gore51 top-151 (50 write ups)

but I still have Trout over him. I don’t buy Harper becoming a good defender, above average is about his ceiling, and I don’t see him making a ton of contact or walk enough to have a great OBP. When he does make contact, it’ll be scary, but right now, I like Trout’s ability to produce all across the board over Harper’s standout power and arm strength.

145 is Tanner Scheppers, got messed up in my spreadsheet somehow. Thanks for the notice!

That’s justified, as it’s community consensus that Hosmer is a top-10 guy at the very least. However, if you read the comment and his placement in terms of other 1B, you’ll realize that I like Hosmer quite a bit.

But I just don’t buy that Rizzo will hit enough to be anything other than an average 1B.

I view him mostly as a guy who can hit around .265/.330/.460 at his peak, which is good, but for a 1B it’s not elite, or anything to get excited about. It’s about the same as what Gaby Sanchez did last year for FLA (minus about 10 points of slugging and adding about 10 points of OBP). Rizzo will provide better D than Sanchez, but it’s not going to be at Daric Barton’s level. I see above average power, but average contact and strike zone discipline, which is simply not enough to be a great prospect at 1B. That being said, he is one of the guys in the 150-175 range, likely around ~160

But he’s a slight below average defender at 1B at best (and I can’t imagine him being any good in the OF or at 3B) and he’s got the right-right profile. Also, although I’m no swing expert, I remember reading something at projectprospect.com about his swing, and the verdict was not a good one. That being said, he has tremendous power, should show at least average contact, and will walk enough to make his bat play at the MLB level, but he just has too many holes and question marks to put into my top-150.

Reggie Jackson isn’t a bad comparison I guess. Of course, there is no guarantee he gets near his upside.

It’s not so much that Smoak was a better prospect, but I was still rating 1B prospects more highly in the past than I did this year. Last year’s Justin Smoak still probably gets the slightest nod over this year’s Eric Hosmer due to the elite walk rate and switch hitting abilities. However, for 2011 and ahead, I think I’ll take Hosmer over Smoak (despite the fact that, as I mentioned above, I still believe in Smoak to turn it around).

Comparing Montero’s season in AAA to Hosmer’s in A+/AA, don’t really get the point. Montero destroyed A+/AA at the age of 19 though he may not of had the eye that Hosmer did, that’s saying a lot.

And the gap between the two is probably closer than it appears on the list. Also, if Montero is (big if) able to catch a game or two a week down the road, that adds a nice bit of value. However, his big selling point is the bat, and I feel he’ll have better contact and power than Hosmer, but Hosmer has a superior control of the strikezone.

Regarding the .375 wOBA vs. .430 wOBA, those minor league numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. Montero and Hosmer are essentially the same age (separated by just over a month), and Montero spent the entire year last year crushing AAA pitching at age 21, while Hosmer split the year between high-A and AA. While his 50 game AA career was extremely impressive, it’s not as impressive as crushing AAA ball at the same age for the whole season, not to mention any negative impacts Montero’s bat was taking from playing the most physically demanding position in baseball.

This is embarrassing, Richards would be on the list, probably around #86 (ahead of Harvey, behind Stewart) but I forgot to add him!

The way I made this list was in excel. First, I compiled a list of around 250-300 prospects in one column, either guys that I really liked, or were ranked by BA/BP/etc., or guys that were getting hyped. When I started ranking them in the list of 150, I would bold each of the guys in the first column that had been added to the list already to avoid double adding players (not 100% fool proof, as when I added what I though was Tanner Scheppers @#145, I accidentally copied and pasted Tyrell Jenkins for the 2nd time, doh!). After getting the list of 150, I’d tinker with it some more, moving guys up and down as I felt necessary, and then added the writeups. Somewhere along the first process, I bolded Garrett Richards without adding him. I really like his arm, and I apologize for the mistake. Thanks for catching it!

I went ahead and adding Richards in, putting him at #86, between Harvey and Stewart.

but Syndergaard and Sanchez are extremely close (6 spots in the 125-135 range is next to nothing, they could be flipped and it would hardly make a difference). The only thing that prevented Sanchez from not ranking higher (and above Syndergaard, and possibly Wojciechowski) was his poor command. However, if he strengthens that in 2011, he could be a big riser, into the top-60 is a definite possibility.

However, the reason he is ranked 6 and 23 spots beneath BP and BA is because I don’t really buy his move to 3B to be a long term solution and he doesn’t seem to have the desire to be anything better than an average corner outfielder, and even that I’m not sure he’ll achieve. The “redass attitude” comments about Lawrie are usually taken drastically out of proportion in my mind, but the comments that he lacks the desire to improve his defense are generally worrisome to me. A player not committed in improving every aspect of his game is terribly confusing for me, unless they simply do not understand the importance of playing both sides of the game. If he turns committed to defense, and successfully stays at 3B, becomes an above average corner outfielder, or (for some odd reason) successfully commits back to playing 2B (or even C for that matter lol), Lawrie could easily be a top-30 prospect next year.

Regarding Thames, it’s more that I don’t buy that he’ll be anything more than a small liability on defense, and probably will end up as a DH so I see him as an all-bat guy. His power is good, but his contact and plate discipline is not strong enough to justify rating him on the top-150.

Regarding the actual question:

Is this a personal preference against average D outfielders/corner infielders in keeping with your lower 1B ratings or something specific to the two prospects?

Hope this helps!

Here’s what John said for why:

First of all, Jenrry Mejia is not a technical rookie since he exceeded the service time requirement last year. However, he is still under the 50-inning limit, and I’ve decided to include him in the book since I get lots of questions about him.

but the reason they get ranked low is that it is extremely difficult for them to even become league average 1B, since in order to even be average, you have to completely mash the baseball at the highest level of play, which is arguably the most difficult thing to do in sports. Therefore, in order to make a prospect list as a 1B prospect, you have to give confidence that you will be able to hit, hit, and hit some more at the major league level, and since so many of these guys having holes in their offensive game that don’t inspire confidence that they could hit at said level, I feel that is a better choice to leave them off the list, you know?