What Prospects Do You Think Will Shoot Up The Rankings This Year?
by DJSlam on Mar 29, 2011 10:14 AM EDT
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PrintI'll admit, I'm still learning how to value minor league players and understand what it takes to move up a lot in the rankings. For example, over the past year I watched a guy like Jonathon Singleton make a huge push up most people's list after not being ranked in the top 100 at all. Gary Sanchez was another name I watched shoot up a ton, and Oswaldo Arcia to a a lesser extent. My question to everyone, who do you see as this year's version of those players?
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well, no..
Prospect lists are based on the previous season and (sometimes) heavily weigh production. And plenty of guys are going to jump in value over the next few weeks and months, whether from obscurity to the 100-150 range, the 100-150 range to a consensus top 100 talent, or possibly even from being a well-regarded prospect to a top one.
But no one knows which ones are going to jump – hence, the point of the post. I think it’s a great basis for discussion, personally…
There are too many young Texas arms with a chance to really turn heads this year. I also think Rudy Owens gets more respect if the improved velocity and results continue in AAA (a la Mike Minor – revised expectations and scouting report).
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
Well, I agree with most of this
except the “nobody knows” part. This can be measured nd looked at based on how good ones list is.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Yes!
Players like Jon Singleton, Nick Franklin, Hak Ju Lee were all ranked too low in general so It’ll seem like a big surprise when they jump up the lists early this year. Yes, they should have been ranked higher.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
I could see Choice moving up. The buzz on him has already started so even if he comes close to meeting these expectations, he should make a big jump.
I agree on Choice.
He seemed to get a lot of love at A’s camp this year as well. His strikeout rate could hold him back, but if he gets a handle on that, watch out.
Bryce Brentz--I have always been a fan of his.
Luke Bailey— I see him breaking out.
AJ Cole— I think with a good yoer he will move up alot.
Brentz
he sure dug himself a big hole to jump out of this year.
some
david perez, xander bogaerts, luke jackson, aderlin rodriguez, chuckie jones, felix sterling, aaron altherr, junior arias, levon washington, albert campos, taijuan walker, parker bridwell, ariel ovando
interesting
Perez, Bogaerts, Jackson and Campos are all guys I took a shot on this year in my dynasty league. The other guys were pretty much taken before I could nab them except for Sterling, and I regret not taking a chance on him.
by blackoutyears on Mar 29, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
All I really know is the Braves prospects
So, I can only list them.
On the radar guys:
Matt Lipka, RHB – could have a big jump with a decent season
Carlos Perez, LHP – Just moved to full season ball and a better showcase for his talents
Off the radar guys:
Adam Milligan, LHB – Big time bat who fell off the radar with an injury marred season
?? – there’s a couple of DSL guys (an OF and a P or 2) that could make a jump, but sorry, I can’t think of their names right now.
Some would say watch out for Christian Bethancourt and Edward Salcedo, but I think both are still at least a year away from a big jump. Bethancourt is simply too raw @ the plate, while Salcedo is still shaking off some rust.
Andrelton Simmons
He’s already an elite defensive SS and I think his bat will come around this season.
Some Rangers that I think will get some more notice
Neil Ramirez
David Perez
Jorge Alfaro
Luke Jackson
Mike Olt
Roman Mendez
>mfw
I might add Cody Buckel to that list
On the minus side, it’s Engel Beltre will fall off the rankings cliff if he doesn’t make some progress, and Martin Perez might, too, if he doesn’t handle AA better (though I think most overreacted to his struggles last year). Robbie Erlin, too, might fall back a bit if he slows down as he moves up a level.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
From Goldstein on 3/18
Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers
Ramirez has generally been seen as a disappointment since signing for $1 million dollars out of the 2007 draft, but he finally began the show the big stuff he showed in high school at the end of the 2010 season and has been one of the talks of spring by bumping his fastball up to 97 mph while flashing a pair of plus secondary pitches. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on this year at High-A Myrtle Beach.
The emphasis is mine. If this is the case, Ramirez might shoot up into the top 50 by the end of the year.
do you know if that was in a short stint, ie as a reliever?
Either way it’s impressive, but to even touch 97 in a start is more telling.
Yeah, he's not going to work consistently that high
but his FB is still a touch higher this year it seems, and it looks like he’ll have plus velocity.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
A few LOW level guys...with big potential
Carlos (Matias) Martinez, SP, STL
Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, KCR
Julio Rodriguez, SP, PHI
Jake Thompson, SP, TAM
Possibilities
I’d say a couple that could jump overall quite a bit would be:
Aaron Sanchez
Jake Thompson
Liam Hendriks
Carlos Perez (Atl)
Cory Vaughn
Tim Melville
Matt Szczur
Luke Jackson
Szczur and Vaughn
would be at the top of my list, along with Jesse Biddle, Josh Vitters, and Esteilon Peguero (all I’ve seen is video, but I love his swing.)
by PrincetonCubs on Mar 30, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Great call on Jesse Biddle
I agree completely.
3 guys I am watching
I think these 3 could really shoot up this year
P Felix Sterling
OF Michael Choice
OF AJ Pollock
Casey Crosby
One of the Detroit papers reported he was clocked at 96 or 97 in a recent minor league game. If healthy, his future could be very bright indeed.
I feel like we have talked about this subject 3 or 4 times already this offseason
My #1 candidate is Yorman Rodriguez. That guy is ready to break out in a BIG way.
I will also echo the Lipka pick. There are very few quality SS’s in the minors, but he is definitely up with the cream of the crop in terms of potential. A solid full season debut would cement his status in top 100 lists, and a real breakout could land him in the top 50.
fwiw, Adam Foster saw Yorman in Arizona and wasn't impressed
Both guys are definitely more athlete than ballplayer still. They both have a lot of work to do, but I am optimistic they can provide some offense from up the middle (or corner w/ premium defense) positions.
http://twitter.com/#!/AdamWFoster/status/51692843491803136
http://twitter.com/#!/AdamWFoster/status/51719836954402816
Matt Lipka
Do you think he will stay at SS? Obviously he’s still a pup & there were promising signs last summer athletically, but OF (albeit hopefully CF) seems a likely long term landing spot for the former Texas HS football star.
I think it is probably 50/50 whether he sticks at SS
This year will tell us a lot about his defensive future IMO.
+1
Definitely.
I know you’ve been following all the Adam stuff on twitter, Gobroks, but for those who haven’t, the reports have been fantastic from the Royals backfields in Arizona.
Adam
I’ve heard the reports have been good, but I haven’t seen exactly what they are. he’s a guy I’m getting very excited about, for sure. Him and Peter Tago, though I do like Adam more. Someone called him “this year’s Shelby Miller”, which might be hyperbole, but it’s still exciting.
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
Jake Marisnick
will be a consensus top 100 player
Padres that might jump in the rankings
Matt Lollis RHP – Big (6-8 260) strong kid that has a hard natural sink to his FB and dominated Low A as a 19 year old (1.66ERA – 54.1IP – 7.5k/9 – 2.2BB/9)
Juan Oramas LHP – Another 19 year old. Pitch exceptional for LE in the CAL league last year, even being an extreme flyball pitcher. Overall between low and high A (with grand majority of innings coming from high A :84IP to 15IP) 2.73ERA – 99IP – 10.5k/9 – 2.6BB/9. Had a problem with HR in high A (10 allowed in 84 IP).
Here are a few
Oscar Taveras
Ryan Lavarnway
Mike Olt
I like Lavarnway
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Mar 30, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Randal Grichuk
FAbio martinez
Garret Richards
Brandon Wood 4 Prez
by miketrout on Mar 29, 2011 8:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
And Reggie golden
Brandon Wood 4 Prez
by miketrout on Mar 29, 2011 8:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jeurys Familia
The almost entirely depends on his ability to to not walk people. Last year at 20 years old in A+, he had an excellent 10.19 K/9, he keeps the ball in the yard and on the ground. He fatal flaw was his 5.5 BB/9, but he’s still very young and can cut down on that number, and never had a problem with walks his previous two seasons.
International free agents and first year players
Luis Heredia, Adonis Cardona, Phillips Castillo, Nick Castellanos, AJ Cole, Renato Nunez, Cam Bedrosian
Speaking of IFAs, does anybody know if Eskarlin Vasquez has signed with an MLB team?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Mar 30, 2011 12:58 AM EDT reply actions
Renato
read some buzz about him but then saw some video and am confused because he looked incredibly raw and inconsistent, so I doubt he would do too much this year. Maybe in the future but I’m not sure even then… then again Im not a scout sooo
For the Royals
RHP-Jason Adam
RHP-Tim Melville
C-Salvador Perez
3B-Cheslor Cuthbert.
Agreed
On all 4 actually.
I think Jason Adam is the name of the moment but I am reasonably confident in Tim Melville’s ability to get back on track in 2011. I still think he profiles to be on the level as just about all of the litany of upper tier KC guys in terms of upside/talent if he makes the requisite strides. He doesn’t seem to get the slack afforded Aaron Crow by a lot of prospecters even though the latter is older & seems unlikely to stick in a rotation (reminds me of Kyle Farnsworth some).
I'll take a shot at the Dodgers
I see Sands showing up (or a lot higher) on a ton of lists next year. I think he’s poised at another really good year and gets a shot at the end of the year with the Dodgers.
Another one with the Dodgers will be Zach Lee. Everything that I hear about this guy it just makes my opinion of him keep getting higher and higher. His change sounds like it could be seriously great.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
I like your pick with Lee.
As for Sands, do you think his age (23, turning 24 this year) will affect his ranking?
You might be right about the age affecting him. It’s one of the reasons he’s not on everyone’s list right now. If they don’t hold his age against him and he repeats the year he had last year I don’t see how people can’t take him seriously, even if he is at 24 next year. I just think that means he has no chance of being a top 30 prospect, but I think he could make top 50.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Sands and...
Agree on Sands, and other advanced guys who will be seen as having been underrated include Charles Blackmon and Zack Cozart. Lower down the ranks, Lipka is another guy who will shoot up lists, and even further down Carlos Martinez could well be a top 20 guy next year.
Big risers for TOR hopefully
Gustavo Pierre
Brad Glenn
Santiago Nessy
Pierre was really improving his hitting towards the end of last season, and it’s carried to this spring. If he can hit like that for a full season his tools will see him shoot up lists.
Glenn started hot last season before a shoulder injury stunted his development, he’s back healthy and is hitting well again, not a top prospect by any means but wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the Jays top 20 next year.
Nessy is a very young catcher with decent pop and good game calling skills, i’m expecting him to turn heads in his first taste of ball in the US, similar to the way Perez has this season. He’s not near Perez in terms of polish, but has similar upside with years to spare.
I've seen Pierre at his worst and at his best
The kid really improved at the plate by the end of the year.
Some Cards sleepers
Trevor Rosenthal
John Gast
Oscar Taveras
Nick Longmire
Matt Carpenter
Ryan Jackson
The first four could show up on prospect lists next year; the latter two, more likely that they move from obscure to legit major leaguers (which is often not sexy enough to show up on prospect lists).
Rudy Owens
Won’t be ranked again, but this time it’ll be because he burned his rookie eligibility. It will be almost exactly the same as Travis Wood last year, and the perceptive few in the prospecting community will pause for a second and think that there might be some kind of pattern here in who is being overlooked.
He will, however, jump to #1 IN MY HEART.
But seriously, jumpers for the Pirates:
Luis Heredia
Starling Marte
Bryan Morris
Jeff Locke
Zach Von Rosenberg
I think if Heredia pitches in real competition this year, he’s going to blow a couple of minds. I could see upside whores like Law and Goldstein flinging him up their rankings.
Marte is a good ballplayer and a very good pure hitter, and if he stays healthy and shows a little development power-wise, he’ll get a lot of attention. He’s not really young anymore (22) but he’ll be in AA, so if he hits over .300 with an OPS over .800 like he has the last 2 years, he could sneak into some lists.
Morris and Locke both had nice years last year for Altoona’s Championship team. Morris will start in AAA, and his good stuff should have him knocking on the door in Pittsburgh by September. Locke will start in AA, but if he takes another step and continues his improvement from 2010, he could look pretty sexy during ranking time next offseason. Neither of these 2 are very young (Morris 24, Locke 23), so they seem like precisely the type of guy that won’t be ranked no matter what they do, but that doesn’t mean they won’t deserve a jump.
ZVR is intriguing, as he was a big name prep pitcher from 09 who will get his first full-season assignment this year. He pitched well down the stretch in SS-State College and has the pedigree to bust out in a big way. He was throwing 88-90 in Spring Training, and the hope is he can climb that up 2-3 mph during the season and continue developing his promising secondary stuff. He’s a tall dude and will only be 20 all year, so there’s a lot to dream on.
Taillon and Sanchez will also have very good years, but they don’t have too much to jump. I have no idea what to expect from Allie. In any event, I don’t think he’ll do anything to jump up the rankings, especially since he’s decently rated on a few lists.
Some guys I will be following closely this year.
Arizona- Tyler Skaggs, Tyler Linton, Bobby Borchering
Atlanta- Matt Lipka, Todd Cunningham, Andrelton Simmons
Baltimore- Xavier Avery, Mychal Givens, Matt Hobgood
Bosotn- Garin Cecchini, Madison Younginer, Kendall Volz
Cubs- Austin Kirk, AJ Morris, Reggie Golden, Ben Wells
White Sox- Kyle Bellamy, Andy Wilkins, Nevin Griffith
Cincinnati- Drew Cisco, Ryan LaMarre, Yasmani Grandal
Cleveland- Tyler Holt, Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky
Colorado- Tyler Matzek, Peter Tago, Chad Bettis
Detroit- Drew Smyly, Nick Castellanos, Francisco Martinez
Florida- Christian Yellich, Kyle Skipworth, Dan Jennings
Houston- Mike Foltynewicz, Telvin Nash, Austin Wates
Kansas City- Jake Odorizzi, Jason Adam, Brett Eibner
Anaheim- Kaleb Cowart, Donn Roach, Kole Calhoun
LA- Garrett Gould, Aaron Miller, Leon Landry
Milwaukee- Hunter Morris, D’Vontrey Richardson, Jimmy Nelson
Minnesota- Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, Carlos Gutierrez
Mets- Reese Havens, Matt Den Decker, Matt Harvey
Yankees- Pat Venditte, Slade Heathcott, Angelo Gumbs
Oakland- Grant Green, Yordy Cabrera, Max Stassi
Philadelphia- Jesse Biddle, Domingo Santana, Cameron Rupp
Pittsburgh- Colton Cain, Brooks Pounders, Matt Curry
St Louis- Tyrell Jenkins, Jordan Swagerty, Seth Blair
San Diego- Everett Williams, Donovan Tate, Keyvius Sampson
San Francisco- Matt Graham, Zack Wheeler, Chris Dominguez
Seattle- Marcus Littlewood, Rich Poythress, Taijuan Walker
Tampa- Josh Sale, Hak-Ju Lee, Chris Archer
Texas- Luke Jackson, Justin Grimm, Jurickson Profar
Toronto- Griffin Murphy, Aaron Sanchez, Sam Dyson
Washington- AJ Cole, Tyler Hanks, Rick Hague
Some of these guys I feel will be among the top 10 in team rankings while the ones that are already among the top 10 I feel could move up in the top 100 rankings.
I'm just a dude who likes talking to other dudes about other dudes.........in a straight way.
-1 Rich Poythress...
his ceiling is solid regular, not star (and I’m doubtful he’ll hit that). Nothing against him as a player, he just doesn’t have the tools to be a top prospect.
A couple for me...
Garin Cecchini is the big one. I’ll also give a shout out to Daniel Fields, CF, Detroit – he’ll be repeating the FSL after being rushed there for his first full season. Will be interesting to watch.
I’m on record as a huge Dellin Betances fan and think he could jump into the top-15 prospects (and quiet the haters calling him a future reliever) with a first half similar to his second half last year.
Call me crazy, but I could see a big bounceback from Chorye Spoone this year. He’s now a few years removed from surgery. We’ll see how he looks in the first month, but he’s still peripherally on my radar.
Some More from the land of already-ranked prospects
Arodys Vizcaino is kind of an obvious one, but he’s back in the upper-90s already. He should shoot into the top-50 at the very least just by being healthy, and I could see a top-25 ranking in his future since he has virtually no chance of graduating to the majors this year (unless it’s as a late-season reliever, which won’t get him past the 50 IP barrier).
I thought Matt Davidson was underrated this off-season, and I think him continuing to do his thing in high-A will get him closer to the top-50.
I think Anthony Ranaudo will almost certainly be a top-50 prospect when the year’s over, possibly top-15.
And finally, I could see Jonathan Singleton pushing all the way to the top-10 or even top-5 with a good year. I’m a bigger fan of him than most.
Oh, and Brandon Workman.
By all accounts he looked absolutely filthy this spring.
Am with you on Matt Davidson & Jon Singleton
Davidson is beyond underrated & I think he sticks at 3b too.
I also agree on Jonathan Singleton. I think a lot of peoples’ reticence to go ‘all in’ on him might be due to the fact that he is likely destined for LF (or be a 1b who may not develop true plus power), but his approach is advanced & I believe in his hit tool as you seem to. He’s a Top 20 to 25 guy for me now but I think that he likely ascend further in 2011 in terms of the rankings of others.
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