miller and Martinez, along with some breakout kid named Rosenthal who suddenly appears to have both the stats and the scouting report to back them up.
Thats Ok
I can’t argue because we don’t have a uniform idea of what that meens. I don’t really like the floor/ceiling concept at all anyways because although prospects are hard to predict I believe my task is to narrow things down as much as possible.
So, my idea of who has ace potential is different than yours and, I emphasize the word REALISTIC in realistic ace potential.
id go with Chapman, Teheran, Taillon, Pineda, Pomeranz, Miller and . . . thats about it really.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
No
There were legitimate question marks about whether he could maintain his mechanics and he hadn’t pitched in pro ball yet. Prospect rankings in general are pretty stupid; they’re nothing more than stock reports at an arbitrary point in time.
And let’s also remember that we’re only 3 starts deep into 2011.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
True enough
independent of anything else they are pointless, stupid, or whatever else.
When they are latched onto a GOAL, or an excercise of some sort, they may attain some significance.
Like if you are drafting a team or, you want the list to reflect who the best major leaguers to be will be from that year – 4,5,6 years down the road.
Why did you number your list at all if you don’t think it has significance or value?
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Because people like lists. Period.
Lists have ZERO value, the comments have SIGNIFICANT value.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
by JD Sussman on Apr 17, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't go quite that far
They have utility. They’re preferences at a given moment in time. Prospects are ever-changing though which makes them lose that utility fairly quickly.
Just don’t attach too much meaning in any given preference. My list would likely look different now than it did then (the one guy I know I’d have higher is Banuelos). The comments are where the meat is.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Personally, I don't get any value from reading a list alone.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Exactly
A list by itself isn’t really very useful.
But numbering/ranking a list of guys with comments is worth something, I think, and feels pretty natural. Within the Braves organization, you can make a lot of very interesting comments about Teheran, Delgado, and Vizcaino that are all inform us as their various strengths and uncertainties.
Ranking them 1, 2, 3 then makes it pretty clear that Teheran’s combo outweighs Delgado’s, whose combo outweighs Vizcaino’s, thereby providing some quantitative perspective of the qualitative comments…and the comments help keep the quantitative from being strictly subjective.
RE
Yeah, I can concede it can be a helpful supplement, but that wasnt context of Casejud’s comment.
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Not sure
… what my exact context was. It was more of a question really. By the way, as unbelievable as it may seem, as interested as I am in the listing – and numbering of te players – I at least as much interested in the comments or thoughts on the players.
I put a good amount of effort into the comments on my list and appreciate reading those of others.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Not from looking at someone else's list
But you can usually find some value in your own list. At the very least to organize your thoughts a bit.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
only because we are lazy
If we did OFP for players (along with full scouting reports) our players with have a value ranking which mostly would determine their order, no?
I'd still probably rank them if I were in a position to choose between the two
I may even disregard the exact order of the list, but it would help me break them up into a rough preferential order. Ranking strictly by OFP has the potential to overrate some of the lesser tools (arm strength, for one).
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
agreed
I was exagerrating about the OFP but I wouldn’t be surprised if the two lists (ranking & OFP) are very similar.
I would
10 of us could look at the same scouting report of players A and B. I highly doubt there would be a unanimous choice for which is the better prospect (as long as they are fairly close).
Which player is better is highly subjective. A high upside pitcher with high floor probably is valued a lot higher by better teams or teams with more money. They are less likely to bring value. But these teams don’t need solid value. They can buy that. They are looking for aces.
Where a team like Oakland is all about maximizing value. They don’t want to pay 10 million for a slightly above mediocre player. That is why they are more likely to value floor more.
Interesting point
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Been waiting for an outing like that from this kid.
I’d love to see a few more. There’s absolutely no reason someone with his size and stuff shouldn’t be missing more bats.
And by more...
I mean more than he has over the last year+, not more than he did today. Today was awesome.
Some jays
That Lansing lineup is intriguing, some lines from the doubleheader
Carlos Perez 1-3 2B BB slash line on the year .400/.483/.560/1.043
Jake Marisnick 4-8 2B HR slash line on the year .313/.371/.500/.871
Knecht 4-6 3 2B BB slash line on the year .310/.394/.448/.842
Crouse 2-5 2B 3B BB slash line on the year .280/.419/.600/1.019
Carlos Triunfel...
3-5, 2B, HR, BB.
The freakishly good contact ability is still there (2 K’s through his first 38 PAs). If he can start spraying line drives again he could hit his way back onto prospect lists this year. I’m not holding out any particular hope, but he’s worth keeping an eye on now that he’s a year removed from his lost season (and still only 21).
Just a hunch
… and Id love to do or see a study on it but, I’ve always had a feeling that a guy who strikes out very little busts MORE often than a similar player who strikes out even twice as much. I look at that kind of stuff a lot too.
In other words, If a player is ineffective as a hitter AND doesn’t strike out much – that concearns me MORE.
I’m talking about a guy like Kilian Sams, who Ks all the time basically. Im talking about the middle-ground there.
Example is I LIKE Franklins Ks more than I like Triunfels contact.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Ks
Why would it be better from a player development standpoint to make less contact? Is the problem that a player who makes contact, but parlays that contact into only outs, is showing a worse flaw than a player who doesn’t make contact at all?
K's
I think the idea is that if a player is striking out a lot, it can be an indicator of swinging and missing, but it also shows that the player is getting deep enough into counts to have two strikes on him. I don’t think a lot of K’s in and of itself is a positive indicator, but if you couple it with some walks (like I wrote below) I think it tells you something about the approach at the plate.
if a guy swings and misses at three straight pitches all the time, that’s obviously not a great indicator. But if a prospect strikes out after working some full counts and waiting for his pitch, I think that at least gives us some hope that some important basic skills (patience) are present.
I guess what I’m saying is that not all strikeouts are created equal.
Side note: there’s been a decent amount of analysis on strikeouts and walks, but I’ve always wanted to see more information on the KIND of strikeout, i.e. swinging vs looking. Does one kind of K denote better stuff vs better command / deception? Does one of those correlate better with sustained success in the upper levels of the minors or even approaching the majors? It’d be fun to look at, and I’d love to do it, but I don’t even know where to get the raw data for that.
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
I think
… that it isn’t at all that “Ks are good” just that, as you say, making a lot of not-hard contact is BAD thing. Its almost always characterized as “bad luck” here but, most of the time it isn’t in my opinion.
I like guys who K some because the tend make HARD contact.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Good Ks
Don’t get me wrong, I remember the long ago SABR/r.s.bb lionizing of Rob Deer and the Three True Outcomes. But I understood you to be making a different point, which was that even a player who’s doing well while not striking out might “bust” as a prospect. So it’s not so much that strikeouts are overrated as a sign that further development is necessary for a prospect — I think that’s widely shared — but that lack of strikeouts might itself be a red flag, perhaps on par with lack of walks. I was trying to pinpoint the reasoning behind that.
The reasoning
to me, is simple … just as many, if not more, players fail in the minors because they fail to hit the baseball hard consistently than fail because they can’t hit the ball at all.
Put anotther way, when I look at a group of players who have similarities say, they were 23 at Aa ball and hit 15 home runs. – I see just as many, if not more, players who fail who had 68 Ks as ones who had 113 ks.
The point is that strikouts are talked about as a factor a LOT more than, players who make a lot of contact but, dont hit for any kind of authority.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
part of that...
is that players who make contact but don’t hit the ball are very, very rarely discussed as prospects. To be on the map the need to be either incredible fielders, incredibly young for their league, or both.
You’re starting from a pretty extreme point of selection bias – most players who have amassed years of data indicating they can’t hit anything with authority are pretty bad prospects.
Triunfel has a lot of extenuating circumstances that most of those other guys don’t have, between his age and his lost season, so it’d be virtually impossible to come up with a legit sample pool for comparison’s sake.
Obviously, that makes any prospect status Triunfel still has more about excuses and speculation than performance, which has long been the knock on him. He’ll need to change that if he’s ever going to become a good prospect again. Nobody’s saying he’s there yet. The contact rate is still his only plus skill, and he’ll need to develop more if he’s going to have a prayer at a future major league career. That’s why my first post on this says he could become good “if he starts spraying line drives” with regularity.
Nobody said good contact alone can or should put a prospect on the map.
Triunfel
He’s not K’ing a lot, but you can say the same about his walks (also 2 on the season). I don’t think it’s a positive indicator in his favor, since I think it’s more a result of a hyper-aggressive approach more-so than his freakishly good contact ability. I actually don’t mind seeing strikeouts from a prospect, as long as it’s followed by a reasonable amount of walks, because it shows me that a prospect is working the count and waiting for his pitch, which to me is a positive indicator of control at the plate.
Additionally, I don’t care if his contact ability is freakishly good if that contact takes the form of weak popups and ground-outs to 2nd. He’s hitting .278 this year, hit .257 last year, .238 in 2009, and .287 in 2008.
On the flip-side, as you mentioned, he’s still only 21, so he has a chance to turn those tools into performance, but I’d say the odds are really against him. In 1418 PA’s, he has:
63 walks (4.4% walk rate)
16 HR, 9 triples, 45 doubles (5% xbh %)
Couple that with a low BA, and his bat can best be defined as “Anemic… but with potential!”
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
There's a reason I didn't say he's a top prospect
he needs to make hard contact, which is the skill the Ms thought he’d develop in spades. He was never a big dude, and never projected to hit for crazy power. The scouting book on him was a guy who could hit .300 while spraying line drives to all fields.
That he’s not there yet is a point obvious enough to be not worth mentioning. Seriously, dude, give me some credit. I’m well aware he doesn’t walk enough and that we need a lot more nights like last night before they start to mean anything. It was a good performance, mentioned in a thread designed to highlight good single-day performances.
w/r/t casejud’s pet strikeout theory…I’d also like to see some evidence before I give it one iota of weight. High strikeout guys in the low-minors have a very strong tendency to be exposed at the major-league level, even those who pair their K’s with lots of walks. For a very good present-day example, look no further than Pedro Alvarez, a player with easy 70 power, maybe even 75, who has been dreadful in the early going in his major league career. The jury’s still out on his eventual value, but he needs to make adjustments to produce at the big-league level. For past examples, take a look at guys like Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, Joe Borchard, Jason Stokes, Drew Henson, and many others. When you look at past top-100 lists, the guys who rank high who had major strikeout problems in the minors do not fare well. At all.
Even major league strikeout kings like Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds ran reasonable contact rates in the minor leagues. Ryan Howard belongs to a pretty small category of guys who k’d a lot in the minors and still succeeded in the majors. I think Mike Stanton will almost certainly join him (and Bryce Harper has a decent shot, too). But those are guys with true 80 power. There aren’t many examples of guys who ran high k-rates in the minors achieving any kind of stardom in the majors.
Striking out a lot against mediocre pitchers tends to be a very good indication that you’ll strike out even more and/or make a lot of weak contact against better pitchers.
Montgomery
6 inn, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5 BB’s, 6 k’s
Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
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If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
He also gave up 1 unearned run
Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Apr 17, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Hosmer 4-6 with a walk in the two games
batting over .400. doin work.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Hendriks
5 inn, 5 hits, 5 ER, 0 BB, 4 K’s
Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Cosart
6 inn, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 k’s
I like this guy a lot
Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Casey Crosby (Seems like you guys have forgotten about him)
4 inn, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 uneared, 2 BB, 6 k’s
Not great, but much better than his last start
Lance Berkman= Awesome, CJ Wilson= Jack@$$
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Fine start
A couple doubles seemed to have hurt his numbers in the 4th, but just getting out there and pitching is a good sign.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Yeah
He’s aguy that I worry will NRVER be able to handle any kind of workload but, dang, he was/is a good looking lefty starter – size stuff command all look big league but, he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy at all.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Crosby vs. Romero?
I dealt Crosby this spring for a draft pick that became Enny Romero. Push?
I'd take Romero at this point
He isn’t a huge health risk like Crosby and I am much more confident in Tampa Bay’s ability to develop a pitcher. Crosby is more of a lottery ticket.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Misc.
VCC and Myers with HR. Cory Rasmus K’d 8 2BB 5 H
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Nate Eovaldi
5 IP 2 H 0 R 2 BB 8 K
21 year old coming off Tommy john 3 years ago now in AA… hes a sleeper big time…
10 IP 12 Ks on the season
by matthewmafa on Apr 17, 2011 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Big Jake
Good stuff. I couldn’t find anything as to why there was such a gap between outings. Was it health related?
Tim Beckham had another multi hit game including his 2nd homer
he is back over .300 for the young season.
Eric Thames
2-3, HR, BB .419/.500/.744
Brett Lawrie 1-4, 2B .426/.481/.660
by TwoEyesForAnEye on Apr 18, 2011 2:52 AM EDT reply actions
Darnell
2-for-3 with a 2B and walk. Season line is now 514/591/771
Decker went 1-for-4 to fall to 366/500/854
Portland-New Britain
Went to the Dogs-Cats game yesterday afternoon. Took my 5-year-old, so not the best chance to do in-depth scouting reports (unless someone wants thoughts on the various mascots that populate New Britain stadium), but a few thoughts:
Joe Benson looks completely different at the plate. He’s opened up his stance a bit and isn’t fidgeting around nearly as much. He barrelled up a few balls nicely – and more importantly, I didn’t see him flail at a pitcher’s pitch in the 3 PAs I saw. He also looked very good in the field. I was a nay-sayer on him last year, but if he’s able to consistently use the approach I saw today, I’ll become a believer quickly.
Liam Hendricks’ stuff was atrocious. He couldn’t locate the fastball and if the Portland hitters hadn’t been swinging out of their shoes every time he came set, his line would have been much worse than it already was.
Ryan Lavarnway’s homer went opposite field on a swing that he completely blocked out his lower half and used only his arms. On a normal day, it was a fly ball 40 feet short of the track, but the wind was really blowing mid-afternoon (which also explains Chris Parmalee’s homer).
Middlebrooks made great contact a couple of times… and whiffed badly a few more times than that. He’s going to have trouble against advanced pitching with the current approach.
Whitenack
another strong start, beating Cosart with 6 IP, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 unearned on 3 hits.
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