Community Positional Prospect #50
by gatling on Feb 5, 2011 10:48 AM EST
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With 33.9% of the vote, Travis d'Arnaud is elected Community Positional Prospect #49.
RESULTS:
Nolan Arenado: 21.4%
Chris Nelson: 3.6%
Travis d'Arnaud: 33.9%
Hak-Ju Lee: 25.0%
Matt Lipka: 1.8%
Engel Beltre: 3.6%
Zach Cox: 1.8%
Donovan Tate: 0%
Reese Havens: 0%
Matt Davidson: 1.8%
Kaleb Cowart: 3.6%
Charlie Blackmon: 1.8%
Joe Benson: 1.8%
CANDIDATES:
Nolan Arenado
Hak-Ju Lee
Charlie Blackmon
Mike Olt
IN THE ROTATION:
Ben Revere(#47-0%), Kaleb Cowart(#47-2.1%), Yorman Rodriguez(#47-0%), Jake Marisnick(#47-0%), Joe Benson(#47-2.1%), Fernando Martinez(#48-2.1%), Brett Eibner(#47-0%), Chris Nelson(#49-3.6%), Matt Lipka(#49-1.8%), Zach Cox(#49-1.8%), Donovan Tate(#49-0%), Reese Havens(#49-0%), Matt Davidson(#49-1.8%)
TESTERS:
Kyle Parker, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Cumberland, Eric Thames, Max Kepler, Adeiny Hechevarria
- #01 - MIKE TROUT - 48.0%
- #02 - BRYCE HARPER - 38.1%
- #03 - DOMONIC BROWN - 30.1% (53.3%)
- #04 - JESUS MONTERO - 47.9%
- #05 - ERIC HOSMER - 35.9%
- #06 - DUSTIN ACKLEY - 37.7% (52.5%)
- #07 - WIL MYERS - 60.5%
- #08 - MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 58.8%
- #09 - DESMOND JENNINGS - 46.4%
- #10 - BRANDON BELT - 42.0%
- #11 - FREDDIE FREEMAN - 46.2%
- #12 - MANNY MACHADO - 50.0%
- #13 - BRETT LAWRIE - 40.5%
- #14 - AARON HICKS - 35.3%
- #15 - NICK FRANKLIN - 27.8% (55%)
- #16 - BRETT JACKSON - 28% (50.7%)
- #17 - LONNIE CHISENHALL - 36.2%
- #18 - DEVIN MESORACO - 32.1% (51.4%)
- #19 - DEREK NORRIS - 41.4%
- #20 - GARY SANCHEZ - 19.5% (49.2%)
- #21 - GRANT GREEN - 27.0%
- #22 - WILMER FLORES - 24.3%
- #23 - DANNY ESPINOSA - 31.5%
- #24 - JASON KIPNIS - 31.7%
- #25 - MIGUEL SANO - 33.3%
- #26 - WILIN ROSARIO - 30.8%
- #27 - CHRIS CARTER - 21.0% (37.7%)
- #28 - HANK CONGER - 30.2%
- #29 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 29.0%
- #30 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 45.4%
- #31 - DEE GORDON - 27.1%
- #32 - JEAN SEGURA - 22.2% (52.4%)
- #33 - MATT DOMINGUEZ - 23.4% (62.9%)
- #34 - JAFF DECKER - 28.6%
- #35 - BILLY HAMILTON - 20.8%
- #36 - YONDER ALONSO - 27.3%
- #37 - TONY SANCHEZ - 19.4% (54.9%)
- #38 - JERRY SANDS - 26.4%
- #39 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 27.1% (60.8%)
- #40 - CARLOS PEREZ - 31.7%
- #41 - TRAYVON ROBINSON - 23.7%
- #42 - J.P. ARENCIBIA - 29.1%
- #43 - JOSH SALE - 25%
- #44 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 20.8% (37.7%)
- #45 - JOSE IGLESIAS - 31.9%
- #46 - NICK CASTELLANOS - 28.0%
- #47 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 25.0% (45.5%)
- #48 - CHRISTIAN COLON - 19.1% (37.2%)
- #49 - TRAVIS d'ARNAUD - 33.9%
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+1
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Feb 5, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
+1
the fact that either arenado or hak-ju lee won’t make the list is pretty disappointing. there is no reason they both shouldn’t be on the list when compared to the last 10 names. read sickels’ summary in his book – he really likes arenado and for good reason. the anti-1B bias (if that is even where arenado ends up) on this site just sucks.
Won't make what list?
The overall top 100? Hard to say how that will turn out at this point. The complaint about 1B bias…I don’t know what to tell you. Do you not believe that players at 1B have to hit a ton more than players at more valuable defensive positions? Do you not believe in positional adjustments? I’ve seen you make comments in passing, but I don’t recall you ever really fleshing out your reasons why you see it as such a problem.
http://bullpenbanter.com
ok, here goes
first off, i am talking about the overall top 100 community list. if lee and arenado don’t make the top 50 hitters, which one of them won’t, i think that is a pretty big oversight by the community. i personally don’t see how josh sale, michael choice, j.p. arencibia, trayvon robinson, and even carlos perez (who i like alot for his plate discipline and catching skills, not so much on the power side) make the list before arenado and lee.
having read john’s book for the first time this year (in particular the intro), i have come to realize that he and i have a similar philosophy in evaluating/rating prospects. i definitely read the scouting reports, but the actual numbers matter alot to me as well. thus far in his career (576 ABs), he has hit 56 doubles, which portends well for his future power potential. in the scouting reports i have read, everyone seems high on his power and think he could easily hit mid 20’s in the majors (only 13 guys did that in 2010 in the majors — and one was a catcher — mike napoli). that is more than enough at the 1B position in the majors — that is if he isn’t able to stay at 3B, which i believe is still an open question based on what i have read. if he does, that would only increase, not decrease, his value and his ultimate placement on the top 100.
i am the first to admit that he does have some warts — primarily not walking enough, but this is offset by his elite contact rate (which was 86%). john and i agree that we would like to see more walks, but he is ONLY 19 and has time to improve that area of his game. what he has done thus far in his career is very impressive and should be rewarded over guys who only have scouting reports next to their name or who haven’t performed as well as he has.
now, turning to the 1B issue. i agree that 1B have to hit a lot more than players at more valuable defensive positions and i believe in positional adjustments. i also believe though that there are many of you on this site that think that a 1B has to hit 30+ homers to be a viable prospect. i just think that is going too far down the “1B have to hit more/positional adjustment spectrum” — to me, it is an overreaction. Last year, only 9 1B hit more than 30 homers in the MLB. i think we have to realize as a community that holding up 1B prospects to a 30 homer standard is just not realistic — there just aren’t that many guys capable of putting up that elite power. arenado hitting in the mid-20’s is good enough for me with the high BA and RBI production that will come along with it — that is a top 10 to 12 1B in the majors. i think we sometimes need to take a step back and reward the future above-average MLB 1B rather than a guy who is all scouting reports or who just so happens to play a more valuable defensive position, but hasn’t done very much with the bat.
What does one of them not making the top 50 hitters
have to do with the overall top 100 list? I mean it’s possible we end up with an exact 50/50 split of pitchers and hitters on the overall list, but I doubt it.
As for who’s on the list and who isn’t, that’s just the way it goes. There are four or five names already on the list I don’t care for, only two or three names on the poll this round I like, and maybe half of the testers/rotation players I like. With such a large group of people here with varying philosophies…it happens.
How are we defining “above average MLB 1B”? Using wOBA what are we talking here: .360 wOBA, .370 wOBA? In 2010, 11 1B posted a wOBA over .360, with Daric Barton just missing at .359, if we raise the bar to .370 only 9 1B make the cut. Let’s go with .359 as the cutoff, as Barton adds another player to the mix without the 30HR power you claim people here are demanding from a 1B. That gives us three players with less than 30 HR totals in the “above average” category, Barton with 10, Billy Butler with 15, and Aubrey Huff with 26. This group has a large variance in batting average(Teixeira at .256 to MCab at .328), K/AB%(used for simplicity sake from fangraphs, Butler at 13.1% to Dunn at 35.7%) and SLG%(Barton at .405 to MCab at .622). One constant with all these hitters? They all walk in at least 9.5% of their PA’s. Howard and Butler are the only ones to post walk rates lower than 11.4%, with seven of the twelve players posting walk rates of 13.1% or better.
Billy Butler is a decent example of how a guy can be above average there without big time power, but his walk rates in the majors are better than what Arenado has been able to produce in the lower minors, not to mention Butler never walked less than 7.7% of the time at any stop in the minors. If Arenado ends up at 1B, he’ll either need 30+ HR pop or a drastic improvement in his walk rate(more than doubling it, likely) to qualify as an above average bat there. That’s a lot to ask of a player, let alone one that hasn’t faced advanced pitching at this point.
Thanks for explaining your side of the 1B argument. I certainly don’t agree, but I have better idea of where you’re coming from now.
http://bullpenbanter.com
i assumed we cut off the hitters at 50 and the pitchers at 50
and thus anyone not on those lists wouldn’t make it on the top 100 – seems reasonable, right? i haven’t participated in these lists before this year.
as for your comeback, i can see where you are coming from and you bring up a number of good points. arenado’s walk rate last year was 5%, but i think you are being fairly optimistic in your predictive capabilities if you assume someone can’t improve their walk rate by 4 or 5 percent. have you done a study as to whether that has happened in the past, and if so, how often? i haven’t, but it would be interesting to see how often that has taken place. i was merely pointing out that i think arenado has been consistently overlooked so far in the voting process. only time will tell if he can improve the walk rate — i am cautiously optimistic. i am willing to believe he is still young enough and with a solid enough swing to figure things out. i don’t think it is beyond the realm of possibility that arenado ends up with a wOBA in the range of an above average first baseman.
I can see why you thought we’d only go to 50, though we’ve seen such large runs one way or the other it wouldn’t provide for a very accurate list if we just took 50 hitters and 50 pitchers. I believe in the beginning we said we were going to 75 on each list, then 100 on the combined, but I could be off on that. Anyway, that part is beside the point really.
I never said Arenado couldn’t improve upon his walk rate, just that it’s not a small improvement to be in the range of those guys. To reach the lowest end of the group of players I used in my example, he has to double his Sally League walk rate, except he’d have to do that against MLB pitchers. Even if he walked at a 9.6% clip this year, I wouldn’t project him to walk that much at the MLB level, the talent level is too different. Billy Butler walked in 15.4% of his PA’s in AAA and his 10.2% in 2010 was his highest at the MLB level. Arenado’s approach could also be one that lends itself to lower walk totals because of his contact ability. I’m not saying he’s Josh Vitters, because according to BA Arenado realizes he needs to walk more often. Whether that comes to pass or not is yet to be seen.
I’m also not sure he’s really been overlooked. There are legitimate concerns with him regarding defensive position and how his bat plays. There just aren’t any surefire guys left at this point. Your original comment seemed more like a statement of fact that he could be an above average bat at 1B. Your second comment is more appropriate in my mind. I can buy the second argument, but shiny numbers in Low A(in a hitters park no less, check his splits at minorleaguebaseball.com) aren’t enough to make it more than that possibility at this point for me.
http://bullpenbanter.com
gatling – it has been good chatting back and forth on this. i think the one area you are not focusing on enough is that arenado was one of the younger players in the Sally this year and i think that makes his numbers stand out even more. i always hear you and the bullpen banter guys talking about age relative to league, so that has to factor in to his performance thus far and the likelihood that he could improve his walk rate against higher level competition as he catches up in age.
Not necessarily
I don’t put as much weight into ARL as many people do, I’ve had an untold number of discussions about that with casejud here. He was young for the league but not insanely so. I’m also not as enamored with his performance, as most of it was fueled by his home park which is very hitter friendly. I’m not sure his age is a point in his favor when it comes to improving the walk rate, being so contact oriented from the start could make it harder for him to start taking pitches as he moves up.
Good chatting with you as well. We’ll see in a few years who was on the right side of this debate.
http://bullpenbanter.com
We sure have Buddy
. . . you holdin’ up ok in the brizzard or whatever. Got your internet back at least. Thats good!
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
bLIZZARD
not sure what a “brizzard” is lol
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Yeah
holding out ok here. Didn’t end up losing power or anything, which was the big worry with the ice that came in Tuesday and Wednesday. The snow is just an annoyance. The weak, intermittent internet signal was actually the worst thing of all, lol.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I feel you
I feel quite weird when our internet goes out – hate it. Where you live again? I forgot. I live in Seattle. we had a bit of snow here this year too but, nothing tragic.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
LG vs Gat
Despite the fact that Gatling and I almost NEVER see eye to eye, it isn’t going to stop me from chiming in with my couple cents. . .
Leave it to Gatling to put more significance in the fact that Arenado played in a hitters park (he hit about the same amount of 2bs and homers on the road, just less singles- why doesn’t a bullshit stat like BABIP come into play here?) than the fact that he was a 19 year old, who was a good hitter, in full-season ball.
Also I’d love to add . . . who gives a rats ass about walks? Arenado is in a rich, and long tradition of outstanding ballplayers who sting liners and dont walk a lot. Being a 19 year old with an advanced bat gives him a HUUGE leg up and developing some skills in that regard and, even if he doesn’t – who cares. I can name 100 All-Stars who do not, or have not, cared a bit about walking.
People on here used to talk shit about Robinson Cano, of all people, so that’ll give you an idea about how morbidly obsessed with walks some of the fine folks around here are. Chalk it up to the WARping of the mind, I guess.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Oh casejud...
Arenado’s splits:
.358/.393/.604 at home
.258/.278/.435 on the road
8 fewer XBH’s on the road in one fewer AB
ISO of .246 at home, .177 on the road
With minorleaguesplits.com no longer available, there isn’t anyway to know if BABIP played a role in the differences or not, though even if we did it wouldn’t matter one bit to you.
As far as walks go…well, let’s look at some other numbers. Of the top 70 hitters by wOBA in 2010, only 17 players had walk rates below 9%-about a quarter of the players. Three players out of 70 had a walk rate below 6%, and only one player(Delmon Young) had a walk rate lower than the 4.8% Arenado posted this year. Can Arenado(and other players like him) be a valuable hitter without taking a good number of walks? Sure, it’s just much harder to do so.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I WOULD care!
I look at home/road splits all the time Gat. Its just obvios, to me that, Aenadoue ability may not have been his .350 average at home, nor his .250 one at home. Like, maybe, its . . . possible? That his ability is somewhere in the middle? I dont think saying that “most his performance was fuled by his home record” is exactly fair.
By the way, even if you had minorleaguesplits numbers (a site that I liked and used b ythe way) you still wouldn’t know exactly, or how much luck was involved in his hitting record. You only think you would.
Also wOBA is just one of many stats that evealuates offense and I believe the stat it\sel loves walks, if you know what I mean. Right?
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
I appologize
My spelling was so bad above that Im just going to send myself to the corner and re-type the whole thing….
I look at home/road splits all the time Gat. Its just obvious,to me that Arenado’s ability may not have been his .350 average at home, nor his .250 on the road. Like, maybe, its . . . possible that his ability is somewhere in the middle? I dont think saying that "most his performance was fueled by his home record" is exactly fair.
By the way, even if you had minorleaguesplits numbers (a site that I liked and used, by the way) you still wouldn’t know exactly, or how much, luck was involved in his hitting record. You only think you would.
Also wOBA is just one of many stats that evealuates offense and I believe the stat itself loves walks, if you know what I mean. Right?
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Without minorleaguesplits, we don’t know if there was what difference there was in his BABIP at home and on the road. Having the BABIP splits wouldn’t definitively prove anything, but without them it’s a completely uneducated guess vs. a slightly more educated one with the splits.
As for wOBA, I don’t believe saying “it loves walks” is very accurate at all. It’s too late to dive into the whole thing here, but I’d suggest you read up on it a bit more based on that statement.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Well, I agree with that
It IS too late. I’m not sure I’m interested enough in wOBA to “read up” on it but, maybe. I don’t actually like offensive stats that include all of a players offensive contribution that much. I prefer to look at his OBP, Average, Total bases and look at the whole picture that way.
I do find WARs offensive totals to be somewhat biased towards players who walk and I find that it distorts peoples outloook on offense on this site. I know that getting guys on the sacks is a fundamentally important aspect of the game but, so is moving runners along home, and both deserve thier proper due when looking at the entirety of offense. I think walks are overrated somewhat in most attempts to add all of offense together. This after years and years of them being UNDER-appreciated, of course, but still.
We’ll talk about it later Man. G’night.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
+1
I’m giving up the Chris Nelson crusade for now. Lee is actually #3 for me right now behind Nelson and Beltre, but it’s likely this comes down to Lee and Arenado, and I greatly prefer Lee. Might as well vote for him now.
http://bullpenbanter.com
+1
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 5, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Twiitter: @gobroks
Blog: GMPotential.blogspot
by Gobroks on Feb 6, 2011 12:08 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Michael Choice
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 5, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
whoops
my bad, missed that he’s already on the list
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 5, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Randall Grichuk
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 5, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Research Fun
In the vein of the Arenado discussion above I thought I’d look at see just how good 19 year olds who played in the Sally League over the years have done, since say, 1992 (when they often started keeping track of OBP). My criterion is this: The player was 19 years old AND a good player in the league. Arenado obviously qualifies but, I’m not going to include a guy who had a .235 OBP or anything. Let’s say guys with an OPS over .800 ok, or close? Arenado was at .858
Lets see what we find, shall we?
1992- Felipe Crespo .781, Cliff Floyd .874
1993- Darek Jeter .770, all-stars Jason Kendal .677, and Magglio Ordonez .614
1994- Tom Evans .830, Scott Rolen .832, all-star Richie Sexson .756
1995- Russell Branyan .860, Jaun Encarnacion .822, Ron Wright .849, all-star Carlos Lee was at .614
1996- Mike Whitlock .862
1997 – Glenn Williams .809, solid major leaguer Joe Crede .689 and Christain Guzman .665
1998- Alex Escobar .977, Vernon Wells .774, Jason Werth .751
1999 – Matt Holliday .785, Felipe Lopez .772
2000- Hank Blalock .801, Jose Castillo .826, Josh Hamilton .823, solid big leaguer Brandon Phillips .684
2001- Kelly Johnson .918, Nate McLouth .836
2002- Robinson Cano .767, Justin Huber .878, David Wright .768
2003- Brian McCann .791, Hanley Ramirez .730
2004- Matt Kemp .829, Lastings Milledge .982, Ian Stewart .992
2005 – Mike Carp .834, Travis Denker .973
I stopped here because we begin to have players like Mat Gamel, Neil Walker, Ian Desmond, etc – who’s careers haven’t exactly “happened” yet, to be evaluated.
I suppose people will see what they want to see – If he doesnt make it as a 3b he could, possibly end up like Mike Carp, or Ron Wright. If he gets injured he could end up like Alex Escobar but, as a young hitter, he’s also in the same ballpark of ability as Matt Kemp, David Wright, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, Vernon Wells, guys like that.
Now go and do this excercise with prospect 31 Dee Gordon or, prospect 41 Trayvon Robinson. Adjust for defensive position if you want but, the comparable players aren’t going to be NEARLY as good.
Age relative to league is not a “bias” or a “preference”, its as fundamental to the game as the difference between a guy hitting .355 and one hitting .212.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Lets do Dee Gordon, shall we?
This one is a little more complicted, to be fairto Dee. Because much of Dee’s value is tied to his defense I wont compare to stiffs who play 1b, and hit like Dee. I’ll try 1) 22 year olds, because that is the main point of this 2) Who projected to have some defensive value say, a Ss, 2b, 3b, Cf, or C 3) Had an OPS of over .700 but under .750 – Dee was at .687
you know why this one is harder to do? Because, unlike 19 year old ballplayers in the Sally – who often become major leaguers and/or all-stars – as you can see above.
22 year olds who are even GOOD at AA more often dont turn out to be anything as a major leaguer. Ill try though . . . I’ll only mention the ones who make the big leagues, a huge break for Dee Gordon.
1993 – Doug Glanville, Tyler Houston
1995 – Homer Bush
1997- Gary Matthews Jr
1998 – Chris Woodward
1999- Ben Broussard
2000 – Jared Sandberg, Jason Smith
2001- Jorge Piedra
2002- Bernie Castro, Gabe Gross
2003- Reggie Abercrombie, Freddie Guzman, Rey Olmedo, Jason Repko
Wow, I had no idea it was this bad. Nobody, and I do mean NO-BODY who hit like Dee Gordon did, at his age, in the Southern League turned out to have ANY kind of career.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
Still fun to look at similar players . .
. . .plus, its not news to the folks who made him the 31st best position prospect in the game today. i thought it was interesting. Even I would have thought there would be a player or two with Dee’s profile who became something but, unless you think Ben Broussard or Gary Matthews were actually similar, you see a whole bunch of guys like Rey Olmedo, Freddy Guzman, and Bernie Castro.
Its probably my bad, ack but, I’m actually somewhat SHOCKED by the level of support for the guy. we are talking about a guy who is way worse of a hitting prospect than Alcides Escobar.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
the only players on that list who come close to his athleticism and speed
are Mathews and Abercrombie, and they are both OFers….
Hmmm
I think Freddy Guzman was a hell of an ethlete – who also couldn’t hit very well.
Bernie Castro was as well. He stole over 50 bases 3 times in the minors. So, you are incorrect there. Guzman stole 90, 70, and 60 bases.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson
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