UCLA's Gerrit Cole-The Next Stephen Strasburg?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 19, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
Email
Print
Prior to about a week ago, Rice University's Anthony Rendon was the front-runner to be the #1 pick in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft in June 2011. That was before some well read scouts went out and saw Gerrit Cole pitch last Friday night.
ESPN's Keith Law penned a piece on Saturday where he named UCLA's pitching prospect Gerrit Cole as the #1 pick in the 2011 draft. Cole threw six no-hit innings only to lose the game, but Law was so impressed with his performance and his arsenal of pitches, he went on to opine this:
Cole's performance, coupled with his size, athleticism and delivery, cemented his status as the
top college arm in this draft -- and it illuminated many of the reasons he compares favorably to
Law compared Cole's changeup to Johan Santana's changeup, and said "his changeup is better than Strasburg's breaking ball was at the time he was drafted."
More after the jump:
Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks, in the recent BP podcast with Kevin Goldstein, stated the following-"Strasburg was the best pitching prospect we have ever seen, but I think Cole will be the better major league pitcher." Parks stated he likes Cole's body, his changeup and has a cleaner delivery when compared to Strasburg.
He penned this piece over at BP earlier this week and concluded his article with this:
Summation: Cole is the best pitcher in the collegiate ranks, and capable of pitching in a major-league rotation as of yesterday. He wears his well-above-average arsenal well, with the delivery and mechanics to log heavy innings while maintaining his stuff; Cole can miss bats with all four of his pitches. The day Cole enters the professional ranks is the day he becomes the best pitching prospect in baseball, and given the overall maturity of his arsenal, his stay in the minors should be very brief. OFP: 68; future ace at the major league level.
Parks gave Cole's arsenal of pitches 60s and 65s with one 70, whereas his future grades were mostly 70s and 75s.
When asked on Twitter, Baseball America's Jim Callis has this to say in response to some questions on Cole;
Could see him in bigs by end of 2012. @jaypers413: How many years will Gerrit Cole likely need in the minors? #mlbdraft #UCLA
At this point, I'm torn. Can't go wrong either way. @mikeshaeffer: Would you still take Rendon over Cole if Cole keeps this up? #mlbdraft
It is safe to say Cole will be talked about plenty between now and mid June, but I am not sure how much higher the hype can go when Strasburg comps are being tossed around, not that they are wrong. But, you can also say that you have to love to be in the Pirates position as they get to choose between Cole and Rendon, and I am sure will stew over the decision over the next 3 months.
But should the Pirates draft and sign Cole, they will have 3-4 excellent pitching prospects in their system with Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Lus Heredia to go along with Rudy Owens and Bryan Morris. Slowly but surely, it appears the Buccos rebuild is coming together, and they have to be excited about the 2011 draft.
77 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Rendon
You have to take the hitter, he also plays a good third base as Alvarez is a 1st baseman. If Cole has Strasburg’s mechanics, he is a ticking time bomb as that motion is awful for pitchers.
Unfortunately, in light of the list of Rice pitchers that John posted a few days ago, I agree. Cole’s an amazing pitcher, but Strasburg comparisons are a double-edged sword. I’d go with Rendon.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Mar 19, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
There were a number of questions about Stas's mechanics I saw before his injury
but I’m confused with this logic, are people comparing Cole to Stras due to their high-end stuff, or is it that their mechanics are the same? I don’t see how the former would mean Cole is an injury risk, just that his stuff is as good. Just saying their comparable does not mean they are exactly equal and Strasburg’s fate will be Cole’s. I’m not familiar with Cole’s mechanics, are they a concern? Parks in the quote above seems to think they aren’t.
Cole's mechanics
are nothing like Strasburg’s. Where did this idea come from? Cole has shorter arm action without the whippiness of Strasburg’s and Cole’s velo is the result of a very fast arm. He also does not throw as hard as Strasburg, generally sitting 95/96 and touching 97/98. Keep in mind that Cole also featured plus velo in h.s. Some evaluators were a little worried that Stras had improved from fringy velo (high-80s) to plus-plus velo in a little over a year.
by blackoutyears on Mar 19, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg has a late cocking phase
Having the ball cocked and ready to come forward when the stride foot hits the ground is the most crucial element in preventing pitchers arm/shoulder injuries. Strasburg is late with the ball. Any talent evaluator should know this by now and wouldn’t pronounce a pitchers mechanics clean if they had this issue.
yeah, thats what I didnt get
just because people are comparing them to each other doesn’t mean their mechanics are all the sudden the same. Doesn’t sound to me like they’re even all that comparable, since their best secondary pitches aren’t the same. the only reason the Stras comparison is coming up is because people think Cole might deserve some of the same hype, as far as I can tell the comparison stops there.
Rendon still
Cole has narrowed the gap considerably, but I just can’t pass up a premier defensive third baseman with that kind of offensive skill.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
The Pirates need hitters
we have enough pitchers at this point, but we have no run producers.
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Any statement beginning with the words 'In truth' is almost always a lie." Mordred Deschain
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
we have enough pitchers at this point
Uh, no, the Pirates do not have enough pitching. They have 2 guys with ace upside, 1 guy who may have that kind of upside, a slew of mid-to-back of the rotation type of prospects and a slew of bottom of the rotation MLB starters.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
You never have enough pitching, agreed
but if I’m the Pirates I probably take Rendon and load up on pitchers later in the draft and in international FA. The lower risk of a position prospect means I’m not passing on someone with Rendon’s abilities.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
Yeah, I take Rendon too
It just seemed strange to me to see someone say the Pirates were flush with pitching.
Both of these guys are virtual locks to be among next year’s top 5 prospects in baseball so the Pirates can’t really go wrong either way.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
So long as they continue on their current path
I think it happens. I had serious reservations with Cole, but his new-found efficiency and the development of his change is a bit of a game changer.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Yeah
the fastball/change-up 2 pitch combo might be my favorite 2 pitch combo, and Cole’s development of the change up to go along with the already plus curve is really deadly. If the efficiency and command hold up at the MLB level, he’s a true ace in my opinion.
Ray, buddy
I’m going to go ahead and fix that lead paragraph for you, because your version didn’t make any sense.
Prior to about a week ago, Rice Universities’ Anthony Rendon was the front-runner to be the #1 pick in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft in June 2011. That was before some well read scouts went out and saw him pitch last Friday night.
Prior to about a week ago, Rice University’s Anthony Rendon was the front-runner to be the #1 pick in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft in June 2011. That was before some well read scouts went out and saw Gerrit Cole pitch last Friday night.
by son.of.sourman on Mar 19, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
ugh
thanks man….it happens
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 19, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't worry about it
He was always going to college. The Yankees were his favorite team and could have offered him a ton of money. If they couldn’t have signed him, no other teams would have.
That’s the way it goes sometimes. You guys have a ton of great prospects in the pipeline anyway. Besides, if Cole really does become all that the scouts say he can be, you know that won’t be the end of his involvement with the Bombers.
by Smiley Face from Hell on Mar 19, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Hype
I love how it seems that “once in a generation” or “once a decade” type players in the draft are actually in the draft about once a year now (at least it seems that way to me).
+1
It’s probably a matter of making the MLB Draft interesting.
More than just marketing
If you look at who, exactly, has been labeled “once in a gen”, can we really dispute it? Was Strasburg not? Harper? We’ll see about Cole? But the last three drafts HAVE had special talents.
by richie dagger on Mar 19, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Elite talents to be sure
The problem is with giving them hyperbolic designations. I don’t think that’s a big problem within the draft community, more with those who hype the draft a few weeks prior.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Strasburg's stuff deserved all the hyperbolic designations it received
And proved that in his short time in the majors last year.
Not afraid to nitpick
Good point
Although I’m not sure the layman can differentiate.
Don't forget 2008
Four out of the top 5 in 2008 either have already shown themselves to be special or have the potential to be: Alvarez, Hosmer, Matusz, Posey. That’s a pretty sick top 5.
by Smiley Face from Hell on Mar 19, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
You forgot to mention Tim Beckham...
Oops!
Funny thing is, 2008 was regarded at the time to be a lesser draft.
agreed
they have to hype the draft to attract more eyeballs
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 19, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
There are a ton of players in drafts
whose ceilings can compare to “once in a generation” guys. The problem is a vast majority of them don’t work out.
by CaptainCanuck on Mar 19, 2011 2:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Only reason to not draft Rendon 1 is the injuries....
which unfortunately do exist.
I’m glad the hype is catching up to Cole because he’s legit. I’ve said before that he’s a Clemens-esque kind of talent and there’s not a single red flag on the guy beyond the “he’s a pticher” red flag.
This was my only real reason I went Cole over Rendon
Since Rendon has some injury risk, that overcame the TNSTAAPP concerns with drafting a pitcher in the first round. That and imagining a rotation with Taillon Cole and Allie as 1 2 3 did it for me. Can’t go wrong either way though, no doubt.
hmmmmm
Only reason to not draft Rendon 1 is the INJURY.
fixed it for you. Rendon had 1 injury. that’s it. why are people all like “he’s an injury risk” now because of that?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Mar 20, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Well it is hampering him in the early part of his draft year...
which happens to be timeframe we currently exist in.
Rendon’s got time to show off, but it’s not happening now and Cole is legitimately talented.
Hmm
Two torn ligaments in right ankle-2009
Broken right ankle-2010
Sore right shoulder-2011
I’m not saying he’s necessarily an injury risk, and his sore shoulder was hardly serious (only relegated him to DH), but he has had multiple injuries.
he has had multiple injuries.
Yeah. Nothing to “fix” with the plural.
by blackoutyears on Mar 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
None of the injuries individually would cause much concern, but the fact that he keeps getting hurt IS a concern.
Eh
I mean, the ankle is a bit of a concern, but the shoulder doesn’t concern me at all.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
They are both studs, but unless Rendon is significantly better than Cole, you got to go Cole if you believe he has a good chance of being an ace.
it’s not often that you see an ace pitcher go on the FA market, and then the big market teams will almost always get them.
Backwords
BK, that logic is actually backwards. Unless Cole is viewed as the superior talent by the Pirates, they have to take Rendon because we know pitchers get hurt a lot more (reason why a top hitting prospect is worth almost double a top pitching prospect).
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Mariners picking #2.
Doesn’t matter who the Pirates choose, we get an elite talent. Feels good man.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 19, 2011 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Maybe
If Cole goes #1, the M’s pass on Rendon because he’s a right handed bat? :)
by CaptainCanuck on Mar 19, 2011 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
park factors?
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
That would be a huge overreaction, I think
Even if the park depresses his HR totals a bit, so what? His hit tool is very good and he’ll provide excellent defense at third.
Bullpen Banter
Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Dream on Diamondback fan. ;)
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 21, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
We probably won’t take him anyway even if he did slip.
by CaptainCanuck on Mar 24, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
As a Giants fan...
We’ve all seen that accumulating a lot of pitching talent has its benefits. Everyone needs it, so I’d take Cole. To say he’s an otherwordly talent like everyone was saying about Strasburg two years ago is unfair. As a nearly ready college pitcher, he wouldn’t be far away from contributing to the big club.
by OnDeck_Matt on Mar 19, 2011 2:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The most significant part of comparing him to Strasburg
is that he’s talented enough that no one is laughing.
How has Cole's command looked so far this year?
by CaptainCanuck on Mar 19, 2011 2:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Parks posted a detailed scouting report on Cole over at BP
I would highly recommend checking it out:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13222
Cole, UCLA’s ace, took the loss on Friday, but nobody really cared. He was dominant through six innings, with front-rotation stuff, a major-league body, and more poise and polish than I was led to believe he owned.
Cole lost his above-average command as game went on; he threw strikes but caught too much plate and started to elevate his pitches.
His main weakness is the fact that he is facing college competition, so it’s easy for him to get out of trouble by throwing smoke rather than by sequence and fine-tuned location.
Those were cherry-picked out of the entire report. Sounds like he still has some work to do, but Parks put a 55 on his current command, with a 60 future potential.
Is this decision reminding anyone else of Prior vs. Mauer back in 2001?
by Smiley Face from Hell on Mar 19, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions
More like Prior vs. Teixeira
Tex dropped a bit due to bonus demands.
Hey Ray
might be a good idea to post this over at mlbbonusbaby.com and see what discussion that community has to say about the two players as well.
thanks
great idea. I will post as a fanpost.
thanks again.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Mar 19, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Pirates fan
I would feel a lot more excited about this deep draft if the Pirates didn’t have to wait through ~60 picks before the first pick of round 2.
The system is broken. This year should be all the evidence anybody needs.
Rays pick 11 times before the Pirates pick a second time. Something aint right.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree
Comp picks should be based on record. For example, 1st round supplemental should be only for bottom 10 teams, second round supplemental for bottom 20 teams. Just an idea, but need something to fix imbalance and get worse teams better quicker. Although, to be fair, the Pirates have had top picks for close to 20 years now, and still have failed – fairness can only do so much if you have piss poor scouting.
by cookiedabookie on Mar 21, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Pirates could have had a good comp pick
if they had held on to Dotel instead of trading him at the deadline. They would have pick #43, which is the 1st Type B pick. They could have traded for Chad Qualls, which would have given them pick #53 also. Instead they got McDonald and Lambo from the Dodgers and held on to the player that Qualls would have cost them. It was their choice.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
Related FanShots on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
