Humbly Seeking Trade Advice
by Jaeti on Feb 24, 2011 1:00 AM EST
Email
PrintI tried to resist posting a fantasy question, but I'm just desperate for some input here.
The scenario: I trade Hellickson & Feliz and receive Halladay.
We keep our entire rosters year to year and there are no salaries. My team is good. Right now my SPs on roster are Verlander, Liriano, Nolasco, Bumgarner, Baker, Cecil, Vazquez, Jaime Garcia, Bud Norris. My offense is very good; it's pitching that's held me back the past couple of years (only acquired Verlander late last year, in the same deal with Hellickson). I'll still be competitive in SV if I trade Feliz (assuming he doesn't end up in the rotation, which is one reason I'm hesitant to deal him, but also nervous about keeping him and watching him get jerked around a bit). With Halladay, I could very well win this year. I could also win without him and hang onto the upside. I'm confused at the moment.
One other possible tweak. I might be able to engineer a swap of my #8 pick in our prospect draft for his #5 pick. With the state of our league, getting up to #5 would guarantee me one of Harper/Trout/Hosmer/Teheran/Myers, as opposed to a bit of a drop-off after the top 5 (relative to what's available in our league, that is -- no Montero, Brown, Chapman, among others).
All opinions are welcomed. I'm torn. Thanks in advance.
22 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would keep Helly and Feliz
I rank them as your 2nd and 3rd best pitchers so I wouldn’t give up the combination of quantity and youth in a keeper format…..plus I’m not too crazy about a lot of your other starters so I would want to hold on to as many of my young guys going forward.
As for the draft picks I don’t see it as a big deal…..you prefer the top 5 but it also sounds like Belt, Freeman, Pineda, Moore and maybe even Moustakas might be available so I might actually prefer to take a guy like Taillon or Machado if I knew I wasn’t going to get Harper or Trout.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Questions
How many teams are in this league and what is the scoring format?
12 teams, 6x6 roto
Pitching cats are W, SV, K, ERA WHIP, CG — and, for the record, I’m not chasing Halladay’s complete games. I lobby yearly to have that stat changed but for some reason it never happens. So while in theory he would be a big boost there, that’s not a factor I’m weighing. It’s incidental.
It is close
But, in a 12-team league I would do it. Top players are that much more valuable when solid replacement level players are available. If this were a very deep 16 team league or a 20+ team league I would not do this trade.
Hellickson and Feliz
In a dyanasty league, I don’t think it should even be a question.
Well, it's Halladay
So it’s at least worth pondering a little bit. In general I’m ecstatic to swap closers for similar-caliber starters/position players whenever I can. And if Hellickson had a full season under his belt with good results, I probably wouldn’t consider it. But, in the end, I think I agree with you. There probably just isn’t enough elite-level Doc left to justify trading the combined 15+ years of potential excellence with the other two.
The advice you've gotten here so far is awful.
You’re in a 12-team league. That means the floor for available players is very high, especially in a dynasty league where people are wont to hoard prospects. That means the elite players are that much more valuable. When you can get a guy that’s 80% of Jeremy Hellickson freely on the wire, that makes Hellickson less valuable to have around. Feliz is most likely staying a closer, which is less valuable the more categories you add to your league.
You’re also counting complete games as a category. Halladay is easily the best pitcher in baseball in this regard, and will complete more games than most entire teams. He’ll dominate five of your six pitching categories.
This is exactly the type of move you want to make if you’re ready to win now. I’d argue it’s the right trade for any team to make, regardless of league standing. Halladay’s probably got several more years of being the best pitcher in baseball, and if you can trade two guys that aren’t integral to your team to get the best of the best of the best, you do that every time.
agreed
I also think that Hellickson is being overvalued in fantasy circles. He’s a good pitcher and a great prospect, but a good bit of his value is in his high floor, not his ceiling. He’s as close to a sure thing as you can find to fill a middle of the rotation spot, but for fantasy rosters, that makes him a middle to back end staffer (in a 10-12 team league).
Trading a closer and a guy who can’t match the upside of a Halladay or Verlander (not to mention the fact that he’s an unestablished rookie), for Halladay? I’d do it in a heartbeat.
a good bit of his value is in his high floor, not his ceiling
A fair point, which I largely agree with. But he’s one of those guys that I have a feeling will come pretty close to his ceiling and be more than merely solid (like I feel with, say, Mike Minor). So that’s part of the trouble with parting with him.
By the way, thanks everyone for the input. Again, I realize it’s only so interesting to talk about someone else’s fantasy team. I guess it’s a bit more interesting when someone’s agonizing over big names and not the likes of Nate McClouth or Yunel Escobar.
You guys
have articulated the other side of the debate in my head (granting, of course, that you see no need for debate whatsoever; but it’s my team, so indulge me, please). What gives me pause is the assumption that Halladay can maintain his 2008-10 dominance for another few years. He is or is very nearly the best in baseball, so of course that’s possible. But he’s aging. No way around it.
I may lose everyone here, since after all this is my fantasy team we’re talking about. But I decided to look up some numbers (assuming I didn’t screw up the Baseball-Reference index tool). Halladay’s going into his age-34 season…
Since 1947, age-34 pitchers have a total of 38 seasons of 4+ WAR. Age-35 guys have 33 such seasons, age-36 has 28, and age-37 has 21 seasons. 4+ WAR is obviously good, but it doesn’t approach how good Halladay has been, and it isn’t “best pitcher in baseball good.” So, again since 1947…
5+ WAR seasons: age-34 (23), age-35 (20), age-36 (15), age-37 (10)
6+ WAR seasons: age-34 (11), age-35 (13), age-36 (8), age-37 (8)
I’m not sure it’s reasonable to expect him to continue to be as good or almost as good as he has been. That doesn’t really refute the argument of trying to win with him this year (and with luck beyond this year), but if I make the trade and he’s human from here on out, I might have some regrets. One guy aging doesn’t automatically make the younger guys better in 2-4 years. I get all of that. But I don’t think I can make the trade assuming I have a top-5 pitcher for the next 2-4 years. In which case maybe this should spur into seeing who else I can get for a Helly/Feliz package.
Yeah, didn't mean to lump you in with the other commenters. You were the sole voice of reason up to that point.
I think I read the “in a dynasty league, it shouldn’t even be a question” comment, and mah head asploded.
I agree
Everything you say is 100%. The only way I dont do this deal is if Im loaded with guys that are a couple years away and dont see myself competing.
Also. factor in that its really Helly+Fel for Doc + Replacement player. In most leagues there are always guys (Trout and Belt for example) who dont get drafted and break out during the year. This is a spot you can use to grab one of them.
This is the reason I try to make every trade I'm involved in a 2-for-1, 3-for-2 type of trade.
It’s good to be king of the waiver wire.
Absolutely with you here
I hardly ever make a trade without clearing a roster spot, as well. But, without getting into the minutiae of our league settings, despite only being 12 teams, the replacement player isn’t going to be anyone who’s likely to be a worthwhile addition stat-wise, and certainly not as far as matching the allure/potential of Hellboy or Feliz.
Were this May 25th instead of Feb. 25th, that might be different. Then I might make the trade and grab, say, Ross Detwiler if he’s actually pitched well for six weeks. But that’s different than making the trade and picking up Detwiler right now when he has yet to show anything.
Of course, if on May 25th Feliz is in the bullpen and Helly’s sporting a 4.60 ERA, there’s surely no getting Halladay then.
Really good points but here are a couple of other considerations
1. Verlander was only recently acquired and that improvement could mean he wins this year anyway so there’s less urgency to deal. From a keeper perspective, Hellickson and Feliz have arguably the upside of Liriano and Nolasco, and considerably more than any two of his young guys so giving up 2 for 1 is less appealing.
2. Hellickson may not have ace upside but Feliz does! Saying that Feliz “is most likely staying a closer” is subjective; the real odds are 50/50 and since Texas is already stretching him out this spring, you have to believe Feliz will be given every opportunity to become that ace that Jaeti needs.
imo the choice comes down to how much faith you have in Feliz or how much you fear “watching him get jerked around a bit”. For me, I think we’ve all learned from the Joba experiments and I believe that Texas will let his success or failure dictate his role any given year and let him stick to it.
I hope that was reasonable enough to keep your head from asploding lol
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
You're asking the wrong question
The reason you get guys like Hellickson is in hopes they become what Halladay is, and on a good roster he is clearly the answer to a question that is essentially Halladay vs Hellickson. Don’t worry about adding to a strength if you’re trying to win a league. And so what if you’re worried about his value decreasing; it’s sky-high right now, and you’re being offered the low-end version for him, i.e. if he follows trends of other greats in their mid-30’s.
The question you should be asking is what you could get for Halladay right now. You probably couldn’t pull the wool over the eyes of many here, but in your league there’s a patsy just waiting to overpay for the trepidations you’re currently having. Find him, exploit him.
Thought about this too
But the talent in the league is distributed so that the top 5-6 teams are fairly strong, and the bottom 6 or so are consistently weak. There’s a pretty clear line of demarcation. As such, if I got Halladay I wouldn’t deal him to one of the contending teams (who possess essentially every potential successor to the title “best pitcher in baseball,” and so wouldn’t feel the need to acquire Halladay anyway), and the (perpetually) rebuilding teams wouldn’t trade for him at this stage of his career.
The one notable exception is a guy who has Strasburg and Wainwright, but alas…
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
